Where does my electricity come from?

Creating generation mixes

What information do I need?

1. Type of nearby generators(Power plants, dams, windmills, solar arrays)

2. Proportion – amount of total generation made up by each type

(40% type A, 30% type B, 30% type C)

Generally state lines used as borders

Guesses for Pennsylvania?

Solar Intensity

Wind Intensity

Precipitation

Coal Deposits

US Generation Mix

Coal, 52%

Oil, 3%

Gas, 16%

Other, 3%Hydro, 7%

Nuclear, 20%

Other: Solar, Wind, Biomass, Geothermal, etc

Guesses for Pennsylvania?

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Coal Oil Gas Nuc Hydro Other

Pennsylvania Generation Mix

Is that the whole story?

What if power plants near me don’t generate enough electricity to meet my needs?

Pennsylvania does, but what about California and New York?

Include Interstate Trading

Lots of electricity transfer in the United States, especially following deregulation in 1996

Currently, interstate electricity transfer ignored, but it’s a big part of the market 25% of California power is imported West Virginia exports 70% of theirs

These numbers have a significant impact, so new generation mixes, which include trading, are created for each state

Where Does the Electricity Come From?

-69.1

-11.9-3.3

-3.1

1.1

4.810.2

11.8

12.320.1

29.1

2000 Net Imports (TWh)

Source: EPA eGrid

0

595

246

802

718

246

486

875

805447

719

1229

1160

1133

1161

1258

1252

California Distances

Import-Export Model: Linear Optimization

Classic transportation/distribution problem

Using two matrices of data (27 x 27)1. Distances from exporters to importers2. Shipments of power from exporters to importers

Minimize the sum-product of these matrices The “cost” of moving electricity from exporters to importers

Subject to the following constraint All electricity in system needs to be “used” – each row/column in

shipments matrix must sum to net surplus/deficit calculated from EPA data

By changing the amounts in the shipments matrix

Completed OptimizationShowing Electricity Transactions (Shipments) in TWh

W E E E E E E E E W E E E E E E E E E W W E E E ECA OH VA FL NY NJ MA MD CN MN ID WI MS MI DC NC TN GA DE MO OR CO MX AR RI IA ME

E WV 30.1 12.1 10.5 3.4 56.2E PA 9.8 17.5 13.2 3.3 6.0 2.0 51.7

CN 7.8 13.5 11.8 10.8 44.0W WY 24.8 4.2 29.1E AL 23.6 5.2 28.8E IL 11.7 6.4 7.0 25.1W AZ 20.1 20.1E ND 1.9 12.0 3.3 1.7 18.8E IN 17.8 17.8W NM 9.2 3.1 12.3W MT 1.9 7.7 2.2 11.8W UT 10.2 10.2E SC 6.4 0.0 6.5E KY 2.1 3.1 5.2W NV 4.8 4.8E KS 2.5 1.8 4.4E NH 3.0 0.4 3.3W CA 2.1 2.1E NE 1.9 1.9W WA 1.1 1.1E SD 0.4 0.4E LA 0.4 0.4E OK 0.3 0.3E CT 0.3 0.3T TX 0.1 0.1

MX 0.1 0.1

E VT 0.0 0.0

69.1 31.4 30.1 23.6 17.7 17.5 16.5 15.4 13.9 13.5 11.9 11.8 11.5 10.8 10.5 9.9 9.1 8.4 6.0 3.6 3.3 3.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.7 0.4

E - Eastern Interconnect NOTE: Unshaded values are less than 1% of total electricity transferredW - Western InterconnectT - Texas Interconnect

Importers

Exp

ort

ers

California Transfers

4.8

10.2

9.220.1

24.8

2.1

The California Consumption Mix

• NOTE: Exporting states retain their original generation mixes

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Coal Oil Gas Nuc Hydro Other

Generation

Consumption