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1
Monitoring Impacts of EU - Infrastructure Programmes
Werner Rothengatter
Universität Karlsruhe (TH)
2Monitoring Impacts of EU - Infrastructure Programmes
1 Introduction2 Transeuropean Networks3 Strategic Assessment4 Assessment with CBA and CGE/SDM5 Megaprojects and their Risks6 Financing Issues7 Monitoring and the Role of NGOs
31 Introduction
1 White Paper and the TEN Revision 20042 European Interest versus Country Interest3 Increasing Complexity: PPP and Concession
Finance4 Experience from Megaprojects5 Failures in Public and Private Regimes6 Necessity of an Independent Observatory7 Particular Role of NGOs
4
European Policy Guide:White Paper 2001: Time to Decide
1 Shifting the balance between modes of transport
2 Eliminating bottlenecks
3 Placing the users at the heart of transport policy
4 Managing the globalisation of transport
2 Transeuropean Networks
5
2 TEN
63 TEN Strategic AssessmentCriteria for Selecting the Corridors
1 Accessibility
2 Traffic Loads/Bottlenecks; Share of International Traffic
3 Economic Impacts (Generalised Cost , Time Savings and Cost Reductions)
4 Environmental Impacts
7
3 TEN
Assess
8
3 TENAssess
9
The costs caused by road congestion in a region j are estimated by following formula:Ź
,Ź
whereŹ
basic value of time from UNITE by trip purpose pŹ
CF C correction factor for country C the region j and the link i belongs toŹ
ts,i difference in travel time on road link i during time slice s compared to traveltime under free-flow condition
ds duration of time slice s within a whole yeartraffic volume on link i during time panel s, differentiated by
vehicle type vt
Ź
Road Road particulatesparticulates
3 TENAssess
10
1 Mandatory Impacts- Time Savings- Savings of Operation Costs- Change of Variable Infrastructure Cost- Change of Accident Costs
2 Discretionary Impacts- Environmental Impacts- Climate Change- Spatial Impacts
4 Assessment with CBA and CGE/SDM
Standard CBA - Benefits
11
1 Problem Area I- Country-based CBA not Comparable- Ex: Lyon - Turin High Speed Project
2 Problem Area II- European Value is not Equal to the Sum of
Country Values- National Companies don‘t Consider Inter-
national Benefits
3 Problem Area III- Scales are not Comparable with Private
Investments- Political Appraisal Bias
4 Assessment with CBA and CGE/SDMStandard CBA - Benefits
12
1 Computed General Equilibrium Models- Consideration of Horizontal
Interdependencies- Mainstream Economic Welfare Analysis
2 System Dynamic Modelling- Consideration of Horizontal and Vertical
Interdependencies- Modelling of Staged Policies
3 Most Important Issues- Identification of Overall Net Benefits
and their Spatial Distribution- Construction of Complete Scenarios
(Investment and Finance)
4 Assessment with CBA and CGE/SDMSGE/SDM
13
TEN investments in the TIPMAC BAU scenario[Mio*EURO/year]
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
Austria
Belgium+Luxemburg
Danmark
Spain
Finland
France
United Kingdom
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Netherlands
Portugal
Sweden
4 Assessment with CBA and CGE/SDMSDM
14
POP
MA C
F O T
R E M
T RA
WE M
E N V
VF T
Pot enti a l L abour For ce Popul a tion St ruc tur e
GD P , ( U n -)E mploym e nt, S ec tor a l Ou tput
Popul a tion C hang e
S ec tor a l Good s F lo w s
Fu e l Pri ce
GD P , P roduct ivity
Expo rts , Import s
T ran sport Exp e nditu re ,P e rform an ce, T im e
VA T R e v e nu eFu e l T ax R ev enu e
GD P , E m ploym e nt , ... .
T ran sport C ost , T im e OD
T ran sport De mand OD
P O P = P o pul at io n M od ul eMAC = Macro e co n om ics M od ul eRE M = Reg io n a l Eco n o m ic s Mo d u leF O T = F ore ig n T ra d e M od ul e
Abb rev ia ti ons :
TR A = T r an sp or t Mo dul eEN V = E n v iro nm en t Mo dul eV F T = V eh icl e Fl ee t Mo dul eWE M = We lf are Meas u re m e n t M od ul e
AS T RA M o du les a n d M ai n In ter face s
Ge ne raliz e d Co s t O D
Fl ee t S tru c tur e
4 Assessment with CBA and CGE/SDMSDM
15
Reactions of macroeconomic aggregates for EU15 (SMCP-Tolls scenario)
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Year
Cha
nge
to B
AU
sce
nario
[%] GDP
Employment
Consumption
Investment
Export
Government Consumption
Gross value added
Total factor productivity
4 Assessment with CBA and CGE/SDMSDM
164 Assessment with CBA and CGE/SDMSDM
175 Megaprojects and their RisksExamples
1 Channel Tunnel, Oeresund (in Operation)2 NEAT Tunnels (under Construction)3 Further Alpine Tunnel Projects4 Fehmarn-Belt5 Strait of Messina6 Spanish Rail Interoperability
18
1 The Megaproject Financial Rule(FBR):- Add 50% to Cost Figures- Subtract 30% from Estimated Demand
2 Procurement Including a Company outside thePublic Budget- Example of the Oeresund Project- 30% Rule of FBR- Clear Risk Allocation
6 Financing IssuesEuropean Assistance
19
3 Financial Volume for TENT:- 600 bill. € in total- 225 bill. € for the High Priority Projects- 140 bill. € in the Period 2007 - 2013- Presently available: 700 mill. € per year
4 Financial Contributions- 20 % EU Funding (for Cross Border or Cross
Natural Barrier Projects, up to 50% in Cross-border Sections)
- Private Contributions: 20%- Rest of Funding: Member States , EIB
6 Financing IssuesEuropean Assistance
20
1 Process of Procurement- Lobby Groups; Projects and Political Career- State as a Promoter- Systematic Underestimation of Costs and
Overestimation of Benefits- No Interest in Ex-post Evaluation
2 Possible Change- Role of Coordinator and Protector of Social
Interest as well as of the Environment- Clear Set of Performance Specifications- Quality Control. Observatory of Progress
7 Monitoring, Role of NGOsGovernment Failures
21
1 Process of Procurement- Lobbying for Projects, Rent Seeking
Behavior- Partial Optimisation, Fragmentation of the
Networks- Reinvestment in Value Adding Segments- No Interest in Strict Auditing
2 Possible Change- Public Framework for Concession Finance- Shorter Life of Concessions, Tender- Benchmarking (Yardstick Competition)- Improved Contracts (No Cost-plus
Contracts)
7 Monitoring, Role of NGOsPrivate Failures
22
1 Participation in Project Procurement- Setting Performance Criteria (Economic,
Social, Environmental)- Representing the Stakes of Users and
Taxpayers- Protecting the Groups Exposed to Harmful
Impacts
2 Participation in Quality Control and Auditing- Observatory for Project Development- Construction and Operation Phase- Benchmarking- Control of Recontracting and Tendering
Processes
7 Monitoring, Role of NGOsRole of NGOs