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Ant Wilson
Director/AECOM Fellow
Building Engineering
AECOM
20th June 2013
“What Happens When the Lights go Out”
2 20/6/2013
What Happens When the Lights go OUT?
Agenda
09.30 Welcome - Ant Wilson, AECOM
09.40 UK loss of load probability - Bill Wright, ECA
10.00 Workshop introduction - Ant Wilson, AECOM
10.20 Workshop
11.30 Coffee
11.45 Workshop
12.00 Feedback from workshop
12.45 Summary, Ant Wilson, AECOM
13.00 Networking lunch
3 20/6/2013
What Happens When the Lights go OUT?
What The Workshop Will Cover
What will be affected if power outages or voltage reduction and surges
become reality?
What risks will this pose for businesses?
.
What will the issues be for business continuity?
What processes/procedures have already been put in place?
What can BSRIA produce to help support members?
4 20/6/2013
What Happens When the Lights go OUT?
Growing Energy Consumption
5 20/6/2013
What Happens When the Lights go OUT?
Sustainability Issues (How Green ?)
Energy Carbon
Water
Materials Comfort
Fabrics
Form
Productivity
Flexible
Functional Renewables
Cost
Resources
Social
Control
Conservation Resilience
Risk
Adaptability
Flexibility
Smart Technology
6 20/6/2013
What Happens When the Lights go OUT?
Low Carbon Construction Action Plan – June 2011
7 20/6/2013
What Happens When the Lights go OUT?
Developing Carbon Measurement Tools
8 20/6/2013
What Happens When the Lights go OUT?
The Carbon Plan: Delivering Our Low Carbon Future – December 2011
9 20/6/2013
What Happens When the Lights go OUT?
The Climate Change Act 2008 and the Carbon Budget Framework
10 20/6/2013
What Happens When the Lights go OUT?
EPC Rating Against Real Performance
11 20/6/2013
What Happens When the Lights go OUT?
Terminology - We Need to get it Right!!!!
Compliance
Operational
Asset
Design
Actual
As-built
Measured
Normalised
Plug Loads
Process Loads
Unregulated Loads
12 20/6/2013
What Happens When the Lights go OUT?
Zero Carbon Hub – Carbon Compliance for Tomorrow’s New Homes
13 20/6/2013
What Happens When the Lights go OUT?
Low Carbon Routemap Launched at Ecobuild
14 20/6/2013
What Happens When the Lights go OUT?
THANK YOU FOR LISTENING
WILL THE LIGHTS GO OUT?
Bill Wright
Head of Energy Solutions
ECA
(Based on a presentation to the REF by Glyn Jones of SPG)
OFGEM Report
In its first annual electricity capacity assessment, OFGEM
forecast de-rated generation margins to decline from currently
14% to merely 4% in 2015-16.
De-rated capacity margins take into account the intermittent
nature of wind generation and the fact that conventional
generation plants may not be available at all times because of
maintenance or break down.
Definitions
ACS Peak GB Demand (Average Cold Spell):
The estimated unrestricted winter peak demand on the National Electricity
Transmission system.
Generation or Plant Margin:
The amount by which the total installed capacity of directly connected Power Stations
and Embedded Large Power Stations and imports across directly connected External
Interconnections exceeds the Average Cold Spell Peak Demand : This is often
expressed as a percentage (e.g. 20%) or as a decimal fraction (e.g. 0.2) of the ACS
Peak Demand.
Loss of Load Probability (LOLP):
is a measure of the reliability of an electrical grid; the probability that there is
insufficient generating supply to support electrical demand.
Loss of Load Expectation
expected number of hours in a year when the hourly peak load is not met because of a
generation capacity deficiency.
Generation Mix
IN OUT
1) Wind (on and off shore) 1) Unabated coal
2) Water 2) Old gas (but could change)
3) New Nuclear (eventually) 3) Old Nuclear
4) CCS (Clean Coal – eventually)
5) Other renewables
6) Gas
BUT
(1) Single big assets replace smaller/flexible units.
(2) Huge up-front costs.
UK Policy
Government: 2005-2010 signed :
Key European Directives that cleans or closes fossil plant
- Large Combustion Plant Directive (impact by 2016).
- Industrial Emissions Directive (impact by 2021-23).
Max Demand 60.5GW
Capacity Outlook
Demand v Capacity
Problems looming!
1) The UK will over the next five/ten years have the lowest generation plant
margins since the 1960’s..
2) The intended increasing reliance on wind power assumes that the UK as a
whole will not be affected by periods of cold weather at the same time as
minimum wind.
3) The UK is the only European country with no Public Sector Obligation
(PSO) but assumes full import capability from Europe for both electricity
and gas
Worried yet?
You should be!
The End
31 20/6/2013
What Happens When the Lights go OUT?
Britain’s Onshore Shale Gas
32 20/6/2013
What Happens When the Lights go OUT?
Shale Gas to Add to Global Gas Growth
33 20/6/2013
What Happens When the Lights go OUT?
The UK Production of Primary Fuels 1995-2011
34 20/6/2013
What Happens When the Lights go OUT?
UK Natural Gas Flow Chart 2011 (TWh) – DUKES 2012
35 20/6/2013
What Happens When the Lights go OUT?
UK Electricity Flow Chart 2011 (TWh) – DUKES 2012
36 20/6/2013
What Happens When the Lights go OUT?
UK Electricity Generation by Fuel Type – Changes Within a Year
50%
Increase
In COAL
37 20/6/2013
What Happens When the Lights go OUT?
Production by Region (Coal) in Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (MTOe)
Coal was again the fastest-
growing fossil fuel. Global
production grew by 6.1%.
The Asia Pacific region
accounted for 85% of global
production growth, led by an
8.8% increase in China, the
world’s largest supplier.
38 20/6/2013
What Happens When the Lights go OUT?
Energy and Emissions Projections
These projections are subject to several
sources of uncertainty including forecast error
in demand equations, uncertainty in future
policy impacts and uncertainty in projections
for economic drivers of demand. Analysis of
sensitivity of our projections to uncertainty in
assumptions suggest the true future values
could be more than 5% higher or lower than the
projected values in the long run. However,
despite this uncertainty, the analysis suggests
that the risk of the UK failing to meet its first
three carbon budgets is low.
39 20/6/2013
What Happens When the Lights go OUT?
UK Renewable Energy Roadmap Update 2012
40 20/6/2013
What Happens When the Lights go OUT?
Energy Demand Growth is Matched by Supply (BP)
41 20/6/2013
What Happens When the Lights go OUT?
BP Energy Outlook
42 20/6/2013
What Happens When the Lights go OUT?
Shale Gas Growth Predictions by BP
43 20/6/2013
What Happens When the Lights go OUT?
Shale Gas Brings Self-Sufficiency to North America
44 20/6/2013
What Happens When the Lights go OUT?
BP Predict Non-Fossil Fuel Growth will be Led by Renewable in OECD
45 20/6/2013
What Happens When the Lights go OUT?
Energy Demand Growth Drives Carbon Emissions
46 20/6/2013
What Happens When the Lights go OUT?
Shale Formations Across the UK
47
Making buildings better
What happens when the
lights go out?
Workshop
48
Making buildings better
Two issues
• In the near term Ofgem and others have said that
there is a possibility of electricity brown / black outs
due to capacity issues. What does this mean for the
building services industry?
• Longer term the extensive use of renewables is likely
to result in pricing strategies which reflect the
availability of supply. What does this mean for the
building services industry?
49
Making buildings better
Questions
• How well does the market understand the likelihood
of power cuts & risks / opportunities associated with
ensuring business continuity?
• How well do we understand the measures that end
users can put in place to deal with the situation both
short and longer term?
• Is this an area where BSRIA can provide advice /
guidance to its members and the industry, and if so
what should it produce?