What is California Cleaner-Burning GasolineWhat is California Cleaner-Burning Gasoline and and

Why is Flexibility Required in California?Why is Flexibility Required in California?

March 1999March 1999

California Environmental Protection AgencyCalifornia Environmental Protection Agency

Air Resources BoardAir Resources Board

OverviewOverview

History of California’s vehicle fuels programHistory of California’s vehicle fuels program California’s Cleaner-Burning Gasoline California’s Cleaner-Burning Gasoline

programprogram Recent activitiesRecent activities Summary and conclusionSummary and conclusion Future activitiesFuture activities

History of California’s Vehicle History of California’s Vehicle Fuels ProgramFuels Program

California Legislative RequirementsCalifornia Legislative Requirementsfor Mobile Sourcesfor Mobile Sources

Achieve maximum feasible reductions in PM, Achieve maximum feasible reductions in PM, CO, and toxic air contaminantsCO, and toxic air contaminants

Achieve maximum emission reductions of Achieve maximum emission reductions of VOC and NOx by earliest practicable dateVOC and NOx by earliest practicable date

Adopt most effective combination of control Adopt most effective combination of control measures on all classes of motor vehicles and measures on all classes of motor vehicles and their fuelstheir fuels

Motor Vehicle Fuels Control Motor Vehicle Fuels Control StrategyStrategy

Treat vehicles / fuels as a systemTreat vehicles / fuels as a system– Vehicle emission standardsVehicle emission standards– Fuel standardsFuel standards– Include lubricantsInclude lubricants

FlexibleFlexible

California’s Gasoline ProgramsCalifornia’s Gasoline Programs

YearYearAdoptedAdopted Gasoline Related ProgramsGasoline Related Programs ActionAction19711971 Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP)Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) Limit RVP to 9 psi in smog seasonLimit RVP to 9 psi in smog season

Bromine NumberBromine Number Limit reactivity of evaporative emissionsLimit reactivity of evaporative emissions19751975 SulfurSulfur Protect catalystsProtect catalysts

Manganese/PhosphorusManganese/Phosphorus19761976 LeadLead Begin phase-out of leadBegin phase-out of lead19821982 LeadLead Continue lead phase-outContinue lead phase-out19901990 Phase 1 CaRFGPhase 1 CaRFG -- Reid Vapor PressureReid Vapor Pressure Limit RVP to 7.8 psi in smog seasonLimit RVP to 7.8 psi in smog season -- Lead Phase-OutLead Phase-Out Lead completely phased-outLead completely phased-out -- Deposit Control AdditivesDeposit Control Additives Prevent/remove deposits in fuel systemPrevent/remove deposits in fuel system19911991 Phase 2 CaRFGPhase 2 CaRFG Cleaner Burning GasolineCleaner Burning Gasoline Wintertime OxygenatesWintertime Oxygenates Required 2% oxygen in winterRequired 2% oxygen in winter19941994 Phase 2 CaRFG Predictive ModelPhase 2 CaRFG Predictive Model Provides flexibility and lower costsProvides flexibility and lower costs19981998 Deposit Control AdditivesDeposit Control Additives Prevent combustion chamber depositsPrevent combustion chamber deposits

Source: ARB/SSDSource: ARB/SSD

California Cleaner-Burning California Cleaner-Burning Gasoline ProgramGasoline Program

California Cleaner-Burning California Cleaner-Burning Gasoline ProgramGasoline Program

Emissions performance based fuel parameter Emissions performance based fuel parameter limits, not on general emissions criteria limits, not on general emissions criteria

Limits on the following parameters:Limits on the following parameters:RVP*RVP* SulfurSulfurT50T50 BenzeneBenzeneT90T90 Aromatic HydrocarbonsAromatic HydrocarbonsOlefinsOlefins Oxygen ContentOxygen Content

* Only the summer RVP limit is fixed, at 7.0 psi * Only the summer RVP limit is fixed, at 7.0 psi

Emissions Response to Fuel Emissions Response to Fuel Parameter Changes*Parameter Changes*

RVP - Reduces evaporative VOC’sRVP - Reduces evaporative VOC’s Sulfur - Reduces VOC’s, NOx, sulfur oxides, Sulfur - Reduces VOC’s, NOx, sulfur oxides,

toxics (improves catalyst effectiveness)toxics (improves catalyst effectiveness) Benzene - Reduces toxicsBenzene - Reduces toxics

* Assumes holding other parameters constant and reduce subject * Assumes holding other parameters constant and reduce subject parameter.parameter.

Emissions Response to Fuel Emissions Response to Fuel Parameter Changes Parameter Changes (continued)(continued)

Aromatic Hydrocarbon - Reduces VOC’s, NOx, Aromatic Hydrocarbon - Reduces VOC’s, NOx, toxicstoxics

Olefin - Reduces NOx, toxics, slight increase in Olefin - Reduces NOx, toxics, slight increase in VOC’sVOC’s

Oxygen - Reduces CO, VOC’s, and toxics; increases Oxygen - Reduces CO, VOC’s, and toxics; increases NOx NOx

T50 & T90 - Reduces VOC’s, toxics, slight NOx T50 & T90 - Reduces VOC’s, toxics, slight NOx increaseincrease

* Assumes holding other parameters constant and reduce subject * Assumes holding other parameters constant and reduce subject parameter.parameter.

Flexibility is Part of Cleaner-Flexibility is Part of Cleaner-Burning Gasoline ProgramBurning Gasoline Program

RVP, psiRVP, psi 7.87.8 7.07.0 - - 7.07.0Sulfur, ppmwSulfur, ppmw 150150 4040 3030 8080Aromatic HC, vol%Aromatic HC, vol% 3232 2525 2222 3030Benzene, vol%Benzene, vol% 2.02.0 1.01.0 0.80.8 1.21.2Olefins, vol%Olefins, vol% 9.99.9 6.06.0 4.04.0 10.010.0Oxygen, wt%Oxygen, wt% 00 1.8-2.21.8-2.2 -- -- 1.8*-2.71.8*-2.7T90, deg FT90, deg F 330330 300300 290**290** 330330T50, deg FT50, deg F 220220 210210 200200 220220

Flat LimitFlat LimitStandardStandard

AverageAverageStandardStandard

Cap for AllCap for AllGasolineGasoline

* Wintertime only**. Refinery cap = 310 deg F

Typical BeforeTypical BeforeCBGCBG

Predictive ModelPredictive Model

Used for a majority of gasoline producedUsed for a majority of gasoline produced Provides alternative means of compliance Provides alternative means of compliance

through a statistical modelthrough a statistical model Increases gasoline producer’s flexibilityIncreases gasoline producer’s flexibility Reduces compliance costs / improves Reduces compliance costs / improves

production capabilityproduction capability

Why Flexibility is AllowedWhy Flexibility is Allowed

Reduced capital expenditure by refiners by about Reduced capital expenditure by refiners by about 20%20%

Allows refiners to adjust to unexpected events Allows refiners to adjust to unexpected events without interruptionswithout interruptions

Minimizes production costs and increases Minimizes production costs and increases suppliessupplies

No loss in emissions benefitsNo loss in emissions benefits– On average produces a modest decrease in emissionsOn average produces a modest decrease in emissions

Emission ReductionsEmission Reductions11 from from Cleaner-Burning GasolineCleaner-Burning Gasoline

PercentPercent TPDTPDVolatile OrganicVolatile OrganicCompounds (VOC)Compounds (VOC) 17%17% 190190Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx)Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) 11%11% 110110Sulfur Dioxide (SO2)Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) 80%80% 3030Carbon Monoxide (CO)Carbon Monoxide (CO) 11%11% 13001300Toxic Compounds RiskToxic Compounds Risk 40%40%

1. Based on on-road exhaust and evaporative emissions in 19961. Based on on-road exhaust and evaporative emissions in 1996

PercentPercent TPDTPDVolatile OrganicVolatile OrganicCompounds (VOC)Compounds (VOC) 17%17% 190190Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx)Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) 11%11% 110110Sulfur Dioxide (SO2)Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) 80%80% 3030Carbon Monoxide (CO)Carbon Monoxide (CO) 11%11% 13001300Toxic Compounds RiskToxic Compounds Risk 40%40%

1. Based on on-road exhaust and evaporative emissions in 19961. Based on on-road exhaust and evaporative emissions in 1996

Emissions Reductions Emissions Reductions ComparisonComparison

PollutantPollutant Federal RFGFederal RFG California RFGCalifornia RFGPhase I (1995)Phase I (1995) Phase II (2000)Phase II (2000) (1996)(1996)

VOCVOC 9%9% 15%15% 17%17%

NOxNOx 4%4% 4%4% 11%11%

COCO 11%11% 11%11% 11%11%

SO2SO2 0%0% 0%0% 80%80%

Cancer RiskCancer Risk 30%30% 40%40% 40%40%

Benefits of Cleaner-Burning Benefits of Cleaner-Burning GasolineGasoline

Emission reductions equivalent to removing Emission reductions equivalent to removing 3.5 million vehicles from California roads3.5 million vehicles from California roads

Reduces smog forming emissions from motor Reduces smog forming emissions from motor vehicles by 15%vehicles by 15%

Reduces potential cancer risk from vehicle Reduces potential cancer risk from vehicle emissions by 40%emissions by 40%

1/4 of SIP reductions in 19961/4 of SIP reductions in 1996 Reduces benzene emissions by halfReduces benzene emissions by half

Other BenefitsOther Benefits

Reduces combustion chamber depositsReduces combustion chamber deposits Allows vehicle manufacturers to improve Allows vehicle manufacturers to improve

engine technology to reduce emissions furtherengine technology to reduce emissions further

Air Quality BenefitsAir Quality Benefits

Ambient benzene emissions cut in halfAmbient benzene emissions cut in half– Northern California Northern California (Spring 1995 to Spring 1996)(Spring 1995 to Spring 1996)

– Southern California Southern California (Spring 1994 to Spring 1996)(Spring 1994 to Spring 1996)

Significant ozone reductions due to Significant ozone reductions due to Cleaner-Burning Gasoline Cleaner-Burning Gasoline – South Coast Air Basin (10%)South Coast Air Basin (10%)– Sacramento (12%)Sacramento (12%)

Reduced formation of fine particlesReduced formation of fine particles

Oxygen RequirementsOxygen Requirementsin Californiain California

California’s rules are flexible, can be met California’s rules are flexible, can be met without oxygen, except in winter in some areaswithout oxygen, except in winter in some areas

California now allows all oxygenates approved California now allows all oxygenates approved by U.S. EPAby U.S. EPA

All oxygenates are regulated equally, refiners All oxygenates are regulated equally, refiners choose the oxygenates, if anychoose the oxygenates, if any

Federal minimum oxygen content prevents use Federal minimum oxygen content prevents use of flexibility in most of stateof flexibility in most of state

Federal Minimum Oxygen Content Federal Minimum Oxygen Content Applies to Federal RFG AreasApplies to Federal RFG Areas

Affects about 70%of gasoline sold in California

Why Oxygenates Are UsedWhy Oxygenates Are Used

Required by CongressRequired by Congress Current refiners configured to take advantage of Current refiners configured to take advantage of

oxygenates, specifically MTBEoxygenates, specifically MTBE Provide octane benefitsProvide octane benefits Expand production volumeExpand production volume Assist in producing complying gasolineAssist in producing complying gasoline

– Depress TDepress T5050

– Lowers sulfur, aromatics, benzene and olefinsLowers sulfur, aromatics, benzene and olefins

Emissions Effects of 2% OxygenEmissions Effects of 2% Oxygenin Gasolinein Gasoline

10% CO reduction10% CO reduction 3% HC reduction3% HC reduction 2% NOx increase2% NOx increase Dilutes other properties such as sulfur, olefins, Dilutes other properties such as sulfur, olefins,

aromatics, and T50aromatics, and T50 However, with the exception of CO, all of However, with the exception of CO, all of

these effects can be accomplished by forgoing these effects can be accomplished by forgoing oxygenates and modifying other propertiesoxygenates and modifying other properties

To Replace Oxygen and Maintain To Replace Oxygen and Maintain Ozone and Toxic Reduction RequiresOzone and Toxic Reduction Requires

Minor increase in refining to reduce sulfur, Minor increase in refining to reduce sulfur, olefins, etc. to offset dilution effectolefins, etc. to offset dilution effect

Further reduction in sulfur (~20 ppm) and T50 Further reduction in sulfur (~20 ppm) and T50 (~5(~5C) to offset HC increaseC) to offset HC increase

Why Flexibility from Federal Oxygen Why Flexibility from Federal Oxygen Mandate is Needed and AppropriateMandate is Needed and Appropriate

Oxygen not essential to provide air quality Oxygen not essential to provide air quality benefitsbenefits

California’s Cleaner Burning Gasoline California’s Cleaner Burning Gasoline provides necessary emissions benefitsprovides necessary emissions benefits

Reduced flexibility increases costsReduced flexibility increases costs Oxygen mandate makes it difficult to reduce Oxygen mandate makes it difficult to reduce

MTBE use; ethanol is effectively the only MTBE use; ethanol is effectively the only alternativealternative

Recent ActivitiesRecent Activities

Winter Oxygen Rescission Winter Oxygen Rescission

Recently rescinded minimum oxygen Recently rescinded minimum oxygen requirement except for South Coast area (Los requirement except for South Coast area (Los Angeles region)Angeles region)– Required a two-year delay in Fresno and Tahoe, to Required a two-year delay in Fresno and Tahoe, to

protect state CO standard protect state CO standard (Ends February 2000)(Ends February 2000)

As a result refiners are free under California rules to As a result refiners are free under California rules to produce oxygenate free gasoline in most of Californiaproduce oxygenate free gasoline in most of California

Ability to Use EthanolAbility to Use Ethanol Recently increased maximum oxygen cap statewide to 3.5 wtRecently increased maximum oxygen cap statewide to 3.5 wt

%%– Allows use of 10% ethanol, provided fuel complies with predictive Allows use of 10% ethanol, provided fuel complies with predictive

model requirementsmodel requirements Determined ethanol blends should not be exempt from RVP Determined ethanol blends should not be exempt from RVP

requirementsrequirements– ARB made finding that ozone-forming potential would increase if ARB made finding that ozone-forming potential would increase if

gasoline with 10% ethanol were exempt from RVP limitsgasoline with 10% ethanol were exempt from RVP limits– All fuels must meet 7.0 psi RVP standardAll fuels must meet 7.0 psi RVP standard

Percent Change in Emissions for 10% Percent Change in Emissions for 10% Ethanol Blend with 1 psi RVP increase Ethanol Blend with 1 psi RVP increase

Compared to Complying Fuel*Compared to Complying Fuel* RL Diff. IncludedRL Diff. Included Likelihood (E>C)Likelihood (E>C)

COCO -10%-10% 0%0%

NOxNOx 14%14% 99%99%

THCTHC 18% 18% >99% >99%

NMOGNMOG 32% 32% >99% >99%

OFPOFP 21%21% >99%>99%

OFPCO OFPCO 17% >99%17% >99%

TOX TOX 13% >99% 13% >99%

TOXPWTOXPW 5%5% 92%92%

* Positive number indicates an increase in emissions for 10% ethanol blend with a one psi RVP increase

FindingsFindings Test program meets the criteria specified in HSC section Test program meets the criteria specified in HSC section

43830(g)43830(g)

– Independently verifiable automobile emission test dataIndependently verifiable automobile emission test data

– Representative automobile fleetRepresentative automobile fleet Test program results demonstrate that gasoline containing Test program results demonstrate that gasoline containing

10% ethanol with a 1 psi RVP increase results in 10% ethanol with a 1 psi RVP increase results in increased ozone forming potential in comparison to increased ozone forming potential in comparison to complying gasolinecomplying gasoline

Test program results are statistically significant with a Test program results are statistically significant with a high degree of certainty (>90%)high degree of certainty (>90%)

Findings Findings (Continued)(Continued)

Test program results are consistent with the findings of Test program results are consistent with the findings of previous test programs that evaluate the effect of fuel previous test programs that evaluate the effect of fuel oxygen and RVP on motor vehicle emissionsoxygen and RVP on motor vehicle emissions

Test program results are consistent with modeling results Test program results are consistent with modeling results using the US EPA complex modelusing the US EPA complex model

Independent peer review supports staff’s evaluationIndependent peer review supports staff’s evaluation ConclusionConclusion

– 10% ethanol did not qualify for full RVP waiver10% ethanol did not qualify for full RVP waiver

Future Activities / Conclusion Future Activities / Conclusion

Future ActivitiesFuture Activities

Update predictive modelUpdate predictive model– Add new vehicle technology groupAdd new vehicle technology group– Develop evaporative emissions modelDevelop evaporative emissions model– Evaluate changes to specifications, including Evaluate changes to specifications, including

sulfursulfur– Other work as appropriateOther work as appropriate

ConclusionsConclusions Cleaner-Burning Gasoline provides significant and Cleaner-Burning Gasoline provides significant and

essential air quality benefitsessential air quality benefits California is neutral as to type of oxygenateCalifornia is neutral as to type of oxygenate California is flexible on amounts of oxygenateCalifornia is flexible on amounts of oxygenate Congressional mandate imposes oxygen Congressional mandate imposes oxygen

requirements in Californiarequirements in California Flexibility to reduce use of oxygenates while Flexibility to reduce use of oxygenates while

maintaining benefits are limited without relief from maintaining benefits are limited without relief from federal mandate federal mandate