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Wheat. Kim’s web site for wheat market information. agecon.okstate.edu/anderson. The price of wheat on June 20, 2007. KWN7 $4.60 W7 $4.41 HRW basis-$0.30. $4.30 $4.00. Are there any questions?. Talking Points. Price & weather Wheat Stocks Argentina & Australia - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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WheatWheat
Kim’s web sitefor wheat market information
Kim’s web sitefor wheat market information
agecon.okstate.edu/andersonagecon.okstate.edu/anderson
The price of wheat on June 20, 2007The price of wheat on June 20, 2007
KWN7 $4.60W7 $4.41HRW basis -$0.30
Are there any questions?Are there any questions?
$4.30$4.00
Talking PointsTalking Points
Price & weather
Wheat Stocks
Argentina & Australia
Plantings ’07 production
Use – domestic, exports & world
Price
Talking PointsTalking Points
PricePrice
KCBT nearby priceKCBT nearby price
1.9.491
1.8.429
CBT nearby priceCBT nearby price
1.9.491
1.8.429
KCBT Dec priceKCBT Dec price
CBT Dec priceCBT Dec price
Talking PointsTalking Points
Price
Wheat StocksWheat Stocks
Ending StocksEnding Stocks
U.S.
World
10-yearaverage ‘06 Std.
686585
418 183
6,540 4,3825.88
1,000
Million Bushels
Talking PointsTalking Points
Price
Wheat stocks
Argentina & AustraliaArgentina & Australia
Argentina & AustraliaArgentina & Australia
Million Bushels
2006/07 2005/06 5-yr avg.
Argentina 486 478 520538
805Australia 404 900 791
790717
KCBT Dec priceKCBT Dec price
Talking PointsTalking Points
Price
Wheat stocks
Argentina & Australia
Plantings & ’07 productionPlantings & ’07 production
SeedingsSeedingsClass 10-year avg. ‘06 Std. Guess
HRW 31.0 29.7 1.5 31.5 + 6.0%
SRW 8.5 7.4 1.2 7.9 + 6.5%
million acres
Other Spr 15.3 14.9 1.5 15.3 + 2.7%14.5
Winter 43.4 40.6 2.4 43.1 + 6.1%42.3
Total 61.8 57.3 3.8 60.2 + 5.1%59.4
HRW wheat production areaHRW wheat production area
SRW wheat production areaSRW wheat production area
Other Spring Wheat
YieldYieldClass 10-year avg. ‘06 Std.
HRW 37.6 31.4 4.3
SRW 55.5 62.2 4.1
Other Spr 35.5 33.2 4.1
Winter 44.2 41.7 2.6
Total 41.1 38.7 2.6 41.2
bushel/acre
Guess
43
40.6
Class 10-year avg. ‘06 Std. Guess
million bushels
ProductionProduction
HRW 908 682 170827
SRW 401 390 309354
Other Spr. 511 432 66492
Durham 94 53 1784
White 284 254 39283
Total 2,154 1,812 258 2,1002,005
2.342.162.10
ProductionProduction10-year avg. ‘06 Std. Guess
million bushels
World 21,690 21,500 840 22,70021.7 23.1
22.7
U.S. 2,154 1,812 258 2,1002,005 2.16
2.10
Talking PointsTalking Points
Price
Wheat stocks
Argentina & Australia
Plantings
Use – domestic & exportUse – domestic & export
U.S. useU.S. use
10-yearaverage ‘06 Std. Guess
1,028 925 80
Use
Export
Domestic 1,240 1,145 84
Total Use 2,268 2,070 134
1,165
2,173
Million Bushels
925
1,150
2,075
World useWorld use
10-yearaverage ‘06 Std. Guess
Million Bushels
22,50021,705 22,626 56522,113
Ending StocksEnding Stocks
U.S.
World
10-yearaverage ‘06 Std. Guess
685584
418 183
6,530 4,3825.87
1,000
Million Bushels
4,582
543
Talking PointsTalking Points
Price
Wheat Stocks
Argentina & Australia
Plantings
Use – Domestic & Exports
PricePrice
U.S. Wheat Supply and UseU.S. Wheat Supply and Use
Beginning stocksProduction Supply, TotalExports
Use, TotalEnding StocksAvg. farm price
571
1,812
2,488
925
2,080
418
$4.35
540
2,105
2,727
1,009
2,155
571
$3.42
Million Bushels
USDA06/07
USDA05/06
1.19 bb
U.S. Wheat Supply and UseU.S. Wheat Supply and Use
Beginning stocksProduction Supply, TotalExports
Use, TotalEnding StocksAvg. farm price
418
2,100
2,618
925
2,075
543
571
1,812
2,488
925
2,070
418
$4.35
Million Bushels
Kim’s07/08
USDA06/07
U.S. ending stocks & priceU.S. ending stocks & price
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Bill
ion
Bus
hels
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
0.540
$3.40
$4.30
0.440
Av ES 0.63Av Price $3.32
U.S. ending stocks & priceU.S. ending stocks & price
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Bill
ion
Bus
hels
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
0.540
$3.40
$4.30
0.440
Av ES 0.63Av $ $3.32
$4.35
0.418
U.S. Wheat Supply and UseU.S. Wheat Supply and Use
Beginning stocksProduction Supply, TotalExports
Use, TotalEnding StocksAvg. farm price
571
1,812
2,488
925
2,070
418
$4.35
Million BushelsKim’s07/08
USDA06/07
1.19 bb
418
2,100
2,618
925
2,075
543
$3.60
U.S. and world wheat stocks remain tight
540 m.b. ending stocks $3.40
430 m.b. ending stocks $4.30
Going into harvest, prices will be relatively high
Foreign crop determine ’07/08 mkting yr trend
Ethanol production changing market
Important pointsImportant points
