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Sweden Re SCOR Sweden Re:s Nordic Life Insurance Conference October 13th 2017 WELCOME Svein Børre Solvang

WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

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Page 1: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

Sweden Re

SCOR Sweden Re:s Nordic Life Insurance ConferenceOctober 13th 2017

WELCOME

Svein Børre Solvang

Page 2: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

Sweden Re

Page 3: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

Sweden Re

Page 4: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

Sweden Re

SCOR Group, a global reinsurance company established in France in 1970, is organized around three divisions, which makes its strength

Treaty P&C Group Investment OfficeRisk Solutions

Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management

Specialty Lines Investment PartnersGlobal Product Lines

Asset under managementSCOR Business Solutions Global Distribution Solutions

Agriculture Engineering Credit & Surety

Marine & Energy

Aviation

Property treaties Motor Casualty treaties

Lloyd’s operations Strict B-to-B model 2.9bn of assets managed on behalf

of third-party investors at 30/06/17

€18.3bn of invested assets at 30/06/17

2.7% return on invested assets for H1 2017

ESG policy Optimizes Group capital allocation Limited risk appetite

ReMark Velogica

Rehalto

Financial Solutions Longevity

Life Personal Accid. Disability

Critical Illness Care solutions Medical

Page 5: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

Sweden Re

The SCOR Global Life Way

Clear risk appetite

Strict and consistent focus on biometric risks Strong ERM framework ensuring full alignment between growth,

profitability and solvency Retentions per life controlled with retrocession to manage volatility

Differentiating expertise

Thorough R&D work across 8 R&D centers worldwide Investment in people and tools to ensure long-term sustainability

of differentiating expertise Partnerships with industry-leading organizations and stakeholders

Deep client& risk focus

Market-facing, client-focused & performance-driven organization Investment in knowledge to develop innovative solutions Clear understanding of the risks with transparent communication

Tier 1 diversified global franchise

Strong leadership positions in Americas and EMEA Solid foundations in place in all key markets for controlled growth Complete offering of Risk Solutions, Financial & Longevity

Solutions and Distribution Solutions

Solid, healthy and performing in-force

book

Strong technical results and margin and significant value creation Consistent cash contribution to the Group Clear framework in place to manage and optimize the book

Efficient, innovative & inclusive

organization

Investment in technology to enhance digital offering and in new systems & tools to harness the power of data

Focus on talent management and leadership Continuous attention to efficiency

Page 6: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

Sweden Re

SCOR further enhances its Tier 1 positioning thanks to the perfect execution of “Optimal Dynamics”

Market Leader

Industry Trendsetter

Tools & Processes Developer

Independent Group

Global Player

Strong Technical

Profitability

1

Global Tier 1 reinsurer

All rating agencies give a positive assessment of SCOR’s current financial strength and capitalization, confirming its Tier 1 position

Stable outlook Stable outlook Stable outlook

AA- AA- A+ Aa3Stable outlook

Page 7: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

Sweden Re

SCOR almost triples its gross written premiums and doubles its shareholders’ equity over the last 10 years

4,85,8

6,4 6,77,6

9,510,3

11,3

13,4 13,8

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

3,6 3,43,9

4,3 4,44,8 5,0

5,76,3

6,7

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

▐ GWP in EUR billions (rounded) ▐ Shareholders’ equity in EUR billions (rounded)

+EUR 9bn since 2007

+EUR 3.1bn since 2007

Page 8: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

Sweden Re 8

SCOR Global Life, with an established franchise, is well positioned for the future

Tier 1 global franchisePresence in all key markets & strong leadership positions

Complete offering withstrict biometric focus

1) Includes Medical, Critical Illness, Disability and Long-Term Care2) As at end April 2017; excludes ReMark3) SCOR own estimates & research

▐ 2016 GWP – in EUR billions ▐ 2016 GWP – in EUR billions ▐ SCOR Global Life main locations and resources2)

Australia& NZ

Korea

France

UK/Ireland

Asia-Pacific

EMEA

Americas

7%

7%

11%

49%

8.2

13%

33%

54% US

1%

164

Asia-Pacific

335

EMEA355

Americas

Global product lines & central functions189

#2#1

#4

#1

Top3

#1

Top3Health1)

LifeProtection

FinancialSolutions

Longevity

14%

65%

8.2

79%

13%

8%

▐ SCOR Global Life competitive position3)

30 offices serving 80 countries

#1

Page 9: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

Sweden Re 9

Consumer journey SCOR Global Life’sautomated underwriting solution

Partnership with leading technology provider in Asia-Pacific

Strategic investment in health data aggregation platform

Consumers are ready for more engaging value propositions

Help clients simplify,improve or accelerate their

underwriting processes

Enhance underwritingIncrease consumer engagement Enable digital distribution

1) Source: 2016 ReMark Global Consumer Study – “You can’t always get what you want”http://remarkgroup.com/you-cant-always-get-what-you-want/Countries illustrated are China and USA

Develop innovativeofferings with increased consumer engagement

Consider

Discover

Select

Apply

Purchase

Monitor

Claim

Support clients in developing digital consumer journey

Investing in technology to enhance the value proposition and support clients with new business origination

64%

Willingness to share data from device with a Life insurer to get discount1) 77%

5-year exclusive partnership

Page 10: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

Sweden Re

The strength of the SCOR group’s strategy is recognized by industry experts 2014 2015

Denis Kessler: “Insurance Hall of Fame in 2014 by IIS”

Cat bond Atlas IX awarded as “Deal of the year 2014”

SCOR: “Reinsurance Company of the Year“

"Prize for Best Financial Operation -M&A" by the Club des Trente for Generali US acquisition

Denis Kessler is elected "Outstanding

Contributor of the year -Risk"

SCOR Investment Partners: “InstitutionalInvestor of the Year”

SCOR: “Best reinsurer in Argentina”

Kory Sorenson and Fields Wicker-Miurin, elected “Influential Women in Insurance”

SCOR Global Life: “Best Life reinsurer of the year”

Remark International: “Service Provider of the Year”

2016

SCOR: “Latin American Reinsurer of the Year”

SCOR Global Life: “North American Reinsurer of the Year”

SCOR Global Life: “Reinsurer of the Year 2016”

Kory Sorenson, Fields Wicker-Miurin, Vanessa Marquette, Marguerite Bérard-Andrieu and Ingrid Carlou, elected “Influential Women in Insurance”

SCOR: “Risk innovation of the year”

2017

SCOR: “Romanian Reinsurer of the Year”

SCOR: “Reinsurer of the Year”

Page 11: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

Sweden Re

Page 12: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

Sweden Re

Major Solvency II financial challenges which insurers are facing

1. Contract boundaries preventing future margins for being shown on balance sheet 2. Limit on deferred tax asset as tier 3 capital3. Risk margins are large percentage of net asset value4. Market risk (includes matching adjustment and volatility adjustment (static and dynamic)) is large5. Risk of ultimate forward rate being decreased6. Decrease in transitional benefit over time

Balance sheet

7. Market risk (size of stress)8. Lapses (down, up and mass stress scenarios)9. Major stresses (e.g. mortality, longevity, disability)10.Lack of profits post stress11.Too little diversification12.Risk capital on government bonds

SCR

13. Volatility of the solvency ratio

Solvency ratio

10

FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS

Page 13: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

Sweden Re

Medical Underwriting

Leading provider of medical underwriting services in the Nordic market

SCOR

2

Web based medical manual for child products.

Web based medical manual for adult products.

Via outsourcing we do everything from Second Opinion to a full Medical Underwriting Service.

PRIO2.0

Page 14: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

Sweden Re

How it works behind the curtains

Webservices

Instantanous & syncronised data flow

DIGITAL SOLUTIONS

2

1. Online application & quote

2. Admin & personal data forms

3. Loading of health questionnaire

4. Output of questions and tips

5. Input of answers

6. Automatic results generation7. Quote results display

Page 15: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

Sweden Re

E-underwriting Light – how does it work?

DIGITAL SOLUTIONS

3

Client logs in on Cedent website and applies for insurance.

Client answers questions in the dynamic form.

Client clicks Send and is asked to sign the form electronically.

Complete health declaration is available on SCOR Sweden Re Customer Portal.

Cedent views the health declaration in SCOR Sweden Re Customer Portal.

Any remarks?

Cedent contacts the Client and finishes the application.

SCOR Sweden Re Medical Underwriter picks up the case and

gives a recommendation.

Cedent receives recommendation on SCOR Sweden Re Customer Portal

and contacts the Client.

Client clicks on a link to reach the health declaration.

NO

YES

Page 16: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

Sweden Re

Workshops

CLIENT TRAININGS

1

Previous topics: Stress and burnout, Screening of foetus for particular diseases – possibilities and ethical considerations, Cardiology, ADHD/ADD as an adult – risks and possibilities.

Page 17: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

Sweden Re 17

Market Analysis / Benchmarking / Experience Analysis / Etc.

Extra service for reinsurance clients

• Our clients are more and more turning to us for advice about the current competition and incoming trends of the insurance business as well as asking for help to analyzing their own data.

• Analyses will be available as a bonus service to our reinsurance clients.

• Clients who share more data will get access to more in depth studies.

Confidentiality

• All presented information will be anonymized.• Sensitive data are presented as averages and intervals.

Fredrik LannsjöPlease contact

[email protected] further information

Page 18: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

Sweden Re

Page 19: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

Sweden Re

SCOR Sweden Re:s Nordic Life Insurance ConferenceOctober 13th 2017

WELCOME

Svein Børre Solvang

Page 20: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

13 October 2017SCOR Sweden Re

Life Insurance Conference

Solvency II –In Full Force

Peter NowellSCOR Global Life

Page 21: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

2

Solvency II

1) Source: EIOPA, Technical Specification for the Preparatiory Phase (Part I), p, 120 (30 April 2014)

In force from 1 January 2016

Public reporting of detailed solvency information from 20 May 2017 (solo entities) / 1 July 2017 (group entities) – SFCR reports

Potential extension to pension sector under consideration

Refinements being considered but wholescale change unlikely

Page 22: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

3

Solvency II reviewed

Cross selling within Europe under common regulatory framework

Better capitalised entities to take over weaker companies

Strengths

Competition from insurers in « equivalent » jurisdictions such as Bermuda but with lower asset risk charges

Potential changes to reduce further the returns on long term life business

Weaknesses

Level playing field across European insurers Risk based allocation of capital Reduction in regulatory arbitrage Long term increase in amount of capital to support

industry

Opportunities Threats

Higher capital charges for long term business and long term investments, reducing market for annuities

Inconsistent risk charges « Gold plating » by individual regulators High costs of implementation

Page 23: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

4

Discounting

The discounting rates used under Solvency II may be materially different from risk free rates such as swap curves:

Two main assumptions are:− No negative interest rates (floor at 0%) and− Ultimate Forward Rate (UFR)

However these assumptions change over time. For example the UFR for EUR / SEK / NOK is being reduced from 4.20% to 3.65% over the next 5 years

-0,500%

0,000%

0,500%

1,000%

1,500%

2,000%

2,500%

3,000%

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29

SEK discounting curves

Swap curve SII curve

Will flatten in the long end as the UFR is reduced

Floor at 0% to continue

Page 24: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

5

Capital management

The capital management strategy of an organisation will depend on its thresholds for risk, its legal form, the volatility of its underwriting results and any guidance from its regulator as to its capitalisation.

If the level of capital is too high, shareholders may request higher dividends / share buybacks – no such pressure for mutuals

If the level of capital is too low, then additional capital may be raised through sale of assets, additional reinsurance, issuing capital or subordinated debt, or reducing risks

The ultimate sanctions for falling below the minimum capital ratio for too long are regulatory intervention, leading to a forced merger, sale, run-off or liquidation

SCR

Alert

Sub-Optimal

Comfort

Over capitalised

Sub-Optimal +

Optimal

~100%

~220%

~180%

~150%

~120%

~300%

Solvency Ratio

Page 25: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

6

Actions

Sell portfolios that consume capital – M&A

Decrease policyholder and

shareholder dividends

Structured Reinsurance

Sell more capital light products

e.g. UL policies

Expand into emerging markets

Purchase more traditional

reinsurance

Reduce costs –automation, outsourcing

Sell portfolios that consume capital – M&A

Raise capital –equity,

subordinated debt

Change strategic asset allocation

Merge or put company into

run-off

Page 26: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

7

Balance sheet management

Three main categories of Structured Reinsurance:

1. Reduce Solvency margin requirements- Varies from quota share to more sophisticated solutions e.g mass lapse reinsurance under Solvency 2

2. Increase available capital – create admissible assets and/or remove redundant reserves- Often structured as coinsurance or modified

coinsurance

3. Increase available capital and liquidity- VIF monetisation through quota share reinsurance with ceding commission

Action

Simplified balance sheet

Capital structure

Simplified balance sheet:

Assets

Free Surplus

Required Capital

Liabilities

1

2

3

Page 27: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

8

Financing

In this example, a structured reinsurance treaty was used to provide financing as well as risk transfer for a mutual insurer. The company had partnered with a start-up broker to originate new term life policies; however, the broker needed to earn an upfront commission to pay for IT and advertising expenses, whereas the mutual earned a spread over the life of the policy. Here SGL financed this cash strain by providing an initial ceding commission, to be repaid through a [90]% quota share reinsurance treaty over the life of the policies.

ReinsurerMutual insurer

Customers

Internet broker

Expenses

Premiums

Claims

Premiums

Claims

Term life policies Quota share

Initial ceding commissionCommissionClient

management

Page 28: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

9

Mass Lapse Reinsurance

A number of insurers have purchased reinsurance against the risk of lapses on their overall portfolio exceeding a certain threshold e.g. [20]% within the next year. This allows the cedant to hold less Solvency 2 capital against the risk of mass lapse (40% lapses in the next 12 months) as this risk is passed on to the reinsurer. For traditional products and insurers not on an internal model, this can be an affordable source of additional capital.

ReinsurerInsurerCustomersPremiums

Claims

Premiums

Contingent Claim

Mass Lapse Reinsurance

Page 29: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

10

Contingent Reinsurance

For our final example, an insurer may not need reinsurance today with its solvency ratio above [150]%, but may be concerned about the future. So it reinsures a block of business from its customers with a quota share covering only part of the risks, e.g. a [40]% quota share. It also pays a low facility fee to the reinsurer, in return for the right to increase the quota share percentage to [80]% at any time over the next [4] years under the same conditions as the existing reinsurance treaty. This guarantees availability of extra protection at a fixed cost, even if market conditions change.

ReinsurerInsurerCustomersPremiums

Claims

Premiums

Claims

Quota ShareReinsurance

Facility fee

Page 30: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

11

SCOR Global Life

Peter NowellGlobal Head of Structuring – Financial Solutions SCOR Global Life

10 Lime Street | London | EC3M 7AA | United KingdomTel: +44 (0)20 3207 8780| email: [email protected]

Page 31: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

12

Disclaimer

This presentation and none of the information contained is intended to be legally binding or enforceable. The presentation is not exhaustive and shall not give rise to legal rights or obligations.

The information provided in this presentation does in no way whatsoever constitute legal, accounting, tax or other professional advice. While SCOR Global Life SE has endeavored to include in this presentation information it believes to be reliable, complete and up-to-date, the company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness or updated status of such information. Therefore, in no case whatsoever will SCOR Global Life SE and its affiliated companies be liable to anyone for any decision made or action taken in conjunction with the information in this presentation or for any related damages.

Page 32: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

© Swedbank

Aggregation of capital requirements in Solvency II standard formulaConference, SCOR Sweden Re, 2017-10-13

Magnus Carlehed, Head of Risk,Swedbank Group Savings

Page 33: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

© Swedbank

Swedbank

• Retail bank– Four home markets (Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania)– 7.2 million private customers, 0.6 million corporate customers– 13 900 employees– Also has asset management and insurance companies as subsidaries

• Swedbank’s insurance business– Swedbank Försäkring AB, Life insurance, Sweden, AUM 170bn SEK– Swedbank Life Insurance SE, Baltics, AUM 5bn SEK– Swedbank P&C Insurance SA, Non-Life Insurance, Baltics

Page 34: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

© Swedbank Information classInternal

Date2014-11-20

Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR)

Page 35: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

© Swedbank

Solvency II: The three pillars

Pillar I – Solvency Capital Requirements (SCR)Pillar 2 – GovernancePillar 3 – Reporting

Pillar IIGovernance and Risk Management•System for:

•Governance•Risk Management•Internal Control

•Own Risk and Solvency Assessment

Pillar ISolvency Capital

Requirements• Minimal Capital

Requirements (MCR) • Solvency Capital

Requirements (SCR) • Standard model or

Internal model• Capital structure• Mark to market/model

Pillar IIIExternal and Internal Reporting•IT-system support•Data Quality•Reporting structure and procedures

Solvency II

Page 36: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

© Swedbank

Identify risk exposures (example from life insurance)

Identifying risk exposure to future profits

• Future cash flows are exposed to a number of risks that, if crystallized, may have an adverse affect on Own Funds.

SII risk taxonomy

• The main exposures applicable to SFAB business is highlighted above

-1 000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

2 01

02

013

2 01

62

019

2 02

22

025

2 02

82

031

2 03

42

037

2 04

02

043

2 04

62

049

Commission retro

Commission fee

Admin costs

Retrocession

FUM prop fee

Fix fee

Total

Page 37: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

© Swedbank

Shocking Market Valued Balance Sheet (MVBS)- VAR approach calibrated to a 99,5% confidence level

Assets

Market Value of Assets

Liabilities

Best estimate

Assets

Market Value of Assets

Liabilities

Risk Margin

Net Asset Value

TVOG

Best estimate

Risk Margin

Net Asset Value

TVOG

MVBS post a 99,5% event

Own FundsOwn Funds

SCR

Page 38: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

© Swedbank Information classInternal

Date2014-11-20

Solvency Capital RequirementsAggregation

Page 39: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

© Swedbank Information classInternal

Date2014-11-20

Two risk factors

8

• In all examples we will look at two risk typesX and Y, e.g. Equity and Lapse

• In principle, the correct capital requirement is the 99.5% quantile of the value distribution, when we simulate both X and Y simultaneously → difficult

Capitalrequirement

Page 40: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

© Swedbank Information classInternal

Date2014-11-20

The standard formula is a simplification (1)

9

• 𝐶𝐶𝑋𝑋 = −𝑓𝑓(𝑞𝑞𝑋𝑋, 0), 𝐶𝐶𝑌𝑌 = −𝑓𝑓(0,𝑞𝑞𝑌𝑌), where 𝑞𝑞𝑋𝑋 and 𝑞𝑞𝑌𝑌 are quantiles of X and Y, and f is the “value function”.

• The value function f describes how the value of our portfolio varies with X and Y, and is obviously very important for the outcome

In the Standard Formula, we stress one risk factorat the time, by a prescribed stress.

X Y Value f(X,Y) Capital requirement

0 0 0 N/A

𝑞𝑞𝑋𝑋 = -0.5 0 -75 𝐶𝐶𝑋𝑋 = 75

0 𝑞𝑞𝑌𝑌 = -0.3 -300 𝐶𝐶𝑌𝑌 = 300

Page 41: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

© Swedbank Information classInternal

Date2014-11-20

The standard formula is a simplification (2)

10

• 𝑆𝑆𝐶𝐶𝑆𝑆 = 𝑆𝑆𝐶𝐶𝑆𝑆 𝛼𝛼 : = 𝐶𝐶𝑋𝑋2+2𝛼𝛼𝐶𝐶𝑋𝑋 𝐶𝐶𝑌𝑌 + 𝐶𝐶𝑋𝑋2

In the Standard Formula, we then aggregate the individual capital requirements 𝐶𝐶𝑋𝑋 and 𝐶𝐶𝑌𝑌 using a prescribed “correlation” α.

Page 42: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

© Swedbank Information classInternal

Date2014-11-20

Example: Two risks, each with acapital requirement of 100

11

α Capital requirement (SCR)1.0 2000.75 1870.5 1730.25 1580 141- 0.25 122

• What is the correct α?• That depends on f, but also on the underlying joint

distribution of X and Y.• What is a prudent α?

• For Life Risks and Market Risks, Solvency II has α=0.25.

Page 43: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

© Swedbank Information classInternal

Date2014-11-20

Everything is normal…

12

• Solvency II does not assume any specific joint distribution for the risk factors.

• We will assume bivariate normal distribution of X and Y, with mean 0, variance 1 and correlation ρ.

• The theme of my work is:

• Naive conclusion: α = ρ

Given ρ, if we want SCR(α) to equal the correct capital requirement (from the joint

distribution), how shall we choose α?

Page 44: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

© Swedbank Information classInternal

Date2014-11-20

Special case:The “volume dependent” situation in a life portfolio

Page 45: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

© Swedbank Information classInternal

Date2014-11-20

Volume dependent case in life insurance

14

• A portfolio of unit-linked contracts. The company receives fees that are proportional to the Assets Under Management (AUM).

• After expenses, this gives rise to a number of cash flows that are discounted to today with a (hopefully) positive net sum = Own Funds (OF). Statically, the Own Funds are approximately proportional to AUM.

• Losing AUM “over-night”, due to e.g. mass lapse or equity crash, means losing OF overnight in a proportional way.

Surprisingly, if the stresses are not too small, the correctα is negative, even for highly positive ρ.

”A lapsed portfolio can’t crash.”

Page 46: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

© Swedbank Information classInternal

Date2014-11-20

Plot of how 𝛼𝛼 depends on the stress and on 𝜌𝜌

15

1. Small stress andhigh correlation givespositive 𝛼𝛼. 2. Large stress givesnegative 𝛼𝛼. 3. Zero or negativecorrelation givesnegative 𝛼𝛼, regardless of stress.

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0stress

0.4

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

0.4

0

0.4

0.8

Page 47: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

© Swedbank Information classInternal

Date2014-11-20

Case study: Three portfolios in a life insurance company

Page 48: WELCOME [] Solutions Group Investment Office Property & Casualty reinsurance Life & Health reinsurance Asset management Specialty Lines Global Product Lines Investment Partners SCOR

© Swedbank Information classInternal

Date2014-11-20

Three portfolios of a life insurance company

17

• P1, unit-linked• P2 and P3, guarantees• Equity stress: Full stress of EQ Type 1 as -39% (no stress of

Type 2 or Fixed Income instruments). Half stress -19.5%.• Lapse: Full stress: Mass lapse, 40%. Half stress 20%.

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© Swedbank Information classInternal

Date2014-11-20

Risk matrices (a small number of simultaneous stresses for each portfolio)

18

Rows = LapseColumns = EQ(Each cell requires a large stochasticsimulation)

Individual capital requirements

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© Swedbank Information classInternal

Date2014-11-20

Simulation approach (“internal model”)

19

• Distribution assumptions:– EQ: Student-t distributed– Lapse: another heavy-tailed distribution– Independence between EQ and Lapse

• Draw a large number of scenarios (EQ,Lapse) from the assumed distribution.

• Use the risk matrices to calculate the value (OF) of the portfolio given each scenario (“value response function”)

• Find the correct quantile of the OF value changes, and compare with 𝑆𝑆𝐶𝐶𝑆𝑆 𝛼𝛼 ; the latter is found analytically.

• Back out 𝛼𝛼.

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© Swedbank Information classInternal

Date2014-11-20

Results and conclusion

20

The found 𝛼𝛼 are -0.19, -0.19, -0.12, for the three portfolios, respectively. Here 𝜌𝜌 = 0. However, some analysis shows that we are in the area where𝛼𝛼 is negative for all 𝜌𝜌.

The prescribed 𝛼𝛼=0.25 is too large!

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© Swedbank Information classInternal

Date2014-11-20

[email protected]

Thank you!

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Copyright by Spark & Strategy Ltd. – All rights reserved

WELCOME TO THE PRESENT!

Stockholm, October 2017

”You can’t start a fire without a spark”Bruce Springsteen

@gerramirez

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Copyright by Spark & Strategy Ltd. – All rights reserved

”Your brand is not what you say, it’s what you DO…”

German Ramirez, Speaker, Consultant, Author, Coach & Entrepreneur

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1960

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gyLt

d. –

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1990

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2000

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2010

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Digitalization has enabled to turn around the

power structure in the information, interaction

and transaction

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92% 14%vs.

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The traditional marketing model

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Which becomes the ZMOT for the next potential customer

The new marketing

model: Zero Moment of

Truth

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How?

Why?vs.

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The customer is no longer the King

The customer is now Mr. President

German Ramirez, Speaker, Consultant, Author, Coach & Entrepreneur

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Copyright by Spark & Strategy Ltd. – All rights reserved

”Dear YouTube: I will always “skip ad”!”

German Ramirez, Keynote Speaker, Consultant, Coach & Entrepreneur

A few mistakes to avoid…

typical 1st & 2nd reactions

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Source: Luma Partners, Terry Kawaja

1stenormous challenge? too many options!

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16

2nd big challenge:

Who “owns” digital?

MarketingPR

IT & operations

The agency

Cross-functional

team

Customer service

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A typical fear... And a myth, by the way!

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Source: Tom Fishburne

Corporate Risk

Obsession DNA…

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Our typical reaction at the beginning…

My favorite

1streaction

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Let’s be …E V E R Y –W H E R E

!!!

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Let’s talk about ... U S !!!

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Source: Tom Fishburne

Let’s be …S U P E R –C O R P O-R A T E !!!

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Let’s make sure we have … C O N –T R O L !!!

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The outcome of a consensus

driven process...

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The biggest mistake is in the thinking!

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Copyright by Spark & Strategy Ltd. – All rights reserved

“Brand Management is dead. You no longer own your brand. Your new brand manager is your customer.”

German Ramirez, Keynote Speaker, Consultant, Author, Coach & Entrepreneur

What do we have to do to succeed

with the new customer?

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INTERACTION & PROXIMITYSource: Public Domain PIctures

Relationships& ruleschange:

Participation-Dialog on ALL

Channels

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TRANSPARENCY & AUTHENTICITY

Source: pixabay

Word ofmouth on

steroids: ALL Information

ispublic

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SPEEDSource: pixabay

Everyone is an author:

Information isgenerated &

distributed byeverybody at thespeed of light

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Whatgoes on in the users

mind

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The „buyme“trap

Buy!

Buy!

Buy!

Buy!Buy!

Buy!

Buy!

Buy!

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Get themengaged anddoing thetalking!

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RELEVANCEDer Key toSuccess in Business:

Welcome tothe

era ofRelevance

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WHY does the world

need my S*** ?

German Ramirez, Speaker, Consultant, Author, Coach & Entrepreneur

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Elevator Pitches are dead, because elevator

rides are too long!

German Ramirez, Speaker, Consultant, Author, Coach & Entrepreneur

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Every good idea fits on a Post-it. If it doesn’t it is not a good

idea (yet…)

German Ramirez, Speaker, Consultant, Author, Coach & Entrepreneur

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Copyright by Spark & Strategy Ltd. – All rights reserved

”Transformation means metamorphosis. Sticking wings on a caterpillar does not make a butterfly out of it.”German Ramirez, Keynote Speaker, Consultant, Author, Coach & Entrepreneur

Final words: Focus on rewarding

Customer experiences & Radical Customer

Focus

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Source: Guidedselling.org

Multi-Channel is not Omni-Channel

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Source: Pixabay.com

Your organization thinks and works in boxes

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Source: HR Today

Customers move fluently… All is

part of one experience… Does it feel like that

with you?

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edBrand Management is

dead…Stop trying to control and be

honest!

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Source: Tom Fishburne

Involve your

customer

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edDon’t exaggerate with your messages &

content

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edDon’t hide advertising as relevant content

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Source: Tom Fishburne

Personalize, but with a focus on building value

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edMeasure, but the right

things!

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Source: Tom Fishburne

It is not about products, it is

about experiences: Become radically

customer oriented! Are you?

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Source: Wikimedia Commons

It is not about Change

Management…it is about

Transformation!

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Source: Flickr “... NOT MY PROBLEM” by abbilder

Not so easy?

I got three words for

you…

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Don’t be afraid of failing

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Source: Tom Fishburne

Don’t take yourself

too serious…

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The customer is no longer the King

The customer is now Mr. President

German Ramirez, Speaker, Consultant, Author, Coach & Entrepreneur

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Copyright by Spark & Strategy Ltd. – All rights reserved

German [email protected]+41 789 424 767@gerramirez

"The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not reflect the position or policy of any company the author might be speaking on behalf of. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information in this presentation, the author cannot assume responsibility for any errors or omissions. This information should NOT be taken to constitute legal advice or opinion. Information herein is general and non-specific and is NOT intended to confer opinions or advice of any kind. The author disclaims all responsibility and accepts no liability (including negligence) for consequences of any person acting, or refraining from acting, on this information. Additionally, changes in regulations and legislation may

occur quickly. Readers should perform their own independent research and seek additional current information on matters which may affect their rights and/or obligations."

QA

The worst part of digi ta l is…

you feel OLDER faster

Muchas Gracias!

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Sweden Re

SCOR Sweden Re:s Nordic Life Insurance ConferenceOctober 13th 2017

CLOSING

Svein Børre Solvang

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Sweden Re

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Sweden Re

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Sweden Re

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Årets konferens Grand Hotel 7 oktober

Tack mail till deltagarna! Utvärderingen gick till 200+ personer Enkät 7 frågor med fritext

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Feedback on the 2016 Conference• A very professional and including conference• The speaker was surprisingly insecure• To much information• To little information• Finally an Actuary we non-actuaries could understand (Tove Brickner)• The speakers should have been guided on beforehand to secure a better

performance• Fun to be part of some experiments at the end with Gospic• Fantastic opportunity to meet people in the industry and to listen to

interesting speakers without the risk of falling asleep• The food was extraordinary good• The food was awful• The first half of the presentation was good, the second half bad• Grand heavily underperformed. No coffee in the morning and a rebuilding

and construction site. Next year I hope for a new venue• Yes I agree the CEO could really loose a lot of weight

• Eat more often and less each time. No candy. More vegetables. • Powerwalk. Bicycling. Start the day with some running. • No eating after 20:00PM

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Feedback on the 2016 Conference• A very professional and including conference• The speaker was surprisingly insecure• To much information• To little information• Finally an Actuary we non-actuaries could understand (Tove Brickner)• The speakers should have been guided on beforehand to secure a better

performance• Fun to be part of some experiments at the end with Gospic• Fantastic opportunity to meet people in the industry and to listen to

interesting speakers without the risk of falling asleep• The food was extraordinary good• The food was awful• The first half of the presentation was good, the second half bad• Grand heavily underperformed. No coffee in the morning and a rebuilding

and construction site. Next year I hope for a new venue• Yes I agree the CEO could really loose a lot of weight

• Eat more often and less each time. No candy. More vegetables. • Powerwalk. Bicycling. Start the day with some running. • No eating after 20:00PM

Please give us your valuable feedback also in 2017

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LUNCH

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