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The Uganda Market Price Update is produced by the Analysis, Monitoring and Evaluation (AME) Unit of the World Food Programme Ugan-da on a monthly basis. Price data collected by staff at WFP Sub offices in Moroto, Kotido, Kaabong and Nakapiripirit is analyzed along
with price data from Gulu, Kampala, Mbarara, Soroti, Tororo, Lira and Mbale. The update is divided into four sections; Karamoja markets, Price trends over one year, Other Markets and table on Price changes.
For further information
please contact the AME
unit WFP Uganda
KARAMOJA
Average retail prices for maize grain and
sorghum were relatively stable in October 2015
but higher than the October 2014 prices
and two year’s average 2013/14. Prices for
beans are higher this year by 20% compared
to the same period in October 2014.
The Terms of Trade for both goat prices and
daily causal labour wage rates against
maize grain deteriorated by 41% and 27%
respectively compared to October 2014.
REST OF THE COUNTRY
In general, average retail prices for beans, maize
grain and maize flour increased in October com-
pared to the previous month by 10%, 8% and 6%
respectively. Compared to the same period in
October 2014, prices for maize grain were
higher this year by 17% and beans by 37%.
Prices for maize grain are expected to remain sta-
ble in November while for beans are expected
to decrease as new stock gets on market.
HIGHLIGHTS
Hamidu TUSIIME
Food Security & Market Analyst
Siddharth KRISHNASWAMY
Analysis Monitoring & Evaluation, Head.
Price for beans is Projected to increase in December while for Maize will go down.
WFP UGANDA Monthly Market Bulletin—October 2015
BULLETIN OCTOBER 2015 ISSUE 19
vam food security analysis
Maize grain prices were relatively stable in Karamoja in
October compared to September. Price changes were
only experienced in Nakapiripirit with a decrease of 9%
and Kaabong with an increase of 4%.
Similar to the September analysis, maize grain prices in
October this year were higher compared to the same
period last year and the two years average 2013/14 by
47% and 19% respectively. The increase in price
highlights increasing costs of living this year for
households depending on maize grain through market
purchase.
On average, Karamoja experienced 5% increase in price for beans during the month of October compared to September. However, Nakapiripirit enjoyed 13% decrease in price. Compared to the same period in September 2014 and the two years’ average 2013/14, prices for beans in Karamoja increased by 20% and 9% respectively. Again Nakapiripirit enjoying prices decreases of 11% and 23% respectively and this can be attributed to the proximity to Mbale; one of the major growing areas.
Price for an average sized he-goat reduced by 5% during the month of October compared to September. The decrease was mainly in Moroto 15% and Napak 20%. Compared to the same period in October 2014, Karamoja experienced foot and mouth disease and therefore most animal markets not functional. Therefore, when we compare prices for Nakapiripirit and Kaabong that had some functional markets during that period, price for an average sized he-goat this year is less by 4% and 25% respectively.
Table 1: Goats retail prices changes for Oct—2015
Average retail prices for sorghum were also relatively stable
during the month of October compared to September with a
price change of 4%. The 23% price reduction experienced in
Nakapiripirit in September was short lived as prices
increased in October by 38%. This suggests that the harvest
reported in September could not sustain market supply for
more than a month.
In reference to the same period last year and the two years’
average 2013/14, sorghum prices have continued to be
higher this October by 38% and 33% respectively. The
considerable higher price differences confirm the food
accessibility challenges experienced in Karamoja this year.
Figure 1. Maize grain retail price changes Oct –2015 Figure 2. Sorghum grain retail price changes Oct–2015
Figure 3. Beans retail price changes Oct–2015
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SECTION ONE: KARAMOJA SUB-REGION
CEREALS
GOATS BEANS
Kotido has been experiencing fluctuations in the
average daily casual labour rates in recent months.
During the month of October, average daily casual
labour wage decreased in Kotido by 13% from UGX
2000 in September.
Similar to the September bulletin, there was a
reduction in the daily casual labor wage in Kotido this
year compared to October 2014 and the two year’s
average 2013/14 by 13% and 30% respectively as a
result of limited employment opportunities. In
Kaabong town council, construction projects have
sustained a 68% increase compared to 2014.
There was a deterioration in the terms of trade for both an
average sized he-goat and daily wage against maize grain
during the month. Selling a he-goat in October would enable a
household to buy 107kg more of maize grain compared to
117kg that would be bought in September 2015 mainly due to
the decrease in goat prices. Similarly, the TOT in October 2015
was less by 75Kg compared to the same period in 2014 due to
increased maize grain prices.
The TOT for the average daily casual labor wage against maize
grain deteriorated in October this year by 27% compared to
the same period last year. An average daily casual labor wage
would buy 4.14Kg of maize grain this year compared to 5.71kg
that would be bought in October 2014.
Table 2: Changes in Daily Wage Rates Oct—2015
KAABONG
There were no substantial market price changes in Kaabong during the month compared to September 2015. Howev-
er, compared to October 2014, prices for maize grain and beans are higher this year by 31% and 41% respectively
highlighting difficulties in accessing these commodities for households mainly dependent on markets.
KOTIDO
Despite the 16% price reduction experienced in Kotido compared to September 2015, sorghum prices were higher in
October 2015 compared to the same period in 2014 and the two year’s average 2013/14 by 33% and 35% respective-
ly. Similarly, prices for beans were also higher by 40% and 24% respectively an indication of accessibility challenges
this year.
MOROTO
Compared to the same period in October 2014 and the two year’s average 2013/14, accessibility for both maize grain
and sorghum through market purchase this year has been a challenge. Maize grain prices were higher in October this
year by 85% and 17% while for sorghum by 43% and 33% respectively.
NAKAPIRIPIRIT
Average nominal retail prices for sorghum increased by 38% in October compared to September. Compared to the
same period in 2014, average retail prices for both sorghum and maize grain were higher by 65% and 45% respective-
ly. However, Nakapiripirit enjoyed the lowest price for beans during the month at UGX 2,000 per kilogram.
NAPAK
Nominal retail prices for beans were higher by 15% in October compared September 2015 and October 2014. Prices
for maize grain and sorghum were also higher in October this year compared to the same period in 2014 by 85% and
67% an indication of accessibility challenges similar to other districts.
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TERMS OF TRADE LABOR
Terms of trade (TOT) in this context refers to the exchange of a medium size goat and daily labour for maize grain at the current market price.
SUMMARY BY DISTRICT (with the exception of Abim & Amudat)
Figure 5. Sorghum Grain Price Trends
Figure 4. Maize Grain Price Trends
Figure 6. Beans Price Trends
Figure 7. Goats Price Trends
All data provide until this point has been sourced from WFP ProMIS
Figure 8. Average Daily Labour Wage Trends
Figure 9. Terms of Trade Goats/Labour vs Maize grain
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SECTION TWO: KARAMOJA PRICES TRENDS OCT 2015 AGAINST 2014 & AVG 2013/14
This section provides a snapshot of the price fluctuations and projections of beans and maize grain for selected markets in
various regions of the country. Price data is collected by WFP staff at Sub offices in their respective areas of operation. The
primary criteria for selecting the markets included in the analysis is their trade influence in food commodities in their
respective regions and the relative consistency of data for the selected food commodities. More markets will be included in
the analysis as we improve on the consistency of our data collection.
On average, retail prices for maize grain increased by 8%
during the month of October compared to September 2015.
Lira experienced a price decrease of 15% with the lowest price
at UGX 700 a kilogram. Compared to October 2014, average
retail prices maize grain were higher this year by 17% . The
highest increase was in Soroti (60%) and Mbale (49%).
Mbarara experienced a price decrease of 46% compared to
last year and this could be that more traders are entering the
market where prices have been high for a long time.
Average retail prices for beans increased in most parts of the
country in October compared to September 2015 by 10%.
Similarly compared to October 2014, beans prices were higher
this year by 37%; Mbarara suffering the highest at 88% increase.
Fig. 10: Maize grain retail price changes Oct– 2015
Fig. 14: Beans retail price changes Oct— 2015
Source: WFP AME Projections
Fig. 11: Projected Price for Maize Grain: Nov-Dec 2015
The average price for maize grain is expected to remain relatively stable in November and start decreasing in December as a result of the new harvest.
Source: WFP AME Projections
Fig. 15: Projected Price for Beans: Nov-Dec 2015
The price for beans is projected to reduce in November and increase in December. Prices are expected to remain higher than the two year’s average 2013/14.
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SECTION THREE: KAMPALA, WESTERN, NORTHERN AND EASTERN UGANDA
BEANS
CEREALS
Missing price data for last year
Missing price data for last year
Fig. 12: Maize flour retail price changes Oct– 2015
Missing price data for last year
Average retail prices for maize flour increased in most parts of the country by 6% in October compared to September 2015. Compared to the same period in October 2014, this year's prices were higher in Gulu (18%), Soroti (16%) and Mbale (7%). Prices were lower in Mbarara and Tororo by 17% and 15% respectively.
There was limited average price changes for sorghum during the
month compared to September of about 2%. However, we notice
differences across regions. As most areas experienced price
increases, Gulu and Lira enjoyed decreases of 20% and 25%
respectively and this could be because these are major growing
areas. Compared to the same period in October 2014, sorghum
prices were higher this year by 10%.
Fig. 13: Sorghum retail price changes Oct– 2015
Missing price data for last year
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SECTION FOUR: PRICE CHANGES FOR KEY SELECTED COMMODITIES
