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WGNE 26, 18-22 October 2010
High Resolution Modeling:
Searching for the intersection between WGNE andthe WWRP Mesoscale Working Group
•Operational systems in the US•NOAA/NCEP•AFWA•FNMOC
•Examples of real-time R&D systems
•Examples of R&D
•WGNE and WWRP MWG•Jeanette & Martin
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WGNE 26, 18-22 October 2010
NAM• NEMS based NMMNEMS based NMM• Bgrid replaces Egrid• Parent remains at 12 km• Multiple Nests Run to ~48hr
– ~4 km CONUS nest– ~6 km Alaska nest– ~3 km HI & PR nests– ~~1.5-2km DHS/FireWeather/IMET
possible
Rapid Refresh• WRF-based ARW• Use of GSI analysisUse of GSI analysis• Expanded 13 km Domain to include
Alaska• Hourly Updates• Experimental 3 km HRRR
RUC-13 CONUS domain
WRF-Rapid Refresh domain – 2010
Original CONUS domain
Experimental 3 km HRRR
NCEP Mesoscale Modeling for CONUS: Planned Q3-Q4 FY11
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WGNE 26, 18-22 October 2010
Ranked Probabilistic Skill Score
New SREF
N-1 version
Improved CONUS short range ensemble system
CONUS 2 meter temperature02 February – 10 August 2009
• Upgrade models: WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW and RSM
• Increase horizontal resolution:– ARW (45 km to 35 km)– NMM (40 km to 32 km)– RSM (40 km to 32 km)
• Total Membership = 21:– Adding 4 WRF – Eliminating 4 Eta
• For the 3 RSM members: replace Zhou cloud with Ferrier
• Use Global Ensemble Transform (ET) perturbations for the 10 WRF members
• Increase output frequency from every 3 hr to hourly for 1st 39hr (for SPC, AWC)
• Add/fix/unify variables in SREF output– radar (composite reflectivity + echo top) (for FAA)– unify PBL height diagnosis with critical Ri (aviation)– fix cloud base (aviation)– BUFR broken out into individual station time-series (SPC)
Upgrades to the Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF)
System Implemented 27 October 2009
model (dash)output (black solid)
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WGNE 26, 18-22 October 2010
• Planned Changes:– Eliminate 6 Eta and 5 RSM members (11 members)– Add 7 NEMS-NMMB, 2 WRF-ARW and 2 WRF-NMM
members (11 members)– Update WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW model versions– Increase horizontal resolution from 32km to 22 km– Downscaled ET perturbations from global ensemble
• Expected Benefits:– Reduced maintenance costs without legacy models (Eta &
RSM)– Inclusion of state-of-the-art model – improved forecasts– More detailed and accurate forecasts especially for
precipitation– More consistent with global ensemble
Upgrades to the Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF)
Scheduled Q4FY11
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WGNE 26, 18-22 October 2010
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WGNE 26, 18-22 October 2010
Mesoscale Modeling at NRLMesoscale Modeling at NRL• COAMPS®
Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System Includes fully embedded aerosol model Includes coupled ocean and wave models / assimilation systems
• COAMPS-OS®
COAMPS-On Demand System
• COAMPS-LES COAMPS-Large Eddy Simulation capability
• COAMPS-TC®
COAMPS-Tropical Cyclone Model
• New Dynamical Core Nonhydrostatic Unified Model
• Ensembles JEFS: COAMPS-WRF Joint Ensemble Forecast System EnKF, EnKF-DART, ET systems
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WGNE 26, 18-22 October 2010
Many Real-Time Modeling Efforts in the US
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WGNE 26, 18-22 October 2010
transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations
Mobile, AL Ida Simulation w/ MODIS SSTsMobile, AL Ida Simulation w/ MODIS SSTs(9 to 27 hour Forecast PMSL and 10-m Winds)(9 to 27 hour Forecast PMSL and 10-m Winds)
• SOO Comments (Medlin)– Forecast very close on
track and intensity– Weakening intensity
toward landfall– Horizontal scale very
similar to observed– Precluded tornado threat
due to very stable air on northern periphery(not shown)
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WGNE 26, 18-22 October 2010
NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed:NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed:The benefits of close collaboration with forecasters…The benefits of close collaboration with forecasters…
Tornadic Supercells
Isolated cells ahead of the main line
WRF-NMM Simulated 1 km Reflectivity Observed Base Reflectivity
“The WRF-NMM4 provided very useful input regarding the mesoscale organization and character of storms…I used it to help delineate where/when watches would be required.” John Hart - SPC Day Shift Lead Forecaster
15 Nov 2005 tornado outbreak
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WGNE 26, 18-22 October 2010
SSEF mean SSEF Prob match QPE (obs)
4 km
SREF mean SREF Prob match NAM
32 km 12 km32 km
18–0Z accumulated precipitation: 24h(June 14, 2010 – OKC Flood Day)
Operational
R&D
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WGNE 26, 18-22 October 2010
Comparisons of reflectivity GSS (ETS) scores of SSEF, HRRR and NAM for Spring 2010
CAPS SSEF Ensemble PM Mean
CAPS SSEF 1 km Model
CAPS SSEF ARW-CN (control
w/o radar assimilation
)
CAPS SSEF ARW-C0 (control
w/o radar assimilation
)
HRRR
NAM
With radar DA
Without radar DA
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WGNE 26, 18-22 October 2010
•WRF ARW Based Study•0.5 km resolution
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WGNE 26, 18-22 October 2010
Young-Hee Ryu, Jong-Jin Baik, and Sang-Hyun LeeSeoul National University
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WGNE 26, 18-22 October 2010
Consideration of alternative spatial discretizations:
Priority Requirements:
Lat-Lon Icosahedral-triangles Icosahedral-hexagons Cubed Sphere Yin-Yang
• Efficient on existing and proposed supercomputer architectures • Scales well on massively parallel computers • Well suited for cloud (nonhydrostatic) to global scales• Capability for local grid refinement and regional domains• Conserves at least mass and scalar quantities
Problems with lat-lon coordinate for global models• Pole singularities require special filtering
• Polar filters do not scale well on massively parallel computers
• Highly anisotropic grid cells at high latitudes
Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)Joe Klemp, Bill Skamarock (NCAR), Todd Ringler (Los Alamos National Laboratory)
John Thuburn (University of Exeter, UK)
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WGNE 26, 18-22 October 2010
• WGNE is concerned with all aspects of atmospheric modeling and analysis
• Working interface between operational forecasting and climate modeling communities
• WGNE theme: Atmospheric models, their evaluation and improvement
WGNE fosters the open exchange of information in a competitive NWP environment
Numerical Weather Prediction (CAS) and
Climate (WCRP)
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WGNE 26, 18-22 October 2010
Service Delivery Capacity Building
ObservationsScientific
Assessments
Systematic Prediction