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What’s Happening in….
Aberdeenshire’s Economy
Annual Review November 2019
A publication by the Planning Information and Delivery Team
From mountain to sea
November 2019 2 | P a g e
What’s happening in... Aberdeenshire’s Economy
Contents
Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 2
Latest Headlines ........................................................................................................................................... 3
Overview ...................................................................................................................................................... 3
People and Employment ............................................................................................................................... 4
Housing Market .......................................................................................................................................... 10
Businesses ................................................................................................................................................. 11
Tourism ...................................................................................................................................................... 12
Aberdeen Airport ........................................................................................................................................ 13
Fishing ........................................................................................................................................................ 13
Agriculture .................................................................................................................................................. 14
Energy Industry .......................................................................................................................................... 14
Contact Details ........................................................................................................................................... 15
Introduction
Welcome to the second edition of Aberdeenshire’s Economy, Annual Review, produced by Aberdeenshire
Council’s Planning Information and Delivery Team. Other publications in this series can be found at:
https://www.aberdeenshire.gov.uk/council-and-democracy/statistics/economy/
This publication provides a snapshot of Aberdeenshire’s economy, drawing on national statistics. The
review is published on an annual basis, supported by quarterly update bulletins.
Corresponding data tables are provided in the Aberdeenshire’s Economy Annual Review Supporting Data
publication.
For more information on any of the figures published, or for any other statistical enquires please contact an
Information and Research Officer on [email protected]
November 2019 3 | P a g e
What’s happening in... Aberdeenshire’s Economy
Latest Headlines
Brexit
Uncertainty surrounding Brexit is still currently dominating the news, with the outlook for businesses, the
economy and public finances equally unclear.
The Scottish Government’s Report: No-deal Brexit outline the potential economic implications and impact a
no deal Brexit may have on Scotland, looking at topics such as exposed sectors of employment and
workforce nationality. They are also produced an interactive map which shows Brexit vulnerability down to
datazone level. While this varies significantly across Scotland, rural areas are on average shown to be
more vulnerable.
Housing Market
There are mixed signals from the Aberdeen City and Shire housing market. There is growing optimism in
the continual revival in the oil industry, but this is occurring against the backdrop of uncertainly over Brexit.
According to the Registers of Scotland there has been a 4% increase in the number of home sales in the
North east year to date (January to August) compared to the same period 12 months ago. In Aberdeenshire
the value of transactions also increased, up 6% over this period, suggesting a market resilience in higher
end homes. However, the average price of a property in the Shire remained relatively static, dropping by
just 1% over this period.
Energy News
According to the Aberdeen & Grampian Chamber of Commerce’s Oil and Gas Survey, May 2019, 90% of
firms interviewed stated they were optimistic about the long-term future of Aberdeen as an energy hub, with
72% forecasting an increase in profits for 2019.
Two new oil fields in the North Sea, one in British waters, one in Norwegian began production in September
2019. The field is expected to produce more than 300 million barrels of oil over the next 30 years
(offshoretoday.com).
The University of Aberdeen has recently announced their intentions to set up a new Centre of Energy
Transition. The Centre “will provide a focus for all areas of energy-related research, with an emphasis on
supporting industry in the transition to clean energy and renewables”. It aims to contribute to the long-term
economic future of the north-east of Scotland.
Infrastructure
The long-awaited Aberdeen Western Peripheral Route was fully opened in February 2019 (although many
sections had been useable before this date). Not only has the new road reduced journey times around
Aberdeen, according to Galbraith property consultants the road has widened home buyers search both
north and south of the city.
Transport Scotland plans to dual the A96 between Inverness and Aberdeen, involving the upgrade of 86
miles of single carriageway between the two cities. Part of the project involves a new dual carriageway
between east of Huntly and Aberdeen. A route option assessment for the new carriageway is now
underway, following the procurement of a design consultant.
The trainline between Aberdeen and Inverness is currently being upgraded, with the entire project
scheduled to be completed by 2030. The project aims to reduce journey times, while increasing the
frequency of the service. During 2019 work began on doubling the track between Aberdeen and Inverurie
while construction started on a new station at Kintore. This is due for completion early 2020.
Aberdeen harbour has been undergoing a £350 million expansion, now due for completion in 2021. As the
works will allow cruise ships to berth alongside the dock it is anticipated the project will encourage tourism
into the region.
November 2019 4 | P a g e
What’s happening in... Aberdeenshire’s Economy
Overview
Gross Value Added (per capita) levels off in the North East
Gross Value Added
(GVA) is the measure of
the value of goods and
services produced in an
area. Using per capita
figures, you can compare
economies of varying
sizes. GVA in the North
East has remained higher
than the national average.
Between 2014 and 2016
the area experienced a
reduction in GVA but the
latest figures for 2017
show a 4% annual
increase, compared to 3%
national.
People and Employment
Aberdeenshire’s over 70s Projected to Increase
In 2018 Aberdeenshire’s
population was 261,470,
representing 4.8% of Scotland’s
total population. The authority
area has seen a small decrease
of 330 people since 2017 and is
the second consecutive year that
Aberdeenshire’s population has
fallen. This mainly due to net
migration for the area. Outward
migration has remained constant
however inward migration has
notable dropped. Aberdeen City
and Shire respectively seeing
the largest fall in net migration
for Scottish local authorities over
this period.
62% of Aberdeenshire’s
population is of working age, just
below the Scottish average of
64%. While those of
pensionable age (19%) mirrors
the national average,
Aberdeenshire has a slightly
higher proportion of under 16-
year olds living in the area.
For more information on Aberdeenshire’s population please ask about our Population Bulletins.
5% 3% 1% 1% 3% 5%
0 - 4
5 - 9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 84
85 - 89
90 +
Male Population
2018
Estimated 2038
Female Population
2018
Estimated 2038
£25,685
£40,667
Scotland Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire
November 2019 5 | P a g e
What’s happening in... Aberdeenshire’s Economy
Economic Activity
Between 2018 and 2019 the employment rate in Aberdeenshire decreased by 0.5%, compared to the national increase of 0.2%. However, it should be noted
that Aberdeenshire still outperforms the national average, with the 4th highest employment rate of the 32 Scottish Local Authorities. Unemployment levels
within the area also decreased, by 0.7% over the same period (down 0.1% nationally).
This apparent inconsistency in the figures can be explained through the rise by 1.2% in those people who are economically inactive (people not in
employment who have not been seeking work within the last 4 weeks and/or are unable to start work within the next 2 weeks). There has also been a marked
difference between male and female employment. Between 2018 and 2019 female employment rose by 2.9%, while unemployment dropped by 0.9%, while
male employment fell by 3.8% with unemployment falling by just 0.6%. This suggests more women became economically active over this time while more
men left the labour force.
Aberdeenshire Economic Activity Rates 2019
Lowest Average Highest Shire City Aberdeenshire Aberdeen City Scottish Average Scottish Range
Economic Activity Rate 70.0 77.8 90.4 83.4 80.8
Employment Rate - All 65.8 74.5 88.7 80.9 75.7
Employment Rate - Males 68.7 78.1 96.0 84.6 80.9
Employment Rate - Females 62.7 71.1 82.5 77.1 70.5
Unemployment Rate - All 1.7 4.2 6.3 3.0 6.3
Unemployment Rate - Males 1.7 4.5 7.5 3.7 5.4
Unemployment Rate - Females 1.4 3.9 7.2 2.1 7.2
Economically Inactive Rate 9.6 22.2 30.0 16.6 19.2
% Inactive Males wanting work 8.1 23.0 42.6 14.1 21.8
% Inactive females wanting work 7.9 20.2 50.3 20.7 22.3
Unemployment Indicators
While unemployment levels provide a useful insight into the condition of the local economy, such figures
are only available annually. By analysing Claimant Counts (the number of people claiming Jobseeker's
Allowance plus those who claim Universal Credit and are required to seek work) you can get a more up to
date indication of the local job market (although less comprehensive).
The figures below use Travel to Work Areas (TTWA). These are self-contained labour markets were most
residents live and work within that geographical location.
Total Claimant Count (age 16+)
August 2019 (latest)
July 2019 August 2018 Month Change
Year Change
Aberdeen City 3,855 3,650 3,060 +5.6% +26%
Aberdeenshire 2,845 2,740 1,995 +3.8% +43%
North East Total 6,700 6,390 5,055 +4.9% +33%
Aberdeen TTWA 5,145 4,875 4,080 +5.5% +26%
Fraserburgh TTWA 400 390 195 +2.6% +105%
Peterhead TTWA 635 630 470 +0.8% +35%
Turriff & Banff TTWA 395 380 245 +3.9% +61%
Claimants as a proportion of residents aged 16-64
August 2019 (latest)
July 2019 August 2018 Month Change
Year Change
Aberdeen City 2.5 2.3 1.9 +0.2 +0.6
Aberdeenshire 1.7 1.7 1.2 +0.0 +0.5
Aberdeen TTWA 1.9 1.8 1.5 +0.1 +0.4
Fraserburgh TTWA 2.8 2.8 1.4 +0.0 +1.4
Peterhead TTWA 2.7 2.6 2.0 +0.1 +0.7
Turriff & Banff TTWA 2.5 2.4 1.5 +0.1 +1.0
Unemployment Count in the North East increases during 2019
Over the last 12 months
there has been a
noticeable increase
across Aberdeenshire
in the number of people
claiming job seekers
allowance. This trend
has been mirrored
across Scotland with a
national average
increase in the number
of claims of 22%, or a
0.6 increase in the
proportion of over 16-
year olds claiming.
What’s happening in... Aberdeenshire’s Economy
5,055
6,700
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
Jobs
November 2019 7 | P a g e
What’s happening in... Aberdeenshire’s Economy
Education
Aberdeenshire School Leavers by highest SCQF level achieved - 2018
Local Authority
Number of leavers
No passes at SCQF
Level 3 or better
SCQF Level 3
SCQF Level 4
SCQF Level 5
SCQF Level 6
SCQF Level 7
Aberdeenshire 2,549 2.3% 0.5% 8.1% 26.4% 39.5% 23.1%
Scotland 49,748 2.2% 1.6% 10.3% 23.8% 42.0% 20.2%
In 2018 Aberdeenshire pupils were 0.1% more likely to leave school without any qualification than the
Scottish average. However, 89% of all Aberdeenshire school pupils attained a SCQF Level 5 or above,
compared to 83% in Scotland
Destination of Aberdeenshire School Pupils
In 2018 over 95% of
Aberdeenshire school pupils
went on to positive destinations.
This was 2% higher than the
national average and
represented a 1% increase from
the previous year.
67% of Aberdeenshire pupils
opted to enter further or higher
education, the same proportion
as in 2017. This compares with
62% across Scotland choosing
the same path.
Fewer pupils entered
employment or training in
Aberdeenshire compared to
Scotland, at 26% v 28% and 1%
v 2% respectively.
5% of Aberdeenshire school pupils did not go on
to postive destinations
3% unemployed
seeking a job
1% unknown
1% not employed
not seeking a
job
95% of Aberdeenshire school pupils
went on to "postive"
destinations
44% Higher Education
26% into jobs
24% Further
Eduction
1% Training
1% Voluntary
Work
November 2019 8 | P a g e
What’s happening in... Aberdeenshire’s Economy
National Insurance Registrations
1,058 new National Insurance numbers for adult overseas nationals were registered to
Aberdeenshire residents from the period July 2018 to June 2019. This accounted for 2.4%
of the total entering Scotland and was the 9th most popular local authority for overseas
nations to settle in.
85% of overseas nationals registering in Aberdeenshire came from EU countries,
down 4% from the previous period.
Of these new residents the largest proportion originated from Lithuania, with 212
new Lithuanians registering in Aberdeenshire. This was followed by Romania,
with 205 new residents and Poland with 164 new residents.
Origin of overseas residents settling in Aberdeenshire
7% from Asia
8% from the rest of the world
1% from non-EU European Countries
46% from EU8 Countries
25% from EU2 Countries
11% from EU15 Countries
November 2019 9 | P a g e
What’s happening in... Aberdeenshire’s Economy
Income and Earnings
Annual Household Income in Aberdeenshire higher than Scottish Average - 2018
Gender Pay Gap Aberdeenshire (resident based)
The median annual wage for all full-time workers in Aberdeenshire in 2018 was just over £30,823, 5% higher than the national average. Both male and female full-time workers experienced an increase in pay between 2017 and 2018 of 2% and 7% respectively. However, there does still exist a significant gap when both full and part time wages are considered. There are several causes for this, which are explored in the Scottish Government’s Report “Addressing the gender pay gap: employer methods”, 2019.
£31,669
£29,490
£29,818
£18,511
£0
£5,000
£10,000
£15,000
£20,000
£25,000
£30,000
£35,000
£40,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Male Full Time Workers Female Full Time Workers
All Male Workers All Female Workers
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Aberdeenshire Scotland
Scottish Average Household
Income:
£36,031 Aberdeenshire Average
Household Income:
£44,174
November 2019 10 | P a g e
What’s happening in... Aberdeenshire’s Economy
Housing Market
Aberdeenshire Sixth Highest Local Authority for Average House Prices during Q2 2019
Aberdeenshire house prices remain flat but sales increase from 2018 - 2019
From July 2018 to June 2019 the number of house sales
in Aberdeenshire rose by 11%, which compares to a
national increase of 5%.
However, prices remained relatively static for the period,
whereas across Scotland there was an average increase
of 1.5%.
House Building in Aberdeenshire anticipated to rise
988 homes were built across
Aberdeenshire during 2018. This
was 11% more than the previous
year.
Changes in the economy,
population fluctuations, local and
national politics all have a bearing
on the housing market and as
such future trends are difficult to
accurately predicted. However,
house builders are optimistic
about the market and the total
number of completions in
Aberdeenshire is projected to rise
over the next four years.
For more information please see the Housing Land Audit 2019.
£178,832
£201,801
£211,092
£0
£100,000
£200,000
£300,000
+11%
Actual Completions
Anticipated Completions
1,284 1,298
1,152
889 988 1,013
1,299
1,495
1,666
1,460
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
0.0%
£
November 2019 11 | P a g e
What’s happening in... Aberdeenshire’s Economy
Businesses
Aberdeenshire Business Enterprises compared to previous year (2017 – 2018):
1.0% 0.4% 0.7%
Number of Enterprises Number of Employees Profit Turnover
In Aberdeenshire during 2018 there were an estimated 14,185 Business Enterprises, employing 92,070
people with a turnover of £16,173 million. These figures show a small decrease in the number of
enterprises and the turnover but a slight increase in the number of employees
This is the second consecutive year where the number of enterprises in Aberdeenshire has fallen.
However, the increase in employees is a positive sign that confidence in the economy is growing.
Aberdeenshire Business Enterprises by size 2018
96% of all businesses in Aberdeenshire in 2018 employed fewer than 50 people, reflecting the national
average. They were however responsible for 53% of all business employment in the region, highlighting
their significance to the local economy. Only 2% of local businesses employed over 250 people, however
they generated 53% of the total turnover across all businesses in Aberdeenshire.
Business Start-ups and Deaths
The latest figures show that in 2017 there were 1,125 new business start-ups in
Aberdeenshire, and 1,200 business “deaths” (or closures). This equates to a
net loss of 75 businesses for the year. While encouragingly the area had the
6th highest start-up rate for all the local authorities in Scotland, it also held the
4rd highest closure rate (after Glasgow, Edinburgh and Aberdeen City).
13,645
255
285
49,210
13,350
29,520
£5,960
£2,504
£7,709
0 - 49 employees
50 - 249 employees
250+ employees
Number of enterprises Total employment Total turnover (£m)
November 2019 12 | P a g e
What’s happening in... Aberdeenshire’s Economy
Tourism
Tourism plays a significant role in the local economy, creating jobs and generating income through
attractions, businesses and services.
The below image displays data for Aberdeen City and Shire combined during 2017 (unless otherwise
specified) and has been taken from Visit Scotland’s insight department.
According to research undertaken on behalf of Visit Aberdeenshire in 2017, 56% of tourists surveyed were
either very or fairly likely to recommend Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire to friends and family as a visitor
destination. “Coastlines”, “whiskey” and “castles” were the three highest scoring tourist assets visitors
attributed to the region, where as “authentically Scottish”, “historic” and “naturally beautiful” were the three
perception statements regarding the area that promoted the highest agreement responses from those
surveyed. More tourism figures can be found at Visit Aberdeenshire’s data dashboard:
https://dashboard.visitabdn.com/
Tourism in the North East
£304 million spent by domestic
and international visitors
The average
length of staywas 5 nights,
compared to 9 nights across Scotland
58% of accomodation
rooms were
occupied, compared to 71% across Scotland
8,000 people were employed
in sustainable tourism jobs in
jAberdeenshire in 2016
There were over
1.1 million domestic and international
visitors to the region
£153m GVA was generated from tourism for the
Aberdeenshireeconomy
Overseas visitors numbers by Country of origin:
•55,000 US
•48,000 Germany
•36,000 Norway
•25,000 France
•23,000 Netherlands
November 2019 13 | P a g e
What’s happening in... Aberdeenshire’s Economy
Aberdeen Airport
Airport Passenger Numbers
While there will always be seasonal variation in the number of passengers travelling
through Aberdeen Airport, over the last 12-month period each month showed a decrease
from the same month in the previous year. The most recent figures are from July 2019,
where 280,120 passengers flew from Aberdeen Airport, a 4% decrease from July
2018. February saw the biggest % drop year on year, with 8% less passengers
flying during the month.
Aberdeen Airport Passenger Numbers fall
Fishing
The latest official figures on the fishing industry covering 2018 show a slight improvement in the industry in
the North East from the previous year. The below figures are for Peterhead, Fraserburgh and Aberdeen
harbour districts
For more information please see the Aberdeenshire Sea Fisheries Statistics.
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Au
g-1
7
Se
p-1
7
Oct-
17
No
v-1
7
De
c-1
7
Jan-1
8
Feb
-18
Ma
r-1
8
Apr-
18
Ma
y-1
8
Ju
n-1
8
Ju
l-1
8
Au
g-1
8
Se
p-1
8
Oct-
18
No
v-1
8
De
c-1
8
Ja
n-1
9
Feb
-19
Ma
r-1
9
Ap
r-1
9
Ma
y-1
9
Ju
n-1
9
Ju
l-1
9
185,305 tonnes of fish landed, 4% up from 2017
57% of all fish landed in Scotland arrive at North East Harbours
£233 million landed value, no change from 2017
1,300 fishers employed locally, 27% of Scotland's total fishers
12-month period 12-month period
November 2019 14 | P a g e
What’s happening in... Aberdeenshire’s Economy
Agriculture
Previously, regional agricultural figures could be obtained through the Scottish
Government’s annual Economic Report on Scottish Agriculture (ERSA). However,
following a consultation has been decided to reduce the frequency of ERSA publications
from every year to every three or five years. Therefore, the June 2019 ERSA publication
has been postponed until further notice.
Below are the latest figures for the North East region for 2017:
North East % of Scotland’s Total
Total working occupiers 6,528 17%
Total full-time employees 2,183 16%
Total part-time employees 1,177 15%
Total casual and seasonal employees 1,152 14%
Total employees 4,512 15%
Total workforce (including occupiers) 11,040 16%
In 2017 the region contained 20% of all Scotland’s cattle, 10% of all sheep, 60% of all pigs and 13% of all
poultry.
Energy Industry
Monthly trend for Oil Price ($) per barrel
It’s been five year since the industry downturn and while prices may not have returned to their 2012 peak ($125 per barrel), there is a general feeling of resilience, with prices remaining above $50 per barrel over the latest two years.
The latest edition (May 2019) of the Aberdeen & Grampian Chamber of Commerce Oil and Gas Survey echoes this sentiment with 90% of those surveyed optimistic about the long-term future of Aberdeen as an oil and gas/ energy hub.
$46.52
$30.70
$81.03
$64.22
November 2019 15 | P a g e
What’s happening in... Aberdeenshire’s Economy
Contact Details
Should you have any queries regarding the content of this publication please do not hesitate to contact an
Information and Research Officer on [email protected]
Further publications are available on our webpages: http://www.aberdeenshire.gov.uk/council-and-
democracy/statistics/
If you require information on a topic not currently covered or are looking support in your own research and
analysis, please do not hesitate to get in touch.