Disaster in the melting: What is being done to assess and respond to Climate Change Impacts on the Water Regulation function of Paramo and Glacier Systems in the Andes

Current GHG emissions already surpass worst cased IPCC scenario.

Fuente: M. Raupach et al., Global and Regional Drivers of accelerating CO2 Emissions, PNAS, Vol. 104, No. 24, June 12, 2007. 2

C lim ate H o tspo t

D irect effect

Immedi acy

Irreversibility M agn itude o f Physica l Im pacts

E conom ic consequence

C ora l B iom e in the C ar ibbean

B leach ing and mass m orta lity of cora ls

N ow Comp lete T ota l collapse of ecosystem and w ide­ranging ex t inction of a ssocia ted sp ec ies.

Impacts on fis heries, tou rism, increased vu lnerab ility of coasta l areas

M ounta in ecosystem s in the A ndes

W arm ing N ow Comp lete D isappearanc e of g laciers, drying up of m ounta in w etlands, ex t inction of cold ­ clima te endem ic spec ies

Impacts on wa ter and pow er supp ly, d isloca tion o f cu rrent agr icultu re

W etlands in the G ulf of M ex ico

S ubsidence and sa liniza tio n; incr eased exp osure to extr em e w ea ther

T his centu ry

C omp lete D isappearanc e of coasta l w etlands, d isloca tion and ex t inction of loca l and m igra tory spec ies

Impacts on coasta l infras tructure, fis heries and agricu ltu re

Amazon basin

F orest d ieback

T his centu ry

C omp lete D rastic change to the ecosystem lead ing to potent ia l savannah

Impacts on the g loba l wa ter circu la tion pa tterns, impacts on agricu ltu re, wa ter and pow er supp ly a t a continenta l sca le

Climate Hotspots in Latin America

Impacts in the Andes are already evident

4 Source: Vergara (2008) and Francou et al. (2003).

o Glacier covered area in the Tropical Andes has retracted since instrumented measures have been available (1930s).

o The loss of glacier area has potential consequences for water regulation and may affect hydro power generation, and water supply for urban areas and agriculture.

Chacaltaya Glacier (Bolivia): 1940­2008

Evolution of glaciers in the Andes

Figure 3. Cumulative loss in length for selected glaciers in the Andes since 1870

Source: IRD 2007

Dynamics of glacier cover in the central range Of the Colombian Andes (1860­2030)

Source: Bradley , Viuille Diaz and Vergara, 2006

Limited data Limited data

South North

*Promedio de 8 simulations usando escenario A2

Mountain peaks

­160 ­140 ­120 ­100 ­80 ­60

­40

­20

0

20

40

60

GCM­based modeling predict rapid warming of the Andes

Implications of rapid warming in the Andes o Increases evaporation and consequently reduces net discharges

from mountain ecosystems o Contributes to reduction in glacier volume o Moves the altitude of dew points, affecting moisture flows between

atmosphere and soil o Contributes to increase likelihood of mountain fires o Alters conditions for mountain biomes (for example cloud forests)

and flora, contributing to their displacement or disappearance.

What is being done? o Strengthen knowledge base:

n Support efforts to document nature and magnitude of changes (IRD, NOAA, JAXA, IDEAM,IRI,EIA)

n Support modeling of future conditions (MRI, NCAR, PNNL) n Assess implications of these changes in the delivery of

economic and environmental services (water, energy, agriculture, ecosystem integrity)

o Support design and implementation of measures to address the implications

o Support the adoption of adaptation policies and programs n Based on the assessment of economic consequences

Strengthen knowledge base

o Network of glaciology stations in Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia y Colombia, measuring climate and hydrology and linked via satellite

o Remote sensing via the Advanced Landscape Observation Satellite (ALOS) of ice cover

o Photo­grametry and radar measurements for ice thickness

o Measure carbon and water flows in Paramo ecosystems

o Document changing environmental conditions in Paramo

Support modeling of future conditions o Application of Earth Simulator

to model future climate in the Andes

o Ensemble experiments with GCMs to strengthen results of modeling runs

o Model impacts of climate in future hydrology through application of water management models modified to include paramo and glacier objects

Adaptation to Glacier Retreat in the Tropical Andes: Bolivia, Ecuador & Peru (in operation since May 2008)

o Investments of the order of US$35 million to address loss of services caused by glacier retreat. Eight pilot measures: n Increase share on non­glacier affected

watersheds in water supply for Quito (Ecuador) to compensate for retreat of Antizana

n Create water storage capacity to compensate for losses from Tuni­ Condoriri system in Bolivia.

n Develop resilient rural water supply and storage systems in the Altiplano area of Bolivia

n Adapt agricultural practices in the area of influence of the Huaytapallana glacier in Peru.

n Strengthen readiness and response to Glacier Outbursts in Peru

Colombia: Integrated National Adaptation Program (in operation since July 2006)

o Promote adaptation measures to climate impacts in n Paramo Ecosystem n Insular Areas n Healtn System

Adaptation to Climate Impacts in Paramo Ecosystems in Colombia (as part of INAP project)

(iii) Strengthen capacity to prevent and respond to mountain fires. (iv) Eliminate mining activities.

(ii) Strengthen land management and enforcement plans to reduce anthropogenic impacts that may increase fragility to climate impacts. Involve local community in management and conservation activities.

(i) Restore and conserve natural ground cover in upper watersheds in Paramo ecosystems (Chingaza Paramo).

Reducción de los impactos adversos sobre la regulación hídrica en la cuenca del río Amoyá

Actividades Medida de adaptación

Final remarks o The climate induced changes in water cycles in the Andes will be

pervasive, and irreversible, requiring immediate adaptation actions o The Bank has a three pronge role in addressing the implications of

these climate impacts n Support efforts to better understand the problem and the

implications as a necessary input to policy making n Support investments in adaptation that can illustrate the costs

and benefits of alternative approaches n Support the adoption of policies that promote conservation of

affected ecosystems and adaptation to future conditions