Well-to-Wheels Analysis Well-to-Wheels Analysis

of Future Automotive Fuels and of Future Automotive Fuels and Powertrains in the EU contextPowertrains in the EU context

IMMISSIONI & EMISSIONIIMMISSIONI & EMISSIONI

MILANO – 16th December 2008MILANO – 16th December 2008

What is the Well-to-Wheels study ?

It is a Life-Cycle Analysis restricted to quantitative aspects:

• Green-House Gases (GHG)

• Energy efficiency

• Direct costs to “EU inc.”

The study aims at clarifying the following issue:

• How to compare different ways to reduce GHG gases from passenger cars, in the 2010-2020 time frame?

• Efficiency ? Availability ? Costs ?

• The study estimates the energy balance GHG balance, costs, and availability of ALL technically feasible and alternative fuels from all sources with a significant potential to replace oil-based fuels. Derived figures include cost of GHG avoidance and cost of fossil road-fuel substitution for each alternative fuel process

The WTW analysis is:• A CONSENSUAL REFERENCE STUDY

• TRANSPARENT - ALL assumptions and input data specified and accessible

• STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT- oil/car/biofuels….industries are collaborating

- Several Peer Review Meetings

- Many improvements achieved using stakeholder suggestions

Resource

Crude oil

Coal

Natural Gas

Biomass

Wind

Nuclear

Well-to-Wheels Pathways

Powertrains

Spark Ignition:Gasoline, LPG, CNG, Ethanol, H2

Compression Ignition: Diesel, DME, Bio-diesel

Fuel Cell

Hybrids: SI, CI, FC

Hybrid Fuel Cell + Reformer

Fuels

Conventional Gasoline/Diesel/Naphtha

Synthetic Diesel

CNG (inc. biogas)

LPG

MTBE/ETBE

Hydrogen(compressed / liquid)

Methanol

DME

Ethanol

Bio-diesel (inc. FAEE)

GXCH: Compressed Hydrogen from piped or remote NGTotal

primary energy

consumed

CO2 CH4 N2O CO2 eq

MJ/MJ g/MJ g/MJ g/MJ g/MJGPCH1a Piped NG, 7000 km, on-site reforming

NG Extraction & Processing 0.04 2.0 0.15 0.000 5.1

NG Transport 0.29 15.0 0.33 0.001 22.1NG Distribution 0.01 0.8 0.00 0.000 0.8On-site reforming 0.52 83.9 0.02 0.000 84.5On-site delivery 0.20 7.7 0.02 0.000 8.2Total chain 1.07 109.4 0.52 0.001 120.7

GPCH1b Piped NG, 4000 km, on-site reformingNG Extraction & Processing 0.04 1.8 0.14 0.000 4.6

NG Transport 0.14 7.1 0.19 0.000 11.1NG Distribution 0.01 0.8 0.00 0.000 0.8On-site reforming 0.52 83.9 0.02 0.000 84.5On-site delivery 0.20 7.7 0.02 0.000 8.2Total chain 0.91 101.3 0.37 0.001 109.3

GMCH1 NG EU-mix, 1000 km, on-site reformingNG Extraction & Processing 0.04 1.7 0.1 0.0 4.4

NG Transport 0.03 1.7 0.0 0.0 2.7NG Distribution 0.01 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.9On-site reforming 0.52 85.8 0.0 0.0 86.4On-site delivery 0.20 7.7 0.0 0.0 8.2Total chain 0.81 97.8 0.22 0.001 102.5

MJMJ non renewable primary input / MJMJ in the tank

GHG(g)GHG(g) in CO2 eq. / MJMJ in the tank

WTT Pathways WTT Pathways DecompositionDecomposition

Tank-to-Wheels MatrixPowertrains PISI DISI DICI Hybrid

PISIHybridDISI

HybridDICI

FC HybridFC

Ref. +hyb. FC

FuelsGasoline 2002

2010+2002

2010+2010+ 2010+ 2010+

Diesel fuel 20022010+

2010+ 2010+

LPG 2002 2010+

CNG Bi-Fuel 20022010+

CNG (dedicated) 20022010+

2010+

Diesel/Bio-diesel blend95/5

20022010+

2010+

Gasoline/Ethanol blend95/5

20022010+

20022010+

2010+

Bio-diesel 20022010+

20022010+

MTBE/ETBE 20022010+

20022010+

20022010+

20022010+

DME 20022010+

2010+

FT Diesel fuel 20022010+

2010+

Methanol 2010+

Naphtha 2010+

Compressed hydrogen 2010+ 2010+ 2010+ 2010+

Liquid hydrogen 2010+ 2010+ 2010+ 2010+

Vehicle Assumptions

Advisor Freeware ModelAdvisor Freeware Model

0.15 0.150.2

0.25 0.25

0.25

0.3

Vehicles simulations with ADVISOR FreewareThe entire vehicle + powertrain must be described

Data collection from manufacturers and others, helped by a data logger (sample below)

VEHICLE DEFINITION

Variable name Type Unit ADVISOR name FIATMultipla

First coefficient of rolling resistance Scalar -- veh_1st_rrc 0.01Second coefficient of rolling resistance Scalar s/m veh_2nd_rrc 0.00Coefficient of aerodynamic drag Scalar -- veh_CD 0.36Vehicle frontal area Scalar m2 veh_FA 2.60Height of the vehicle center of gravity Scalar m veh_cg_height 0.50Fraction of total vehicle mass Scalar -- veh_front_wt_fraction 0.60Distance between front and rear axle Scalar m veh_wheelbase 2.67Mass of the vehicle without components Scalar kg veh_glider_mass 900Test mass including fluids, passengers and cargo Scalar kg veh_mass unknownCargo mass Scalar kg veh_cargo_mass 200

FUEL CONVERTER - CONVENTIONAL

Variable name Type Unit ADVISOR name FIATMultipla

Engine size (cylinder displacement) Scalar L fc_disp 1.9Vector of engine speed used to index other variables Vector rad/s fc_map_spd 73-605Vector of engine torque used to index other variables Vector N*m fc_map_trq 0.0-144Fuel use indexed by engine speed and torque Matrix g/s fc_fuel_map 14-100Engine out CO indexed by engine speed and torque Matrix g/s fc_co_map 0-100Engine out HC indexed by engine speed and torque Matrix g/s fc_hc_map 0-100Engine out NOx indexed by engine speed and torque Matrix g/s fc_nox_map 0-100Engine out PM indexed by engine speed and torque Matrix g/s fc_pm_map 0-100Fuel density Scalar g/L fc_fuel_den 749Lower heating value of the fuel Scalar J/g fc_fuel_lhv 42600Rotational inertia of the engine Scalar kg*m2 fc_inertia 0.1Maximum torque output indexed by engine speed Vector N*m fc_max_trq 113-144Fraction of waste heat that goes to exhaust Scalar -- fc_ex_pwr_frac 0.4Engine coolant thermostat set temperature Scalar C fc_tstat 96Average heat capacity of engine Scalar J/kg/K fc_cp 500Average heat capacity of hood and engine Scalar J/kg/K fc_h_cp 500Surface area of hood and engine compartment Scalar m2 fc_hood_area 1.5

Main OUTPUTS:On the European Cycle (ECE-EUDC), the results concern:

••MJMJ/km/kmnecessary to perform the NEDC cycle

••GHG(g/km)GHG(g/km)in CO2eq.emitted along the cycle

Tank-to-Wheels studyTank-to-Wheels studyVehicles Performance & EmissionsVehicles Performance & Emissions

Time lag for 0-100 km/h

[s]

< 13

> 30

Gradeability at 1 km/h

[%]

> 180 > 600

Range

(20 km ZEVRange)

[km]

Top speed

Continuous

[km/h]

Time lag for 0-50 km/h

[s]

Time lag for 80-120 km/h

in 4th gear

[s]

Acceleration

[m/s²]

< 4

< 13> 4.5

Minimum Vehicle Performance Set

All technologies fulfil at least minimal customer performance criteriaAll technologies fulfil at least minimal customer performance criteria

“ “Vehicle / Fuel” combinations comply with emissions regulationsVehicle / Fuel” combinations comply with emissions regulations

The 2002 vehicles comply with Euro IIIThe 2002 vehicles comply with Euro III

The 2010The 2010++ vehicles comply with EU IV vehicles comply with EU IV

Cost of fossil fuels substitution and CO2 avoided

Some cost elements are dependent on scale (e.g. distribution infrastructure, number of alternative vehicles etc)

As a common calculation basis we assumed that 5% of the relevant vehicle fleet (SI, CI or both) converts to the alternative fuel– This is not a forecast, simply a way of comparing each fuel

option under the same conditions – If this portion of the EU transportation demand were to be

replaced by alternative fuels and powertrain technologies, the GHG savings vs. incremental costs would be as indicated

Costs of CO2 avoided are calculated from incremental capital and operating costs for fuel production and distribution, and for the vehicle

The costs, as calculated, are valid for a steady-state situation where 5% of the relevant conventional fuels have been replaced by an alternative. Additional costs are likely to be incurred during the transition period, especially where a new distribution infrastructure is required.

Costing basis We considered the cost from a macro-economic point of view (cost

to “EU inc.”)– The cost of internationally traded commodities is the market

price whether imported or produced within Europe (unless the production cost in Europe is higher)

– The 12% capital charge excludes the tax element (internal) Cost elements considered

– For fuels produced within Europe• Raw material cost• Production cost (capital charge + fixed operating costs +

energy/chemicals costs)– For imported fuels: market price– Distribution and retail costs– Additional cost of alternative vehicles (compared to state-of-the-

art gasoline PISI)

Costing basis: oil price

Oil price is important because– It sets the cost of fossil fuels– It influences the cost of virtually all other materials

and services We have considered two oil price scenarios

– 25 €/bbl (30 $/bbl)– 50 €/bbl (60 $/bbl)

All other cost elements are adjusted according to an “Oil Cost Factor” (OCF) representing the fraction of the cost element that will follow the oil price

Additional cost of alternative 2010+ vehicles

Base: Gasoline PISI

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

DISI G

asoli

ne

PISI C

NG

PISI L

PG

DICI D

iesel

DICI +

DPF D

iesel

DICI D

ME

PISI C

-H2

700

bar

PISI L

-H2

DISI H

yb. G

asoli

ne

PISI H

yb. C

NG

DICI H

yb. D

iesel

DICI H

yb. +

DPF D

iesel

PISI H

yb. C

-H2

700

bar

PISI H

yb. L

-H2

FC C

-H2

700

bar

FC L

-H2

FC H

yb. C

-H2

700

bar

FC H

yb. L

-H2

Ref+F

C Hyb

. Gas

oline

Ref+F

C Hyb

. Met

hano

l

ICEs FCsHybrids

Road fuels and vehicle market assumptions: Substitution scenario

Total Gasoline Diesel

Fuels market 2015(1)

Total Mt/a 93 204Mtoe/a 305 95 209PJ/a 12790 3996 8794

Fuel to passenger cars 100% 33%PJ/a 6928 3996 2932

Vehicle population

Passenger car population(1) M 247 156 91Specific fuel consumption GJ/car/a 25.7 32.1Vehicle lifetime Years 13 15New vehicle sales M/a 18.1 12.0 6.1Energy and GHG of model vehicle 2010+ ICE

Average PISI CIDI/DPFTTW energy MJ/km 1.84 1.90 1.77WTW energy MJ/km 2.12 2.16 2.05WTW GHG g/km 161 164 156Distance driven Per vehicle km/a 13517 18157 Total Tm/a 3763 2103 1659Refuelling stations k 100Substitution scenario 5% of distance driven

Total Gasoline DieselDistance driven Tm/a 188 105 83Conventional fuels substituted PJ/a 346 200 147Alternative vehicle sales M/a 0.90 0.60 0.30Required ref. stations coverage k 20.0Base GHG emissions Mt/a 30.3 17.3 13.0(1) Source: [Wood MacKenzie 2005]

These figures are for replacing like for like and may not be representative of

an evolving car market

Total demand and gasoline/diesel ratio

significantly changed

from version 1

Car population figure reduced from version 1

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Total WTW energy (MJ / 100 km)

WT

W G

HG

em

iss

ion

s (

g C

O2e

q /

km

Gasoline

Diesel fuel

LPG

CNG

CBG

EtOH ex SB

EtOH ex wheat

EtOH ex cellulose

EtOH ex sugar cane

MTBE/ETBE

Bio-diesel

Syn-diesel ex NG

Syn-diesel ex coal

Syn-diesel ex wood

DME ex NG

DME ex coal

DME ex wood

Overall picture: GHG v. total energyLiquid fuels, DME/LPG/CNG/CBG

Alternative fuels are generally

less energy-efficient

than conventional ones

2010+ vehicles

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Total WTW energy (MJ / 100 km)

WT

W G

HG

em

iss

ion

s (

g C

O 2eq /

km

Gasoline

Diesel fuel

C-H2 ex NG, ICE

C-H2 ex NG, FC

C-H2 ex coal, ICE

C-H2 ex coal, FC

C-H2 ex wood, ICE

C-H2 ex wood, FC

C-H2 ex NG+ely, ICE

C-H2 ex NG+ely, FC

C-H2 ex coal+ely, ICE

C-H2 ex coal+ely, FC

C-H2 ex wood+ely, ICE

C-H2ex wood+ely, FC

C-H2 ex nuclear elec, ICE

C-H2 ex nuclear elec, FC

C-H2 ex wind elec, ICE

C-H2 ex wind elec, FC

C-H2 ex EU-mix elec, ICE

C-H2 ex EU-mix elec, FC

L-H2 ex NG, ICE

L-H2 ex NG, FC

L-H2 ex wood, ICE

L-H2 ex wood, FC

L-H2 ex EU-mix elec, ICE

L-H2 ex EU-mix elec, FC

L-H2 ex NG+ely, ICE

L-H2 ex NG+ely, FC

L-H2 ex coal+ely, ICE

L-H2 ex coal+ely, FC

Overall picture: GHG v. total energyHydrogen

Most hydrogen pathways

are energy-intensive

2010+ vehicles

Overall picture: GHG mitigation Costs

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

€/t CO2 avoided

€ s

pen

t / to

nne

foss

il fu

el s

ubst

itute

d

DME wood

EtOH sugar beet

EtOH wheat

Bio-diesel (RME)

CNG (4000 km) PISI (BF)

CNG (LNG) PISI (BF)

CBG PISI (BF)

LPG (BF)

Syn-diesel wood BL

DME wood BL

EtOH wood

EtOH straw

Syn-diesel wood

Liquid fuels from wood: integrated in paper mills

Conventional biofuels in EU

Liquid fuels from wood:free-standing processes

Ethanol from straw

OIL PRICE 50 EUROs/barrel

Compressed biogas

cost

of re

pla

cing d

iese

l or

gas

olin

e (€

/tonne)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

€/t CO2 avoided

€ s

pen

t / to

nne

foss

il fu

el s

ubst

itute

d

DME wood

EtOH sugar beet

EtOH wheat

Bio-diesel (RME)

CNG (4000 km) PISI (BF)

CNG (LNG) PISI (BF)

CBG PISI (BF)

LPG (BF)

Syn-diesel wood BL

DME wood BL

EtOH wood

EtOH straw

Syn-diesel wood

Liquid fuels from wood: integrated in paper mills

Conventional biofuels in EU

Liquid fuels from wood:free-standing processes

Ethanol from straw

OIL PRICE 50 EUROs/barrel

Compressed biogas

cost

of re

pla

cing d

iese

l or

gas

olin

e (€

/tonne)

CONCLUSIONS:

Easy to do worse, even with advanced technologies…

To do better than conventional vehicles, you have to pay, and the study is useful to rank and compare

No single fuel pathway offers a short term route to high volumes of “low carbon” fuel: contributions from a number of technologies/routes will be needed.

Conventional biofuels save GHG if made on EU set-aside land, but the GHG saving per € and per ha is much worse than in other sectors

Well-to-Wheels Analysis Well-to-Wheels Analysis

JEC Study HistoryJEC Study History

Version 1: 2001 – 2003•Version 1 published December 2003•Workshop at JRC 2004 to review and start of updates

Version 2: 2004 – 2005 •Version 2a published May 2006•Biomass availability workshop May 2006•Version 2b published December 2006•Version 2c published May 2007 after small corrections

Version 3: 2007 – 2008 (MAINLY FUELS UP-DATE)Preliminary results published these daysFull release expected first quarter 2009

Version 4: 2008 – 2010 (MAINLY “CARS” UP-DATE)Expected first quarter 2010

Download: http://ies.jrc.cec.eu.int/wtw.html

> 40.00040.000 visitors and > 15.00015.000 downloads (latest version)

Better input data TBS to: infoWTW@jrc.itBetter input data TBS to: infoWTW@jrc.it

Well-to-Wheels Analysis Well-to-Wheels Analysis of Future Automotive Fuels and of Future Automotive Fuels and

PowertrainsPowertrains

THETHE

ENDENDMany ThanksMany Thanks

Some more technological bits….

Source: PSA