WELCOME TO

NMC/CMA

WELCOME TO

NMC/CMA

Who We AreWho We Are National Meteorological Centre,

CMA’s national centre for weather operations and relevant research

Founded in 1950

Total number of employees: 251

国家气象中心

(NMC)

国国家家气气象象中中心心NMCNMC

Administrative Departments

Administrative Sector

(29 staffs)

Basic Operations

Basic

Operation Sector(116 staffs)

CommercialServices

CommercialServices

(106 staffs)

Division of OperationDivision of O, R & D

Planning&Financial Affairs

Integrative Office

Weather Office

Specialized Meteorological Service

Logistic Service

Remote Sensing Application

Personal Division

Organization of New NMCOrganization of New NMC Administration Office Administration Office

Agricultural & Ecological Met.

Met. Service for Decision-making

Division of NWP

Forecast System Laboratory

23%

18%43%

16%大学其他硕士博士

科研、业务人员学历分布情况

博士 1919 人 硕士 4949 人 大学 27 人 其他 21 人

Ph.D 1919 Master 49 Bachelor 27 Others 21

Education level of staffs in basic operation sector

67

2318

6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

<35岁 35-45岁 45-55岁 >55岁

人数Number

科研、业务人员年龄结构科研、业务人员年龄结构 Structure of staff's age in basic operation sectorStructure of staff's age in basic operation sector

Meteorological service to central government Meteorological service to public and external

user community Special meteorological service to specific users

(commercial service) Technical instruction to local weather offices Relevant international duties on meteorology (e.g. (e.g. as a Regional Specialized Meteorological Center

and an Environmental Emergence Response Center of WMO ) )

Main ResponsibilitiesMain Responsibilities

What We DoWhat We Do

Public weather forecasts

(include environmental meteo.)

Decision-making support

Guidance to support local

meteorological offices

Weather forecasts to day 5Severe weather (Typhoon, Torrential rain, Dust storm, Strong winds, and Hot wave etc.) watches, forecasts and warningsCity air quality predictionsForecasts of forest fire potentialForecasts of geolo. disaster (landslip) potential

Weather forecasts to day 5Severe weather (Typhoon, Torrential rain, Dust storm, Strong winds, and Hot wave etc.) watches, forecasts and warningsCity air quality predictionsForecasts of forest fire potentialForecasts of geolo. disaster (landslip) potential

Severe weather watches, forecasts & outlooksAnalyses of impacts of severe weather and climate events on public and economicsInformation on meteorological disasters and disasters derived from meteorologyWatches on forest fire, flood, growing of cropsAnalyses on meteo. condition for agri. and crops yield forecastsEmergence response to harmful polluting events

Severe weather watches, forecasts & outlooksAnalyses of impacts of severe weather and climate events on public and economicsInformation on meteorological disasters and disasters derived from meteorologyWatches on forest fire, flood, growing of cropsAnalyses on meteo. condition for agri. and crops yield forecastsEmergence response to harmful polluting events

Medium-range weather forecasts to day 7Short-range weather forecasts to day 3Severe weather (Typhoon, Torrential rain, Dust storm, Strong winds, and Hot wave etc.) watches , forecasts and warningsForecasts of convective phenomena locationPotential forecasts of geological disaster to day 2UV index forecasts to day 2Crops yield forecasts

Medium-range weather forecasts to day 7Short-range weather forecasts to day 3Severe weather (Typhoon, Torrential rain, Dust storm, Strong winds, and Hot wave etc.) watches , forecasts and warningsForecasts of convective phenomena locationPotential forecasts of geological disaster to day 2UV index forecasts to day 2Crops yield forecasts

What We DoWhat We Do

NWP operational model development and operations

Remote-sensing application

Agricultural & ecological meteorology

Global model (T213L31)Regional/ Meso-scale models (HLAFS025/27km)OI/3DVAR data assimilationEPS (T106L19-32mumbers)Typhoon track modelDust storm modelNuclear pollution transport & dispersion modelAir quality model

Products for severe weather watches (e.g. convective system, dust storm, typhoon, fronts)Products of atmospheric conditions and cloud properties (e.g. TBB, cloud water, cloud ice)Products of surface properties (albedo, SST, land use, terrain)Products for ecological & environmental watches (e.g. soil moisture, forest fire, NDVI, ice/snow cover, water coverage of lakes/rivers)

Agricultural meteo. data processingWatches on crops growing, soil condition, and meteo. environmental condition for agri.Assessment on agricultural meteo. disastersCrops yield forecasts (wheat, paddy, corn, cotton etc.)Watches on ecological environment Agricultural meteo. products to public

Classified by timeClassified by time

● ● Weather and environmental monitoring (0 hour)

● ●Nowcasting for severe weather (0-3 hour) and very short range forecast（ 0-12 hour）

●●Short-range forecast (1-3 days） ●●Medium-range forecast (4-10 days） ●●Agriculture meteorological information (10 days)

●●Extended forecast for important synoptic event（ 11-30 days）） ●●Annual crops yield forecasts

ProductsProducts

Classified by varietiesClassified by varieties●●Disastrous weather warning （ Typhoon, Torrential rain, Dust storm,

Gale, cold wave, severe convection and etc.)●●Weather forecast (cities and towns in China, world main cities)●●Tropical cyclone and oceanic meteorological forecast●●Crops growing and yield forecast●●Weather, climate and environmental monitoring (including flood, fire,

snow, dust storm, ecological environment, land use, typhoon, plant cover, SST, OLR, TBB and etc.)

●●Air quality forecast●●Diffusion forecast of nuclear pollution ●●Environmental index forecast●●Specialized meteorological services

ProductsProducts

ObservationObservation (8 July–8 September)(8 July–8 September)

Forecast of the Forecast of the 24 Hour Precipitation24 Hour Precipitation ((8 July 2003)8 July 2003)

Contrast of best track and forecast of typhoon Sinlaku

5 days earlier,we forecast the typhoon Sinlaku would landfall on the joint part of Zhejiang and Fujian province,so that 640000 people were evacuated.

Best track

Forecast track

190.8164.6145.7

133

374.4

311.4

233.9227.6

0

50

100150

200

250

300

350400

24h 48h

85-99200020012002

Mean distance errors of tropical cyclone predictions (km)Mean distance errors of tropical cyclone predictions (km)

72 Hour High Temperature Forecast andObservation 2 Aug., 2003

Typhoon Monitoring by Doppler RadarTyphoon Monitoring by Doppler Radar

Typhoon Monitoring by SatelliteTyphoon Monitoring by Satellite

Dust Storm RouteDust Storm Route

Started on 19 March, 2002, severe dust storm occurred in NW, north and NE of China. The source of this process was from middle and west part of Mongolia and middle and west part of Inner Mongolia.

Dust Storm Route Dust Storm Route 3/20/2002 3/20/2002 （（ 0808 ））

2002.3.18—3.212002.3.18—3.21

蒙古高原蒙古高原

浑善达克沙地浑善达克沙地科尔沁沙地科尔沁沙地

哈顺戈壁哈顺戈壁

中央戈壁中央戈壁

乌兰布和沙漠库布齐沙漠

塔克拉玛干沙漠塔克拉玛干沙漠

库姆塔格沙漠库姆塔格沙漠 巴丹吉林沙漠

滕格里沙漠 毛乌素沙地

Dust Storm RouteDust Storm Route

—— —— dust dust 杨沙杨沙—— —— dust stormdust storm 沙尘暴沙尘暴—— —— severe dust storm severe dust storm 强沙尘暴强沙尘暴0800h 20 March

Dust Storm Observation and Numerical ForecastDust Storm Observation and Numerical Forecast

ObservationObservation

Numerical ForecastNumerical Forecast

Our future is build Our future is build uponupon

Improving watches and forecasts of extreme events

Seamless weather forecast products Extension of meteo. forecast field through a

collaborative approach with other agencies Improving NWP model performance by

improving data assimilation and model physics Addressing uncertainty in forecasts ——

ensemble modeling/forecasts

数值预报室 (39) NWP Division

Organizational Structure of NWP Division 数值预报室机构设置

天气预报室 (52) Weather Office

资料

同化

科 (

6)D

ata

assi

mil

atio

n

NMCNMO

模式

2科

(6)

(边

界层

/陆面

/扩散

模式

) M

odel

ing

2模式

1科

(6)

(模

式框

架/云

/降

水/辐

射)

M

odel

ing

1

科 7-Branches

业务

运行

科 (

5)N

WP

ope

rati

on

行政

与业

务秘

书

(2)

Secr

etar

y

国家气象中心 中央气象台

模式

3科

(4)

(台

风与

集合

预报

)T

ypho

on &

EPS

模

式检

验与

评价

科 (

4) e

rifi

cati

on

on N

WP

pro

duct

s

系统

集成

与技

术支

持科

(4)

Tec

hnic

al

Sup

port

ing

环境气象预报室 Enviro - Meteo Forecast office

NWP operational systemsNWP operational systems “T213L31” Global medium-range NWP system (60km) “HLAFS” Limited area short-range NWP system (27km) Typhoon track NWP system (60km) Meso-scale NWP system (based on MM5, 27km/9km) Medium-range Ensemble Prediction System (32 members

T106L19) (new generation of EPS is underdevelopment) Air quality model system (coupled with meso-scale model) Nuclear pollution transport and dispersion model system

(coupled with T213L31 model) UVI prediction system (coupled with T213L31 model) Dust-storm model system (nested with T213L31 model)

Year 2003 2004 2006 2008资料同化 OI 方案 Operation

Data assi- 3DVAR Testing Quasi-oper, oper ATOVS MODIS,

Radar, Auto-OBS

mulation 4DVAR/E-KF Research Developing

大气模式 Global T213L31 Operation T319L31/60 Oper

T639L60 Oper

Atmos- Regional HLAFS025 GRAPES &

/MM5 Oper,CHLAFS devel.

GRAPES Quasi CHLAFS Quasi

GRAPES OperCHLAFS Oper.

Model Muti-scale GRAPES Developing Testing

Quasi-oper,

Operation

集合预报 T106 32-Members Operation

EPS New EPS (BGM)Super-EPS regional

Devel. & testDeveloping

T213 EPS Oper GRAPES /CHLAFS EPS

台风系统MTTP

Regional-MTTP Oper Global-MTTP Operation, Improving

0

20

40

60

80

100

82.1 83.1 84.1 85.1 86.1 87.1 88.1 89.1 90.1 91.1 92.1 93.1 94.1 95.1 96.1 97.1 98.1 99.1 y2.1 2001 2002

B-MODEL

RM

SE

48h

96h

144h

50rms

T106L19T42L9 T63L16

国家气象中心业务数值预报演变 500HPA（北半球 高度场均方根误差）

T213L31

OPERATIONAL NWP IN NMCOPERATIONAL NWP IN NMC

RMSE OF 500HPA HEIGHT OVER NORTH HEMISPHERERMSE OF 500HPA HEIGHT OVER NORTH HEMISPHERE

JMA

CMA

ECMWF

与国外模式的比较 (2003.8)北半球 500hPa 高度距平相关系数差距依然明显（可用时效比 EC短 1.5天、比日本短 0.5-1天）

> 0.1mm

> 10.0mm

> 25.0mm

> 50.0mm

> 100.0mm

Relevant Work undergoingRelevant Work undergoing

Global model and data assimilation Model vertical resolution Data assimilation scheme & use of ATOVS

Meso-scale models CHALFS—modified based on WRF GRAPES---developed by domestic scientists

EPS development

Vertical level distributionVertical level distribution

L31

L60

OI

3DVAR

Parallel testing

2424 小时累计降水小时累计降水

Impact of ATOVS data on precipitation forecast

Flow chart of WRF experimental system

• 数据预处理 数据预处理 SISI

• 3DVAR3DVAR

• WRFWRF

• 结 果 后 处 理结 果 后 处 理Post Post

processingprocessing

• 模式 结果检验 模式 结果检验 VerificationVerification

WR

F-3D

VA

R

系统的时间流程安

排

系统的运行

2003 年 7 月 4 日 24小时降水预报与实况

Huai River flooding case

OBS

Simulation

20km 水平分辨率 5km 水平

分辨率

20032003 年年 66 月月 2222 日日 2424 小时降水预报图小时降水预报图

OBS

实况OBS

原方案 国产方案Own schemeOriginal one

GRAPES---domestic madeGRAPES---domestic made

A 60km regional version of GRAPES has been put in real time testing since May 2004

Preliminary results show that its performance and results are basically reasonable

2004 6 23 7 18年 月 日至 月 日国家气象中心客观降水预报全国累加检验

0

0. 1

0. 2

0. 3

0. 4

0. 5

0. 6

0. 7

24h 48h 时效

TS

GRAPESHLAFS25T213MM5WRFGRAPESHLAFS25T213MM5WRFGRAPESHLAFS25T213MM5WRFGRAPESHLAFS25T213MM5WRFGRAPESHLAFS25T213MM5WRF

2004 6 23 7 18年 月 日至 月 日国家气象中心主客观降水预报全国累加检验

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

24h 48h 时效

B GRAPESHLAFS25T213MM5WRFGRAPESHLAFS25T213MM5WRFGRAPESHLAFS25T213MM5WRFGRAPESHLAFS25T213MM5WRFGRAPESHLAFS25T213MM5WRF