What they dont teach you at Lean and Six Sigma School Bill Hooper Elkay Manufacturing President, William Hooper Consulting Inc. ASQ CSSMBB, CSSBB, CRE, CQE, CMQ So what do they teach you in LSS school Computer generated analysis and design A language only a few can understand Statistics! Statistics! Statistics! 4-6 months to get results 30 days for the rebound Fractional Factorial Design Factors: 8 Resolution: IV Runs: 67 Replicates: 2 Fraction: 1/8 Blocks: 1 Center pts (total): 3 Design Generators: F = ABC, G = ABD, H = BCDE How many understand the following? Dr. George Boxs analysis What is typically needed Typical LSS courses teach to What if we taught statistical based process improvement to the 95% that need it and dont get it? The real Customer Un-geeking the teaching process Hypothesis theory Gauge R and R Probability theory Capability Analysis Design of Experiments Hypothesis Theory Un-Geeking What is an Alpha error? What is a Beta error? Rejection of the null hypothesis when the null hypothesis is true. Failure to reject the null hypothesis when the null hypothesis is false. What the jury found He did it guilty Not guilty He did not do it What really happened Alpha vs. Beta Errors Alpha ErrorBeta Error Power Reduction in Variation Probability Theory Multiplication principle P(A and B) = P(A) X P(B/A) Ugly! .but what if this could be explained by card magic? Probability of a pair of kings P(K and K) = P(first King) x P(second King given the first King) =.5 % or 5 out of a thousand and on a control chart So what to do with the process? Nothing! Probability of drawing three kings P(K and K) = P(first King) x P(second King given the first King) x P(third King given the first two) =.02% or 2 out of a 10,000 and on a control chart .. And what should happen? What if that was process flowed? Person chosen at random Random deck Split the cards in the middle Right or left hand (50/50). Shuffled the cards four ways. Made four piles Handed card out to audience Audience turns over cards one at a time What if that was probability plotted by group exercise? Probability of drawing four kings P(K-K-K-K) = P(first King) x P(second King given the first King) x P(third King given the first two) x P(fourth given the first three) = or 3.6 PPM and on a control chart What is easier to learn P(K-K-K-K) = P(first King) x P(second King given the first King) x P(third King given the first two) x P(fourth given the first three) = or 3.6 PPM or Design of Experiments What if we could all learn the basics of a 2 level 3 factor DOE? What if interaction effect was understood by everyone? Reverse hand experiment (or the solution may not be obvious and it may hurt) A very simple but effective DOE Bowl wrinkle Bowl Break Breaks Bowl Wrinkle Deck Wrinkles Possible sweet spot The basics of a 2 level 3 factor DOE Additional runs to define sweet spot and it does work So one more time the reverse hand experiment Probability theory/Capability AnalysisProbability Theory Hypothesis/Design of Experiments Hypothesis/Probability Theory How to make it work how to make it stick Finally Probability of you beating my 4 kings : or.5 PPM Bill Hooper Principle Engineer, Elkay Manufacturing President, William Hooper Consulting Inc. Visit his website atTo learn more about innovative techniques to teach statistics and process improvement methodology.