WelcomeClimate change and resilience in

asset management

James HughesClimate + Resilience

Specialist

Who is with you today?

Glen McIntoshSenior Asset Management

Engineer

Kristin AikenSector Manager, Local

Government

Dr Brandy GriffinPrincipal Policy Advisor

Climate Change

James Hughes

Tonkin + Taylor

Climate change contextAnd the role of long term planning

Agenda • Background and context

• Climate risk and resilience

• Role of long term planning

Climate change -It is urgent

Data

“In a 1.5°C world, the projection for 2090 is that nearly 700 million people (9% of world population) will be exposed to extreme heat waves at least once every 20 years - but more than 2 billion people (28.2%) in a 2°C world” – IPCC (2018).

Climate change -Risks

Climate hazards

Global Risks

World Economic Forum: Global Risks Report 2020

Global losses (overall and insured)

Source: Munich Re

Infrastructure impacts

Is unprecedented the new normal?

• ICNZ: Mean annual loss of $150M 2013-2018

• What about uninsured?• Droughts alone cost

$720M in economic losses from 2007 to 2017

An increasing focus on climate change

Principles for long term planning

Principle 1: Factor climate risk into all decisions – using approaches and definitions that are simple and people buy into. Consider shocks and stressors.

Principle 2: Base decisions on evidence and current national guidance, supported by sound data and local knowledge

Principle 3: Cooperate and collaborate, and make sure roles & responsibilities are clear. Engage staff from all levels of the organisation

Principle 4: Prioritise stewardship / kaitiakitanga and precaution

Principle 5: Prioritise the most vulnerable

Principle 6: Long term, adaptive thinking

Principle 7: Consider actions with multiple benefits or which have ‘low-regrets’

Principles – for long term planning

“Human civilization is built on the premise that the level of the sea is stable, as indeed it has been for several thousand years”.

NY Times

Kristin Aiken

Sector Manager, Local Government

Climate change and the 2021 LTPs

Kristin Aitken, Local Government TeamOffice of the Auditor-General

• Role of the auditor, our LTP audit opinion

• Observations from our 2018 LTP audits

• Getting ready for your 2021 LTPs

• Office’s work programme: climate change and resilience, risk management

What I’ll cover

The role of audit

Our observations from the 2018 LTPs

Getting ready for 2021 LTPs

• What is your understanding of the expected effects of climate change and its impacts on council activities & communities?

• What effects and impacts are your council planning on disclosing in your 2021 LTP?

• What initiatives does your council have to collect local data and identify local impacts from climate change?

• How will you discuss climate change with your community?

• What are the challenges in discussing climate change and risk more generally with your elected members?

Some questions to consider

Our work programme – climate change and resilience, risk management

Photo by Kimberley Collins from Flickr

James Hughes + Glen McIntosh

Tonkin + Taylor

Climate change considerationsWithin infrastructure strategies

Agenda • A strategic approach to climate change and resilience

• Infrastructure strategies

• Climate risk and adaptation

• Climate mitigation

• Maturity in climate change adaptation/mitigation

A strategic approach

1 Resilience framework and policy

2 Understand resilience gaps

3 Build knowledge & evidence base

4 Implement resilience initiatives

Overall vision and outcomes

sought

Alignment with:Infra Str

Spatial planCDEM Plan

Financial Stretc

Strategy for climate resilience

Infrastructure strategies

Infrastructure strategy

The infrastructure strategy must outline how the local authority intends to manage its infrastructure assets, taking into account the need to—

(e ) provide for the resilience of infrastructure assets by identifying and managing risks relating to natural hazards and by making appropriate financial provision for those risks

Infrastructure strategy

“The concept of resilience is wider than natural disasters and covers the capacity of public, private and civic sectors to withstand disruption, absorb disturbance, act effectively in a crisis, adapt to changing conditions, including climate change, and grow over time”

(National Infrastructure Unit)

Guidance

Factoring in climate risk

Climate risks to infrastructure

Principles for a risk-based approach

• Needs to be tailored to the context− National / district or regional risk assessment

− Sectoral risk assessment (eg water sector, agricultural sector)

− Industry / corporate risk assessment – TCFD

• Recognises the influence of uncertainty

• Uses agreed and simple definitions / approaches

• Must be transparent and repeatable – based on a robust framework

• Needs to involve all stakeholders and partners

• Must be cognisant of the level of granularity which is appropriate and achievable (lessons from NCCRA)

Risk Types: Physical and transition

Risk assessment process

Physical risksComponents of risk will vary, depending on context, data available,

and level of detail of assessment. Design is key.

Likelihood of failure

Consequence = criticality

Risk

Likelihood of hazard

Vulnerability of asset

Consequence = criticality

Risk

Combined likelihood of failure / damage

RISK OF ASSET or L.O.S FAILURE

RISK OF ASSET FAILURE DUE TO HAZARD

Multiple horizons

Pathways

Risk treatment (building resilience)• Infrastructure Strategies must identify most

likely scenarios and when key decisions need to be made

• Consider range of responses

• This may include, for example – new investment, managed retreat, changes to levels of service etc

• Consider level of certainty around assumptions

• Engagement with community & Elected Members – Providing them the evidence to make good decisions while recognising uncertainty

Avoid

Land use change

Managed Retreat

Mitigate

Infra solution

Improve emergency response planning

Transfer

Insurance option

Accept

Lower L.O.S

Improve emergency response planning

Enhanced comm

resilience

Climate change mitigation

“75% of infrastructure that will exist in 2050, hasn’t been built” (Basel)

• Councils role:

• Own organisation carbon (ops and capital)

• Community emissions

World Green Building Council, 2019

Maturity

Drivers for maturity• Complexity

• Scale and criticality

• Rate of change

Maturity indices - examples

Maturity for adaptation and mitigation

PolicyHuman resources

Networks and cooperationLeadership and governance

ADAPTATIONRisk and vulnerability assessment

Adaptation planningFunding and implementation

Monitoring and review

MITIGATIONBaseline inventory & target setting

Strategy development for emissions reduction

Funding and implementationMonitoring and review

MATURITY Starting out Making progress Developed Leading

RISK ASSESSMENT & ADAPTATION PLANNING

• There is no or limited understanding of infrastructure exposed to climate change.

• No understanding of risks to communities or to councils finances or reputation etc.

• Risk and vulnerability assessment framework developed and commenced.

• Risk and vulnerability assessments undertaken, high risks prioritised and options/pathways developed.

• Adaptation options are developed and implemented via appropriate channels/mechanisms.

• Risks reviewed and updated regularly.

• Community are aware and engaged in decision- making, within a robust and transparent process.

Example

Setting target maturity?

Setting target maturity?

Rate of change

Co

mp

lexi

ty o

f re

spo

nse

Mitigation

Climate change adaptation

Sea level rise adaptation

Closing comments

Closing comments -in practice

• Understand relevant climate drivers and natural hazards, what may be exposed and what risks this may present to infrastructure networks.

• Clarify roles and responsibilities.

• Review adaptation/resilience measures that you are already working on

• Integrate risk assessments with asset management planning and CDEM as the base for developing CC resilience measures.

• Become fluent in the language of carbon!

Greta Thunberg

Thank you

Dr Brandy Griffin

Principal Policy Advisor Climate Change

Incorporating climate change into

Kāpiti’s 2021 LTP

Brandy Griffin, PhD

Principal Advisor – Climate Change

Council Resolutions

On 23 May 2019, Kāpiti Cost District Council resolved-

• To achieve carbon neutrality by 2025.

• That this council, noting that our communities are facing

increasingly significant and prohibitive costs to manage

the impacts of climate change:

– Declares a climate change emergency.

• That climate crisis issues in general … be considered as

part of all future decision making, reports and

recommendations to Council.

Climate Change

Work Programme

Central government

Regional alignment

Local advocacy

Iwi partnership

Political & legal risks

Science

Land Information Memoranda

CEMARS

Operating principles

• Best practice

• Collaborative

• Consistent

• Transparent

Regional resources

Regionally consistent data

Consistency within Council

Asset

assessments

Natural

hazards

Other CC

assessmentsConsistent Data Gaps

Transport √ √ √ √

Water /

Wastewater√ √ In process √ Y

Stormwater √ √ In process √ Y

Waste √ √ In process √

PAOS √ TBD TBD TBD

Facilities /

PropertiesIn process TBD TBD TBD

Connected

CommunitiesN/A TBD TBD TBD

Transparency

Policy Work Programme

– Climate Change Strategy (working title)

– Development Management Strategy

– Coastal Strategy

– Stormwater Strategy

– Transport Strategy

– District Plan

Long Term Plan 2021

– Strategic context and

guidance

– Assumptions

– Activity Management Plans

– Infrastructure Strategy

– Financial Strategy

Next steps

• Best scenario(s)

• Further data required

• Decision making under uncertainty

• Council and community support

Q+A