What they don’t teach you at Lean

and Six Sigma School

Bill HooperElkay ManufacturingPresident, William Hooper Consulting Inc. ASQ CSSMBB, CSSBB, CRE, CQE, CMQ

So what do they teach you in LSS school

Computer generated analysis and design

A language only a few can understand

Statistics! Statistics! Statistics!

4-6 months to get results

30 days for the rebound

Fractional Factorial Design

Factors: 8 Resolution: IVRuns: 67 Replicates: 2 Fraction:

1/8Blocks: 1 Center

pts (total): 3

Design Generators: F = ABC, G = ABD, H = BCDE

How many understand the following?

Dr. George Box’s analysis

What is typically needed

Typical LSS courses teach

to

What if we taught statistical based process improvement to the 95% that need it and

don’t get it?

The real Customer

Un-geeking the teaching process

Hypothesis theory

Gauge R and R

Probability theory

Capability Analysis

Design of Experiments

Hypothesis Theory – Un-Geeking

What is an Alpha error?

What is a Beta error?

Rejection of the null hypothesis when the null hypothesis is true.

Failure to reject the null hypothesis when the null hypothesis is false.

What the jury found

He did it

guilty Not guilty

He did not do it

What really

happened

Alpha vs. Beta Errors

Alpha ErrorBeta Error

Power

Reduction in Variation

Probability Theory – Multiplication principle

P(A and B) = P(A) X P(B/A)

Ugly!

….but what if this could be explained by card magic?

Probability of a pair of kings

P(K and K) = P(first King) x P(second King given the first King) =

.5 % or 5 out of a thousand

… and on a control chart

So what to do with the process?

Nothing!

Probability of drawing three kings

P(K and K) = P(first King) x P(second King given the first King) x P(third King given the

first two)

= .02% or 2 out of a 10,000

… and on a control chart

….. And what should happen?

What if that was process flowed?

What if that was probability plotted by group exercise?

Probability of drawing four kings

P(K-K-K-K) = P(first King) x P(second King given the first King) x P(third King given the first two) x P(fourth given the first three)

= .0000036 or 3.6 PPM

… and on a control chart

What is easier to learnP(K-K-K-K) = P(first King) x P(second King given the first King) x P(third King

given the first two) x P(fourth given the first three)= .0000036 or 3.6 PPM

or

Design of Experiments

What if we could all learn the basics of a 2 level – 3 factor DOE?

What if interaction effect was understood by everyone?

Reverse hand experiment

(or the solution may not be obvious and it may hurt)

A very simple but effective DOEBowl

wrinkle

Bowl Break

Breaks

Bowl Wrinkle

Deck Wrinkles

Possible sweet spot

The basics of a 2 level – 3 factor DOE

Additional runs to define sweet spot

…and it does work

So one more time – the reverse hand experiment

Probability theory/Capability Analysis

Probability Theory

Hypothesis/Design of Experiments

Hypothesis/Probability Theory

How to make it work – how to make it stick

Finally

Probability of you beating my 4 kings :

.0000005 or .5 PPM

Bill Hooper

Principle Engineer, Elkay Manufacturing

President, William Hooper Consulting Inc.

Visit his website at

www.williamhooperconsulting.org

To learn more about innovative techniques to teach statistics and process improvement

methodology.