Introduction to Statistics

Welcome to PSY 10!

Justin KernSpring 2017

Before We Get Started…

Make sure you’re in the right class!

Prerequisite: successful completion of PSY 001 or COGS 001

We will always meet here in SSB 170 for lectures.

You must also be concurrently enrolled in a PSY 10 lab.

All labs are on Tuesday.

Introducing Ourselves Instructor:

Justin Kern (jkern4@ucmerced.edu) Lectures: Mon & Wed 8:30–10:20am, SSB 170

Office Hours: Fri 3:00–5:00 pm, SSM 251A

Lab Teaching Assistants (TAs):

Ana Simoes (asimoes@ucmerced.edu)

Labs: Tue 7:30–8:20am, COB 260

Tue 8:30–9:20am, COB 266

Office Hours: Thur 1:30–3:30pm, SSM 313 (Lai Lab)

W. Kyle Hamilton (whamilton@ucmerced.edu)

Labs: Tue 9:30–10:20am, COB 270

Tue 10:30–11:20am, COB2 263

Office Hours: TBD, SSM 309 (Cameron Lab)

In this Course… Statistics with a behavioral science flavor

We will use examples from psychology and related fields However, statistical techniques you will learn are not just limited to

the behavioral sciences, so examples may also come from other areas.

Scientific Literacy: Being able to interpret and apply scientific thinking to everyday life is

important. The tools we will learn in this course here will help with that goal.

Decision Making: You will learn how to make decisions in the context of statistical

analysis.

Ethics and Responsibility: You will learn ethical ways of using statistics and be more able to

think critically about how statistics are used in both scientific and real-world settings.

Additional Materials

A standard calculator.

It should be able to perform basic calculations, including square roots and exponents.

Graphing calculators will NOT be allowed.

If you are unsure if your calculator is allowed, please bring it to myself or one of the TAs to ask.

Make sure to bring your calculator to class every day!!!

15 RED scantrons (Form Number: F-288-PAR-L).

Blank scratch paper can be brought to each quiz and exam. Students will have to show TAs the paper is blank before use.

Grading Policy

Grading Scale

A 90–100 C+ 69–71.99

A- 85–89.99 C 66–68.99

B+ 80–84.99 C- 63–65.99

B 75–79.99 D 60–62.99

B- 72–74.99 F < 60

Homework Assignments (25%)

Every Monday, homework will be posted on Justin’s website. One exception: there is a homework assigned today!

They are due the following Wednesday in class.

Homework is to be done by hand and a hardcopy handed in on the due date. Homework is to be put into the correct pile according to your lab

section.

Make sure to staple your homework!

There are a total of 12 homework assignments. The 2 lowest scores will be dropped from your final grade!

Each homework assignment is worth 2.5% of your final grade.

There is a strict NO makeup homework, and NO late workpolicy.

Homework Assignments (25%) Homework is to be graded on a 4-point scale that is transformed

into a percentage grade.

Each homework will have approximately 10 problems assigned from the text book. The TAs will choose 3 problems at random to be graded.

1 point will be given for completing the whole assignment.

1 point will be given for each of the 3 graded problems you get right.

The points are converted into a percentage as follows: 0: 0%

1: 50%

2: 80%

3: 90%

4: 100%

Make sure to finish all of the problems!

Monday Quizzes (15%)

In-class quizzes will be administered on Mondays.

Problems are presented on the board, and are similar to homework assignment that was just completed.

You will get 10-20 minutes to finish.

You will submit answers on a RED scantron.

There are a total of 12 quizzes. The 2 lowest scores will be dropped from your final grade!

Each quiz is worth 1.5% of your final grade.

If you do not have the proper scantron on the day of the quiz, 10 percent will be deducted from the final grade on the quiz.

There is a strict NO makeup quiz policy, unless there are extreme circumstances, and only if there are more than 2 excused absences approved by me.

Lab Assessments (15%)

Lab assessments will be administered in your weekly labs.

Problems will be presented in class, and you will get about 5-10 minutes to complete the assessment.

These will consist primarily of simple true and false questions, with a focus on concepts rather than computation.

There are a total of 12 assessments. The 2 lowest scores will be dropped from your final grade!

There is a strict NO makeup assessment policy, unless there are extreme circumstances, and only if there are more than 2 excused absences approved by me.

Midterm Exams (30%) There will be 2 in-class midterm exams.

I will let you know the week prior to the exam when it will be.

Each exam is worth 15% of your final grade. These are technically non-cumulative. However, they are effectively cumulative; successive topics

build upon previous ones. Exams will consist of a multiple-choice section and a by-hand

calculation section. You will be allowed to bring one 8.5 x 11 handwritten (front

and back) “cheat sheet” for the exam. Make sure to bring your calculator. Make sure you have your RED scantron on the day of the

exam. Those who don’t will have 4 percent deducted from their final grade on the exam.

Final Exam (15%)

There will be a final exam during Exams Week.

This is a cumulative exam.

The final exam will consist of a multiple-choice section and a by-hand calculation section.

You will be allowed to bring three 8.5 x 11 handwritten (front and back) “cheat sheets” for the exam.

Make sure to bring your calculator.

Make sure you have your RED scantron on the day of the exam. Those who don’t will have 4 percent deductedfrom their final grade on the exam.

Extra Credit Opportunities

I will not be curving any exams.

In lieu of curving, I am offering three extra credit opportunities.

If you do all three, you can potentially get up to 14.5% extra credit towards your final grade.

Study Guide (one per exam)

Worth 10 extra points on the exam.

For each chapter covered for the exam, you have to write a summary of the big ideas and choose and solve two problems that you think are good practice for the test.

At the end of the document, you must write a personal reflection about the topic that you find the most interesting, and whether you think it might be useful in the future.

If you decide to do this, you must turn it in on the day of the exam.

To get the full 10 points, you must finish the whole guide.

If you are doing it right, it will probably take longer than you think it should.

You can do this for each of the three exams.

The Interview (5% extra credit)

In this project, I ask for you to interview a professor or graduate student in your discipline of choice about how statistics is useful for their field.

Question ideas (not comprehensive nor required):

What are your research interests?

What is your training background in statistics?

What was the most challenging part about learning statistics?

How often do you use statistics and statistical thinking?

How do you apply statistics to your current line of work?

When turning this in to me, include the interview and a one- or two-page summary on your thoughts about the experience and what you can take from this is the future.

Can be done only once during the semester.

Can be done at any point during the semester before exams week.

Will not be accepted after May 4.

Research Participation Through SONA (1% per credit)

A great way for students to gain valuable insight into the process of research is to act as a participant in research studies.

At UC Merced, SONA (http://ucmerced.sona-systems.com) is used to match researchers with those interested in participating in research.

As compensation, you will receive credit in the system.

In general, credit is given at a rate of 1 credit per hour of participation.

For every 1 credit (up to 5) that you earn through SONA, I will give you 1% extra credit towards your final grade.

Order of Topics1. Introduction (Chapter 1)

2. Frequencies and Graphs (Chapters 2 & 3)

3. Central Tendency (Chapter 3)

4. Variability (Chapter 4)

5. Probability (Chapter 5)

6. Normal Distribution and Sampling Distributions (Chapters 6 & 7) Midterm Exam 1 (Topics 1 to 6)

7. Hypothesis Testing/Confidence Intervals: z-Tests (Chapter 8)

8. Hypothesis Testing/Confidence Intervals: One-Sample t-Tests (Chapters 9 & 11)

9. Hypothesis Testing/Confidence Intervals: Two-Sample t-Tests (Chapters 9 & 11)

10. Hypothesis Testing/Confidence Intervals: Paired t-Tests (Chapters 10 & 11) Midterm Exam 2 (Topics 7 to 10)

11. Chi-Square Tests of Independence and Goodness of Fit (Chapter 17)

12. Correlation and Regression (Chapters 15 & 16)

13. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA; Chapter 12) Final Exam (Cumulative with emphasis on topics after Midterm Exam 2)

Important Note

This class is worth 5 credit hours.

Because it is worth so much, I am also expecting a lot out of you.

A typical rule of thumb is to spend 2 to 3 hours a week outside class per credit hour studying.

That means that you should spend 10 to 15 hours per week outside of this class studying statistics!

Please make sure you get in the habit of doing this early. You will thank me later!!!

Immediate To-Do List

Carefully read syllabus and return signed Affidavit (last page) next lecture

Homework 1 was assigned today!

It is due next Wednesday, January 24.

Introducing Yourselves

On Note Cards:

Name

Year

Major

Interesting fact about yourself

Reason for taking this course

How excited are you about this class?

1 2 3 4 5: 1 being not at all, 5 being super-hyped

What do you think is statistics?

Why do you think it’s important?

What is Statistics?

Study or science of data.

According to the book: mathematical procedures used to summarize, analyze, and interpret observations.

The term “statistics” also refers to values that describe samples. The two uses of the word are important to know, but can be confusing! More on this later…

Data is information that is usually quantified.

Data often consists of numbers assigned to observations according to rules. This is actually the standard definition of measurement.

Your book will tell you otherwise, but it is not generally considered a branch of mathematics!

But some people say…

Statistics is hard.

I don’t like math.

I don’t like numbers.

What’s the point!

What I say is…

Data is everywhere!

Weight, height, temperature, game high score, stock indices…

Collection of data is prevalent

Businesses, government, schools…

In the academic context, research in scientific disciplines (Biology, Economics, Sociology, Psychology…)

With so much data in this world, how do we make sense of it all?

Statistics!

Why is Statistics Important?

An invaluable skill to possess and at least understand

It’s about making sense of the world’s information.

The whole world contains information.

Daily temperatures, test scores, likes vs. dislikes, Facebook

You see and use statistics all the time.

GPA, ACT, sports, media, politicians, weather, academic journal articles

Gambling?

Two Halves to Statistics

Descriptive statistics: Numbers and calculations which help to describe, characterize,

or summarize features/characteristics of data.

Inferential statistics: Numbers and calculations which use sample data to predict

the true population data. Allows us to draw inferences about what the descriptive statistics mean.

Both halves use data. Data: measurements or observations. Typically these are

numeric.

What is the singular form of data? Datum!

Also called a “score” or a “raw score.”

Descriptive Statistics

Descriptive statistics:

Numbers and calculations which help to describe, characterize, or summarize features/characteristics of data. Typically, these are presented graphically, in tables, or as summary statistics.

Examples:

Median age in Merced County is 28.

Average household size in Merced, CA is 3.18 people.

48.5% of the undergrad population at UCM is male.