Weekly Report 21st January 2012

8/3/2019 Weekly Report 21st January 2012

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January 21, 2012

For Private Circulation Only | Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP00000154 6 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946 1

TTTTTechnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |

Bulls ride on hope of a favorable credit policy

Sensex (16739) / Nifty (5049)

Last week, indices had closed near the 61.8% Fibonacci

retracement level of the fall from 17004 to 15135 / 51007004 to 15135 / 51007004 to 15135 / 51007004 to 15135 / 51007004 to 15135 / 5100 to

45314531453145314531 i.e. 16290 / 488116290 / 488116290 / 488116290 / 488116290 / 4881 mark. This week, indices opened on a

quiet note and maintained their upward trend throughout the

week. As stated in our previous report, the impact of positive

crossover in weekly momentum oscillators was seen after

crossing 16421 / 492016421 / 492016421 / 492016421 / 492016421 / 4920 level. Markets witnessed a

strong intra - week rally and moved towards the expected level

of 17004 / 510017004 / 510017004 / 510017004 / 510017004 / 5100 and have closed marginally below it. On the

sectoral front, the Realty, Oil & Gas and Banking sectors

contributed heavily to the weeks up move, whereas FMCG

counters remained under marginal pressure. The Sensex ended

with a gain of 3.62%, while the Nifty gained 3.75% vis-à-vis

the previous week.

Pattern Formation

The 20-week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is placed

at 16504 / 495716504 / 495716504 / 495716504 / 495716504 / 4957 level. We are witnessing a positive crossover on weekly "RSI -

Smoothened" oscillator.

Indices are nearing a "Downward Sloping Trend Line" drawn

by joining July 8, 2011, weekly high of 19132 / 574019132 / 574019132 / 574019132 / 574019132 / 5740 and

October 28, 2011, weekly high of 17908 / 540017908 / 540017908 / 540017908 / 540017908 / 5400.

The 200-day SMA is placed at 17384 / 522017384 / 522017384 / 522017384 / 522017384 / 5220 level.

The daily chart indicates formation of "Gravestone Doji"

Japanese candlestick pattern.

Future Outlook

This week indices have rallied significantly after crossing

16421 / 492016421 / 492016421 / 492016421 / 492016421 / 4920 level and have managed to close almost at the

highest point of the week. Markets are now nearing strong

resistance level of 17004 / 510017004 / 510017004 / 510017004 / 510017004 / 5100. Also, as mentioned above,

the "Gravestone Doji" candlestick pattern indicates the possibility

of a profit booking or a consolidation. We advise traders to

book profits in individual counters and stay light on positions.

Going forward, if indices sustain below 16572 / 499116572 / 499116572 / 499116572 / 499116572 / 4991 level,

then indices are likely to correct towards 16384 - 16116 /16384 - 16116 /16384 - 16116 /16384 - 16116 /16384 - 16116 /

4931 - 48404931 - 48404931 - 48404931 - 48404931 - 4840 levels. Conversely, indices have closed convincingly

above the 20-week EMA placed at 16504 / 495716504 / 495716504 / 495716504 / 495716504 / 4957 level. Also,

we are observing a positive crossover on weekly "RSI -

Smoothened" oscillator. Therefore, after a healthy correction orconsolidation, if indices manage to break and sustain above

17004 / 510017004 / 510017004 / 510017004 / 510017004 / 5100, then we may witness a strong upside

momentum, which can push indices to test 200-day SMA level

of 17384 / 522017384 / 522017384 / 522017384 / 522017384 / 5220 level. In the coming week, traders are advised

to stay cautious as volatility is likely to increase on account of

the RBI's monetary policy and derivative expiry.

Source: Falcon

Exhibit 1: Sensex weekly chart

Source: Falcon

Exhibit 2: Sensex daily chart

Gravestone Doji



January 21, 2012


TTTTTechnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |

Technical Research Team

Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty 50 Stocks

SENSEX

NIFTY

BANKNIFTY

ACC

AMBUJACEM

AXISBANK

BAJAJ-AUTO

BHARTIARTL

BHEL

BPCL

CAIRN

CIPLA

DLFDRREDDY

GAIL

HCLTECH

HDFC

HDFCBANK

HEROHONDA

HINDALCO

HINDUNILVR

ICICIBANK

IDFC

INFOSYSTCH

ITC

JINDALSTELJPASSOCIAT

KOTAKBANK

LT

M&M

MARUTI

NTPC

ONGC

PNB

POWERGRID

RANBAXY

RCOM

RELCAPITAL

RELIANCE

RELINFRA

RPOWER

SAIL

SBIN

SESAGOA

SIEMENS

STER

SUNPHARMA

SUZLON

TATAMOTORS

TATAPOWER

TATASTEEL

TCS

WIPRO

SCRIPS17,273 17,006 16,522 16,255 15,771

5,217 5,133 4,980 4,896 4,743

10,043 9,780 9,297 9,034 8,551

1,218 1,184 1,145 1,111 1,071

170 164 157 151 143

1,085 1,047 982 944 879

1,682 1,622 1,515 1,454 1,347

360 351 343 334 326

296 285 274 263 252

608 584 541 517 474

363 355 344 335 324

351 344 337 330 322

233 224 207 198 1821,739 1,692 1,657 1,610 1,575

385 379 369 363 354

453 435 415 398 378

710 701 686 677 662

516 503 481 468 446

2,130 2,038 1,904 1,813 1,678

157 151 140 134 123

406 399 392 384 377

908 875 819 786 729

142 131 119 108 96

2,709 2,649 2,613 2,552 2,516

216 208 204 197 193

570 552 522 505 47575 71 65 61 54

525 510 483 468 441

1,385 1,330 1,238 1,183 1,091

735 696 671 632 607

1,248 1,176 1,073 1,001 898

185 180 171 165 156

292 284 270 261 247

1,013 981 923 891 833

105 103 101 99 97

489 479 464 453 438

98 94 90 86 81

360 342 316 298 273

857 825 768 736 679

555 518 459 421 362

99 95 91 87 82

98 95 92 89 86

2,071 2,002 1,875 1,806 1,679

204 197 189 181 173

790 772 744 726 698

127 121 111 105 95

557 543 521 507 486

27 26 24 23 21

232 226 215 208 197

114 109 102 98 91

471 454 431 414 391

1,163 1,121 1,083 1,042 1,004

439 427 412 399 385

R2R2R2R2R2 R1R1R1R1R1 PIV PIV PIV PIV PIV OOOOOTTTTT S1S1S1S1S1 S2S2S2S2S2



January 21, 2012


Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |

Time to book some profits in long positions but don't short

Nifty spot closed at 5048.605048.605048.605048.605048.60 this week, against a close of 48664866486648664866 last week. The Put-Call Ratio increased from 1.261.261.261.261.26 to 1.601.601.601.601.60 levels and

the annualized Cost of Carry is negative 1.08%1.08%1.08%1.08%1.08%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 23.94%23.94%23.94%23.94%23.94%.

Put-Call Ratio Analysis Implied Volatility Analysis

PCR-OI has significantly increased from 1.26 to 1.60 levels in

last one week. Reason behind this was quite obvious the strong

upside in market which forced call writers to cover their positions

and put writers to become active. 5000 and 5100 strikes which

were having huge call positions, in last two trading session

have reduced substantial open interest while put writers have

become active in them. 4900 and 5000 puts have witnessed

selling pressure the most.

Implied Volatility (IV) for NIFTY has decreased substantially from

22.95% to 18.75% for current series at-the-money options.

Historical volatility (HV) is at 24.10% and that for BANKNIFTY

is trading at 36.49%. Liquid counters having very high HV are

PUNJLLOYD, ADANIENT, ESSAROIL, VIPIND and HDIL. Stocks

where HV are on lower side are DABUR, ABGSHIP,

SUNPHARMA, ASIANPAINT and CIPLA.

Nifty futures closed at a discount of 0.75 points against the

premium of 12.20 points to its spot. Next month future is trading

with premium of 28.95 points. Liquid counters where CoC is

high are RUCHISOYA, ABGSHIP, LITL, ADANIPORTS and

CROMPGREAV. Stocks with negative CoC are PUNJLLOYD,

AXISBANK, ASHOKLEY, HEROMOTOCO and ABB.

Total open interest of market has increased from ` 1,20,705/-

crores to ` 1,37,903/- crores. Stock futures open interest has

increased from ` 29,770/- crores to ` 33,118/- crores. Some of

the big names which added open interest are M&M, MARUTI,

GAIL, HDFCBANK and ITC. Open interest was shed in some

liquid counters like PUNJLLOYD, GITANJALI, JINDALSTEL,

CAIRN and PNB.

Open Interest Analysis Cost-of-Carry Analysis

Scrip : CAIRNScrip : CAIRNScrip : CAIRNScrip : CAIRNScrip : CAIRN CMP :CMP :CMP :CMP :CMP : ` ` ` ` ` 346.40346.40346.40346.40346.40 LLLLLot Size : 1000ot Size : 1000ot Size : 1000ot Size : 1000ot Size : 1000 Exercise Date (F & O) :Exercise Date (F & O) :Exercise Date (F & O) :Exercise Date (F & O) :Exercise Date (F & O) :

25th Jan, 2012

Expected Payoff View: Mildly Bullish

355.00

347.50

340.00

332.50

325.00

317.50

BEPBEPBEPBEPBEP::::: ` 337.50/-337.50/-337.50/-337.50/-337.50/-

Max. Risk:Max. Risk:Max. Risk:Max. Risk:Max. Risk: ` 2,500/- Max. PMax. PMax. PMax. PMax. Profit:rofit:rofit:rofit:rofit: Unlimited

If CAIRN closes on or above 340. If CAIRN continues to move below BEP.

NONONONONOTETETETETE::::: Profit can be booked before expiry if CAIRN moves in favorable direction.

Strategy: Long Put

Buy/SellBuy/SellBuy/SellBuy/SellBuy/Sell Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty ScripScripScripScripScrip StrikeStrikeStrikeStrikeStrike SeriesSeriesSeriesSeriesSeries OptionOptionOptionOptionOption Buy RateBuy RateBuy RateBuy RateBuy Rate

PPPPPricericericericerice TTTTTypeypeypeypeype ((((( ` ` ` ` ` )))))

BUY 1000 CAIRN 340 JAN PUT 2.50

Closing PClosing PClosing PClosing PClosing Pricericericericerice ExpectedExpectedExpectedExpectedExpected((((( ` ` ` ` ` ))))) PPPPProfit/Lrofit/Lrofit/Lrofit/Lrofit/Lossossossossoss

( ` 2.50)

( ` 2.50)

( ` 2.50)

` 5.00

` 12.50

` 20.00

Derivative Strategy



Weekly

Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

Ratings (Returns) :

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Vaibhav Agrawal VP-Research, Banking [email protected]

Shailesh Kanani Infrastructure [email protected]

Bhavesh Chauhan Metals & Mining [email protected]

Sharan Lillaney Mid-cap [email protected]

V Srinivasan Research Associate (Cement, Power) [email protected]

Yaresh Kothari Research Associate (Automobile) [email protected]

Shrinivas Bhutda Research Associate (Banking) [email protected]

Sreekanth P.V.S Research Associate (FMCG, Media) [email protected]

Hemang Thaker Research Associate (Capital Goods) [email protected]

Nitin Arora Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate) [email protected]

Ankita Somani Research Associate (IT, Telecom) [email protected]

Varun Varma Research Associate (Banking) [email protected]

Saurabh Taparia Research Associate (Cement, Power) [email protected]

Technicals:

Shardul Kulkarni Sr. Technical Analyst [email protected]

Sameet Chavan Technical Analyst [email protected]

Sacchitanand Uttekar Technical Analyst [email protected]

Derivatives:

Siddarth Bhamre Head - Derivatives [email protected]

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Weekly Report 21st January 2012