WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED?

DISCLAIMER •   All comments are preliminary •   I am unsure if I believe in everything I will say •   I reserve the right to completely change my mind at some later date

CZO CHALLENGE •   CZOs are great opportunity for Earth Sciences

CZO CHALLENGE •   CZOs are great opportunity for Earth Sciences

•   Why are we doing it?, are we going to make it sustainable and relevant?, can we REALLY integrate it?

CRITICAL ZONE(S) ≅ BIOSPHERE

BIOSPHERE 1

"The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks."

- Dr. Wallace Broecker

BIOSPHERE 2

SEEING BIOSPHERE 1 THROUGH A GLASS DARKLY

Christina River

Shale Hills

Liquillo

Boulder Creek

Santa Catalina

Sierra

TRYING TO SEE THE ELEPHANT

FROM WHITE PAPER: The CZOs will:

1. Develop a unifying theoretical framework of CZ evolution;

2. Develop coupled systems models to explore how CZ services respond to anthropogenic, climatic, and tectonic forcings;

3. Develop data sets that document differing CZ geologic and climatic settings, inform our theoretical framework, constrain our conceptual and coupled systems models, and test model-generated hypotheses.

WHAT?

WHAT ? WHY?

WHAT? WHY? AND HOW?

WHAT? •   a property?

•   a process?

•   a set of processes?

WHAT? •   a property?

•   a process?

•   a set of processes?

- Do we need to be selective about what is important in response to WHY?

WHY? •   Do we want to study how things work, or how to manage and adapt – or both?

WHY •   Do we want to study how things work, or how to manage and adapt – or both?

NRC Climate Report: A NEW ERA OF CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH

Conclusion 2: The nation needs a comprehensive and integrative climate change science

enterprise, one that not only contributes to our fundamental understanding of climate

change but also informs and expands America’s climate choices.

WHY •   Do we want to study how things work, or how to manage and adapt – or both?

NRC Climate Report: A NEW ERA OF CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH

Conclusion 2: The nation needs a comprehensive and integrative climate change science

enterprise, one that not only contributes to our fundamental understanding of climate

change but also informs and expands America’s climate choices.

NSF: SEES (Science, Engineering, and Education for Sustainability) $998M in 2012

WHY •   Do we want to study how things work, or how to manage and adapt – or both?

NRC Climate Report: A NEW ERA OF CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH

Conclusion 2: The nation needs a comprehensive and integrative climate change science

enterprise, one that not only contributes to our fundamental understanding of climate

change but also informs and expands America’s climate choices.

NSF: SEES (Science, Engineering, and Education for Sustainability) $998M in 2012

Science with a “solution” will be receiving more funding, and will be socially acceptable

THE CRITICAL ZONE IN RELATION TO 21ST CENTURY ENVIRONMENT PROBLEMS MAKING OURSELVES RELEVANT (SOME WHAT AND WHY) •   Oil/energyand Climate

- Peak oil -  Renewable fuels/energy -  Complex climate feedbacks to biosphere

•   Food - Peak P, K, etc -  Sustainable soil erosion/production -  Greatly enhanced nutrient recycling (coupling human institutions with land) -  Reduced energy use

•   Biodiversity/Humans -  Peak people -  What do we save, what do we use? -  Critical Zone of urban environments: sustainable/livable cities

THE CRITICAL ZONE IN RELATION TO 21ST CENTURY ENVIRONMENT PROBLEMS MAKING OURSELVES RELEVANT •   Oil and Climate

- Peak oil -  Renewable fuels/energy -  Complex climate feedbacks to biosphere

•   Food - Peak P, K, etc -  Sustainable soil erosion/production -  Greatly enhanced nutrient recycling (coupling human institutions with land) -  Reduced energy use

•   Biodiversity/Humans -  Peak people -  What do we save, what do we use? -  Critical Zone of urban environments: sustainable/livable cities

COMPLEXITY OF PROBLEM

Soil Thickness

Soil Production

Soil Erosion

? - -

Soil Thickness

Soil Production

Soil Erosion

? - -

Animals

- -

Plants

- +

Climate, soil residence time (thickness/prod), lithology, aspect, …

Climate, soil residence time (thickness/prod), lithology, aspect, …

Tecto

nics,

bedr

ock,

clima

te, w

eathe

ring

Tecto

nics,

bedr

ock,

clima

te

THE CRITICAL ZONE IN RELATION TO 21ST CENTURY ENVIRONMENT PROBLEMS MAKING OURSELVES RELEVANT •   Oil and Climate

- Peak oil -  Renewable fuels/energy -  Complex climate feedbacks to biosphere

•   Food - Peak P, K, etc -  Sustainable soil erosion/production -  Greatly enhanced nutrient recycling (coupling human institutions with land) -  Reduced energy use

•   Biodiversity/Humans -  Peak people -  What do we save, what do we use? -  Critical Zone of urban environments: sustainable/livable cities

SOME CZO QUESTIONS •   Is the choice of CZOs largely in upland, forested terrain justified?

- agricultural CZO’s? – more Christina Rivers? - urban CZOs? - more emphasis on humans?

•   What do the existing CZO’s have to do with food, energy, climate, humans, cities, biodiversity? -  economists? -  policy/social science?

•   Is the goal to be a CZO “GCM” or knowledge acquisition for targeted societal good? -  Devote explicit resources to modelers? -  NSF emphasis on sustainability

CZO CONCEPT

THE WORLD

SOME CZO QUESTIONS •   Is the choice of CZOs largely in upland, forested terrain justified?

- agricultural CZO’s? – more Christina Rivers? - urban CZOs? - more emphasis on humans?

•   What do the existing CZO’s have to do with food, energy, climate, humans, cities, biodiversity? -  economists? -  policy/social science? -  non-research science PhD’s?

•   Is the goal to be a CZO “GCM” or knowledge acquisition for targeted societal good? -  Devote explicit resources to modelers?

HOW TO PUT IT TOGETHER? •  

DO WE WANT A CZ “GCM”?

DO WE WANT A CZ “GCM”? – WHERE IS THE NEEDED MODELING?

FROM OUR MEETING •   Should CZO system be “creative anarchy” or top-down science?

FROM OUR MEETING •   Should CZO system be “creative anarchy” or top-down science?

•   Is there some novel middle ground? -  Support the network -  Support risky novel science -  Support a overarching modeling team -  $50K one year awards to non-CZO’s to bring in other data sets

PUTTING IT TOGETHER •   Integration is not easy •   150 to 200 years of modern earth and biological science •   Success of individual fields based on ability to specialize and rapidly advance

•   Difficult both intellectually and logistically to link components together and see emergent properties of nature

PUTTING IT TOGETHER:WHERE WE ARE AT ?

UNDERSTANDING THE BIOSPHERE And now, I said, let me show in a figure how far our nature is enlightened or unenlightened: Behold, human beings living in an underground den…from their childhood…chained so that they can not move and can only see before them. Behind them a fire is burning…and they see only their own shadows, or the shadows of one another, which the fire throws on the opposite wall of the cave…

To them, I said, the truth would be literally nothing but the shadows of images.

You have shown me a strange image, and they are strange prisoners.

UNDERSTANDING THE BIOSPHERE And now, I said, let me show in a figure how far our nature is enlightened or unenlightened: Behold, human beings living in an underground den…from their childhood…chained so that they can not move and can only see before them. Behind them a fire is burning…and they see only their own shadows, or the shadows of one another, which the fire throws on the opposite wall of the cave…

To them, I said, the truth would be literally nothing but the shadows of images.

You have shown me a strange image, and they are strange prisoners.

Like ourselves, I replied.

COMPLEXITY OF PROBLEM

Soil Thickness

Soil Production

-

COMPLEXITY OF PROBLEM

Soil Thickness

Soil Production

Soil Erosion

? - -

Animals

-

COMPLEXITY OF PROBLEM

Soil Thickness

Soil Production

Soil Erosion

? - -

Animals

- -

COMPLEXITY OF PROBLEM

Soil Thickness

Soil Production

Soil Erosion

? - -

Animals

- -

Plants

- +