WHAT A PHYSICIST CAN SAY ABOUT GLOBAL POPULATION GROWTH

Sergey P. KapitzaInstitute for Physical Problems

Russian Academy of Science, Moscow

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WORLD POPULATION FROM 2000 BC TO 3000 AD1 -- DATA OF BIRABEN, 2 -- BLOW-UP, 3 -- DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, 4 -- STABILIZED POPULATION, 5 --ANCIENT WORLD, 6--MIDDLE AGES,7--MODERNITY, 8--RECENT HISTORY

PASSAGE THROUGH THE POPULATION TRANSITION

1– FRANCE, 2 – GERMANY, 3 – RUSSIA, 4 – USA,

5 – MAURITIUS, 6 – SRI LANKA, 7 – COSTA RICA,

8 – WORLD

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ANNUAL GROWTH AVERAGED OVER A DECADE1 – DEVELOPED AND 2 – DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

WORLD DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

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MAIN ASSUMPTIONS MADE IN MODELING

• GLOBAL POPULATION IS A DYNAMIC SYSTEM

• MANKIND IS A SINGLE SPECIES Homo sapiens

• SYSTEM IS COUPLED BY INTERACTIONS

• GROWTH IS STATISTICALLY DETERMINED AND

DYNAMICALY SELF-SIMILAR, HENCE IT SCALES

• LIMITS OF SCALING ARE SET BY LIFE SPAN

• GROWTH IS PROPORTIONAL TO SQUARE OF

GLOBAL POPULATION AND IS NON-LINEAR

MAIN RESULTS OF MODELLING GLOBAL POPULATION GROWTH

BLOW-UP OF POPULATION GROWTH:

GROWTH RATE:

GROWTH BEFORE AND AFTER:

CONSTANTS:

POPULATION LIMIT: BEGINNING: PEOPLE WHO EVER LIVED:

INSTANTANEUS EXPONENTIAL GROWTH: %10011

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PRINCIPAL RESULTS OF THEORY

• GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT DESCRIBED THROUGHOUT ALL OF HUMAN EXISTENCE

• GROWTH IS CULMINATED BY DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION — A REVOLUTIONARY CHANGE

• GLOBAL POPULATION LIMIT AT 10 –12 BILLION• PEOPLE, WHO LIVED ON EARTH 100 BILLION• PERIODS OF PAST HISTORY AND PREHISTORY

SEEN ON A CONTRACTING TIME SCALE• INTERNAL FACTORS DETERMINE TRANSITION,

AND NOT BY ENVIRONMENT OR RESOURCES

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POPULATION OF THE WORLD 1750–2200

1 – PROJECTIONS BY IIASA AND UN, 2 – MODEL, o – 1995

3 – BLOW-UP, 4 – DIFFERENCE OF MODEL AND PROJECTIONS x 5 times

POPULATION OF MANKIND FROM ORIGINS

AND INTO THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE

14Growth and development of mankind

Table 3. Growth and development of humankind, shown on a logarithmic scale

Epoch Period

Dateyear

Numberof people

Cultural period Tyears

Events in history, culture, andtechnology

2200 11 109 Stabilizingglobal

Global population limit 12109

Changing age distribution

C2050 9 109

Population125 Globalization

T1 2000 6 109World

demographic45 Urbanization Internet

111955 3 x109

Revolution45

BiotechnologyComputers

101840 1 x109

Recent 125World Wars

Electric power

91500

Modern 340Industrial revolution

Printing

8500 AD

Middle Ages 1000Geographic discoveries

Fall of Rome

72000 BC

108

Ancient World 2500Christ, MuhammadGreek civilization

India, China, Buddha, ConfuciusMesopotamia, Egypt

B 69000

Neolithic 7,000 Writing, CitiesBronze and iron metallurgyDomestication and agriculture

529,000

107

Mesolithic 20,000 Microliths

480,000

Moustier 51,000America populated

ShamanismHomo sapiens

30.22 Ma 106 Acheulean 1.4105

LanguageSpeech, Fire

20.6 Ma

Chelles 3.8105Europe and Asia populated

Hand axes

11.6 Ma 105 Olduvai 1 106

ChoppersHomo habilis

A T0 4 - 5Ma (1) Anthropo-genesis

3 106Hominida separate from

Hominoids

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AGE DISTRIBUTIONS IN THE DEVELPED AND DEVELOPING WORLD IN 1975 AND 2000

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CHANGE IN AGE DISTRIBUTION FOR GLOBAL POPULATION

1 – AGE GROUP YONGER THAN 14 YEARS, 2 – OLDER THAN 65 YEARS 3 – OLDER THAN 80, A – DEVELOPING, B – DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

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CONSEQUENCES OF GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHIC REVOLUTION

• Zero growth rate • Stabilized population• New age structure• New time structure• Ethnic changes• Massive migrations ?• Changes in mobility ?• Predominance of old

generations setting challenges for health and social security

• Further globalization• Alternative of stagnation

or new development ?• Deindustrialization • Transition to an

information society• Expansion of services:

health,education,science• Emergence of new

priorities and values in consumption,environmnt

ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHIC

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PRINCIPLES OF META-ECONOMICS

• RIGHT FROM THE BEGINNING, GROWTH OF MANKIND

WAS DETERMINED BY GENERALIZED INFORMATIONAL

FACTORS THAT MODERATED SOCIAL EVOLUTION AND

DEVELOPNENT

• THE GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION TO A

STABILIZED POPULATION IS DETERMINED BY THE

LIMITS OF THE INFORMATION SOCIETY

• THE FUTURE WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE «SOFTWARE» — CULTURE OF AN INFORMATION DOMINATED WORLD, RATHER THAN THE «HARDWARE» OF INDUSTRY, AS IN THE PAST

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DEINDUSTRIALIZATION: TOTAL U.S. WORK FORCE IN 20-th CENTURY

WHAT DRIVES DEVELOPMENT?

‘THE FAILURE TO UNDERSTAND THAT THE ROOTS OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOUR LIE IN THE REALM OF CONSCIOUSNESS AND CULTURE LEADS TO THE COMMON MISTAKE OF ATTRIBUTING MATERIAL CAUSES TO PHENOMENA THAT ARE ESSENTIALLY IDEAL IN NATURE.’

FRANCIS FUCUYAMA

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ISSUES IN THE POST — TRANSITION WORLD

• IS THE DOMINANCE OF THE MARKET, WITH ITS SHORT RANGE TIME SCALE A REACTION TO D.T.

• CAN THE DILEMMA OF SELF-ORGANIZATION v.s. ORGANIZATION FIND ITS RESOLUTION

• CAN A DECREASE IN MILITANCE BE EXPECTED IN A

WORLD WITH A STABILIZED POPULATION ?• CAN IN THIS WORLD LONG RANGE SOCIAL ISSUES

BE FACED BY GLOBAL GOVERNANCE, NOW CONSPICIOUSLY ABSENT ?

• WILL GLOBAL PROBLEMS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE IN AN EMERGENT NEW WORLD ?