WHAM Natural Gas DA

8/14/2019 WHAM Natural Gas DA

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SDI 2008 1WHAM! Natural Gas DA

Natural Gas DA Index

Natural Gas DA Index................................................1

1NC Natural Gas DA (1/3).........................................3

1NC Natural Gas DA (2/3).........................................4

1NC Natural Gas DA (3/3).........................................5

Ext. Demand High......................................................6

Brink...........................................................................7

Link- General (1/2)....................................................8

Link- General (2/2)....................................................9

Link- Solar...............................................................10

Link- RPS.................................................................11

Link- Wind...............................................................12

Link- Biofuels..........................................................13

Link- Nuclear Power (1/2).......................................14

Link- Nuclear Power (2/2).......................................15

Ext. US Key to Qatar...............................................16

Ext. LNG Key to US/Qatar......................................17

Heg ! 2NC................................................................18

Ext. Heg Internal Link.............................................19

Middle East War !....................................................20

Ext. Middle East War Internal Link.........................21

AT: Qatar Corrupt/Econ not liberalized...................22

AT: Domestic Reserves Solve..................................23

AT: Offshore Drilling Solves...................................24

AT: Canada Solves...................................................25

US-Q atar Relations Strong......................................26

Dependence ! 2NC...................................................27

Econ ! 2NC...............................................................28

AT: Impact Turns......................................................29

AT: Natural Gas Unsafe...........................................30

AT: Terrorism Turn...................................................31

AT: Hurst Turns........................................................32

AT: Iran LNG...........................................................33

Natural Gas Solves the Aff Better- Warming (1/2). .34

Natural Gas Solves the Aff Better- Warming (2/2). .35

No Link- No Tradeoff..............................................36

No Link- Alt Cause..................................................37


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Aff ! T/- Economy Module......................................38

Ext. Economy ! T/ Internal Link..............................39

Aff ! T/- Terrorism Module......................................40

Ext. Terrorism ! T/ Internal Link (1/2).....................41

Ext. Terrorism ! T/ Internal Link (2/2).....................42Aff ! T/ Safety..........................................................43

Aff ! T/- Environment Module.................................44

Ext. Environment ! T/ Internal Link........................45

Aff AT: Levene.........................................................46

AT: The Coastguard can Solve.................................47


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1NC Natural Gas DA (1/3)

A. US demand for natural gas is high and increasing causing higher prices

The Associated Press State & Local Wire, Newswire, June 3, 2008, lexis, Natural gas reps. tell Mo.regulators demand causing spikes, nna

Natural gas and utility industry representatives tell regulators increasing demand could fuel higher

energy prices. Chris McGill with the American Gas Association says there are now two peak periods

for natural gas demand. There's the traditional winter heating season, and one in summer because

more electrical plants use natural gas. Besides demand, the trade groups point to weaker U.S. currency,increasing foreign competition for liquefied natural gas and hurricanes as contributors for higher

prices. The Public Service Commission last week allowed three utilities to charge an extra $100 to

$200 for natural gas. The bump can be adjusted as gas prices change, and it factors only market prices anddoesn't account for profits.

B. This demand is met by increasing imports of LNG for Qatar- the US is the primary

market for Qatar

The Hindustan TimesQatar aims to raise LNG output to 77 million tons in two years, 4-9-2008, ProquestNicosia, April 9 -- Qatar has aimed to raise production of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) from 31 million

tons a year to 77 million tons a year by 2010, the country's Minister of State for Energy and IndustryAffairs, Dr. Mohammed bin Saleh Al Sada, told the 16th Annual Middle East Petroleum and Gas Conferencein Doha. Qatar is already the biggest LNG exporter in the world and with a number of huge projectsthat will cost billions of dollars, mainly the two LNG processing trains - where gas is liquefied - it will

add by the end of the year another 8 million tons to its LNG output . Recently, a four billion dollars dealto build natural gas processing facilities in Qatar was reached between Qatar Liquefied Gas Co. and Japan'sChiyoda. The two companies agreed to build two LNG processing trains to the Qatargas-3 and Qatargas-4projects in the Ras Laffan Industrial city. The United States will be a primary market for the gasproduced by the new units. America will cover 30 per cent of its total LNG needs from Qatar. As fromnext year, it will buy more than 15 million tons of LNG a year from Qatar. The country's first marketswere Japan and Korea. India followed soon. The country's Oil Minister Abdullah bin Hamad Al Attiyah toldjournalists that Qatar's investment in the hydrocarbon sector would exceed 60 billion dollars.

C. Renewable energy reduces natural gas demand from QatarUnion of Concerned Scientists, 8/27/07, Clean Energy, AB,http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/clean_energy_policies/the-renewable-electricity-standard.html#6

Much of the U.S. energy systempower plants, dams, refineries, pipelines, tankers, and the electricitytransmission gridpresents significant safety and security risks. Renewable energy facilities are small,geographically dispersed, and do not require transporting or storing radioactive or combustible materials.Increasing renewable energy would reduce the number of vulnerable facilities over time. Renewable

energy can also reduce the need to expand imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG). LNG imports from

non-NAFTA countries, including some OPEC membersAlgeria, Indonesia, Iran, Nigeria, and Qatar

are projected to grow from less than 1 percent of gas supply today to up to 12 percent by 2010.

Renewable fuels can also displace oil. Among the experts calling for a federal RES to increase energysecurity are James Woolsey, former head of the CIA, Robert McFarland, former national security advisor toPresident Reagan, and Admiral Thomas Moorer, former head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.


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D. US LNG imports key to maintaining US-Qatar relations.

MichaelKlare professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College, 2006 The Nation, TheGeopolitics of Natural Gas, 1-23-2006, www.thirdworldtraveler.com/Oil_watch/Geopolitics_NaturalGas.html) //JMP

The rising worldwide demand for gas is also influencing relations between the major consuming

nations and their principal suppliers.A key factor in the geopolitics of natural gas is the heavy concentration of reserves in arelatively small number of producing countries. All told, the top ten gas producers harbor 76 percent of the world's proven reserves,while the top five-Russia, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates-hold nearly 67 percent. This means, of course, thatthese countries are in a very strong position to control the global flow of gas and to influence market forces.Russia, which owns 26.7

percent of the world's proven gas supplies (compared with 2.9 percent for the United States), will play a dominant role in the energyfield for many decades to come. Although the United States and Russia produced similar amounts of gas in 2004-05 (543 billion and 589

billion cubic meters, respectively), America's output was about 10 percent of its total reserves while Russia's output was only 1 percent.Russia already supplies a large share of Europe's natural gas, and when new pipelines are constructed, it will be capable of supplyingvast amounts to China, Korea and Japan-even the United States, eventually. Until now, the Russians have been very careful to avoidgiving the impression that they intend to exploit their dominant position in Europe for political advantage. Nevertheless, Moscow has

been accused of engaging in such practices in the past: In December 2000, for example, it temporarily suspended gas deliveries toGeorgia in a move perceived by many Georgians as punishment for the failure of its leaders, notably then-President EduardShevardnadze, to defer to Russia on key regional issues. The current blockage of gas to Ukraine can be seen as another instance of thesame tactic. Officials of the European Union are worried about the growing role of Gazprom in the delivery of natural gas to Europe. At

present, Gazprom supplies approximately 40 percent of Europe's natural gas, and its share is likely to grow as gas fields in the North Sea

are exhausted. Fearing that Moscow may someday exploit its role as Europe's major gas supplier to wring political concessions from itscustomers, EU officials have called for greater diversity in the procurement of energy-so far, to little avail. Iran is also a major producerof natural gas. Under increasing diplomatic pressure from the Bush Administration to halt its suspected pursuit of nuclear weapons,Tehran has been eager to establish joint production and export projects with friendly nations in Europe and Asia. In the past two yearsalone, it has signed several multibillion-dollar deals with companies from France, Italy, Norway, Turkey, Japan and India for jointdevelopment of offshore gas fields in the Persian Gulf and the construction of new pipelines to Europe and Asia. Capping this drive wasthe signing in October 2004 of a $100 billion, twenty-five-year contract with the China National Petrochemical Corporation (Sinopec)for the joint production and export of liquefied natural gas (LNG), much of which will ultimately go to China. While all this makes

perfect commercial sense, given Iran's need for foreign partners in the management of these ambitious projects, it is safe to assume

Tehran is also seeking to increase the number of allies it can turn to in case of a showdown with the United States . Qatar has

tacked the opposite way, using its huge gas reserves to establish close ties with Washington and to

insinuate itself beneath the US defense umbrella. Under a $10 billion, twenty-five-year agreement

signed in 2003, ExxonMobil will build the world's largest LNG shipping facility in Qatar. Much of the

resulting liquid will go to the United States to be converted back into gas .This will entail the construction of newLNG terminals at ports on the US Gulf Coast, a major undertaking. Like Qatar's, many of the world's largest deposits of natural gas are

located far from the areas where demand is greatest. The most efficient and economical way to transport gas to distant markets is bypipeline. As a result, vast natural gas pipeline networks have been built in North America, Europe and the former Soviet Union, andmany more such conduits are under construction. These networks are easiest to construct on land or in relatively shallow, enclosed

bodies of water like the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, both of which are now traversed by gas pipelines.


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E. US/Qatar relations are key to counterterrorism efforts

ChristopherBlanchard, Analyst in Middle Eastern Affairs, 1/24/08 http://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL31718.pdfThe U.S.Department of State has characterized Qatars counterterrorism support since September 11,2001 as significant.41Qatars Combating Terrorism Law, passed in March 2004, establisheddefinitions of terrorism and terrorist financing and broadened the governments power to detect and

prevent terrorist threats and to investigate and prosecute terrorists and their supporters. Qatar also

established the Qatar Authority for Charitable Activities (QACA) in March 2004 to monitor the activitiesof all Qatari domestic and international charitable organizations, including prominent organizations suchas the Qatar Charitable Society and the Shaikh Eid bin Mohammed Al Thani Charitable Association. Allinternational financial charity transfers and project verification fall within the jurisdiction of the new QACA.42 However, Article 24 of the law establishing the Authority allows the Emir to grant an exemption fromQACA oversight to any organization at any time. Qatars central bank operates a financial intelligenceunit (FIU) which monitors activity Qatars banking system and serves as a liaison office to similar

units in the United States and around the world.

F.Extinction

MohamedSid-Ahmed, Managing Editor for Al-Ahali, Extinction! August 26-September 1 2004 , Issue no.705, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.hml

A nuclear attack by terrorists will be much more critical than Hiroshima and Nagazaki , even if -- andthis is far from certain -- the weapons used are less harmful than those used then, Japan, at the time, with noknowledge of nuclear technology, had no choice but to capitulate. Today, the technology is a secret fornobody. So far, except for the two bombs dropped on Japan, nuclear weapons have been used only tothreaten. Now we are at a stage where they can be detonated. This completely changes the rules of the game.We have reached a point where anticipatory measures can determine the course of events. Allegations of aterrorist connection can be used to justify anticipatory measures, including the invasion of a sovereign statelike Iraq. As it turned out, these allegations, as well as the allegation that Saddam was harbouring WMD,proved to be unfounded. What would be the consequences of a nuclear attack by terrorists? Even if itfails, it would further exacerbate the negative features of the new and frightening world in which we

are now living. Societies would close in on themselves, police measures would be stepped up at the expenseof human rights, tensions between civilisations and religions would rise and ethnic conflicts would

proliferate. It would also speed up the arms race and develop the awareness that a different type ofworld order is imperative if humankind is to survive. But the still more critical scenario is if the attack

succeeds. This could lead to a third world war, from which no one will emerge victorious. Unlike aconventional war which ends when one side triumphs over another, this war will be without winners andlosers. When nuclear pollution infects the whole planet, we will all be losers.


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Ext. Demand High

Demand for natural gas has increased and gained a more prominent role on the

international market.

Steven Gabriel, Weekly Policy Commentary, Why Natural Gas Matters in Todays Energy and Environmental

Picture; March 10, 2008; LChttp://www.rff.org/Publications/WPC/Pages/03_10_08_Natural_Gas_Gabriel.aspxIn recent years, the environmental and economic value of natural gas has soared, making it an ever-

important fuel for power generation, industrial operations, as well as residential and commercial use.

Natural gas holds a favorable environmental position relative to coal and oil, all the more important

given the current move towards a low-carbon world. In the United States, demand for natural gas hasrisen over 33 percent in the period 1986-2006, driven by a multitude of factors. In Europe, geopoliticalissues are more pronounced since almost half of the European Union's imports of gas come from Russia.Additionally, there is now competition in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins for liquefied natural gas(LNG) from exporting countries. The overall picture then is one of a global competition for thisimportant fuel source. Two othertrends have emerged over the last 20 years that have helped to spurboth domestic and international natural gas consumption. The first was the enactment of regulations

geared at liberalizing gas markets. In the United States, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commissionrequired interstate pipeline companies to unbundle, or separate, their sales and transportation services

in order to promote competition and mitigate their potential market power. Similar legislative measureswere enacted in the European Union that promoted third-party access and legal splitting of gas sellers andnetwork operators. The second trend is the rise of liquefied natural gas trading. LNG is the liquid form ofthis fuel, achieved by cooling the normally gaseous substance to about -260 degrees (Fahrenheit) andremoving certain components. By using specialized cryogenic tankers, natural gas can be moved muchmore easily around the world, but this process is costly. While there is not yet a common "world gasprice" as in the case with oil, there are some very large producers. Nearly 75 percent of the world'snatural gas reserves can be found in the Middle East and Eurasia, with reserves in Russia, Iran, and

Qatar combined accounting for nearly 60 percent of this total, resulting in geopolitical market power.

For example, the influence of Russian production and control of key pipelines was felt in Ukraine andWestern Europe in the winter of 2005-2006, when Russia temporarily cut off gas to Ukraine over a pricedispute, which affected downstream Europe. In the United States, dependence on natural gas from othercountries has been rising over time. In the last 20 years, imports of natural gas as a percentage of total

consumption have risen from just over 4 percent in 1986 to almost 16 percent in 2006. Colleagues and Ihave created detailed game theoretic models of market equilibria in which producers (or their marketingarms) may withhold production in order to achieve higher profits. The resulting simulations indicate thatmarket power can raise natural gas prices considerably. Compared with an assumption of perfectlycompetitive producers in Europe (that is, producers not having the ability to influence market prices bywithholding production), the effects of market power raise European prices by some 27 percent. This isfurther exacerbated if a major supplier such as Algeria is shut down or gas from Russia is curtailed through atransit country such as Ukraine.

Demand for natural gas is high and rising.

Diane Lindquist, staff writer, 15 Jul 2008, The San Diego Union Tribune, A liquid diet, Lexis Nexis, ABLast week, when Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned that natural gas shortfalls are aserious problem that could erode the nation's economic recovery, he also endorsed projects such as theliquefied natural gas receiving terminals proposed for Baja California. Shrinking supplies, Greenspansaid, mean the United States must build LNG receiving terminals to create a safety valve that would

help stabilize gas prices. "Without the flexibility such facilities will impart, imbalances in supply anddemand must inevitably engender price volatility," he said. If the Mexican projects get built, they will be thefirst liquefied natural gas, or LNG, receiving terminals on North America's West Coast. As such, they wouldadd a new dynamic to global trading of the super-cooled, ocean-borne fuel just as LNG is undergoing aworldwide resurgence. Other developed countries, in addition to the United States, are seeing naturalgas supplies diminish. That, along with economic growth and environmental concerns about coal and

oil, is pushing greater demand for LNG.


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Brink

Now is the key time for the gas market

Global Power Report, December 21, 2006, FINANCE; Pg. 4 LChttp://www.lexisnexis.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T4157357044&format=GNBFI&sort=RELEVANCE&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T4157357047&cisb=22_T4157357046&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=8146&docNo=1

While the 2007 outlook for the US power and natural gas industry is "generally stable," the sector

faces "escalating credit challenges" in the intermediate to long term as "capital markets will eventually turnless accommodating," Fitch Ratings said December 18. The rating agency based its stable outlook for nextyear on the fact that natural gas and wholesale power prices, while below recent highs, remain at

"elevated levels," lending favorable credit implications to many companies in the sector, particularly

merchant generators and gas gathering, processing and storage companies. Fitch, however, added thathigh energy prices combined with other "rising cost elements, form a challenging environment for the

regulated gas and electric utility sector." Fitch said that while some utilities such as public power utilities,gas distributors, and most traditionally regulated integrated investor-owned electric utilities are betterpositioned to recover rising costs, other IOUs face "a more contentious regulatory and politicalenvironment." In the intermediate or longer term, Fitch said it expects the power and gas sector willeventually face escalating credit challenges. "Capital market conditions that are currently positive for

this sector will eventually turn less accommodating. Companies that form growth plans and financialstructures without considering the potential for a shift in the capital market environment or downturn invaluations can run into financial problems down the road," Fitch said, adding that "easy and liberal financinghas accelerated merger and acquisition activity, and it would be unsurprising to witness some fallout from thelofty prices being paid for power and gas assets and/or companies." In addition, Fitch cautioned there is "apossibility that sustained higher prices for gas and electric power and public programs for demandmanagement will eventually lead to reduced consumption, at the same time that costly new facilities

come online."


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Link- General (1/2)

Energy diversification reduces demand of natural gas

Ryan Wiser, scientists and Policy Group at Lawrence, 2005"Easing the Natural Gas Crisis: Reducing NaturalGas Prices Through Electricity Supply DiversificatioTestimony Prepared for a Hearing on Power Generation ResourceIncentives & Diversity Standards" Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources

With the recent run-up in natural gas prices, and the expected continuation of volatile and high prices for atleast the mid-term future, a growing number of voices are calling for increased diversification of electricitysupplies. Such diversification holds the prospect of directly reducing our dependence on a fuel whosecosts are highly uncertain, thereby hedging the risk of natural gas price volatility and escalation. Inaddition, as I will describe in a moment, by reducing natural gas demand, increased diversification awayfrom gas-fired generation can indirectly suppress natural gas prices.

Renewable Energy will have a large impact on natural gasUCS 05 (Union of Concerned Scientists, "Renewable Energy Can Help Ease Natural Gas Crunch", August26,

Implementing effective energy efficiency measures can be the fastest and most cost effective approach

to balancing gas demand and supply, with renewable energy providing a critical mid-term to long-term

supplement. A recent study by the American Council for An Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE)

confirms that modest near-term reductions in gas and electricity consumption through efficiencymeasures coupled with increased renewable energy use could significantly impact natural gas prices

and availability, while saving consumers more than $75 billion on their natural gas bills over the next fiveyears.4 The model used in ACEEEs analysis also demonstrates that the near-term natural gas price responseand consumer savings from increasing energy efficiency and renewable energy could be much greater thanprojected in EIAs NEMS model.

Renewable energy will have an impact on natural gas

UCS 05 (Union of Concerned Scientists, "Renewable Energy Can Help Ease Natural Gas Crunch", August26,

Because increased renewable energy use reduces the demand for natural gas, and creates newcompetitors to traditional power plants, increasing renewable energy would reduce natural gas prices.

Achieving the 10 percent RES could reduce gas prices by 1.9 percent ($0.12 per million Btu) compared tobusiness as usual in 2020. A 20 percent standard could reduce natural gas prices by as much as $0.25/millionBtu, resulting in cumulative gas bill savings of $15 billion (Fig. 5) through 2025. Under current EIAforecasts, renewable energy begins to displace new coal-fired power plants (which become

economically competitive) instead of natural gas facilities after 2020. As a result, renewable energy hasless of an impact on natural gas prices in these later years, but it continues to provide total energy bill savingsto consumers from lower electricity prices, and even greater air pollution reduction benefits.


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Link- General (2/2)

Alternative energy will reduce demand by 10%Ryan Wiser, scientists and Policy Group at Lawrence, 2005"Easing the Natural Gas Crisis: Reducing Natural GasPrices Through Electricity Supply DiversificatioTestimony Prepared for a Hearing on Power Generation Resource Incentives &Diversity Standards" Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources

The level of demand and price reduction depends in large part on the level of renewable energy andenergy efficiency deployment. Those studies that review the impact of more aggressive national

renewable energy deployment efforts have found that such efforts could reduce demand for natural

gas by as much as 3 to 4 quadrillion BTU (Quads) a year by 2020, or 10% of projected national gas

consumption, with a mean reduction across studies of approximately 2 Quads (7 %). Less aggressivelevels of national deployment are found to reduce gas consumption by as much as 1.5 Quads, or 4% of totalprojected demand in 2020, with a mean reduction across studies of 0.7 Quads (2%).

Energy efficiency will reduce LNG useRyan Wiser, scientists and Policy Group at Lawrence, 2005"Easing the Natural Gas Crisis: Reducing Natural GasPrices Through Electricity Supply DiversificatioTestimony Prepared for a Hearing on Power Generation Resource Incentives &Diversity Standards" Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources

As shown in our full report, these studies consistently find that renewable energy and energy efficiency

deployment will reduce natural gas demand, thereby putting downward pressure on gas prices.


10/47


Link- Solar

Solar energy reduces use of natural gas

James Mason, 12/17/07, Scientific American, A Solar Grand Plan, AB, http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=a-solar-grand-plan

The federal government would have to invest more than $400 billion over the next 40 years to complete the2050 plan. That investment is substantial, but the payoff is greater. Solar plants consume little or nofuel, saving billions of dollars year after year. The infrastructure would displace 300 large coal-fired

power plants and 300 more large natural gas plants and all the fuels they consume. The plan would

effectively eliminate all imported oil, fundamentally cutting U.S. trade deficits and easing political

tension in the Middle East and elsewhere. Because solar technologies are almost pollution-free, the planwould also reduce greenhouse gas emissions from power plants by 1.7 billion tons a year, and another 1.9billion tons from gasoline vehicles would be displaced by plug-in hybrids refueled by the solar power grid. In2050 U.S. carbon dioxide emissions would be 62 percent below 2005 levels, putting a major brake on globalwarming.


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Link- RPS

RPS would significantly reduce natural gas usage

Foster Electric Report, 9-19-2007, EIA FINDS THAT FEDERAL 25% RPS WOULD CAUSE DRAMATICSHIFT AWAY FROM COAL GENERATION, SS, Lexis.

Meeting twin 25% national renewable portfolio standards for electricity and transportation fuels by2025 would require nearly a 13-fold increase from 2005 levels in non-hydropower renewable generation, andcause a "dramatic shift" away from coal and natural gas generation, the U.S. Energy InformationAdministration said in a report released Sept. 11. "This analysis suggests that, to comply with the twin 25-by-25 mandates, it will be necessary for electricity and motor fuel producers to dramatically increasetheir use of technologies that play a relatively small role in today's energy markets," the report said. Forinstance, EIA said the 13-fold increase in renewable electricity generation from 2005 levels would beaccompanied by more than a 12-fold increase in the amount of ethanol and biodiesel needed.

RPS would remove the need for natural gas.

Jim Madden, Jim Madden is the president of Chesapeake Renewable Energy, Times Dispatch guest columnist,

1/17/2007 , Support for RPS Legislation Is a Stand for Clean Energy, jlk,http://www.chesapeakeclimate.org/news/news_detail.cfm?id=247

Virginia has an important choice to make, but it's a no-brainer. The Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) billsponsored by Sen. Mary Margaret Whipple would require that all retail electric utilities in Virginia obtain12 percent of theirelectricity from renewable sources -- such as wind, solar, and biomass -- by 2020. Itwould also require these utilities to enact energy efficiency programsto save an additional 5 percent ofelectric usage by 2020. These limits are attainable and implementing them is unlikely to increase our electricrates. If the General Assembly passes this bill, Virginia would join 23 other states in taking a stand in supportof clean energy. Every megawatt-hour of clean energy produced removes the need to generate amegawatt-hour of electricity from other sources, such as coal and natural gas.

More evidence

EIA Special Report, 10-11-2001, eia.doe.gov, Fuel Market and Macroeconomic Impacts,SS.http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/epp/chapter_4.html

The imposition of new, more stringent emission caps on electricity power plants would affect coal

consumption, national and regional production, and prices. (Figure 22) In general, the revised caps and theconsequent need for introducing control technologies and other measures necessary to achievecompliance with the caps would raise the cost of electricity from coal-fired power plants relative to thoseusing other fuels, encourage fuel switching, and cause the level of coal-fired generation to be reduced.The impacts on national coal industryproduction levels are projected to be negative relative to thereference case. The overall impacts on coal production depend on both the extent of the projected decline incoal demand and the types of coal expected to be used in the future mix of coal-burning capacity. In the RPScases, all the nonhydroelectric renewable generation technologies are projected to increase their market shareof total generation, and the electricity generation shares of both coal and natural gas are projected to belower than in the reference case. The effective price premium associated with using renewable fuels declinesover time relative to nonrenewable sources, because the cost of the RPS credits that nonrenewable electricitygenerators must hold increases as the renewable share target becomes more stringent. In the RPS 10% case,the projected impacts on coal markets fall roughly midway between the results in the reference and RPS 20%

cases.


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Link- Wind

Wind trades off with natural gasDr. Benjamin Sovacool, Senior Research Fellow for the Network for New Energy Choices in New York

ChristopherCooper Executive Director of the Network for New Energy Choices Renewing America: The Case for

Federal Leadership on a National Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), Network for New Energy Choices ReportNo. 01-07, June, 2007A similar study conducted by the Virginia Center for Coal and Energy Research (VCCER) found thatrenewable generators fueled by wind and landfill gases offered the cheapest forms of electricity2.8and 3.0 cents per kWh, respectivelycompared to all other generators including advanced coal, naturalgas, and nuclear reactors.

Wind power could viably replace natural gas

Steve Hargreaves, 7/22/08, CNN Money, Wind Power: A reality check, AB,http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/22/news/economy/pickens_wind/?postversion=2008072214

Despite these challenges, wind power's ability to produce 21% of the nation's electricity needs isn't outof the question. While wind currently only makes up 0.8% of the country's total electricity production,

and would need to grow well over 20 times that to replace gas, it's worth noting that wind capacity has

increased 12 fold since 1990, according to EIA.

Wind power could replace natural gas

Loren Steffy, Reporter, 7/10/08, Houston Chronicle, Pickens' plan is bold too bad it won't work, AB,http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5882292.html

Pickens argued that wind technology will improve as more farms are built, and as commodity prices rise,it will become a cost-effective power source. "As it moves in, the natural gas will move out," he said."The price of natural gas will still be better for vehicles and still be cheaper than foreign oil."


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Link- Biofuels

Biofuels replace natural gas demand

Jerrold E Rudie, staff writer, 7/22/08, red Orbit, integrated biomass technologies, AB,http://www.redorbit.com/news/science/1488981/integrated_biomass_technologies/

One of the primary principles of IBT is the conversion of biomass to heat or electrical energy. It is usuallyless expensive to generate bio-based electrical energy locally and distribute it regionally than to transport thebiomass to larger regional electrical generation facilities. The need for energy, especially bio-based energy, isgrowing. Recent interest in distributed small- and medium-scale electrical generation from biomass andwoody waste provides new opportunities to use low- or currently no-value biomass from sorting yardoperations. The forest products industry in the United States uses almost 100 million dry tons of wood wasteannually for energy. A number of companies have begun, or are contemplating, installation of wood waste orhog fuel gasifiers. The producer gas resulting from this thermal decomposition can replace natural gasor be further processed to produce syngas (synthesis gas), used to manufacture other chemicals such as

methanol, higher alcohols, or hydrocarbons. All logging operations leave forest residues that areunsuitable or too small to meet sawmill, pulp mill, panel product mill, or pole plant raw material feedstockspecifications. Targeting these biomass residues for their optimal economic use will maximize the value ofaJl currently nonmerchantable material. A number of direct conversion biomass-toenergy combustors (i.e.,electrical generators) are being re- engineered to make them economical for smaller scale and even semi-

portable operations. These smaller biomass-to-energy units are now available and becoming profitablealternatives to using fossil fuels. As smaller units have become available, they are being adopted by somerural communities and small businesses. Depending on size and design of the combustors, the biofuels usedcan be shredded material, hammer milled material, chips or pellets, but direct conversion of biomass toenergy requires knowing optimal fuel sizes, moisture levels, and energy contents. In addition, some of thebiofuels can be processed into pellets to meet a growing home-use market for wood pellets.


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15/47


Link- Nuclear Power (2/2)

Nuclear energy decreases natural gas prices.

Barbara Shook, Houston Bureau Chief, Energy Intelligence Dec. 10,2007, Natural Gas Week, Power for OilSands Projects Might be From Nukes, NatGas, Lexis VF

Alberta 's massive oil sands production and upgrading facilities require enormous quantities of electricity to

power the giant shovels and other equipment and generate steam and hydrogen for converting the bitumen-sand mixture into synthetic crude or finished products. With the exception of some coal-fired electricitypurchased off the grid, natural gas fuels the cogeneration plants that serve the projects. Natural gasproduction in Alberta is declining as the conventional fieldsthat have been the life blood of the Western CanadianSedimentary Basin go into permanent decline. Western Canada lacks the extensive unconventional resources that have allowed US

production to remain relatively flat for the past three decades. Calgary-based investment bank FirstEnergy Capital predicts that Alberta 'sgas output could fall by 1 billion cubic feet of gas per day by the end of 2008 from current production of about 16.4 Bcf/d, followed by asimilar supply drop in 2009. The Nexen-OptiCan Long Lake project is dealing with the challenge by constructing a gasifier that will

convert asphaltenes, a byproduct extracted from bitumen, as fuel. Other project developers are considering gasifiers

that would burn another waste product, petroleum coke, in place of natural gas. One proposed solution

gaining a lot of attention recently is nuclear energy. On the surface, nuclear power seems to be anattractive option. Natural gas prices are higher than anticipated and likely to become more expensive

as supplies diminish. Uranium fuel has a fixed price for as long as 30 to 50 years, noted speakers at theCanadian Institute's Oil Sands conference.Nuclear plants also emit no carbon dioxide, the most common

greenhouse gas. Coal and heavy hydrocarbons produce large volumes of CO2. While natural gas yields lesseramounts, it still is a source.

Nuclear power would reduce natural gas demand

Ryan Wiser, scientists and Policy Group at Lawrence, 2005"Easing the Natural Gas Crisis: Reducing Natural GasPrices Through Electricity Supply DiversificatioTestimony Prepared for a Hearing on Power Generation Resource Incentives &Diversity Standards" Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources

Our report confirms that the natural-gas-price reductions projected by earlier modeling studies are consistentwith economic theory. Increased renewable energy and energy efficiency will cause an inward shift inthe natural gas demand curve, leading to lower natural gas prices than would have been realized underthe higher-demand conditions. Similar natural gas price reductions would likely result from increaseduse of other non-natural-gas energy sources that displace natural gas consumption (e.g., coal, nuclear).


16/47


Ext. US Key to Qatar

US imports of LNG Are key to Qatars market

TDS 08 ECONOMY, Qatar Asia, 6.06.08. http://www.traveldocs.com/qa/economy.htmQatar's natural gas liquefaction facilities and related industries are located in Ras Laffan Industrial City, siteof the world's largest LNG exports of more than 31 million metric tons per year. Qatar's heavy industrialbase, located in Messaieed, includes a refinery with a 140,000 bpd capacity, a fertilizer plant for urea andammonia, a steel plant, and a petrochemical plant, and several new petrochemical plants will be built in thecoming years. All these industries use gas for fuel. Most are joint ventures between U.S., European, andJapanese firms and the state-owned Qatar Petroleum (QP). The U.S. is the major equipment supplier forQatar's oil and gas industry, and U.S. companies are playing a major role in the development of the oiland gas sector and petrochemicals. The country's economic growth has been stunning. Qatar's nominalGDP, currently $63.8 billion, had recently been growing at an average of 15%, and the 2007 growth rate was12.5%. Qatar's per capita GDP is $67,000, and projected to soon be the highest in the world. The QatariGovernment's strategy is to utilize its wealth to generate more wealth by diversifying the economic

base of the country beyond hydrocarbons.

US it the vital market for Qatar natural gas.Energy Bulletin, 4 (Hector Igbikiowubo, "2020 Scenario: OPEC May Be Replaced," 1-12-2004,http://www.energybulletin.net/node/145) // JMP

It's 2020, and the energy ministers ofthe Organization of Gas-Exporting Countries, known as OGEC,the umbrella for the dozen or so nations which dominate the market, gather in Madrid for their annualget-together to determine production quotas and price levels for the new primary energy source that

fuels the global economy , natural gas, or more specifically, liquefied natural gas, known as LNG. Thatscenario may seem somewhat fanciful right now, but the emergence of a partner, possibly even a successor,to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, which has dominated the world"s energymarket since the 1970s, is on the cards as the natural gas business, particularly the Gulf-based LNG sector,is set to expand into a global boom with the US as the dominant market. The worldwide shift toward

LNG will bring in its wake profound political and economic changes in many parts of the world,

providing a lifeline for the economies of some Gulf states whose oil production is sliding into decline as

fields are exhausted. "The international trade in gas delivered by pipeline and tanker, will rival the

scale and complexity of today's petroleum market," said Edmund O"Sullivan, editor-in- chief of the

Middle East Economic Digest."The world gas price will then become as important to Middle Easteconomies as the world oil price. Logic suggests that exporters will want to coordinate strategies to preventa gas price collapse. Whisper it those who dare: an OPEC for gas may soon be on the world energy agenda,"he added. In December, some of OPEC's most important member states shifted their attention from crude oilto LNG exports at a conference convened by the administration of the US President George W. Bush to boostUS imports of the refrigerated fuel. The United States is without doubt the key market for LNG,currently accounting for one-quarter of the natural gas consumed in the world every day. The

Americans are increasingly concerned about the security of their energy supplies, and have long sought

to undermine OPEC's influence in the oil market. While OPEC largely controls global oil supplies and

prices, the Bush administration would like to see competition blossom among LNG exporters. Non-OPEC producers like Russia, Norway, Trinidad, Australia and Oman, are looking at LNG exports to generatenew revenue. "It's in our interest to develop as many international sources as possible" for US importsof LNG, US Energy Secretary, SpencerAbraham, said at the conference in Washington. "LNG is clearly

going to be a large factor in the world's future energy equation," he said.
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/145http://www.energybulletin.net/node/145


17/47


Ext. LNG Key to US/Qatar

LNG is the vital internal link to US-Qatar relations.

AME Info, 3 (AME Info is the ultimate Middle East business resource, "Is Doha the next Dubai? Qatar's billion-dollar deals with big oil make it an economic heavyweight. Inside the Gulf's next energy superpower whoseambitions shadow those of Dubai," 12-3-2003, www.ameinfo.com/31790.html) // JMP

In the space of four days in October, Qatar became an energy superpower. It signed natural gasmegadeals with ExxonMobil and Shell worth $17 billion, and has other projects worth an estimated

$20 billion with US and European energy giants in the pipeline. All this will make the tiny emirate -OPEC's smallest oil producer - the world capital of the gas-to-liquids industry by 2010 and the singlelargest supplier of liquefied natural gas to the United States, a huge energy market that is ready toundergo rapid and vast expansion in the coming years. Qatar, which has been assuming a more assertiverole in Gulf affairs, is on target to become the world's biggest LNG exporter by 2010 with an annual outputof 30 million tons and is pushing to raise production to 45 million tons a year. Current LNG production is 15million tons a year, mainly to Japan, Spain and the US. Qatar's success in forging these new contractualconnections,particularly with the United States, will provide it with the kind of stability and securitythat its neighbors can only dream about. It also gives the emirate a huge head start on the other Gulfproducers, which are increasingly looking to gas as the energy and export-driver of the future. LNG - naturalgas supercooled and condensed for transportation by ship - is viewed by Washington as vital to the long-term

fuel supply. The ExxonMobil deal, worth $12 billion, is the centerpiece of these glittering prizes, but it hasdeep political implications as well. Qatar has emerged unscathed from the political strains the events of

September 11th placed on the United States' relations with the Gulf states. It proved itself a trusted

Arab ally through its support for US policy and military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq,

particularly by allowing the US Central Command to set up its operational headquarters in the

emirate when other Gulf states refused. Centcom is a vital element in President George W. Bush's war

against terrorism and the most active military command in the US defense establishment. Accordingto the Texas-based security think tank Stratfor, this has meant that Doha has been given 'access to sometop-shelf technology. In addition to de facto security guarantees that serve both countries' interests,

and the economic benefits of having a few thousands soldiers kicking around their country, having

Centcom in Doha gives Qatar a say in how, where and when US forces operate and policy is

implemented - massively magnifying the small state's geopolitical punch.'


18/47


Heg ! 2NC

A. US/Qatar relations are key basing, power projection and hegemony

ChristopherBlanchard, Analyst in Middle Eastern Affairs, 1/24/08 http://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL31718.pdfThe Al Udeid airbase south of Doha, the Qatari capital, serves as a logistics, command, and basing hubfor U.S. operations in Afghanistan and Iraqi. Nearby Camp As Sayliyah is the largest pre-positioningfacility of U.S. military equipment in the world. Qatar invested over $1 billion to construct the Al Udeidair base during the 1990s: it did not have an air force of its own at the time. Qatars financing andconstruction of the state-of-the-art air force base at Al Udeid was widely interpreted to be a tacit

invitation to deeper cooperation with U.S. military forces, and U.S. access to the base there wasformalized in late 2000. In April 2003, the U.S. Combat Air Operations Center for the Middle East movedfrom Prince Sultan Airbase in Saudi Arabia to Qatars Al Udeid. Qatar is contributing $400 million to U.S.efforts to upgrade and construct facilities there, including a new air operations command center. 34 FromFY2003 to FY2007, Congress appropriated and authorized $126 million for U.S. military constructionactivities in Qatar. The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2008 (H.R. 4986) authorizes$81.7 million in FY2008 spending to build new Air Force and Special Operations facilities in Qatar.

B. Nuclear war

Zalmay Khalilzad, Senior Analyst at RAND, 1995 Washington Quarterly, Spring, LexisUnder the third option, the United States would seek to retain global leadership and to preclude the rise of aglobal rival or a return to multipolarity for the indefinite future. On balance, this is the best long-term guidingprinciple and vision. Such a vision is desirable not as an end in itself, but because a world in which theUnited States exercises leadership would have tremendous advantages. First, the global environment wouldbe more open and more receptive to American values -- democracy, free markets, and the rule of law. Second,such a world would have a better chance of dealing cooperatively with the world's major problems, such asnuclear proliferation, threats of regional hegemony by renegade states, and low-level conflicts. Finally, U.S.leadership would help preclude the rise of another hostile global rival, enabling the United States andthe world to avoid another global cold or hot war and all the attendant dangers, including a globalnuclear exchange. U.S. leadership would therefore be more conducive to global stability than a bipolar

or a multipolar balance of power system.


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Ext. Heg Internal Link

Qatar is key to US power projection and hegemony.

MEMRI Middle East Media Research Institute, 7/22/08http://www.memri.org/bin/articles.cgi?Page=archives&Area=sd&ID=SP199608

"Qatar is the Largest U.S. Military Base, With the Exception of NATO Member Countries " "Last night,an article appeared in the Qatari daily Al-Sharq, authored by one Fawaz Al-'Ajami. Al-'Ajami condemns theArab leaders for their eagerness to respond to invitations extended by foreign leaders, who seek to promotetheir own and their allies' interests - France's invitation to the Mediterranean Union is a case in point.[Al-'Ajami] claims that France hopes to achieve economic development by opening up markets in the Arabcountries - 'they export [goods], while we [i.e. the Arab countries] import [them].' "The columnist points outthat instead of helping to promote foreign interests, the Arabs should demand [the establishment of] a unionto deal with their own issues, such as Palestine, the Golan Heights, Sudan, Ethiopia-occupied Somalia, andthe independence of Lebanon. While stressing the urgency of [establishing] an Arab union, brother FawazAl-'Ajami forgets that his own country - Qatar - is doing the least for the Arabs, and there are numerousexamples to that effect. Qatar is the largest U.S. military base, with the exception of NATO membercountries. The Al-'Udaid air base [in Qatar] is [a source of] power for the U.S. army in the Gulf,

providing the American occupying forces in Iraq with air cover and logistical aid."


20/47


Middle East War !

A. LNG allows Qatar to secure its influence in Middle East peace.

The Economist, Jun 5th 2008, Economist.com, Small country, big ideas,http://www.economist.com/world/africa/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11506776

IN 1952, the year that Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al Thani was born, Qatar had fewer than 40,000 people, most of them barefoot nomads

and fishermen, and not a single school. The emirate he rules now hosts Education City, a complex of branch campuses from some of theworld's most prestigious colleges. According to IMF figures, the country's 950,000 residents this year surpassed those of Luxembourg to

become the world's richest. They enjoy an income per person of $80,870. Yet that plump figure belies the far greater private wealth ofnative Qatari citizens, who number fewer than 200,000 but who own nearly all the emirate's assets, as opposed to the army of foreignguest workers who serve them. Most of that wealth came easily, from oil. But Sheikh Hamad has succeeded in achieving something thatother petro-despots have not. Qatar's emir has stamped this Jamaica-sized patch of flat, scorched desert, which sticks out of Saudi Arabiainto the Gulf like a sore thumb, firmly on the map of international diplomacy. Last month he coaxed Lebanon's viciously bickering

politicians into ending a crippling 18-month power struggle, flying them to his capital, Doha, to thrash out an agreement. Qatar hasalso mediated between insurgent clansmen and the government of Yemen, and acted as an increasingly

well-trampled bridge between the Middle East's polarised camps: America and its pro-Western Arab

allies on the one hand, and the resistance block that includes Iran, Syria and the Islamist parties

Hamas in Palestine and Hizbullah in Lebanon on the other. The talk now is of Sheikh Hamad healing the riftbetween Hamas and Fatah, the secular party of the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, and fostering a rapprochement between Syria

and its estranged Arab brothers. Qatar's oil money has certainly helped to make peace.A free week spent in one ofDoha's six-star hotels would dull the meanest fighting spirit, and there are wags in Lebanon, for instance, who contend that their

politicians pocketed other, bigger sweeteners. But there has been plenty of fast Qatari footwork too. Since Sheikh Hamad ousted hisfather in a bloodless coup in 1995, observers have questioned the apparently erratic course of Qatari foreign policy. But under theguidance of his distant cousin, Sheikh Hamad bin Jasim, the long-serving foreign minister, and more recently also prime minister, Qatarhas cut the apron strings that traditionally tie smaller Gulf states to bigger, older regional powers such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, andadopted a firmly independent line. The emirate has assiduously wooed the United States, inviting its Central Command to set up itsforward headquarters at al-Udeid, an airbase near Doha, in time for the invasion of Iraq in 2003. The base has one of the biggest stocksof American military supplies anywhere in the world. Qatar has also pleased America by regularly hosting Israeli officials, and bysending a generous $100m in aid to help those hit by Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Yet the country has reached out to America's enemies,too. As host of the annual summit of Gulf Arab leaders this year, Sheikh Hamad broke with tradition to invite Iran's controversial

president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, to attend. Following Hamas's election victory in 2006, the sheikh publicly scolded America forworking to undermine the results of the democratic process in Palestine. He has sent aid to help Gazans under Israeli siege, and millionsmore to help reconstruct the mostly Shia parts of Lebanon that Israel bombed in its war in the summer of 2006 with Hizbullah, whoseleader, Hassan Nasrallah, he is said to admire. Qatari property investment has also helped to bolster Syria's sagging economy.Meanwhile, both Sheikh Hamads have generously sponsored the Qatar-based satellite channel, al-Jazeera, whose lively, critical coverageand reform-Islamist leanings continue to attract high audience ratings, while annoying both pro-Israeli Americans as well as religiously

conservative Saudis. But the apparent contradictions in Qatar's policy are now paying off. Other mediators failed in

Lebanon, for instance, because they were not seen as neutral. And even if it is just Qatar's money thatwins friends, there is plenty more of that coming. The emirate's output of liquid natural gas, its biggestexport, is set to double in the next five years.

B. Global war.

Reuters 2007Middle East turmoil could cause world war: U.S. envoy. 8/27.http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSL2719552620070827

Upheaval in the Middle East and Islamic civilization could cause another world war, the U.S.ambassador to the United Nations was quoted as saying in an Austrian newspaper interview published onMonday. Zalmay Khalilzad told the daily Die Pressethe Middle East was now so disordered that it had thepotential to inflame the world as Europe did during the first half of the 20th century. "The (Middle

East) is going through a very difficult transformation phase. That has strengthened extremism and

creates a breeding ground for terrorism," he said in remarks translated by Reuters into English from the published

German."Europe was just as dysfunctional for a while. And some of its wars became world wars. Nowthe problems of the Middle Eastand Islamic civilizationhave the same potential to engulf the world," he wasquoted as saying.


21/47


Ext. Middle East War Internal Link

Qatars economic stability is key to peace in the Middle East.

Nicholas BlanfordBeirut correspondent for the Christian Science Monitor 5/23/08 Why Qatar is emerging asMiddle East peacemaker http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0523/p06s02-wome.html?page=1

Doha, Qatar- This tiny Gulf state emerged this week at the forefront of regional diplomacy, successfullyshepherding the negotiations between feuding Lebanese factions to end months of political turmoil and

violence. With regional powers, such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, aligned behind rival players in Lebanon,Qatar is uniquely suited to help mediate Lebanon's crisis. It's seen as charting an unashamedly

independent path in the maze of Arab politics,"Just a year ago, Saudi Arabia was trying to do this [mediation], but Saudi Arabia is considered an interestedparty. But Qatar is somewhat in between," says Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Endowment's MiddleEast Center in Beirut. "Qatar, on the Lebanon issue, is the only country with good relations on both sidesand has the money to back it up."Qatar's intense mediation bore fruit Wednesday in a last-minute deal onthe composition of the next Lebanese government, an electoral law, the election of a new president, and afuture dialogue on the fate of the militant Shiite Hezbollah's weapons. In a highly factionalized Middle East,where the US and Iran and their respective regional allies are struggling for dominance, Qatar is in theunusual position of having a foot in both camps. It remains a key ally of Washington, hosting the Al-UdeidAir Base, the largest US military facility in the region. It enjoys economic ties to Israel, and Israeli officials

often participate in meetings and conferences in Doha. YetQatar also is Syria's closest Arab friend,investing millions of dollars in major property development projects and providing diplomatic

support.The Damascus regime is viewed with hostility by other key Arab states, such as Saudi Arabia,Jordan, and Egypt, for its close ties to Iran and influence in Lebanon. According to Qataris, Syrian PresidentBashar al-Assad and his wife, Asma, are often seen wandering through Doha's gleaming shopping malls asguests of Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al Thani. A thumb-shaped peninsula jutting into the Persian Gulf,Qatar possesses the third-largest gas deposits in the world and last year became the world's largest

liquefied natural gas exporter.Oil and gas amount to more than 60 percent of gross domestic product,making it one of the higher per-capita income states in the world. While many Arab Gulf countries fret aboutIran's regional ambitions, Qatar enjoys genial relations with the Islamic Republic. In December, IranianPresident Mahmoud Ahmadinejad became the first Iranian head of state to attend the annual summit of theGulf Cooperation Council in Doha. "Qatar is a tiny fish stuck between giants Iran and Saudi Arabia," saysHady Amr, director of the Brookings Doha Center. "It simply tries to balance all those interests with those of

the US. So it does have the US military base, but it actively balances this with deeper relations with Iran."Despite its limited size, Qatar is "rising in regional and even international prominence as a convener of

vital conferences," Mr. Amr adds, citing the World Trade Organization's Doha Round and the Asian Gamesamong others.


22/47


AT: Qatar Corrupt/Econ not liberalized

Qatar has a transparent and liberalized economy capable of increased investment.

BuyUsa.Com 08 (U.S. Commercial service "Market of the Month Qatar" Doha Qatar SkylineQatar - Market ofthe Month January 2008, http://www.buyusa.gov/sacramento/qatarmarket.html) //DG

Doing Business in Qatar There is great optimism and excitement among the business community inQatar. By transforming hydrocarbon wealth into modern health facilities, tourism infrastructure, andwestern-style education institutions, the Qatari Government aims to engender a forward-looking and highlyskilled population. The Qatari Government has established credibility among the population and the businesscommunity. When plans and projects are announced, they are usually realized, and contracts are awarded in agenerally efficient and transparent manner. Qatar is very amenable to western visitors, and securityexperts consider Qatar one of the lowest crime countries on earth. U.S. Commercial Service DirectorGeneral Israel Hernandez at U.S. Commercial Service Doha Opening Ceremony In the last five years,Qatar has liberalized its trade and investment climate in line with its WTO obligations by reducing

tariffs, removing unnecessary restrictions and barriers to trade, and providing foreign investors more

opportunities. There are many positive aspects to Qatars business framework. U.S. companies report thatthe customs clearing process is generally problem-free. Qatari companies and customers are highlyinterested in working with Americans and buying U.S. products and services. Doing business with

Qatar Petroleum and the public sector is in general transparent and efficient. When disputes do arise, it

is possible to resolve commercial disputes in Qatari courts, though the process is more time-consuming thanin the United States. U.S. firms also report that industrial standards that are applied in Qatar arefavorable to U.S. exports. Qatar has a stable currency and the country imposes no foreign exchange

controls. There are well-capitalized financial institutions in Qatar. Furthermore, the government

permits up to 100% of foreign ownership in agriculture, manufacturing, health, education, tourism,

power, and projects involved in Qatars natural resources. However, with all of this tremendousgrowth and development comes some expected growing pains. In some cases, the countrys economy is

growing faster than the evolution of necessary laws and procedures affecting business to keep up.Sometimes regulations are not widely published and are at times enforced with little or no consultation withthe private sector. Shortages in materials and labor are common in this red-hot economic environment. Inaddition, rent is increasing rapidly given the growth of the economy and the influx of foreign workers intoQatar, and high overall inflation continues to be a concern throughout the region. The US CommercialService has recently opened an office in Qatar, and stands ready to assist US firms in their market

development efforts in this dynamic country. Business dealings in Qatar, and throughout the Middle Eastrely on personal interaction and business relationships take time to cultivate. American firms

considering Qatar as a market are encouraged to visit and avail themselves of the counseling andcustomized services available from the Commercial Section of the American Embassy in Doha. Why Qatar?


23/47


AT: Domestic Reserves Solve

Domestic supply isnt enough- Qatar and foreign suppliers are key

MichaelKlare professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College, 2006 The Nation, TheGeopolitics of Natural Gas, 1-23-2006, www.thirdworldtraveler.com/Oil_watch/Geopolitics_NaturalGas.html) //JMP

Item. Ever since India announced plans more than a year ago to build a natural gas pipeline from fields in Iran to its own territory viaPakistan, the Bush Administration has been applying pressure on New Delhi to cancel the project, claiming it will undermine US attemptsto isolate Tehran and curb its nuclear efforts. "We have communicated to the Indian government our concerns about the gas pipelinecooperation between Iran and India," Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced after meeting with Indian Foreign Minister Natwar

Singh on March 16. But the Indians have continued talks with Islamabad and Tehran over the pipeline plan. The United States is

becoming increasingly dependent on natural gas. This country now relies on natural gas for approximately one-fourth of itstotal energy supply, more than from any source except oil. As a result, the economy has become more and more vulnerable to fluctuations ingas supply and pricing-a vulnerability that should be especially evident this winter as gas prices hit record levels, with painful effects on the

poor. Natural gas provides approximately 14 percent of the energy used to generate electricity in this country, 45 percent of home heatingfuel and 31 percent of the energy and petrochemicals consumed by agriculture and industry. Gas is also used as a feedstock for the

manufacture of hydrogen, a promising new entrant in the race to develop alternative fuels. The United States currently relies on

North American supplies for most of its gas, but with those reserves being depleted at a rapid pace and

few untapped fields available for exploitation, need for gas from other regions is growing and energy

plants seek more gas from foreign suppliers like Qatar ,Nigeria and Russia. As with oil, America could become heavilydependent on foreign suppliers for essential energy needs, a situation fraught with danger for national security. Many of America's key

allies, including the NATO powers and Japan, are dependent on imports.

North American LNG wont be enough to keep up.

Hil Anderson 16 Junnn 2008, United Press International, Natural Gas economics turn international, LexisNexis, AB

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan Tuesday dumped icy cold water on the notion that natural

gas will be able to keep the U.S. economy humming without the uncertainty that accompanies

dependence on foreign oil imports. Testifying before the House Energy and Commerce Committee,

Greenspan said the nation appeared destined -- or doomed -- to include not only gas produced in North

America in its energy mix for the 21st century, but also on increasing volumes of liquefied natural gas,

or LNG, from overseas.


24/47


AT: Offshore Drilling Solves

Oil drilling in the U.S. is not enough to make the country independent of foreign oil.Ford Gunter, Houston Business Journal; November 26, 2007http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/stories/2007/11/26/daily10.html

Even so, according to a model built by the Baker Institute, opening restricted areas in the Outer Continental

Shelf and Rocky Mountains to drilling and resource development "will not render the United Statesenergy independent nor will it even lower U.S. dependence on LNG imports in 2015 by a significant

volume."


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US-Qatar Relations Strong

US-Qatar relations high- security cooperation and economic links

U.S. Department of State, June 2008 Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, Background Note: Qatar,http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/5437.htm

U.S.-QATARI RELATIONS Bilateral relations are strong and expanding. The U.S. embassy was openedin March 1973. The first resident U.S. ambassador arrived in July 1974. Ties between the U.S. and Qatar areexcellent. Amir Hamad last visited Washington in 2004, and President Bush visited Qatar in 2003. Qatar andthe United States coordinate closely on regional diplomatic initiatives, cooperate to increase security in

the Gulf, and enjoy extensive economic links, especially in the hydrocarbons sector. Qatar sees thedevelopment of a world-class educational system as key to its continued success. As a result, hundreds ofQataris study in the United States. Cornell University has established a degree-granting branch medicalschool campus in Doha, and other universities including Texas A&M, Carnegie Mellon University, theVirginia Commonwealth University School of Design, the Georgetown School of Foreign Service, andNorthwestern also have branch campuses in Qatar's "Education City" complex.

US-Qatar relations high- defense cooperation

ChristopherBlanchard, Analyst in Middle Eastern Affairs, 1/24/08 http://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL31718.pdfThe United States promptly recognized the assumption of power by Shaikh Hamad in June 1995 and haswelcomed Qatars defense cooperation, as well as Qatari political, economic, and educational reformefforts since that time. Qatari- U.S. defense relations have expanded over the last 15 years to includecooperative defense exercises, equipment pre-positioning, and base access agreements, although Qatariofficials have been, at times, critical of U.S. military operations in the Persian Gulf. 32 U.S. concernsregarding alleged material support for terrorist groups by some Qataris, including members of the royalfamily, have been balanced over time by Qatars counterterrorism efforts and its broader, long-termcommitment to host and support U.S. military forces being used in ongoing operations in Iraq, Afghanistan,and the global war on terrorism. Today, Qatari-U.S. relations remain cordial and close. Since September2005, Qatar has donated $100 million to victims of Hurricane Katrina in the U.S. Gulf states.


27/47


Dependence ! 2NC

A. Natural gas is the only way to break oil dependence

AgWeb.com, 7-9-08, Pickens Plan: Creating an Energy-Secure Future, LexisNexis, CMPickens says the U.S. has several fuel options, with some being better than others . Coal : "Coal is just notgoing to do it," he says. Natural Gas : Pickens believes natural gas is the best option for a transportationfuel source. He says it burns cleaner, is cheaper and is domestic. Additionally , he says nearly 8 millionvehicles in the world are capable of running on natural gas . Ethanol : Pickens admits ethanol is not goingto be the energy solution in the U.S., but says he likes it better than foreign oil. "Ethanol is an ugly baby, butit's our baby." Hydro power : "It works great," he says. But, he doesn't see it as a feasible option due to thelack of resources. Wind/Solar : Pickens applauds the use of both wind and solar as renewable energy sources.He says they haven't been developed as they should because foreign oil was too cheap for too long. Nuclear :"Nuclear will work," he says. "But, it will take a long time." The Plan Pickens believes the best candidatefor breaking the addiction to foreign oil is natural gas . "Natural gas is the second largest natural

resource in the country," he says. "It is the only resource in America we have that can make adifference." He also says the country has to develop more wind farms and that the U.S. has a better potentialfor large-scale wind power than any country in the world. He also believes building wind farms in ruralAmerica is a fabulous opportunity to turn a local economy around. By taking advantage of the U.S.'snatural gas resources and building new wind-generation facilities, as outlined in his plan, Pickens says

more than one-third of foreign oil imports will be replaced within 10 years.

B. Oil dependence causes terrorist attacks.

RJ Eskow, Huffington Post 8/16/06 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rj-eskow/a-national-security-initi_b_27355.html

Ourdependence on foreign oil greatly increases our susceptibilityto terrorism, by forcing us tocontinue supporting widely-hated, non-Democratic regimes in the Middle East. A sister initiative toreduce oil dependence would go a long way toward easing the terrorist threat, by allowing us to

become more neutral brokers in the Arabian peninsula.We also need to face some hard facts about

terrorists: In many ways, they've adopted far more advanced 21st Century techniques in this strugglethan we have. They use blogs, websites, emails, pop music, video, art, poetry ... even video games ... to buildsupport and find recruits.

C. ExtinctionSid-Ahmed 04 (Mohamed,- political analyst for Al-Ahram weekly Extinction! http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm

What would be the consequences of a nuclear attackby terrorists? Even if it fails, it would furtherexacerbate thenegative features of the new and frightening world in which we are now living. Societies would close in on themselves,police measures would be stepped up at the expense of human rights, tensions between civilisations and religions would riseand ethnic conflicts would proliferate. It would also speed up the arms race and develop the awareness that a differenttype of world order is imperative if humankind is to survive. But the still more critical scenario is if the attack succeeds.This could lead to a third world war, from which no one will emerge victorious. Unlike a conventional war which endswhen one side triumphs over another, this war will be without winners and losers. When nuclear pollution infects thewhole planet, we will all be losers.


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30/47


AT: Natural Gas Unsafe

It is unlikely that a large impact would result from LNG explosions

Council on Foreign Relations, written by Eben Kaplan 2/27/06 Liquefied Natural Gas: A Potential TerroristTarget? http://www.cfr.org/publication/9810/ OZ

But an attack on an LNG terminal might not be so damaging. Terminals are equipped with emergencyfire detection mechanisms designed to minimize the impact of fires resulting from terrorist attacks or

accidents. The most attractive targets are the boats: 1,000-foot tankers with double hulls and speciallyconstructed storage tanks that keep the LNG cold. A report, put out by Good Harbor Consulting assessing therisk of a proposed LNG terminal in Providence, Rhode Island, concluded that a successful terrorist attackon a tanker could result in as many as 8,000 deaths and upwards of 20,000 injuries. It is important to

keep in mind that this is the worst case scenario. A report on LNG safety and security by the University ofTexas' Center for Energy and Economics explains LNG "tanks require exceptionally large amounts offorce to cause damage. Because the amount of energy required to breach containment is so large, in

almost all cases the major hazard presented by terrorists is a fire, not an explosion."

The effects of any safety problem will not spread- no terminal impact

Dr. G. A. Melhem, PHD Professor of Structural Engineering 2006 Managing LNG Risks: Separating the Factsfrom the Myths updated 2006, http://archives1.iomosaic.com/whitepapers/Managing%20LNG%20Risks.pdf)

In summary, then, it is clear that there is a significant resurgence in proposed projects to import LNG into theUnited States. Along with this renewed interest it is understandable that there is increasing concernregarding the safety associated with large scale LNG importation. It is legitimate for an inquiring andconcerned public to ask pertinent questions and by the same token it is legitimate for those well versed inLNG safety to answer those questions. It is totally inappropriate for segments of the media and groups ofcitizens to engage in fear-mongering and initiate campaigns of misinformation. In this paper we havedrawn upon the vast amount of field measurements and data, operational and engineering information

regarding LNG gathered over the last 60 years to candidly address the safety issues associated with

large scale LNG importation. We have taken into account the new threats that have emerged in the form ofterrorism in our evaluations as well. The overall conclusion is straightforward. In the highly unlikelyevent of a very large scale release of LNG on land or water, significant impact will be felt in the vicinity

of the release. The zone of impact will be moderate but will not extend anywhere close to the 30 miles

predicted by some illinformed groups. As long as the LNG vapor cloud is unconfined, it will not explode. Ifthe cloud encounters populated areas it will quickly find an ignition source before covering large populatedareas and burn back to the spill site. If mass casualty is the goal of any terrorist group, then LNG facilitiesand tankers are not good targets. Finally, since the Cleveland accident of 1944, the LNG industry hasamassed 60 years of transportation and operational experience world wide without a single casualty

being inflicted on the general public.


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AT: Hurst Turns

Hurst is wrong and biased empirical evidence & testaments show

Maritime Accident Casebookwas created by Bob Couttie in June 2007. It quickly established itself as anauthoritative, credible source, popular among both seafarers and maritime accident investigators. It is a

voluntary, free resource for seafarers and those who train them and support is always welcome.6/25/08http://www.maritimeaccident.org/2008/06/25/lng-terrorism-al-quaida-is-winning/ OZ

Sharp eyes picked up on a headline in Maritime Safety News for 16th June: The LNG Threat:LiquefiedNatural Gas Tankers Remain Giant Terror Targets on the extremist American website The Cutting Edge,. Wewould have ignored it except that the report was based on a paper,.The Terrorist Threat to LiquefiedNatural Gas: Fact or Fiction? from a political analyst with the US militarys Foreign Military Studies

Office, Cindy Hurst, a Lieutenant Commander in the US Navy Reserve, and is, therefore, likely to be citedin other news reports and academic papers and may inform policy as the saying goes. The paperoriginateswith the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security,IAGS, a grouping of politicians, rightwing

activists and religious organisations and associated with the Make American Free Coalition which

tells us it is spearheading a global effort to transition the transportation sector to next-generation

fuels and vehicles that can utilize them, the United States can deny its adversaries the wherewithal they

use to harm us. The assumption of the paper is that LNG carriers are manned by non-American crews andflagged under non-US registries and until they are, America wont be safe: members of the public remain

adamantly opposed to bringing LNG with its foreign ships and crews into their backyards, perhaps rightlyso. Or, more likely, wrongly so. A sniffy person might point out that American men, women andchildren are more at risk from other American men, women and, sadly, children than from Al Quaida.

Eight times more Americans are killed by American bullets every year than died in the 9/11 attack at

foreign hands. Every American president subject to actual or attempted assassination has been the victimof an American with the sole exception of William Kinley in 1901. Says Hurst: The rest of the worlddoes not seem to share the same security and safety concerns as Americans regarding LNG. This could

be a potential problem.. Of course, it may be that the rest of the world has a far better idea of the real

potential for using an LNG carrier as a weapon and whther or not one is likely explode if attacked.

One of MACs correspondents, in command of an LNG tanker, criticised the Cutting Edge version of theHurst report: Yet another article by partisan authors scaring the pants off the American public. I am

master of one of these potential LNG bombers they seem so worried about and it distresses me beyond

words to be slandered in front of Congress. My crime is to be non-American. The union delegate

speaking to congress has alternate motives, hes looking for jobs for his members, terrorism is the redherring being used to convince the American public I am a threat. As for all this rot about flags ofconvenience, where does the author get her information from? In case anyone really is interested many of thenew LNG ships, including the one I am master of is registered in the Marshall Islands, which I believe is USterritory and a US second register. Cut out this nonsense and scaremongering. Tell the truth for achange. Anyone who knows anything about LNG tankers knows its almost impossible to blow such a

ship up. The mechanism posited by Hurst is a boiling-liquid-expanding-vapor-explosion or BLEVE andsuggests, based on a report citing a DNV executive, that Moss-type tanks are particularly at risk. She doesnot suggest any means by which this could occur. Indeed, one of Hursts sources, Scott Conway who hasserved eight years onboard LNG tankers and who is intimately familiar with the construction of the Mossspherical tanker, asks: Where is the BLEVE going to occur in this tank? Where are you going todirect the flames back at this tank to heat up the liquid? How are you going to build up the pressure so

that it overcomes the safety release? When you can explain this all logically as per the ships

construction, then well talk seriously. Neither Hurst, nor The Cutting Edge provide a practicalscenario for creating a BLEVE in a Moss tank, or any other LNG tank, logically or illogically .


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AT: Iran LNG

Iran isnt capable of supplying the US- Sanctions and lack of technology and infrastructre

AME Info, 3 (AME Info is the ultimate Middle East business resource, "Is Doha the next Dubai? Qatar's billion-dollar deals with big oil make it an economic heavyweight. Inside the Gulf's next energy superpower whoseambitions shadow those of Dubai," 12-3-2003, www.ameinfo.com/31790.html) // JMP

Qatar is ideally positioned to become the leading gas supplier to its partners in the Gulf Cooperation

Council. Demand has been rising at 6.5 percent a year and some of these states are already findingthemselves hard put to meet it. By 2005, the GCC's overall deficit is expected to hit 4.5 billion cubic feet perday, and 6 billion cubic feet per day by 2010. Collectively, the GCC's current gas reserves are estimated at975 trillion cubic feet. But with the exception of Qatar these are mostly what is known as 'associated gas'linked to oil production and not capable of meeting the rising demand for gas. Saudi Arabia has anestimated 25 trillion cubic feet of oil-associated gas and is in the process of opening up its upstream gassector to foreign investment, the first time that has happened since the oil industry was nationalized in 1975.But that is proving to be a laborious process and it will take years before production begins. Even then, thegas will be used for domestic consumption rather than export. Iran is the only regional state that can rivalQatar's gas reserves. Its big offshore South Pars field in the Gulf, for instance, is ripe for foreign

investment. But Iran is having to struggle to attract sufficient technology and funds to develop its

massive reserves and lags far behind Qatar's breakneck development program over the last 10 years or

so. Unilateral sanctions imposed on Iran by the United States prevent American companies fromproviding investment. The GCC has long talked about building a regional gas grid based in Qatar's

North Field to supply the alliance's member states. Recurring power shortages in the region have given

the project some urgency, yet the idea, like many others involving collective GCC participation, has

foundered because of a lack of political will. Another Gulf-wide project - an oil pipeline starting inKuwait to link all the GCC countries - would provide export terminals for tankers on the Arabian Sea coast,rather than inside the Gulf. Shipping routes out of the Gulf have to pass through the chokepoint Strait ofHormuz, which is vulnerable to blockage. The idea has been kicking around for decades, and is trotted outwith every regional crisis, but always winds up getting shelved - as it did when the GCC oil ministers met inDoha in early November. Perhaps the prospects for the gas grid will fare better as regional demand forQatar's abundance of this source of energy inexorably mounts.


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Natural Gas Solves the Aff Better- Warming (1/2)

Gas is the only viable way to reduce emissions- alternative energy will fail.

Foster Natural Gas Report, 10-5-07, Report No. 2663; Pg. 8, No Restraint: Chesapeake Energy CEOContinues Offensive To Promote Natural Gas Over Coal, LexisNexis, CM

Aubrey McClendon is pushing natural gas as clean, abundant, and affordable, the best solution forglobal warming and national energy security. The chief executive officer (CEO) of Oklahoma City-basedChesapeake Energy Corp. distributed a "Gas Manifesto" at the Natural Gas Roundtable on September 27making the case for each of his claims. Chesapeake, which boasts former Oklahoma Governor FrankKeating (R) and former U.S. Senator Don Nickles (R) as board members, grew from an initial investment of$50,000 to become one of the largest gas producers in the United States and the largest independent gasproducer. The company has been exploring or acquiring assets in the Mid-Continent, Forth Worth BarnettShale, Fayetteville Shale, Permian Basin, Delaware Basin, South Texas, Texas Gulf Coast, Ark-La-Tex andAppalachian Basins. Chesapeake is gas-heavy, with only about 8% of its holdings in oil. After the 1998-1999 price collapse, McClendon and partners bet that unconventional gas formations like tight sands andshale would become more economic, given the "structural increase" in gas prices and improvements inhorizontal directional drilling (HDD) and well-completion technologies. From 2000 to 2006, they launchedan aggressive leasing program to acquire proven developed and undeveloped reserves and, later, possible andprobable reserves. The company now has a 10-year inventory of drilling sites, 12.2 million onshore acres

under lease, 3-D seismic data for 17.7 million acres, and 10 Tcf of estimated proved reserves - all east of theRockies. Production growth is at 19% this year, and Chesapeake expects 18-22% in 2007, 14-18% in 2008,and 12-16% in 2009. "There's a lot more gas out there than anyone realizes ," McClendon told theRoundtable, and one big reason is that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) employs adefinition of "proven" gas reserves that he considers obsolete. The current definition, he told FNGR,captures reserves in vertical but not horizontal plays, which can be substantial. The latest Potential GasCommittee study by the Colorado School

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