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“what a climate model is, and what uncertainty means”
Noah S. Diffenbaugh
Department of Environmental Earth System Science and Woods Institute for the Environment
Stanford University
Two basic parts:
-“Dynamics”- Atmospheric circulation- Ocean circulation
-“Physics”- Radiation- Clouds- Precipitation- Land surface fluxes- and more…..
From Marshall and Plumb, Elsevier, 2008
Te = [S0(1-ap) / 4σ] 1/4
Te = emission temp
S0 = solar “constant”
ap = planetary albedo
σ = Stefan-Boltzman constant
Santer et al., 2007
Observed and Modeled Water Vapor Content
• important for greenhouse effect• important for atmospheric circulation• important for extreme events
Climate Feedbacks
Santer et al., 2007
http://internationalspacestationpictures.com/pictures-of-earth-from-space.php
NASA
Diffenbaugh and Ashfaq, 2010
U.S.A. Summer Soil-Moisture/Temperature/Precipitation
Coupling2030-2039 minus 1980-1999
Severe Thunderstorm Environments
• Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE)
Brooks et al., 2003
Pole-equator temperature gradient
Thermal Wind Equation
S6
• Vertical Wind Shear
Trapp et al., 2007