We’re Not All The Same! · the people who are ... Source: Brookings Institution, Loney and Yanelis,2015, “A Crisis in Student ... Millennials –Thriving Vs. Striving 60. 61

We’re Not All The Same!Exploring the DIVERSITY in Millennials

Jason Dunkel

[email protected]

647-259-2811

@jdunkel_ea

Worldwide Millennials are In need of Some PR

2

“Generation Maybe”

“The Curling Generation”

“nagara-zoku”the people who are

always doing two things at once

“ken lao zu”the generation that

eats the old

I Swear, We’re Not All The Same!!!!

3

Agenda• Introduction

• Demographic Trends

• Millennials – What Makes Them Different?

• Millennials – Thriving vs. Striving

4

Who am I?

• Started at Environics Analytics in 2008

• Spent 4 years in product management and software development

• Began specializing as consultant in Travel and Tourism in 2012

• TTRA Canada President, board member since 2013

Jason Dunkel

5

Our Focus

Insights

ActionEvaluation

Demographic Trends

8

A GROWING POPULATION

Demographic Trends

9

A Growing Population

10

0.9

1.1

0.9

1.2

0.8

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1971-72 1976-77 1981-82 1986-87 1991-92 1996-97 2001-02 2006-07 2011-12 2016-17

Pop

ula

tio

n G

row

th R

ate

(%)

Pop

ula

tio

n (

mill

ion

s)

Population (millions) Population Growth Rate (%)

Source: World Bank

Population and Annual Growth Rate, US

A Growing Population

11

Source: Statistics Canada, Demographic Estimates

0.9

1.11.2

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1971-72 1981-82 1991-92 2001-02 2011-12 2021-22 2031-32 2041-42

Pop

ula

tio

n G

row

th R

ate

(%)

Pop

ula

tio

n (

mill

ion

s)

Population (millions) Population Growth Rate (%)

2017

Projections

Population and Annual Growth Rate, US

12

INCREASING DIVERSITY

Demographic Trends

13

Changing Families – Households by Type

14

One person27%

Other Non-Family

6%Couple without children

29%

Couple with children

20%

Lone-parent10%

Other Family

8%

Source: Nielsen Pop-Facts 2015

2015

One person23%

Other Non-Family

3%Couple without children

30%

Couple with children

31%

Lone-parent

8%

Other Family5%

1980

1987 2009

15

Families Have changed

Immigration

16

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015

Mill

ion

s

Immigrants Percent - USA

Immigrants as a Percentage of Population, USA

Immigration

17

7562

39

2316 12 11

0

-

1

1

1 1 1

9

19

33

44 52

53 51

- 1

1 2 3 4

5

8 9 19 26 26 28 30

10 9 6 4 3 2 2

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015

Canada

Asia

Africa

Latin America

Oceania

Europe

Source: World Bank Health Nutrition and Population Statistics Population estimates and projections

%

Immigrants by Region, USA (%)

1972

19

In 1950s New York a second-generation Sicilian crime lord transforms from reluctant family outsider to mafia boss.

2015

On Canada’s West Coast (present day), second- and third-generation Indian immigrants compete with rival gangs to demand respect.

20

21

Canada’s National Pastime…

22

…IS Comparing Ourselves to The US

Percentage Foreign Born

23

20%13%

Source: Nielsen Pop-Facts 2016, Environics Analytics DemoStats 2016

Visible Minority Status

25

Non-White 25%

White 75%

Non-White 38%

White 62%


Very Different Ethnic Mix

26

2%

4%

14%

3%

1%

Other

Aboriginal

Asian

Black

Hispanic

6%

1%

5%

11%

16%

Other

Aboriginal

Asian

Black

Hispanic


27

INCOME DISTRIBUTION

Demographic Trends

28

Average Household INcome

29

$77KUSD

$95KCAD (70.9K USD)


Population Distribution

31

6 Largest CMAs47%

Other CMAs26%

Smaller Urban11%

Rural Small Towns17%

6 Largest CBSAs20%

Other CBSAs (>100K)

66%

Smaller Urban

8%

Rural Small Towns

6%


Income Distribution

32

6 Largest CMAs45%

Other CMAs26%

Smaller Urban12%

Rural Small Towns17%

6 Largest CBSAs24%

Others CBSAs (>100K)69%

Smaller Urban

7%

Rural Small Towns

1%


I…SEE…OLD PEOPLE…33

AGING POPULATION

Demographic Trends

34

AGING Population

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011

Age 65+

Age 0-14

Percent of Total Population, USA

Source: World Bank 2017

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041

Aging Population

ProjectionsAge 65+

Age 0-14

2017

Percent of Total Population, USA


Median Age Explains Differences

Source: CIA World Factbook 2015

37

41.737.6Years OLD Years OLD

Median Age

Source: CIA World Factbook 2015

38

41.737.6 27.3Years OLD Years OLD Years OLD

Very Different Demographic Paths

39

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Pop

ula

tio

n (

00

0s)

Year

USA Canada Mexico

Total Population


Very Different Demographic FUTURES

40

-0.4%

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

An

nu

al G

row

th (

%)

USA Canada Mexico

Projected Population Growth %


Changing Family Structures

41

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Fert

ility

Rat

e

Year

USA Canada Mexico

Historical Fertility Rates


Median Age – Past and Future

42

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Med

ian

Age

Year

USA Canada Mexico


Median Age by Year

Very Different Generational Classifications

43

19%

27%

20%

24%

9%

16%

27%

20%

26%

11%

28%

34%

20%

14%

4%

Gen We (?)0-14

Millennials15-34

GenX35-49

Boomer50-69

GreatestGeneration

70+

USA Canada Mexico


Most Depressing Slide of The Day

44

Projected Population by Generation, USA

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047

Mill

ion

s

Millennials

Generation X

Boomers

Pre-Boomers


Cheer Up, Boomers!

45

Millennials: What Makes Them Different?

46

Millennials have arrived

47

Marriage Has Been Trending…

48

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Male Female

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses, 1890 to 1940, and Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements, 1947 to 2015.

Age

Year

Median Age at First Marriage

Marriage Has Been Trending…

49

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

Male Female

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses, 1890 to 1940, and Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements, 1947 to 2015.

Age

Year

Median Age at First Marriage

Jason

Jessica

DANGER ZONE!!!!!

50

Homeownership, Under Age of 35, United States

Lower Levels of Home Ownership

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

%

37

.1

37

.7

38

.8

38

.6

39

.0

39

.4

40

.5

40

.4

41 41

.7

42

.3

43

.3

42

.3

41

.7

41

.3

39

.8

38

.9

37

.9

36

.8

36

.8

36

.2

34

.6

34

.2

'94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

8% 10% 8% 10%7% 9%

20%

25%

19%

21%

18% 17%

6%

9%

7%

9%

8% 9%

2%

2%

2%

2%

3% 1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2% 1%36%

46%

37%

44%

37% 37%

Male Female Male Female Male Female

Doctorate Degree

Professional Degree >Bachelor's

Master's Degree

Bachelor's Degree

Associate's Degree

FEMALES Continue TO LEAD THE WAY

Source: US Census Bureau American Community Survey, 2014

Educational Attainment – USA

Millennials Gen X Boomers

FEMALES Continue TO LEAD THE WAY

52

21%

33%

12%

16%

33%

31%

35%

20%

26%

40%

18%

27%

6%

68%

77%

46%

47%

62%

60%

63%

45%

50%

64%

40%

49%

26%

Optometrists

Veterinarians

Podiatrists

Dentists

Photographers

Jewelers and precious stone and metal workers

Natural sciences managers

Environmental scientists and geoscientists

Physicians and surgeons

Pharmacists

Morticians, undertakers, and funeral directors

Lawyers

Atmospheric and space scientists

Boomers (50-69)

Millennials (15-34)

Percent Female by Occupation – USA

Source: US Census Bureau American Community Survey, 2014

FEMALES Continue to lead The Way

53

57 6172

21 18

10

13 12 116 7 53 2 2

Millennials Gen X Boomers

Other

Asian

Black

Hispanic

White

54

Race/Ethnicity (%), United States, 2014

Millennials are more culturally diverse

Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2014 March Current Population Survey from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS)

%

The New Normal

55

16

21 21 21 2225

29

37

1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

56

Percentage of under 40 Households Owing Student Debt

United States

More student debt

Source: Pew Research Centre, Young Adults, Student Debt and Economic Wellbeing, 2014

%

Median Student Loan Debt (2014)

Bigger Student Debt

Source: Brookings Institution, Loney and Yanelis,2015, “A Crisis in Student Loans? How Changes in the Characteristics of Borrowers and the Institutions They Attend Contributed to Rising Loan Defaults.”

5,282

19,647

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

57

NOT A GOOD TIME TO BE A MALE MILLENNIAL…

Millennials: Thriving Vs. Striving

59

BACKGROUND - GEODEMOGRAPHY

Millennials – Thriving Vs. Striving

60

61

Birds of a Feather Flock Together

And That’s the Goosepel Truth

YEEEAAAAAAAHHH!!!!

62

63

64

DEMOGRAPHICS

$72,000

DEMOGRAPHICS

$82,000

< 35Years

Middle Aged

65

66

DEMOGRAPHICS

$175,000

DEMOGRAPHICS

$82,000

67

DEMOGRAPHICS

$175,000

Let’s Take a Closer Look

68

Not All Millennials Are Created Equal

THRIVING

STRIVING

Thriving Millennials

70

Striving Millennials

71

Socioeconomic status: A major differentiator

72

Income $52K

THRIVING STRIVING

Administrative, Food Services, Retail

31%with Associates degree or higher

46%with Associates degree or higher

Finance, Insurance, Professional services, Information , Food Services

$76K

Education

Occupation

Source: Nielsen PRIZM Premier, Pop-Facts 2015

Very Different travel Behaviours

73

Booked a flight for personal/vacationPast 12 Months

Booked a stay at a hotel/motelPast 12 Months

62%

THRIVING STRIVING

45%

50%

30%

Source: Nielsen PRIZM Premier, Consumer Profiles 2015

Very Different Leisure Behaviours

74

Skiing/SnowboardingPast 12 Months

Hiking/BackpackingPast 12 Months

23%

THRIVING STRIVING

7%

15%

2%


Very Different travel Behaviours

75

Domestic TravelPast 12 Months

Los Angeles

New York City

Las Vegas 5%

4%

6%

11%

8%

11%

International TravelPast 3 Years

Canada

Europe

Caribbean

5%

5%

9%

8%

11%

13%

THRIVING STRIVING


STRIVING Millennials:PRIMACY OF THE FAMILY

Source: Nielsen PRIZM Premier, American Values Survey

77

STriving Millennials:Adaptability to Complexity


THRIVING Millennials:CULTURE SAMPLING


THRIVING Millennials:Effort Towards Health


Both millenial groups feel A void in their lives

80

STRIVING AND THRIVING Millennials:Anomie/Aimlessness


Me in My Teens:

81

“Don’t Tell Me What To Do”

“Please Tell Me What To Do”Me in My 20s:

So, IN SUMMARY• Both the US and Canada are changing – more

diversity, urbanization, different families

• Millennials are growing up in a world that is different than we’ve ever seen before

• We’re not all the same!!!

82

THANK YOU!

Jason Dunkel

[email protected]

@jdunkel_ea

83

Documents

We’re Not All The Same! · the people who are ... Source: Brookings Institution, Loney and Yanelis,2015, “A Crisis in Student ... Millennials –Thriving Vs. Striving 60. 61