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WELCOME TO WFO ALBANY’S FIRST FIRE WEATHER CONFERENCE. MARCH 15 2006. HUGH JOHNSON FIRE WEATHER PROGRAM LEADER. FIRE WEATHER SEASON. THIS YEAR BEGIN MARCH 20TH NORMALLY ENDS NOVEMBER 15 CAN BE ADJUSTED EARLIER/LATER BASED ON UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERNS. WHAT WILL WE DISCUSS TODAY?. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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WELCOME TO WFO ALBANY’S FIRST FIRE WELCOME TO WFO ALBANY’S FIRST FIRE WEATHER CONFERENCEWEATHER CONFERENCE
HUGH JOHNSONHUGH JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER PROGRAMFIRE WEATHER PROGRAM LEADER
MARCH 15 2006MARCH 15 2006
FIRE WEATHER SEASONFIRE WEATHER SEASON
• THIS YEAR BEGIN MARCH 20THTHIS YEAR BEGIN MARCH 20TH
• NORMALLY ENDS NOVEMBER 15NORMALLY ENDS NOVEMBER 15
• CAN BE ADJUSTED EARLIER/LATER CAN BE ADJUSTED EARLIER/LATER BASED ON UNUSUAL WEATHER BASED ON UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERNSPATTERNS
WHAT WILL WE DISCUSS TODAY?
• ROUTINE FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS
• SPECIAL PRODUCTS ISSUED
• HOW TO ACCESS OUR PRODUCTS
• * YOUR FEEDBACK ON THE CONFERENCE/FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS
ROUTINE WEATHER PRODUCTS INCLUDE
• FIRE PLANNING FORECAST PRODUCT (FWF)
• NATIONAL FIRE RATING DANGER SYSTEM (NFRDS) FOR MARLBORO, VT
• FIRE WEATHER GRIDS
HOW TO LOOK AT FIRE WEATHER GRIDS AND
OTHER PRODUCTS• GO TO http://www.weather.gov/aly
• CLICK ON EXPERIMENTAL FORECAST IMAGES IN LOWER RIGHT HAND CORNER
• CLICK ON FIRE WEATHER ON THE TOP
• PICK CATEGORY
SPECIAL PRODUCTS ISSUEDSPECIAL PRODUCTS ISSUED
• FIRE WEATHER WATCH (FWW)FIRE WEATHER WATCH (FWW)
• RED FLAG WARNING (RFW)RED FLAG WARNING (RFW)
• INTERNET SPOT REQUEST INTERNET SPOT REQUEST PROGAM PROGAM
FWF WEATHER FWF WEATHER PARAMETERS INCLUDEPARAMETERS INCLUDE
• TEMPERATURE AND WEATHERTEMPERATURE AND WEATHER• RELATIVE HUMIDTY (DEWPOINT)RELATIVE HUMIDTY (DEWPOINT)• WIND WIND • MIXING HEIGHT MIXING HEIGHT • TRANSPORT WINDS TRANSPORT WINDS • VENT RATEVENT RATE• LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL (LAL)LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL (LAL)• HAINES INDEXHAINES INDEX• DAVIS STABILITY INDEX (DSI)DAVIS STABILITY INDEX (DSI)
EXAMPLE OF OUR FIRE EXAMPLE OF OUR FIRE PLANNING FORECAST (FWF)PLANNING FORECAST (FWF)
LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME OF THE OTHER SOME OF THE OTHER PARAMETERS OF THE PARAMETERS OF THE FWFFWF
FIRST WE LOOK AT THE MIXING HEIGHT
• LIFT THE PARCEL DRY ADIABATICALLY
• WHEN IT INTERSECTS THE ACTUAL SOUNDING OF THE DAY IS THE MIXING HEIGHT
• CAN CHANGE QUITE A BIT DURING THE DAY
WHAT ARE THE TRANSPORT WINDS?
• THE AVERAGE WIND SPEED FROM THE GROUND TO THE MIXING HEIGHT
• AGAIN, THIS COULD VARY QUITE A BIT THROUGH THE DAY
• BOTH THESE PARAMETERS ARE AVERAGED OVER A 12-HOUR PERIOD
VENTILATION RATE ON VENTILATION RATE ON FWFFWF
• MERELY THE PRODUCT OF MERELY THE PRODUCT OF TRANSPORT WIND AND MIXING TRANSPORT WIND AND MIXING HEIGHT (YES YOU CAN DO THE HEIGHT (YES YOU CAN DO THE MATH!)MATH!)
• THE BEST WAY TO CALCULATE THE BEST WAY TO CALCULATE DISPERSIONDISPERSION
11 NONENONE
22 ISOLATED/ WIDELY ISOLATED/ WIDELY SCT/SLGHT CHC (15-24 SCT/SLGHT CHC (15-24 POP)POP)
3 SCATTERED/CHANCE (25-3 SCATTERED/CHANCE (25-54 POP) 54 POP)
4 NUMEROUS/LIKELY (55-74 4 NUMEROUS/LIKELY (55-74 POP) POP)
55 CATEGORICAL/WDSRPD CATEGORICAL/WDSRPD (>74 POP)(>74 POP)
66 LIGHTNING OF ANY KIND LIGHTNING OF ANY KIND WITHOUT ANY RAIN! WITHOUT ANY RAIN!
LIGHTNING ACTVITY (LAL)
WHAT EXACTLY IS THE WHAT EXACTLY IS THE HAINES INDEX ON THE HAINES INDEX ON THE
FWF?FWF?
• DEVELOPED BY DONALD HAINES DEVELOPED BY DONALD HAINES WITH THE USDA FOREST SERVICE IN WITH THE USDA FOREST SERVICE IN 1988.1988.
• AN INDEX THAT GIVES AN AN INDEX THAT GIVES AN INDICATION FOR A FIRE “BLOW-UP” INDICATION FOR A FIRE “BLOW-UP” LEADING TO EXTREME FIRE LEADING TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. BEHAVIOR.
HOW IS THE HAINES INDEX HOW IS THE HAINES INDEX CALCULATEDCALCULATED
• STABILITY (T950-T850) + A MOISTURE STABILITY (T950-T850) + A MOISTURE TERM (Td925-Td850)TERM (Td925-Td850)
• STABILITY TERMSTABILITY TERM– 1 = 3 DEG C OR LESS1 = 3 DEG C OR LESS– 2 = 4-7 DEG C 2 = 4-7 DEG C – 3= 8 DEG C OR MORE3= 8 DEG C OR MORE
• MOISTURE TERMMOISTURE TERM– 1= 5 DEG C OR LESS1= 5 DEG C OR LESS– 2= 6-9 DEG C2= 6-9 DEG C– 3= 10 DEG C OR MORE 3= 10 DEG C OR MORE
FINAL HAINES RESULT FINAL HAINES RESULT
• SIMPLY ADD TWO TERMSSIMPLY ADD TWO TERMS
• RANGES FROM 2-6RANGES FROM 2-6
• 2-3 VERY LOW (STABLE)2-3 VERY LOW (STABLE)
• 4 LOW (NEUTRAL)4 LOW (NEUTRAL)
• 5 MODERATE (UNSTABLE)5 MODERATE (UNSTABLE)
• 6 HIGH (VERY UNSTABLE) 6 HIGH (VERY UNSTABLE)
WHY HAINES?WHY HAINES?
• HIGH HAINES INDEX STRONGLY HIGH HAINES INDEX STRONGLY CORRELAES WITH A DANGEROUS CORRELAES WITH A DANGEROUS PLUME DOMINATED FIRE!PLUME DOMINATED FIRE!
DAVIS STABILITY INDEX DAVIS STABILITY INDEX (DSI)(DSI)
• IS SIMPLY THE LAPSE RATE BETWEEN THE IS SIMPLY THE LAPSE RATE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 850MB LEVELSURFACE AND 850MB LEVEL
• ADVANTAGESADVANTAGES– MAKES USE OF THE LEVEL WE LIVEMAKES USE OF THE LEVEL WE LIVE
– VERY EASY TO CALCULATEVERY EASY TO CALCULATE
• DISADVANTAGESDISADVANTAGES– STILL DOES NOT FACTOR IN ANY LOW LEVEL STILL DOES NOT FACTOR IN ANY LOW LEVEL
INVERSIONSINVERSIONS
– NOT AS WELL DOCUMENTED AS HAINESNOT AS WELL DOCUMENTED AS HAINES
THRESHOLD OF D.S.I.THRESHOLD OF D.S.I.
• (TMX-T850) LESS THAN 10C = STBL(TMX-T850) LESS THAN 10C = STBL
• (TMX-T850) 10-14C = COND UNSTBL(TMX-T850) 10-14C = COND UNSTBL
• (TMAX-T850) 15-17C= UNSTBL (TMAX-T850) 15-17C= UNSTBL
• (TMAX-T850) > 17C=VRY UNSTBL(TMAX-T850) > 17C=VRY UNSTBL
HOW DO CAN YOU ACCESS THE FWF???
• GO TO http://www.weather.gov/
• CLICK ON FIRE WEATHER LINK ON THE RIGHT SIDE IN THE BLUE AREA
• ONCE THERE, CLICK WHERE ON FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
• IF NOT CURRENT PLEASE CALL US AT 1-800-239-2123!
WHAT IS NFDRSWHAT IS NFDRS
• NATIONAL FIRE DANGER NATIONAL FIRE DANGER RATING SYSTEMRATING SYSTEM
THE NFDRS IS A NUMERIC THE NFDRS IS A NUMERIC SCALING OF THE SCALING OF THE POTENTIAL OVER A LARGE POTENTIAL OVER A LARGE AREA FOR FIRE TO IGNITE, AREA FOR FIRE TO IGNITE, SPREAD AND REQUIRE FIRE SPREAD AND REQUIRE FIRE SUPPRESSION ACTION. SUPPRESSION ACTION. UTILITZED BY MOST STATE UTILITZED BY MOST STATE AND FEDERAL AGENCIES. AND FEDERAL AGENCIES.
MORE ON NFDRSMORE ON NFDRS
• ROUTINE SPOT FORECAST FOR ROUTINE SPOT FORECAST FOR MARLBORO, VT (42 50 16 LAT 72 44 06 MARLBORO, VT (42 50 16 LAT 72 44 06 LON)LON)
• 1686 FEET ABOVE SEA-LEVEL 1686 FEET ABOVE SEA-LEVEL
• ISSUED ONLY DURING THE ISSUED ONLY DURING THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AFTERNOON PACKAGE
RED FLAG WARNING/FIRE RED FLAG WARNING/FIRE WEATHER WATCHWEATHER WATCH
• CRITERIA DURING NON-LEAF SYSTEMCRITERIA DURING NON-LEAF SYSTEM• FIVE DAYS OF NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (0.25 FIVE DAYS OF NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (0.25
INCHES)INCHES)• FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 30 FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 30
PERCENTPERCENT• WIND GUSTS 25 MPH OR HIGHERWIND GUSTS 25 MPH OR HIGHER• CONDITIONS FOR THREE HOURS OR MORE CONDITIONS FOR THREE HOURS OR MORE • EVENT WITHIN 12 HOURS ISSUE A WARNING EVENT WITHIN 12 HOURS ISSUE A WARNING • 12-48 HOURS ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH12-48 HOURS ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH• ISSUED THROUGH GFE ISSUED THROUGH GFE
CRITERIA FOR RFW DURING CRITERIA FOR RFW DURING LEAF-OUTLEAF-OUT
• EIGHT STRAIGHT DAYS OF NO EIGHT STRAIGHT DAYS OF NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (.25 INCHES)SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (.25 INCHES)
• WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY SAME AS BEFORESAME AS BEFORE
• KETCHUM DROUGHT INDEX > 300KETCHUM DROUGHT INDEX > 300
• http://www.fs.fed.us/land/wfas/kbdi.gifhttp://www.fs.fed.us/land/wfas/kbdi.gif
ELEVATED FIRE ELEVATED FIRE AWARENESSAWARENESS
• CLOSE TO BUT NOT MEETING RED CLOSE TO BUT NOT MEETING RED FLAG WARNING/WATCH CRITERIAFLAG WARNING/WATCH CRITERIA
• TWO OUT OF THREE FACTORS METTWO OUT OF THREE FACTORS MET• COULD INCLUDE HIGH HAINES COULD INCLUDE HIGH HAINES
INDEX (6)INDEX (6)• ADDRESS THROUGH THE ADDRESS THROUGH THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO)(HWO)
IF WE ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH, RED FLAG WARNING OR AN
ELEVATED FIRE AWARENESS IT WILL
AUTOMATICALLY SHOW UP ON OUR THE MAP OF OUR
HOME PAGE!
SPOT FORECAST REQUESTSPOT FORECAST REQUEST
• ISSUE ONLY WHEN GOVERNMENT ISSUE ONLY WHEN GOVERNMENT AGENCY REQUESTS (DEPT OF FORESTRY)AGENCY REQUESTS (DEPT OF FORESTRY)
• GO TO OUR INTERNET SITE AND PULL GO TO OUR INTERNET SITE AND PULL RIGHT UPRIGHT UP
• CLICK UNDER FIRE AND RIGHT THERE AT CLICK UNDER FIRE AND RIGHT THERE AT THE TOP OF THE PAGETHE TOP OF THE PAGE
• KEETCHUM DROUGHT UPDATE AND LOTS KEETCHUM DROUGHT UPDATE AND LOTS OF FIRE WEATHER INFO THEREOF FIRE WEATHER INFO THERE
• A SPECIAL THANKS TO INGRID FOR HER A SPECIAL THANKS TO INGRID FOR HER HARD WORK!HARD WORK!
OPEN FORUMOPEN FORUM• FIRE WEATHER AFD
• FORMAT (KNOTS/MPH)
• UPDATE FWF CRITERIA
• DSI EVEN USEFUL?
• OPERATIONAL INPUT– 800-239-2123
• OTHER ISSUES
PLEASE SEND ALL PLEASE SEND ALL COMMENTS TO MECOMMENTS TO ME
Hugh.W. [email protected]. [email protected]
518-435-9581518-435-9581
800-239-2123800-239-2123
WRAP-UPWRAP-UP
• GAVE OUT FORMGAVE OUT FORM
• ON THE INTERNETON THE INTERNET
• REPORT CARD ON HOW WE ARE REPORT CARD ON HOW WE ARE DOINGDOING
• PLEASE LEAVE ME YOUR PHONE PLEASE LEAVE ME YOUR PHONE NUMBER AND EMAIL ADDRESSNUMBER AND EMAIL ADDRESS
• THANKS FOR ATTENDINGTHANKS FOR ATTENDING
HOW ABOUT HOW ABOUT DOING IT AGAIN IN DOING IT AGAIN IN THE FALL?THE FALL?
TO SEE HOW WE TO SEE HOW WE DID!DID!
POSSIBLE FALL DATE