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What Triggers the Use of the ECI? The Role of Benefits, Values and Efficacy Anna Kandyla Department of Political and Social Sciences European University Institute Florence [email protected] Sergiu Gherghina Department of Political Science Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität Frankfurt [email protected] Please do not cite! Abstract The European Citizens’ Initiative (ECI) aspires to encourage citizens to participate in European Union (EU) policy-making processes. Yet, only isolated studies have examined the factors that shape the likelihood of using the ECI from the perspective of the citizens. Literature on political participation indicates that both utilitarian and value-based considerations related to democratic norms drive political activity. This study discusses the applicability of these theories to the case of the ECI and additionally considers the role of external and internal political efficacy in motivating its use by citizens. The paper develops a model that identifies value-based considerations, personal benefits from EU membership and political efficacy as key determinants of the willingness to use the ECI. The model is tested with survey data from two Eurobarometer waves for all Member States. Results indicate a strong tendency of EU citizens to be driven by interests in using the ECI and confirm that perceptions of efficacy motivate participation. Paper prepared for the 2016 ECPR General Conference Prague, 7-11 September 2016

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Page 1: What Triggers the use of the ECI? The Role of Benefits, Values and Efficacy · 2016-09-07 · 2. Citizen participation in the ECI: the motivating role of benefits, values and efficacy

What Triggers the Use of the ECI?

The Role of Benefits, Values and Efficacy

Anna Kandyla Department of Political and Social Sciences

European University Institute Florence [email protected]

Sergiu Gherghina

Department of Political Science Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität Frankfurt

[email protected]

Please do not cite!

Abstract The European Citizens’ Initiative (ECI) aspires to encourage cit izens to participate in European Union (EU) policy-making processes. Yet, only isolated studies have examined the factors that shape the likelihood of using the ECI from the perspective of the citizens. Literature on political participation indicates that both utilitarian and value-based considerations related to democratic norms drive political activity. This study discusses the applicability of these theories to the case of the ECI and additionally considers the role of external and internal political efficacy in motivating its use by citizens. The paper develops a model that identifies value-based considerations, personal benefits from EU membership and political efficacy as key determinants of the willingness to use the ECI. The model is tested with survey data from two Eurobarometer waves for all Member States. Results indicate a strong tendency of EU citizens to be driven by interests in using the ECI and confirm that perceptions of efficacy motivate participation.

Paper prepared for the 2016 ECPR General Conference

Prague, 7-11 September 2016

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1. Introduction

The potential of instruments for direct citizen participation in European Union (EU) policy-

making processes lies at the core of debates on democratizing the Union (Beck & Grande,

2007; Conrad, 2011; Meny, 2003). One of the ideas put forward in this respect was to give

European citizens the right of legislative initiative. In 2009, with the entry into force of the

Treaty of Lisbon, the European Citizens’ Initiative (ECI) was established, creating for the first

time an instrument for citizens of the Member States (MS) to request the European

Commission (EC) to introduce a legislative proposal on an issue on matters under the

competence of the EU.

The ECI is an agenda-setting instrument with no binding effect. From an institutional

perspective, however, it is important since it endorses officially a form of direct citizen

participation at the EU level beyond the representative channel. Originating in demands for

democratizing the EU through bottom-up citizen involvement (Kaufmann, 2012, pp. 229–

237), expectations that the ECI has the potential to motivate and enhance citizen

participation in policy-making have been voiced by politicians, commentators and academics

(Conrad, 2011; Knaut & Keller, 2012; Monaghan, 2012). Crucially, although scholarly interest

in the ECI is vivid, little is known about who is likely to use the ECI and why. This study

contributes to these debates by examining what motivates citizens to use the ECI.

The extant individual-level research on the ECI indicates that positive views of the

EU and its institutions are associated with the intention to use this instrument (Kentmen-Cin

2014). In this study, we extend these findings by examining the role played by evaluations of

the EU in terms of benefits and values in motivating participation. Earlier studies indicate

that evaluations of the costs and benefit of EU membership tend to encourage participation

in European Parliament (EP) elections. This study adds further evidence as to the importance

of such utilitarian considerations in driving participation in non-electoral EU-level political

processes such as the ECI. At the same time, value-based approaches contend that political

values matter for political participation and, crucially, also impact the way that citizens

engage politically. We, thus, compare the impact of utilitarian considerations to that of

assessments of the EU in terms of values on the likelihood of using the ECI. In addition to

these two determinants, we examine the influence of what scholarship has identified as a

key driver of engagement in political action: sense of political efficacy. To test these effects,

our analysis relies on survey data from all EU Member States from two relatively recent

Eurobarometer surveys (May 2012 and November 2013).

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The paper is organized as follows. The following section discusses the ECI as a form

of citizen participation in EU politics and presents the arguments and hypotheses. Next we

present the variable operationalization and data sources. The results of bivariate analyses

and multivariate ordinal logistic regression models are presented in the fourth section,

whereas the final section summarizes the main findings and discusses the major implication

of this analysis.

2. Citizen participation in the ECI: the motivating role of benefits, values and efficacy

Political participation in EU-level political processes has been mainly associated with voting

in European Parliament (EP) elections. The ECI represents an additional to the EP elections

possibility for participation. It falls under the broader category of citizens’ initiatives, a

bottom-up type of direct democracy that presupposes an initiative coming from individuals,

interest groups, or organizations (Beramendi et al. 2008; Schiller and Setälä 2012) . Such

instruments entail the right to propose new laws or the modification of laws, allowing

citizens to get involved in the legislative process. ECIs supported by at least one million

signatures in at least one quarter of the Member States have the potential to place an issue

on the political agenda and culminate in legislation.

The opening of the political action repertoire of EU citizens brought about by the

introduction of the ECI crucially entails the question of the factors that motivate

participation. Participation can take the form of initiating a citizen initiative or supporting an

existing initiative. As to the latter, citizens can be, of course, expected to support an

initiative only if they favor the particular cause it pursues, and different issues may be of

interest to different groups of citizens. The character, nonetheless, of this instrument can

also be expected to determine its appeal. A non-electoral form of participation, with a

bottom up dimension, the ECI may be of interest to those who seek new forms to signal

political preferences to EU decision-makers or to express criticism against policies made at

the European level. In fact, analyses of the topics of ECI campaigns suggest that the ECI has

been used to both these ends (Bouza Garcia and Greenwood 2014).

At the same time, the ECI falls under the category of institutionalized forms of

participation (see Barnes and Kaase 1979) since it was formally established by the EU

political elite and it embedded in a legal institutional framework. The ECI’s institutionalized

character perhaps explains why, previous research on the public intentions to use this

instrument finds that people’s views of the EU’s political processes matter (Kentmen-Cin

2014). In the only - to our knowledge - published research on the subject, Kentmen-Cin

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(2014) tested the political dissatisfaction thesis on the ECI. Contrary to the thesis’

predictions, her findings suggest that trust in the EU’s institutions and positive evaluations of

the EU’s political system in terms of democratic credentials prompt interest in using the ECI.

We extend this finding by considering the role that evaluations of the EU in terms of

utilitarian considerations and values play in motivating interest in using the ECI.

Utilitarian considerations

Utilitarian explanations that presume instrumental rationality occupy a central space in the

literature on political participation. Derived, explicitly or implicitly, from rational choice

models such explanations suggest that individuals participate in politics when they perceive

that the expected benefits exceed the costs involved. For the most part, the relevant

literature focuses on the question of the “paradox of participation” and seeks to identify the

factors that incentivize political activity and those that increase the costs of participation.

Research, for instance, finds that negative evaluations of the economy and personal

hardships increase the opportunity costs of participation and depress turnout (Rosenstone

1982; Rosenstone and Hansen 1993; Brody and Sniderman 1997).

It is also recognized that utilitarian considerations matter for political participation

aimed at EU level political processes. With voting in EP elections being the principal form of

participation in this realm, research has associated perceptions of gains from the European

project with turnout. Studies, for instance, indicate that benefits from EU membership are

linked to aggregate level turnout (Stockemer 2012; Mattila 2003; Flickinger and Studlar

2007). Moreover, considering that economic growth within a common market is one of the

principal aims of the EU, scholars find that actual and perceived economic benefits of

integration drive participation (Mattila 2003; Studlar, Flickinger, and Bennett 2003). A similar

logic seems to explain why citizens from certain socio-demographic groups participate more

in EP elections. More specifically, studies show that participation tends to be signifi cantly

higher for groups that have on average benefited economically by being part of the

European integration project, such as the better educated and those in higher occupational

status (Wessels and Franklin 2009; Blondel, Sinnott, and Svensson 1997, 199–235). Overall,

although the EP may not have been, at least until fairly recently, a powe rful institution in

terms of policy making, it forms part of the EU’s institutional architecture. As such,

participation in EP elections is driven by the desire to lend support to European project so as

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to continue to enjoy the benefits associated with it.1 It is hardly surprising, therefore, that

the extant research on demonstrations and protests targeted at EU level politics, finds that

these are mobilized by objection to and concerns over the socio-economic implications of

integration (Uba and Uggla 2011; Imig and Tarrow 2001).

Taking stock of the above, and taking into account the institutionalized nature of the

ECI elaborated earlier, we expect that similarly to participation in EP elections, participation

in the ECI is motivated by perceptions of actual gains from EU membership. Individual who

have personally benefited by opportunities created by European integration will be more

likely to participate in this formal instrument, thereby expressing their support to the

integration project to continue to enjoy the benefits provided. Individuals, who, on the other

hand, do not see any advantages from EU integration, would be more likely to have no

interest in using the ECI. Based on these considerations, we expect that:

H1: Individuals who have experienced benefits from EU integration are more likely to use the ECI.

Value-based assessments

We also argue that value-based assessments of the EU may have an impact on the intention

to use the ECI. The literature on Europeanization combined with that on value change in

advanced industrial societies (Inglehart 1977; 1981; 1997) provides the main theoretical

impetus for this investigation.

First, Europeanization refers to the diffusion of norms and values from the EU level

to national states. One way to explain the alignment with EU requirements has to do with a

process of social learning in which the actors involved are motivated by identities, values or

norms (Finnemore and Sikkink 1998; Börzel and Risse 2003; Schimmelfennig et al. 2003;

Vachudova 2005). In this sense, Europeanization is about the construction of identity at both

the elite (as decision-makers) and mass level. In recent decades, especially with the recent

enlargements, the normative content of Europeanization is based on human rights and

democracy. For example, it has been shown that in candidate countries the mechanism

worked as follows: elites had the task to implement the EU supervisory framework to

establish democratic institutions (and the rule of law) that protect human rights, while

citizens gradually acknowledged democracy as a European value. The broad acceptance of

democratic values in societies has been both at the core of the rule adoption in candidate

1 Anyhow, evidence, indicates that the association between actual or perceived economic benefits of

integration and general support for the EU is strong (Anderson and Reichert 1995; Gabel and Whitten 1997).

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countries (Schimmelfennig and Sedelmeier 2005) and the driver behind the acceptance of

new institutional changes (Gherghina 2010). Research indicates that the extent to which

citizens embrace the value of the rule of law increases the likelihood of accepting the

external (EU) promotion of institutional change and the EU as a political system that could

compensate for the flawed national institutions, in general (Gherghina 2010). When the EU

is associated with values related to democracy promotion and maintenance (e.g. rule of law,

equality), citizens may perceive it as a legitimate political system that functions according to

democratic rules and that can be improved by following democratic means (through political

participation).

Second, according to Inglehart’s theory, post-materialist values are directed to the

fulfillment of a person's intellectual needs, their need for independence and self -

actualization. They concern priorities related to individual improvement, personal freedom,

human rights and solidarity, among others. These were contrasted with material values

which prioritize economic needs, safety and “law and order”. Linked to concerns with

democracy, a desire for political change and for more opportunities to participate in politics,

post-material value orientations were expected to stimulate engagement in non-electoral

forms of action (Inglehart 1990, 321; Dalton 2014, 90–94). Indeed, evidence indicates that

there is an association between post-material values and participation in non-violent protest

activities within the domestic political context such as petition signing and joining in

boycotts at the individual level (Copeland 2014; Dalton 2014; Opp 1990).

Post-material values have been associated with the EU. Inglehart (Inglehart 1977;

Inglehart 1971) argued that due to its cosmopolitan and supranational character, the EU is

aligned with post-materialist values (Inglehart 1977; Inglehart 1971). The expected positive

relationship between post-material value orientations and EU support at the individual level

does not, nonetheless, seem to hold when utilitarian considerations are controlled for

(Janssen 1991; Anderson and Reichert 1995; Inglehart, Rabier, and Reif 1991) . Over the last

decades, however, the EU has expanded its remit into a number of non-economic and “new

politics” policy areas, such as alternative life styles, social and political participation, minority

rights and social equality (Franklin and Wlezien 1997) that can be linked to post-material

value priorities. The preferences of EU citizens regarding European unification are

responsive to these issues (Ibid). It could be argued that the ECI is, in principle, a

manifestation of such post-material or self-expressive value priorities: an alternative to

established instruments of participation in the EU which is truly supranational and with a

bottom-up dimension. We expect that when citizens perceive that such post-material values

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are reflected in the EU as a political system, they shall be more inclined to use the ECI.

Taking stock of the above, the hypothesis is that:

H2: Individuals who associate the EU with values are more likely to use the ECI

Political efficacy

In addition to these two potential antecedents, we also test for the impact of individual skills

and attitudes towards politics on the likelihood to use the ECI. Politicians and EU scholars

have spoken of the potential of the ECI to involve large numbers of citizens (Bouza Garcia

and Del Río Villar 2012). We evaluate the ECI’s participatory potential against a large body of

literature on non-electoral political participation which suggests that not all people are able

or willing to get involved. Sense of efficacy is argued to tap these two dimensions. Internal

efficacy refers to the perception that one is competent to engage in the political process;

external efficacy encompasses an individual’s perception of how responsive democratic

political institutions are to citizens’ demands (see Lane 1959; Balch 1974).

Although often connected, internal and external efficacy constitute distinct

dimensions (Hayes and Bean 1993). Internal efficacy is related to perceptions about one’s

skills and resources to understand and participate as a political actor (Miller 1974, 253). It is

not surprising, therefore, that this dimension of efficacy has been found to correlate strongly

with actual political knowledge (Niemi, Craig, and Mattei 1991) and education (Jackson

1995) and linked to inequalities in political participation. Differences in operationalization

notwithstanding (see Morrell 2003, 591–595), research finds that higher levels of internal

efficacy are positively associated with electoral (Finkel 1985; Pattie and Johnston 1998;

Hadjar and Beck 2010) and non-electoral participation (Pollock 1983; Gabriel 2015).

External efficacy, on the other hand, is argued to tap a “fundamental principle in

democratic regimes, namely, that political institutions and public officials be responsive to

the preferences and needs of citizens” (Iyengar 1980, 250), indicating, therefore, support for

the political system. As such, research finds that external efficacy triggers participation in

elections (Campbell, Gurin, and Miller 1954; Pattie and Johnston 1998; Becker 2004) and in

other activities closely connected with the political process (Verba and Nie 1972). The

explanation here may partly rest on a cost-benefit calculation: the more one believes that

elected representatives are attentive the more confident one feels that participation can

have the desired outcome and is incentivized to get involved.

In a study on factors that affect intention to use the ECI, Kentmen-Cin (2014)

showed that “cynical” citizens were significantly less likely to use this instrument. The study

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used an index of “cynicism” which combined internal and external efficacy measures with

items tapping satisfaction with democracy in the EU and trust in EU institutions. We thereby

seek to advance knowledge about the distinct role played by political efficacy and its

dimensions. First, research has established that external efficacy with regard to the EU

triggers participation in EU political processes such as EP elections (Blondel, Sinnott, &

Svensson, 1997; Cox, 2003). Second, the ECI is an instrument of limited formal power,

dependent on institutional mediation in order to have an impact on policy (Cuesta-López

2012, 256). One could, therefore, expect that those who consider that overall EU policy

makers are responsive to citizens’ declared will may consider that participation can make a

difference and be incentivized to use the ECI. Those, on the other hand, who find that the EU

is not responsive may be more likely to disregard this instrument. Moreover, it has been the

ECI seems to require some basic understanding of the EU’s decision-making processes and

policy context (Boussaguet 2016). With this in mind, we also expect that individuals with

higher levels of internal efficacy would be more likely to embrace the opportunity to use the

ECI because they possess the skills necessary for understanding EU affairs. The hypotheses

are that:

H3: Individuals who understand how the EU works are likely to use the ECI.

H4: Individuals who feel that their opinion matters in the EU are likely to use the ECI.

Control variables

We acknowledge that the likelihood to use the ECI may well be influenced by other than the

hypothesized individual attitudes and skills. To avoid, hence, bias in the examination of the

hypothesized relationships we control for the influence of potential confounders without

formulating hypotheses about the direction of their effect. For reasons of parsimony, we

select factors identified as key antecedents of the intention to use the ECI, attitudes towards

the EU and participation in EP elections. First, as discussed above, satisfaction with the EU’s

democratic performance and institutions is associated with higher likelihood of using the ECI

(Kentmen-Cin 2014). Second, research indicates that identification with Europe also affects

the likelihood of using this instrument (Kentmen-Cin 2014) while support for the EU is

associated with participation in EP elections (Mattila 2003). We, therefore, include measures

to capture the potential impact of satisfaction with EU democracy, identification with

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Europe and positive attitudes towards the direction in which the EU goes in our models.2 In

addition to these determinants, we control for the potential effect of cognitive skills. Formal

education and political knowledge are generally considered to be associated with a desire

for more opportunities to participate in politics (Verba and Nie 1972). Education, in

particular, is strongly linked to the likelihood of using the ECI (Kentmen-Cin 2014).

3. Data and methods

To empirically test the hypotheses formulated in the previous section we use individual level

data from two Eurobarometer surveys conducted in May 2012 (79.3) and November 2013

(80.1). The time interval of one year and a half between the two surveys allows us to

observe whether tendencies towards the use of the ECI are relatively stable and also

whether changes occur after people get used to the idea of this democratic tool (the first

survey was conducted when the ECI had just been introduced). The sample of respondents is

probabilistic and representative at national level. The analysis is conducte d for all EU

member states and the total number of respondents is slightly higher in the November 2013

survey because Croatia was included.

The dependent variable of this study is the intention of respondents to use the ECI.

It was measured as the answer to the question “How likely or not do you think you would

make use of this European Citizens’ initiative?”. Possible answers were coded on a four -

point ordinal scale ranging from not at all likely (1) to very likely (4).

To estimate the impact of utilitarian considerations on the intention to use the ECI

(H1), we use the following question “For each of the following achievements of the EU,

could you tell me whether you have benefited from it or not?”. Respondents were

presented with a list of achievements and each answer was coded dichotomously (0 if the

respondent answered that she had not benefited and 1 if she had benefited). We measure

perceptions of benefits from the EU (H1) by means of a cumulative index of five

achievements of the EU in economic, political and social areas3: border control, consumer

rights, cheaper phone calls, medical assistance, and living/working/studying abroad. The

2 We did not test for the impact of support for the EU on the intention to use the ECI because there is

a danger of reverse causality, especially for the 2013 survey. For the theoretical argument regarding

how the use of ECI can enhance support for the EU, see Gherghina and Groh (2016). 3 Although the questionnaire presents a broader range of benefits, we selected these five benefits for

several reasons: a) they correspond to different areas of l ife; b) these are the ones on which there is variation; and c) the ones missing correlate higher with some of the ones included. We lumped

together working, l iving and studying because they refer to the same benefit (freedom of movement) that people can use at different stages of their l ives (e.g. studying as a student and working /living if older or not studying).

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final index is measured on a six-point scale with 0 corresponding to the situation when

respondents see none of these benefits and 5 when respondents see all five. We chose this

measurement because it reflects the individuals’ practical experiences in bene fiting from the

EU integration outcomes/policies and it does not include ideological or value-based

considerations.

The second independent variable, values of the EU (H2), is also coded as a

cumulative index of five values associated to the EU. Respondents were asked to mention

(coded as 1) or not (0) which values are best associated to the EU: “In the following list,

which values best represent the EU?”. We selected five different values connected with

political and social issues: rule of law, human rights, democracy, equality and solidarity

(support for others).4 The final index of values is measured on a six-point scale with the

lowest score corresponding to no value (0) and as no extreme values as 0 when respondents

associate none of these values with the EU and 5 when respondents mention all five values.

Both indexes for H1 and H2 have an equal weight for their constitutive items.

The third independent variable is the ability to understand EU politics, or else,

internal efficacy (H3). It is operationalized on a four-point scale reflecting the statement “To

what extent you understand how the EU works?” (Braun and Tausendpfund 2014). Possible

answers range between totally disagree (1) and totally agree (4). In line with previous

research (Mcevoy 2016), we rely on the question asking respondents whether they think

their voice counts in the EU as an indicator of external efficacy (H4). The variable is

measured in a similar way with a four-point scale (1 = totally disagree, 4 = totally agree).

As to the control variables, attachment to the EU is measured on a four-point scale

measuring the answer to the question “How attached do you feel to the EU?” (1= not

attached at all and 4= very attached). Satisfaction with democracy in the EU is measured in a

four-point scale as the answer to the question “How satisfied are you with democracy in the

EU?” (1= not at all satisfied and 4= very satisfied). To capture the assessment about the

direction in which the EU goes, we use the following question: “At the present time, would

you say that, in general, things are going in the right direction or in the wrong direction, in

the EU?”. The possible answers were: things are going in the wrong direction (coded as 1),

neither good nor bad (coded as 2) and things go in the right direction (coded as 3). For all

4 Again, the questionnaire includes a broader l ist of values. Our selection of values was based on

theoretical considerations (fit to the Europeanization and post-materialist theory) as well as on methodological concerns (existence of variation and correlation of some of the values that are not included).

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variables (dependent plus independent) “do not know” answers were treated as missing

values. The mean and standard deviation of all variables are reported in Appendix 1.

Knowledge about the EU is measured by a cumulative index (on a 0–3 scale) of the

answers provided to factual questions. The general question reads as follows: “For each of

the following sentences about the EU, could you please tell me whether you think it is true

or false?” These were: “The EU consists of (the correct number of)5 member states”, “The

Members of the European Parliament are directly elected by the citizens of each Member

State” and “Switzerland is a member of the EU”. A knowledgeable respondent would answer

“true” to the first two questions and “false” to the third one. Each of these correct answers

received a score of 1, while any other answer (including the “do not know”) included a score

of 0 because that showed absence of knowledge. The index represents the sum of the

answers to these questions and ranges from 0 (no knowledge at all) to 3 (knowledge on all

three items). Education is measured on a three-point scale variable: up to 15 years of

education coded as 1, 16-19 years of education coded 2, 20 years of education or more

coded 3.6

The empirical analysis that follows is structured along bivariate and multivariate

statistical analysis. Since all variables are ordinal we use non-parametric correlations

(Spearman) and ordered logistic regressions. Moreover, as the distribution is skewed (see

Figure 1), the use of standard errors to compensate for that problem was considered

appropriate.

4. Findings

There is considerable variation in the intention of the European citizens to make use of the

ECI. Figure 1 presents the distribution of respondents in both surveys, each bar reflecting

percentages. These are fairly similar in the two surveys. Overall, there is a general reluctance

towards the use of this participatory tool in the EU with three out of four respondents saying

that it is not at all or not very likely to use it in the future. In the 2013 survey the percentage

of people who said that it is not at all likely to use the ECI is slightly higher than in 2012 (39%

vs. 36%). This stability of preferences may be an indicator of the poor visibility of the ECI or

of its limited potential of action. At the other extreme a constant percentage of only 5% of

the respondents are very likely to use the ECI.

5 27 in the May 2012 survey and 28 in the November 2013 survey.

6 It could be argued that respondent’s age cound make a difference on the intention to use the ECI.

We control led for its potential effect and the statistical test indicated a very low impact (considerably lower than the other controls included in the paper). We, therefore, exclude age from the models.

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Figure 1: The intention of EU citizens to use the ECI

The variables associated with the intention to use the ECI and the direction and strength of

association are presented in Table 1. The correlation coefficients indicate that all

hypothesized effects go in the expected direction, statistically significant at the 0.01 level.

Among them, the perceptions of benefits brought by the EU correlate the highest with the

intention to use the ECI in a positive manner. This is followed by the two components of

efficacy with citizens who understand how the EU works and those considering that their

voice counts in the EU favouring the use of the ECI. The EU values (the more, the better) are

only weakly correlated to the use of ECI. The control variables also correlate positively with

the intention to use the ECI, all relationships being significant at the 0.01 level.

Table 1: Bivariate correlations between intention to use the ECI and other variables

Variables May 2012 November 2013

EU benefits 0.28** 0.25** EU values 0.12** 0.14** Understand how EU works 0.22** 0.23** Voice counts in EU 0.20** 0.19** EU attachment 0.24** 0.24** EU democratic satisfaction 0.13** 0.15** EU right direction 0.10** 0.11** Knowledge about the EU 0.12** 0.11** Education 0.16** 0.17** N 20,696-23,522 22,773-25,302

Notes: Reported coefficients are non-parametric (Spearman). N differs across questions due to missing values

** significant at p < 0.01; * significant at p < 0.05.

36

38

21

5

39

36

20

5

N O T A T A L L L I K E L Y N O T V E R Y L I K E L Y F A I R L Y L IK E L Y V E R Y L I K E L Y

2012 2013

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12

The multivariate statistical models (Table 2) include the main effects (Model 1) and the

control variables (Model 2) for each survey. One general observation is that the inclusion of

the control variables does not improve the fit of the model, i.e. the value of the pseudo R2 is

fairly similar in the full model when compared to the one without controls. At the same

time, the effect size and direction of the main variables remains largely unchanged. A second

observation is that all hypothesized effects are statistically significant at the 0.01 level

(unlike many of the controls) and they are consistent with the findings of the bivariate

correlations. For example, effects appear to be stable when looking at the two different

surveys, and the variables that correlated highly with the intention to use the ECI have the

strongest impact in the multivariate models as well.

There is empirical support for all four hypothesized relationships in both statistical

models (with and without control variables). Hypothesis H1 predicted a positive association

between perceptions of benefits from the EU and the intention to use the ECI. In 2012 and

2013, individuals perceiving benefits from the EU were 1.23 and 1.20 times respectively

more likely to use the ECI compared to those who did not identify any advantages brought

by the EU, controlling for other antecedents. Hypothesis H2, predicting that people who

attach more values to the EU are more likely to use the ECI also received empirical support.

Note that the effect of values is slightly smaller to that of benefits. Among the hypothesized

motivational factors, internal efficacy (H3) has the strongest effect. In 2012, respondents

who reported a better understanding of how the EU functions were 1.25 times more likely

to use the ECI in comparison to those citizens who did not feel that way, controlling for all

other factors. The effect of efficacy is slightly higher in the 2013 survey. External efficacy, ie.

perceptions that one’s voice counts in the EU, is also positively associated with the intention

to use the ECI (H4).

Among the control variables, respondents with a strong attachment to the EU (OR =

1.35 in 2012; 1.32 in 2013) or those who are better educated (OR = 1.17 for both surveys)

are more likely to use the ECI. Both effects are significant at the 0.01 level. The other

controls show no consistent significant effect.

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Table 2: Ordinal logistic regression with intention to use the ECI as dependent variable

Variables May 2012 November 2013 Model 1 Model 2 Model 1 Model 2

EU benefits 1.29** (0.01)

1.23** (0.01)

1.25** (0.01)

1.20** (0.01)

EU values 1.10** (0.02)

1.04* (0.02)

1.17** (0.02)

1.10** (0.02)

Understand how EU works 1.39** (0.03)

1.25** (0.03)

1.46** (0.03)

1.33** (0.03)

Voice counts in EU 1.25** (0.02)

1.13** (0.02)

1.20** (0.02)

1.10** (0.02)

EU attachment 1.35** (0.03)

1.32** (0.03)

EU democratic satisfaction 0.97 (0.02)

1.01 (0.02)

EU right direction 1.06** (0.02)

1.00 (0.02)

Knowledge about the EU 1.03 (0.02)

1.02 (0.02)

Education 1.17** (0.03)

1.17** (0.03)

N 19,534 15,488 21,729 17,473 Pseudo R2 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.05 Wald Chi2 2096.89 1671.62 2266.51 1844.31

Notes: Reported coefficients are odds-ratios, robust standard errors in brackets. ** significant at p < 0.01; * significant at p < 0.05

To investigate further, we estimated the marginal effects of the two explanatory factors that

were found to have the strongest impact on the intention to use the ECI: perceptions of EU

benefits and internal efficacy. Figure 2 presents the results of the analysis. Τhese effects

calculated for both 2012 and 2013 indicate some very small differences between the surveys

in line with the findings of the multivariate analysis. More precisely, the marginal effect of

perceptions of benefits from the EU is slightly stronger in 2012, while that of internal

efficacy is somewhat stronger in 2013. Moreover, the marginal effect of EU benefits is

somewhat weaker than that of efficacy. There is a change in the probability of the intention

to use the ECI by roughly 0.15 when respondents report to have taken advantage of an

additional aspect of the EU. Intention to use the ECI increases at a higher rate (0.2) when

respondents display a higher level of external efficacy.

Figure 2: Marginal effects of benefits and efficacy on the intention to use the ECI

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5. Discussion and conclusions

Citizen participation in EU politics beyond the representative channel offered by the EP is

getting prominence in academic and political debates as a tool for bringing the EU closer to

its citizens and addressing the democratic deficit. Against this background, expectations

abound as to the potential of the ECI to enable citizen involvement in the shaping of EU

politics. Very little is, nonetheless, known about why citizens may be interested in using this

instrument. Extending the scant research on the factors that impact the likelihood of using

the ECI and building on broader scholarship on political participation, this paper examined

the role that utilitarian and value-based considerations about the EU play in the intention to

use the ECI. It additionally tested for the motivating impact of political efficacy. As such, this

study offers new knowledge on why citizens may engage with this new instrument and

contributes to the broader debate about participation in non-electoral political processes

targeting the EU

1.8

22.2

2.4

2.6

EC

I 2

01

2

0 1 2 3 4 5

EU Benefits

1.6

1.8

22.2

2.4

EC

I 2

01

3

0 1 2 3 4 5

EU Benefits

1.6

1.8

22.2

2.4

EC

I 2

01

2

1 2 3 4

Understand how the EU works

1.6

1.8

22.2

2.4

EC

I 2

01

3

1 2 3 4

Understand how the EU works

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The findings provided empirical support for the impact of benefit considerations,

value-based assessments and political efficacy on the intention to use the ECI. First,

empirical results – bivariate and regression analysis with controls - indicate that cost-benefit

evaluations are associated with the intention to use the ECI. According to rational-choice

inspired accounts, costs include the (time) resources invested to get informed about the

initiative and to sign it. Additional costs are represented by the low likelihood to achieve the

desired outcomes, i.e. reforms asked by the particular ECI . Similarly to what has been

demonstrated for participation in EP elections, the costs of participation seem to be

outweighed by perceptions of benefits stemming from the EU. Second, the analysis reveals

that the intention to use the ECI is not only interest-driven. Value-based assessments of the

EU have a positive effect on a person’s likelihood to use the ECI, controlling for the effect of

benefits and other antecedents. The motivating role of values that is investigated here has

foundations on Europeanization and post-materialism value theories. Associations of the EU

with key democratic values seem to act as a source of political legitimacy which in turn

triggers interest in participating in EU political processes such as the ECI. In addition, the

result further points to the relative significance of EU’s identification with post-materialist

values for engagement in new forms of political participation in the EU realm.

Overall, it appears that the intention to use ECI is driven by positive evaluations of

the EU - both as a benefit-provider and as a polity characterized by values - rather than by

negative ones. This is consistent with our theories and is, perhaps, related to the

institutionalized, character of the instrument vis-à-vis its weak policy impact. Indeed, the

potential policy impact of an ECI depends on support from the EU’s bodies. The major

implications of this finding is that the ECI is not likely to be to be tool for individuals and

groups who are excluded from enjoying the advances that the EU integration has to offer or

fail to associate the EU with democratic values. Hence, the ECI in essence the may be used

for signaling political preferences but is not likely to act as a vehicle for the expression of

profound discontent with what the EU has to offer and what it represents.

The evidence presented here about the role of political efficacy supports the

implication advanced about the limits of the ECI as a form of citizen involvement. The ECI is

more likely to be attractive to individuals who support and have confidence in the

responsiveness of the EU’s political system rather than those who feel alienated in EU

political processes. Confirming earlier research on the subject (Kentmen-Cin, 2014;

Gherghina and Groh, 2016), it seems quite unlikely that the ECI shall fulfill the purported role

of bringing citizens closer to the EU. Moreover, the effect for internal efficacy points to a

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similar direction. We have argued and demonstrated that the likelihood of using the ECI

depends on the perceived capacity to understand how politics works in the EU. As the latter

hinges on the possession of certain attributes that make some citizens more competent to

deal with the requirements involved (Verba, Schlozman, and Brady 1995), the finding speaks

against expectations that the ECI can facilitate wider public involvement in EU-affairs.

Our study uses two surveys collected in the first 18 months after the

implementation of the ECI. This can be regarded as a weakness of the analysis since the

effects may need a longer period of time. Also, due to data availability constraints we focus

on the intention to use the ECI and not on actual use. Further studies can compensate for

these shortcomings by expanding the period of investigation and delving into the actual use

of the ECI. With respect to the latter one fruitful avenue for re search is to conduct

qualitative interviews with people who have launched or supported an ECI. This will allow

more in-depth understanding of the trends identified in this paper.

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Appendix 1: Mean and standard deviation of variables included in analysis

Variables May 2012 November 2013 Mean Standard

deviation Mean Standard

deviation

Intention to use ECI 1.97 0.01 1.92 0.01 EU benefits 1.47 0.01 1.31 0.01 EU values 1.33 0.01 1.13 0.01 Understand how EU works 2.61 0.01 2.57 0.01 Voice counts in EU 2.15 0.01 2.11 0.01 EU attachment 2.40 0.01 2.40 0.01 EU democratic satisfaction 2.42 0.01 2.40 0.01 EU right direction 1.70 0.01 1.86 0.01 Knowledge about the EU 2.15 0.01 2.15 0.01 Education 2.17 0.01 2.19 0.01

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