WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 1 6/9/2014 The 2010 Hurricane Season… What We DO and Do NOT Know! Steve Letro Meteorologist

WFO Jacksonville, FL 2010 Hurricane Season Outlook Steve Letro 1

04/10/23

The 2010 Hurricane Season…The 2010 Hurricane Season…

What We DO and Do NOT Know!What We DO and Do NOT Know!

Steve LetroSteve LetroMeteorologist in ChargeMeteorologist in Charge

National Weather Service, JacksonvilleNational Weather Service, Jacksonville


04/10/23

2010 Hurricane Season Outlook:What Does it Mean for You?


04/10/23

• Watch / Warning Issuance Times

• Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory Format • Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale Changes

• Size of Tropical Cyclone Forecast Cone • 2010 Tropical Season Outlook

Outline


04/10/23

Tropical Storm Tropical Storm Watches and WarningsWatches and Warnings

Tropical Storm Watch Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds

of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified coastal area within 48 hours

Tropical Storm WarningTropical Storm WarningTropical storm conditions (sustained winds

of 39 to 73 mph) are expected somewhere within the specified coastal area within 36 hours


04/10/23

Hurricane Watches and WarningsHurricane Watches and Warnings

Hurricane Watch Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or

higher) are possible within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane watch is issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds

Hurricane Warning Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or

higher) are expected somewhere within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds


04/10/23

Track Errors Cut in HalfLast 15-20 Years!


04/10/23

1970

48-hour Forecast Point over Jacksonville, Florida

Average Error = 300 nautical miles

Let’s Try And Let’s Try And Put That Into Put That Into Perspective…Perspective…


04/10/23

Now

48-hour Forecast Point over Jacksonville, Florida

Average Error = 80 nautical miles (~ 70% Reduction!)


04/10/23

1970 vs. Today


04/10/23

NHC Public AdvisoryNHC Public Advisory1. Basic Format Not Changed Since The 1960s

2. Plain-Language Intended for “Rip and Read” Broadcast Media.

3. Not Easily to Parse Sections Until A Summary Section became Tabular Format in 2009

4. Must Dig Through Several Paragraphs of Text to Find Basic Storm Info

5. Storm Hazards and Impacts Are Buried Near Bottom


04/10/23

New Public Advisory FormatNew Public Advisory Format

Section Headers Added

Storm Info First

Changes to Watches/Warnings in the Current Advisory are Highlighted

Bulleted Summary of All Watches/Warnings in Effect


04/10/23

Section Headers

Discussion of Forecast Motion, Intensity and Other Pertinent Info

Storm Hazards and Impacts Shown by Type

New Public Advisory FormatNew Public Advisory Format


04/10/23

The All-New Saffir-Simpson ScaleThe All-New Saffir-Simpson Scale

No More

Storm

Surge!

No More Flooding Impacts!

No More

Central

Pressure!


04/10/23

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind ScaleScale

IKE (2)IKE (2)KATRINA (3)KATRINA (3)

CHARLEY (4)CHARLEY (4)

Surge, Rainfall, and Pressure Fit the Scale Surge, Rainfall, and Pressure Fit the Scale Like a Square Peg in a Round HoleLike a Square Peg in a Round Hole

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml


04/10/23

Biscayne Bay

Average 11.7’

NWS WFO Jacksonville CWA/AOR Average 12.8’


04/10/23

Water Totals Water Totals Above the Above the

Datum (NGVD Datum (NGVD 27 or NAVD 27 or NAVD

88)88)

Water Totals

Above the AVERAGE

Cell Ground Level

Think of it Think of it as a as a First First

Guess Guess InundationInundation


04/10/23

Error Cone UpdateSlight Reduction in Size Due to Lower Track Errors

Forecast Period

(h)

2009 Circle Radius (n mi)

(‘04 – ’08 errors)

2010 Circle Radius (n mi)

(‘05 – ’09 errors)

12 36 36

24 62 62

36 89 85

48 111 108

72 167 161

96 230 220

120 302 285


04/10/23

The Main Weather Patterns Expected To

Influence The 2010 Season:

The Main Weather Patterns Expected To

Influence The 2010 Season:- Atlantic MultiDecadal Oscillation (AMO)Atlantic MultiDecadal Oscillation (AMO)

- El Nino/La Nina (ENSO)El Nino/La Nina (ENSO)

- Surface Atmospheric PressuresSurface Atmospheric Pressures

- Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)


04/10/23

Avg. # Hurricanes = 4.7

Avg. # Hurricanes = 8.0


04/10/23

Warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) Are Warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) Are A Prime Ingredient In Hurricane A Prime Ingredient In Hurricane

Formation… Providing The Necessary Formation… Providing The Necessary “Fuel” To Power The Storm“Fuel” To Power The Storm

SST Departures From Normal: SST Departures From Normal: 1995-20081995-2008

Warmer Than Normal Warmer Than Normal

Average Number of Hurricanes: 8.0Average Number of Hurricanes: 8.0 Average Number of Hurricanes: 4.7Average Number of Hurricanes: 4.7

SST Departures From Normal: SST Departures From Normal: 1981-19941981-1994

Near, Or Cooler Than NormalNear, Or Cooler Than Normal


04/10/23

The Impact Of Sea Surface Temperature:The Impact Of Sea Surface Temperature:Inactive vs. Active SeasonsInactive vs. Active Seasons

19971997 2004-2005 2004-2005

3 Hurricanes, 1 Major3 Hurricanes, 1 Major 2 Year Avg: 12 Hurricanes, 6.5 Majors 2 Year Avg: 12 Hurricanes, 6.5 Majors


04/10/23

North Atlantic SST Annual Anomalies… North Atlantic SST Annual Anomalies… Remember The 25-40 Year Cycle? We’re Not Nearly Done!Remember The 25-40 Year Cycle? We’re Not Nearly Done!

11

0

-1-1

- 0.5- 0.5

0.50.5

1925

19001900

1926 1969

1970 1994

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

1995-2008

2009-2020

2000 2010 2020


04/10/23

Current Sea Surface Temperature (SST)Current Sea Surface Temperature (SST)Departures From NormalDepartures From Normal


04/10/23

This Is A This Is A Comparison Of Comparison Of Oceanic Heat Oceanic Heat Content, or Content, or Hurricane Hurricane

“Fuel” “Fuel” Between 2009 Between 2009

and 2010 At and 2010 At The Start Of The Start Of The SeasonThe Season

Ocean Heat Ocean Heat Content Is A Content Is A Much Better Much Better Indicator Of Indicator Of

Heat Potential Heat Potential Available Than Available Than

Simple Sea Simple Sea Surface Surface

TemperaturesTemperatures

June 1, 2009

June 1, 2010

El NiEl Niñño o versus versus La NiLa NiñañaThe Two Phases Of ENSOThe Two Phases Of ENSO

El NiEl Niñño causes extra o causes extra thunderstorm development thunderstorm development over the central and eastern over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. This equatorial Pacific. This causes a response in the causes a response in the atmosphere over the Atlantic atmosphere over the Atlantic basin of increased shear and basin of increased shear and sinking air, causing a drier sinking air, causing a drier and more stable and more stable atmosphere.atmosphere.

La NiLa Niñña causes a reduction a causes a reduction and westward shift in and westward shift in thunderstorms. This forces thunderstorms. This forces the maximum sinking air to the maximum sinking air to be located over the eastern be located over the eastern Pacific and allows air to rise Pacific and allows air to rise more freely over the Atlantic more freely over the Atlantic basin, in addition to less basin, in addition to less shear.

Upper winds

Upper winds


04/10/23

Wind ShearWind ShearChanges In Wind Speed & Direction With HeightChanges In Wind Speed & Direction With Height


04/10/23

Wind Shear During June-July of 10 ENSO (El Nino Wind Shear During June-July of 10 ENSO (El Nino vs La Nina) Eventsvs La Nina) Events.

El Niño Tends To Create Stronger Shear Across The Tropics

Shear During La Niña Seasons Tends To Be Much Weaker


04/10/23

2009 – Slightly Below “Normal”2009 – Slightly Below “Normal”El Nino Helped!El Nino Helped!


04/10/23

ENSO Index Since June 2008ENSO Index Since June 2008

El N

ino

La

Nin

a 2009:3 Hurricanes2 Majors0 US Landfall

2008:8 Hurricanes5 Majors3 US Landfalls

We Can’t Count On El Nino To

Help Us Out This Year!

Less

Fav

orab

leM

ore

Favo

rabl

e


04/10/23

IFIF The Evolution Of This Event Does Continue The Evolution Of This Event Does Continue As The Forecasts Indicate…As The Forecasts Indicate…

……The Typical Expected Impacts Would Include More, And Stronger The Typical Expected Impacts Would Include More, And Stronger Storms, Especially Those Forming In The Deep TropicsStorms, Especially Those Forming In The Deep Tropics

Peak Of Hurricane Season

El NinoEl Nino

La NinaLa Nina


04/10/23

Sea-Level Pressure

• Known to influence hurricanes for at least 70 years.

• Pressure is a proxy for multiple qualities in the atmosphere.

• Lower pressures are linked to less sinking, which leads to a more moist atmosphere.

• Higher pressures in the subtropical high linked to stronger winds, and cooler water temperatures through increased upwelling.


04/10/23

Composite Map Of June-July Anomalous Surface Pressures During 10 Active Hurricane Seasons

Lower Than normal

Higher Than Normal


04/10/23

Another Player In Town…Another Player In Town…

• During The Recent Winter and Spring, Two Other Atmospheric During The Recent Winter and Spring, Two Other Atmospheric Oscillations…The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and The Arctic Oscillations…The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and The Arctic Oscillations Were At Record Negative Values.Oscillations Were At Record Negative Values.

• These Oscillations Influence The Strength And Position Of The These Oscillations Influence The Strength And Position Of The Atlantic/Bermuda High Which Can Influence Where Storms Go.Atlantic/Bermuda High Which Can Influence Where Storms Go.

• Since These Oscillations Have Never Shown Such Extreme Values… It Since These Oscillations Have Never Shown Such Extreme Values… It Makes It Very Difficult to Infer Their Ultimate Impacts During The Makes It Very Difficult to Infer Their Ultimate Impacts During The Hurricane Season Itself. Hurricane Season Itself.


04/10/23

The Record Low AO/NAO Led To Well Below The Record Low AO/NAO Led To Well Below Normal Pressures In The East Atlantic This Normal Pressures In The East Atlantic This

Spring… Leading To Less Upwelling Along The Spring… Leading To Less Upwelling Along The African Coast and Warmer SST’sAfrican Coast and Warmer SST’s


04/10/23

Good News… Maybe… Pressures Across Good News… Maybe… Pressures Across The Atlantic Basin Have Been More The Atlantic Basin Have Been More

Normal RecentlyNormal Recently


04/10/23

Madden-Julian OscillationMadden-Julian Oscillation

• Discovered in the early 1970s by Roland Madden Discovered in the early 1970s by Roland Madden and Paul Julian.and Paul Julian.

• An eastward propagating wave that circles the An eastward propagating wave that circles the globe in about 40-50 days involving tropical globe in about 40-50 days involving tropical convection. convection.

• Detected in the Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) Detected in the Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and wind fields across the tropics.and wind fields across the tropics.

• Later papers showed that it is an important Later papers showed that it is an important modulator of TC activity, especially in the Pacific modulator of TC activity, especially in the Pacific Ocean.Ocean.


04/10/23


04/10/23

MJO Effects in the Atlantic BasinMJO Effects in the Atlantic Basin• The MJO Can Lose Much Of Its Strength Before Entering The MJO Can Lose Much Of Its Strength Before Entering

The Atlantic Basin.The Atlantic Basin.

• In Addition, The MJO Is Weakest During The Late In Addition, The MJO Is Weakest During The Late Summer, Near The Peak Of Atlantic Activity.Summer, Near The Peak Of Atlantic Activity.

• Western Part Of The Basin Most Strongly AffectedWestern Part Of The Basin Most Strongly Affected

• The Atlantic Basin Is Most Active When Tropical The Atlantic Basin Is Most Active When Tropical Convection Is Suppressed In The Central Pacific Ocean And Convection Is Suppressed In The Central Pacific Ocean And Enhanced In The Indian Ocean.Enhanced In The Indian Ocean.


04/10/23

Most Genesis Points Most Genesis Points Are Near Or Behind Are Near Or Behind The Upper- Level The Upper- Level Divergence Center Divergence Center (Green Shading).(Green Shading).

Unfortunately, The Unfortunately, The MJO Has Very Little MJO Has Very Little Predictability Predictability Beyond 1-2 Weeks.Beyond 1-2 Weeks.

The MJO And Tropical The MJO And Tropical Cyclone Genesis PointsCyclone Genesis Points


04/10/23

The Madden Julian Oscillation…The Madden Julian Oscillation…• Individual MJO Events Are… Unfortunately… Unpredictable Individual MJO Events Are… Unfortunately… Unpredictable

Beyond About 20 Days, In Onset, Strength, or Longevity.Beyond About 20 Days, In Onset, Strength, or Longevity.

• It’s Also Unclear Exactly What Role The Interaction With A It’s Also Unclear Exactly What Role The Interaction With A Dissipating El Nino May Play. Dissipating El Nino May Play.

• The MJO Must Be Watched Closely… Unusually Strong and The MJO Must Be Watched Closely… Unusually Strong and Long Lasting MJO Events Are Often Accompanied By Lower Long Lasting MJO Events Are Often Accompanied By Lower Shear and Other Atmospheric Factors That Favor Tropical Shear and Other Atmospheric Factors That Favor Tropical Cyclone Development Cyclone Development


04/10/23

With That In Mind…And For What It’s With That In Mind…And For What It’s Worth… Here’s The 2010 OutlookWorth… Here’s The 2010 Outlook

• NAMED STORMS:NAMED STORMS: 14-23 14-23• HURRICANES:HURRICANES: 8-14 8-14 • MAJOR HURRICANES:MAJOR HURRICANES: 3-7 3-7• NET TROPICAL CYCONE ACTIVITY NET TROPICAL CYCONE ACTIVITY 155-270%155-270%• U.S. STRIKESU.S. STRIKES ? ?• U.S. HRCN STRIKES:U.S. HRCN STRIKES: ? ?• MAJOR U.S. HRCN STRIKES ?MAJOR U.S. HRCN STRIKES ?


04/10/23

Consider The 1992 Hurricane Season…Consider The 1992 Hurricane Season…

Only 6 Named Storms… But One Of Them Was Andrew!Only 6 Named Storms… But One Of Them Was Andrew!


04/10/23

Put It Another Way… Let’s Look At The Record 2005 Hurricane Season..

Put It Another Way… Let’s Look At The Record 2005 Hurricane Season..

• 27 “Named” Storms27 “Named” Storms• 15 Hurricanes15 Hurricanes• 7 Major Hurricanes7 Major Hurricanes

What Was The Big Hurricane That Impacted The What Was The Big Hurricane That Impacted The Daytona Beach Area In 2005?Daytona Beach Area In 2005?

Answer: There Weren’t Any… For Us, 2005 Was A “Quiet” Answer: There Weren’t Any… For Us, 2005 Was A “Quiet” Season!Season!


04/10/23

The Lesson???The Lesson???

Those Numbers Are Nice, But Without Those Numbers Are Nice, But Without Knowing Where They Are Going To Go… Knowing Where They Are Going To Go… They Don’t Really Mean Much… And We They Don’t Really Mean Much… And We

Don’t Know That!Don’t Know That!


04/10/23

Above/Below NormalDoes it Really Matter ??

• It Only Takes One Storm

• If ourour Area is Hit, it’s a “Bad” Year!

• 2007 Was Supposedly A “Quiet” Season.? It’s Doubtful The People Of 2007 Was Supposedly A “Quiet” Season.? It’s Doubtful The People Of Belize Who Were Hit By Two Category Fives Would Agree! Belize Who Were Hit By Two Category Fives Would Agree!

• We Must Prepare We Must Prepare Every YearEvery Year As Though This Will Be Our Year!! As Though This Will Be Our Year!!


04/10/23

The End!

www.srh.noaa.gov/jax

The End!

www.srh.noaa.gov/jax

Steve Letro: 904-741-4411 (office)Steve Letro: 904-741-4411 (office) 904-294-1594 (cell)904-294-1594 (cell)

Documents

WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 1 6/9/2014 The 2010 Hurricane Season… What We DO and Do NOT Know! Steve Letro Meteorologist