What are future

studies?

A social science for

predicting the future

Futurologists• Sociologists who study the

future

• use scientific methodologies to hypothesise about the future of society.

• They use methodologies such as

-scenario writing

-simulation games (asking people to play out possible scenarios)

-asking experts, and

-analysing trends from the past and present.

Trend analysis

Use patterns observable in the past or present society to make predictions about the future

Delphi Methodexperts are asked to complete rounds of questionnaires on the likely future. The

researcher then analyses these responses and plans the next round of questionnaires for the experts. The results are graphed, interpreted, and used to form conclusions about the most likely future.

• Who would you consider to be experts who could discuss the future of Egypt? Would the choice of experts be different depending who the researcher was?

In pairs: Go through your notes and decide on 5

“experts” for the Delhi Method of futurology.

Justify your choices. Do they represent a

variety of perspectives?

Scenario Writing

• analysts get together and imagine possible scenarios that could arise in the future. They write out a small number of these scenarios then plot then on a grid. Scenario writing is quantitative and typically used in military planning and business.

Themes in the Core Study• Why did we look at Egypt for continuity

& change? Why not another country? Australia? Japan? England? Look at your syllabus and discuss in pairs.

Tahrir Square, 2011, captured the sociological imagination of millions around the world

The revolution cast doubt over many of the assumptions of modern society… what are the key assumptions of modern society?

-What is modern society?-What does modern society see as “commonsense”,

“normal” and “good”-Have these ideas been challenged?-How?

Key assumptions of modern society

1. That the “East” and the “West” are irreconcilable

Where have you heard this assumption? Do you - or did you ever - believe it? Why? Consider evidence in the world today for and against

this statement

Key assumptions of modern society

• 2. Belief systems rather than social class are the key determinant of conflict

• Where have you heard this assumption? • Do you - or did you ever - believe it? Why? • Consider evidence in the world today for and against

this statement

Key assumptions of modern society

3. Capitalism is the final stage of social evolution

• Where have you heard this assumption? • Do you - or did you ever - believe it? Why? • Consider evidence in the world today for and

against this statement

Key assumptions of modern society

4. globalisation has led us all to a state of consumerist stupor (we’ve been numbed and dumbed!)

-Where have you heard this assumption?

-Do you - or did you ever - believe it? Why?

-Consider evidence in the world today for and against this statement

“The End of History”-Whose idea was it?-What does the “the end of history” mean?-When did the idea emerge?-Why did the idea stick?-How has the theory of the “end of history” been challenged over the last18 months? -Who (what groups, individuals and schools of thought) benefited from the theory?-Do you, or have you ever, agreed with the theory?

Egypt: in the eyes of the West-What did the western media say about the revolution? Why?

-Have there been different responses?

-Which groups or schools of thought celebrated / loathed the revolution?

Themes of interest for the West:• The “surprising” visibility of Egyptian women in the public

sphere - certainly a break with tradition. This level of gender equality in public has not been seen since the post-

colonial pro-Soviet days of President Nasser in the 1950s. List examples of media you have seen as evidence of

this thematic interest

• The use of social media (technology) to disseminate ideas and report events. What does this suggest for the future of information? That it will be more inclusive? Democratic? That old, authoritarian corporate news media will be surpassed by media that

is inclusive, democratic and collaborative? List examples of media you have seen as evidence

of this thematic interest

• The lack of ethnic and religious sectarianism in the protests: especially since 9/11, Western

media has been fascinated by ethnic and religious conflict in the Middle East, commonly

implying that the cause of war is religious fundamentalism rather than imperialism or class

conflict. The Tahrir Square protests were characterised by religious unity. A popularly

reported scene was of Christian Coptic Egyptians forming a protective barrier around Muslim

Egyptians during prayer time to protect them from rabble-rousers, armed thugs and military.

List examples of media you have seen as evidence of this thematic interest

Revision

• Now its up to you to use past exam questions, your notes, peer essay plans etc to revise on this topic.

• You should spend time next holidays revising Continuity & Change.