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What will happen in Abyei in October 2013?

ByLuka Biong Deng

Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School

lukabiong@kushworld.orgluka_kuol@hks.harvard.edu

Published by the New Nation NewspaperAbyei, South Sudan, October 2013

The people of Abyei are now in October, the month that was promised by theAU to conduct a referendum to determine the final status of their area. Withthis promised referendum and the right decision taken by the government ofSouth Sudan to allow all public civil servants from Abyei to go to participate inthe referendum, most people of Abyei are now converging in Abyei to settle in

their home areas, yet to determine the political future of their area.

It is almost ten years when Abyei Protocol was signed in 2004 and suchagreement was received with jubilation by the people of Abyei. They felt that atlast justice has been done as they would freely determine the final status of

their area through a referendum. It is almost four years since the HagueInternational Court of Arbitration announced its ruling in 2009 that definedthe area of Ngok Dinka. They felt again justice has been done by theinternational court and expected their referendum would now be conductedsmoothly despite the fact that they have lost about 44 percent of their area as

defined by Abyei Boundaries Commission.

It is nearly three years when the people of Abyei were expected to have theirreferendum to be conducted simultaneously with that of the South on 9 thJanuary 2011. Yet they are still waiting for such referendum because ofintransigent of Sudan that caused instead enormous human sufferingincluding the assassination of their Paramount Chief Kuol Deng. Equally, theywere promised to receive as of 9th July 2011 two percent of oil produced fromtheir area to assist in the return and rehabilitation of their area. Yet, they areunable to access these oil resources that are being usurped by Sudan.

Since the invasion of Abyei by Sudan in 2011 and the displacement of morethan 150,000 persons, the international community has not been able to assist

the return with exception of limited intervention by USA. Other countries areunwilling to provide assistance in Abyei under the pretext of not contributing tothe pull factors of return. Ironically, even with the people who have voluntarily

returned to Abyei, the international community is unable to assist because ofuncertain future of the area; a condition created by Sudan with complacent bythe international community. Humanitarian assistance is to assist rather than

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prescribing to the people of how to manage the causes of their vulnerability.While Sudan has deliberately decided not to sign a document for the formation

of Abyei Joint Humanitarian Coordination Taskforce, the internationalcommunity seems to be rewarding such action by not encouraging

humanitarian intervention in the area without the consent of Sudan.

In October 2012, The AU urgently called on the international community toassist the safe and dignified return of all displaced persons to Abyei andrequested the AU Commission to convene an international conference on therehabilitation and reconstruction of Abyei. It is more than one year andinternational community is not available to assist the safe and dignified returnof the Ngok Dinka. The AU, paradoxically, decided in September 2013 to reciteand without remorse the same decision it took more than one year ago withoutasking itself of what happened to its previous decisions.

Besides the apparent failure to assist the return of the Ngok Dinka, the stance

of international community in resolving the final status of Abyei has been soinconsistent. Thousands of people went out in demonstration in Juba, Abyeiand New York demanding the AU to endorse the Proposal on Abyei in itsmeeting in September. Also most African civil society organizations including

those from Sudan and South Sudan as well as most international humanrights organizations called on the AU to endorse the Proposal on Abyei.

What did they get from the meeting of AU? A poor and confused communiquthat is so inconsistent with its earlier decisions and so appalling and damaging

to the credibility of the AU institutions. This communiqu underscores onefundamental fact that our African institutions are so dysfunctional and so

weak to resolve African problems. It is worthless for one to analyze theinconsistency of the decisions contained in the communiqu. The slogans ofAfrican solutions for African problems, African renaissance and Pan-Africanismare becoming increasingly elusive and mere rhetoric.

Even the communiqu of the Sudan and South Sudan Consultative Forum wasas well shallow as it mirrored the deficiency in the communiqu of the AU. Theonly glimpse of hope was the statement delivered by Ambassador Power, theUS permanent representative to the UN, to the Forum that emphasized the

right of people of Abyei to determine their political future. Some countries andparticularly Russia seems to judge the situation in Abyei on a rather

uninformed ground. Russia seems to lock itself in a wrong understanding thatthe issue of Abyei is a territorial dispute.

If the issue of Abyei is a territorial dispute, Russia is uneasy as that may set aprecedent in imposing solutions for other border disputes between othercountries including Russia. Despite the UN Resolution 2046 that endorsed the

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AU Roadmap of April 2012, it seems Russia has been effective in influencingthe members of AU not to endorse the Proposal on Abyei and even seems to be

threatening to use veto right in the UN Security Council. The issue of Abyei isnot a territorial dispute as the territory of Abyei has been defined by the

international court of arbitration and what is remaining is the conduct of Abyei

referendum that was penned by the two countries, agreed upon byinternationally community and clarified by the AU Panel. The last decision bythe AU on Abyei seems to have been largely influenced by the Russian stance.

While the AU in its last communiqu has understandably asked South Sudanand Sudan as members state of AU not to take unilateral decision on the finalstatus of Abyei, the Consultative Forum for no any good reason raised concernof the unilateral actions by Misseriyia community and Ngok Dinka communityas if the area of Abyei is shared between Misseriyia and Ngok Dinka. It is sodisappointing to see the deliberate intention of the international community

not to recognize the glaring fact that there was final and binding international

arbitration that clearly defined the area of Abyei as the area of the Ngok Dinka.Misseriyia nomads like other nomads such as Dinka Abiem, Dinka Twic, DinkaRuweng, Dinka Panarou, Dinka Awan and Nuer have the same right in Abyei ofseasonally accessing water and pastures for their cattle. Singling out Misseriyia

as the only nomads in Abyei area is a reflection of ignorance of internationalcommunity. Equally, not all Missseriyia nomads move through Abyei but onlytwo sections.

The People of Abyei were expecting the AU to endorse the Proposal on Abyei

and to set a clear timeline for the conduct of Abyei referendum. The lastcommuniqu of AU on Abyei has not only delayed justice but it has contributed

to the long history of disappointments and frustration experienced by thepeople of Abyei. As rightly stated by President Mbeki in his report to the AU inJuly 2013 that the people of Abyei are running out of patience in the face ofdelayed implementation of the final status of their area, the people of Abyeimay be pushed by the inaction of international community to self-determinetheir political future.

There are only two options available to avert any unilateral decision by thepeople of Abyei. First, the AU during its visit to Abyei in October has the last

opportunity to endorse the AU Proposal on Abyei; particularly after receivingofficial letter from President Salva that made it clear that they have reached a

dead-end with Bashir over Abyei. Or the expected summit between the twopresidents in Juba in October 2013 to agree to implement the decision of AU toestablish, with clear timeline, the Abyei Referendum Commission as per the AU

proposal on Abyei.

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Such decisions will assist President Salva, who enjoys respect and trust of thepeople of Abyei, to prevail on them not to take any unilateral decision. One

would expect by the end of October 2013 that either the AU to endorse theproposal on Abyei or the expected summit of the two Presidents to agree on

establishing Abyei Referendum Commission or the people of Abyei may decide

their political future. For the sake of peace and stability in the area and toconsolidate the improved relations between the two countries, the unilateraldecision of the people Abyei must be averted by immediate action by the AUand the political will of two Presidents to implement the AU decision to formAbyei Referendum Commission.