Where will the Energy for Hydrogen Production come from? · Where will the Energy for Hydrogen Production come from?-Status and Alternatives-Commissioned by the German Hydrogen and

Where will the Energy forHydrogen Production come from?-Status and Alternatives-

Commissioned by the German Hydrogen and Fuel Cell AssociationAuthors: J. Schindler, R. Wurster, M. Zerta, V. Blandow and W. Zittel of the Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH

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EHA (European Hydrogen Association)

Gulledelle 98B 1200 BrusselsBelgium

Telephone +32 2 7759077 Fax +32 2 7725044

E-mail [email protected] www.h2euro.org

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Copyright: 2006 Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH (LBST), Daimlerstrasse 15, 85521 Ottobrunn, Germany

The document in part or as a whole is copyright protected. Any exploitation beyond the limitations of the law of intellectual property rights is prohibited without the consent of LBST.This refers in particular to any reproduction, translation, microfilming and storage in electronic systems.

The user rights of the English version rest with the European Hydrogen Association (EHA).

Layout: Young-Sook Blandow, choidesign.de

In recent years, the question has been asked repeatedly “Where will the hydrogen come from?” This question is important, but can only be answered if one considers a more fundamental question “where will our energy come from in the coming decades?” Today it mainly comes from finite fossil and nuclear energy carriers; in the long term, it will come from renewable energies. The basic question of availability of raw energy materials is to be covered in this brochure and an answer proposed.

To do this, it is first necessary to clarify how long production rates can follow and meet the growing demand for crude oil, natural gas and coal. Furthermore, particularly for coal, we need to understand whether, to what extent and over which period of time, the separation and safe storage of carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels is possible – a basic requirement for carbon-based energy production. In addition the contribution that nuclear energy can realistically make needs to be assessed.

The potential of renewable energies to cover the energy demand is estimated, cost reductions in wind power and photovoltaics are presented, as well as the possible growth of regenerative vehicle fuels specifically in hydrogen terms.

In conclusion it can be stated that the expected reduction in oil production will leave a gap that cannot be filled by fossil and nuclear energy resources. On the other hand, renewable energies will significantly increase in the coming decades, however, for some time will make too small a contribution to close this gap. Moreover, no production or application solution should exclude a more efficient use of energy. It also shows that biofuels alone cannot keep the world moving and, therefore, that hydrogen will become an important fuel in the transport sector. Only when it is possible to develop electric automobiles with acceptable features (storage density, durability, cold start, price) will the use of hydrogen be unnecessary. In any case, from today’s viewpoint, this is highly improbable.

As a short-term introduction strategy for Germany for example, it is possible to use hydrogen by-product from the chemical industry for the first captive vehicle fleets. This hydrogen will today primarily have a thermal use and mainly be cofired with natural gas but could, in fact, be completely substituted by natural gas. In some locations, a total of over 500 million Nm³ of hydrogen can be made available, which would be enough to power at least 300,000 efficient fuel cell passenger cars.

Introduction

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Part �: From Primary Energy to Hydrogen

Part 1: The Primary Energy Supply

Table of Contents

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Conventional World Oil Production

Non-conventional Oil Production from Tar Sands in Canada

Future Oil Production from the Viewpoint of the International Energy Agencies

World Natural Gas Production

Single Field Analyses of Russian Natural Gas Production

World Coal Production – History and Scenario

Carbon Dioxide Sequestration and Storage Using Fossil Energy Sources

Worldwide Nuclear Power Station Capacities Forecast 1975 – 2004 of IAEA on World Nuclear Power Station Capacities

World Uranium Resources

LBST Scenario

IEA Scenario (IEA World Energy Outlook)

Worldwide Installations by 2030

Various Forecasts on Development of Wind Power

Contribution of Renewable Energy Sources and Usage

A Possible World Energy Scenario

From Primary Energy to Hydrogen

Technical Potential of Various Biofuels in the EU 25

Technical Potential for Hydrogen from Renewable Power in the EU 25

Production per Hectare and Year for Various Fuels in the Transport Sector Annual Passenger Car Mileage: 12,000 km

Cost Reduction for Renewable Energies

Fuel Costs “Well to Tank”

Fuel Costs and Greenhouse Gas Emissions “Well to Tank” Fuel Costs and Greenhouse Gas Emissions “Well to Wheel”

The Roadmap of the European HyWays Project (1)


Abbreviations

6

7

9

10

11

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16

17

18

19

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*)ASPO = Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas; an association mainly of geologists who formerly were active in oil and gas exploration

Source: Data - IHS Energy, BP �00�Forecast - LBST �00� (based on ASPO* scenario)

The illustration shows the historic trend in world oil production and its probable development in the future. The production is almost at a peak and will clearly decrease in the coming decades – the maximum crude oil production represents a decisive turning point.

A multitude of evidence supports this theses: Since 1980 we use more oil than we find each year and the gap is growing ever larger. More and more production regions have already exceeded their maximum production. This applies in particular to all the large old fields, which still make a significant contribution to world oil production. There are also clear signs that the oil-rich countries of the Middle East and the countries of the former Soviet Union cannot further extend their production.

This is all in the face of the expectation of a further increase in worldwide demand, as highlighted in the IEA scenarios. The looming supply gaps will lead to serious distortions in the world economy. Peak Oil represents a structural interruption.

The search for sustainable structures in energy supply can no longer be put off. There is a concern that there is not enough time remaining to organize a smooth transition to a post-fossil world.

6

Supply Situation: Oil

Conventional World Oil Production

The oil resources which are tied to very heavy oils, such as Canadian oil sands or those in Venezuela, on a quantitative basis come close to the Arabian oil reserves. However, it cannot be concluded from this that oil from oil sands will replace the missing conventional crude oil. The following must be considered:

(1) This oil is only available in the soil in very small concentrations. Utilization requires significant mining activities. Within the best layers the concentration is around 20 %.

(2) The separation and purification of the oil uses a large amount of energy and water; the mining process is very slow and is more similar to the mining process for ores than conventional oil production. A large amount of hydrogen is required for the separation of sulphur and preparation of the oil. This is extracted from natural gas.

(3) The lead times for projects are very long; the investments are high. For example, to develop a new mine with an extraction rate of 200 kb/day, around USD 5-10 billion must be invested.

(4) The CO2 emissions from petrol from oil sands are comparable with those from coal.

(5) The use of natural gas to process oil sands is increasingly in competition with direct natural gas usage.

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The illustration shows the historical and predicted development of Canadian oil production. Conventional oil production has decreased since 1970. Several finds in the deep ocean to the east of Newfoundland brought a temporary reprieve. The oil production from oil sands today represents 40 %. However, only around half of the extracted bitumen is processed into synthetic crude oil in suitable refineries. In doing this, around 10 % of the energy content of the bitumen is lost. Natural gas is also required in this process.

The expansion plans raise expectations that by the year �0�0 around �.� million barrels of bitumen can be produced each day. From these half will be further processed into crude oil. When compared with the declining production of crude oil, overall the available oil will remain constant or increase slightly. Including bitumen production, today ’s production of 2.5 Mb/day can be increased to just under 4 Mb/day. This increase corresponds to just under 2 % of worldwide oil production today. The decrease in oil production in the USA is already greater, so that oil production in North America as a whole will continue to decrease, in spite of the increase in Canadian production. The oil sand production is already considered on page 6 for OECD North America.

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Data source: • 197�-�00� data National Energy Board CDA • 1960-197� data US-DoE-Energy Information Admistration • �006-Estimate by NEB August, �006 • �007-�0�0 Forecast, tar sands based on CERI-study, October �00� • Conventional and heavy oil based on LBST estimate

At first glance, the IEA scenarios show the future of oil supply as optimistic. However, when analysing the declarations in detail, it becomes apparent that an increase in production is only possible if

• the existing oil reserves are actually as large as reported,

• the existing reserves can be developed as quickly as hoped,

• new oil production technologies permit a significantly better yield of (all) oil fields, and

• much more new oil is discovered.

With respect to this IEA states:• “The reliability and accuracy of reserve estimates

is of growing concern for all who are involved in the oil industry” (WEO 2004, p. 104)

• “The rate at which remaining ultimate resources can be converted to reserves, and the cost of doing so, is, however, very uncertain” (WEO 2004, p. 95)

• “By 2030, most oil production worldwide will come from capacity that is yet to be built” (WEO 2004, p. 103)

• “In the low resource case, conventional production peaks around 2015” (WEO 2004, p. 102)

Data source: IEA �00�


Future Oil Extraction from the Viewpoint of the International Energy Agency (IEA)

Between 2003 and 2010: 30 – 45 Mb/d additional production capacity?

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The scenario assumes that the world gas production can still significantly increase and will only reach its maximum in the year �0�0. This is based on the assumption that the production decrease in North America and Europe will be over-compensated by an increase in production in Russia and the Middle East. This requires significant and timely investments in these regions.

However, in spite of this optimistic picture, the future of gas production is rather overshadowed by risks. A further problem for production expansion in Russia and the Middle East is the requirement to significantly expand the infrastructure for the transport of liquefied natural gas. These investments require considerable resources and time. Only by doing this will it be possible to even out the imbalances between previously unconnected regional markets – in particular, North America, Eurasia/North Africa and the Middle East.

The scenario shows the possible development based on today’s estimate of reserve situations and describes an upper limit. The actual development in the coming decades can of course be affected by regional bottlenecks.

10

Supply Situation: Natural Gas

World Natural Gas Production

Data: IHS Energy, BP �00�Forecast: LBST �00� (based on ASPO scenario)

This and the following illustration show the risks of future gas supply using Russia as an example.

The illustration describes the development of Russian gas production and the contribution of the large gas fields to total production. Most of the large producing fields show a decline in production. In the past, this decline could be balanced by the addition of new, smaller fields. To continue this in the future too, further new already-discovered fields must be connected in time (see illustration on the right). These fields are further to the east or north of existing pipelines in regions that are difficult to develop.

If the new fields are connected in time, the production can be increased by around 1 % each year in the coming years. In comparison, an annual production increase of 2 % over a longer period does not seem realistic.


Single Field Analyses of Russian Natural Gas

Data source: Laherrere, LBST

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This illustration shows what can happen if the new fields are not connected in time.

If the connection is delayed by just two years due to difficulties in developing the new fields and high capital requirements, the result is a slump in production for the next ten years. These types of delays are not at all improbable; they can be observed in many large projects in difficult regions (for example, in the Sachalin Peninsula).

This would have serious consequences for the European gas supply. A decrease in gas supply would be unavoidable due to the simultaneous decrease in domestic production. The prices for natural gas would also probably increase dramatically.

This also shows that realistically, there is no scope to introduce natural gas as a fuel for the transport sector on a grand scale.

1�


Single Field Analyses of Russian Natural Gas

Data source: Laherrere, LBST

The illustration shows the historic development of the production of hard coal and lignite. (Germany contributes around one third of worldwide lignite production.)

Based on the current data on worldwide coal reserves, a scenario of possible future production is depicted. The aggregated production follows a logistical curve (adjusted to previous production and to reserves). The result is that the annual worldwide coal production could be increased by 60 % and would reach its maximum in around 2050.

In theory, the decrease in crude oil and natural gas could, therefore, partly be offset by an increase in coal usage for primary energy. In the conversion to usable end energy, in particular, to fuel, significantly higher losses are generated with coal, so that replacement is clearly more difficult.

The specific CO� emissions of hard and lignite coal are significantly higher than with crude oil and natural gas (for Europe in g CO� per kWh: Natural gas �0�, petrol/diesel �6�, hard coal ��6 and lignite coal �1�). So for each energy unit of natural gas that is replaced by hydrogen obtained from coal or by liquid fuel, between around 700 and 800 g CO2 /kWh are emitted – in other words, 3.5 to 4 times as much (efficiency factor is around 50 % or 45 % respectively). A sequestration of the CO2 produced is, therefore, inevitable; otherwise the use of coal would be completely irresponsible from a climate protection viewpoint. If technically feasible, this does however reduce the available energy share. So far, there is no environmentally-friendly, reliable proven way to store CO2 for a long period.

Supply Situation: Coal

World Coal Production – History and Scenario

1�

1�

Supply Situation: Coal

Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage with Usage of Fossil Energy Sources

Data source: ECOFYS �00�

It is in principle possible to capture the greenhouse gases produced when fossil energy sources such as coal, oil, and natural gas are used for energy purposes, and store them in suitable geological formations. A primary suitable solution would be old oil and gas fields either on land or “offshore” under the seabed. There are two approaches to the separation of carbon dioxide: Collecting the waste gases after the combustion process or the upstream “separation” (reformation) of fossil fuels into hydrogen and carbon dioxide. In particular, for coal usage – and here lies the main potential for this technology – the reformation (gasification) of the coal is considered, since a highly efficient Combined Cycle Power Plant (CCPP) power station is only possible with a gaseous fuel. While conventional power stations can only achieve a maximum efficiency level of 49 %, CCPP power stations can reach 60 %.Large-scale production of hydrogen is a precursor of CO2-free usage of coal. Hydrogen, which in principle can also be used as a fuel.

There are two significant hurdles to consider: technical/economic aspects and the question of availability of secure storage capacity. Until now there have only been rough estimates of storage capacities (see illustration) where the lowest value represents the highest probability, whereas the optimistic scenario contains some highly speculative assumptions.

Using the potential of high to medium probability as a base, the reservoirs in Europe would be filled after 8 to 19 years, if the total carbon dioxide emissions could be collected. If only the emissions from central power generation were taken into account, the reservoirs would be available for between 23 and 55 years.

However, these are only theoretical values that highlight the potential in principle. The geographical location of the stores and power stations sites are not taken into account here. Not every country has storage capacities and the transport of carbon dioxide over hundreds or thousands of kilometres will be expensive and require energy input. Aside from this, the time span also plays an important role. In fact, all new construction of large coal-fired power stations should consider their geographical vicinity to suitable CO2 reservoirs. And although large power stations have been planned for lifetimes of several decades, it currently cannot be observed that the vicinity to CO2 storage locations is an important location criterion.

The age structure of the nuclear reactors operating worldwide today essentially determines the future role of nuclear energy. Assuming an average reactor lifespan of 40 years, by the year 2030, 75 % of the reactors installed today must be disconnected from the grid. If the number of reactors is to remain constant, 14 reactors must be built and put into operation each year throughout this time period.

However, worldwide, only around 28 reactors are under construction, and these could start operating in the next 5 to 7 years. Eleven of these reactors have been “under construction” for more than 20 years. Under these circumstances, it is not possible to talk of a renaissance in nuclear energy.

If the contribution of nuclear energy were to be considerably increased, the availability of uranium ore would soon reach its limit. Today the contribution of nuclear energy to primary energy production is around 6 % (whereby power is converted into primary energy with a factor of 3); the share of power generation is around 18 %-exactly the same as the contribution of hydropower.

The only a l ternat ive is a move towards a plutonium economy using fast breeder reactors. This is a technology that has not yet been tested commercially, and it is unlikely that it will become available for the next one or two decades.

Data source: IAEA June �00�Scenario: LBST �00�

Supply Situation: Nuclear Energy

Worldwide Nuclear Power Station Capacities

The ambitious forecasts of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on the global development of nuclear power so far never came true.

Remarkable is the position of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which in its scenarios assumes an unchanging role of nuclear power in the future.

Forecasts 197� – �00� by IAEA on World Nuclear Power Capacities

Data source: IAEAGraphics: LBST

1�

16

Supply Situation: Nuclear Energy

World Uranium Resources

Against the background of necessary construction and the limited uranium resources, it is highly improbable that nuclear energy will play a larger role in the future.

Even China’s expansion plans do not change this estimate. By 2020 China plans around 30 GW of nuclear power capacity. With an annual expansion requirement in power production capacity of around 14 GW, these 30 GW would cover only around 3.5-4 % of the Chinese power requirements in 2020.

Therefore, nuclear energy does not seem to be a medium or long-term option for generating hydrogen – apart from those few cases where the share of nuclear energy in power generation is particularly high and power can be made available in low load periods, as for example, in France.

Nuclear energy proponents foresee the use of 4th generation nuclear reactors after 2030, which produce hydrogen directly with a high temperature process.

Data source: BGR, �00�

The picture in the LBST scenario shows the future availability of fossil and nuclear energy sources.

According to today’s knowledge, a strong decline in oil production after peak production is highly probable. The reason lies in the oil production technologies used today which aim to exhaust the fields as quickly as possible. When the peak production has been reached a quick drop of the production rates is experienced.

The peak production for oil, and subsequently for natural gas, will leave a noticeable gap in world energy supply, which cannot be filled by other fossil primary energy sources.

The coal reserves known to us today with a range of coverage of around 160 years, will indeed permit increasing production until around �0�0. However, one should take into account that the data quality is poorer than for crude oil. Since 1992, China has been reporting exactly the same reserve figures each year. In this period around 20 % of the “proven” reserves already have been used up.

China currently produces the most coal worldwide (almost double that of the USA). However, China’s reserves are only half those of the USA. For Canada, almost exactly the same reserve figures are published today as in 1986.

In its report to the World Energy Council in �00�, Germany devalued the “proven” hard coal reserves by 99 % (from �� bln to 18� mln tonnes), the lignite reserves by 8� % (from �� bln to 6.� bln tonnes).

Increased use of coal results in increased carbon dioxide emissions.

Data source: Oil, Gas, Coal- Nuclear Senario, LBST �00�

Contribution of Fossil and Nuclear

Energy Sources: LBST Scenario

17

The core statements of the IEA World Energy Outlook are:

• The energy supply of the coming 20 years will continue the trend of the past 20 years.

• There will be no restrictions on oil, gas, or coal, whether due to scarcity of resources or climate protection reasons.

• There is no reason to bring renewable energies to the market – the share of so-called New Renewable Energies (solar, wind, geothermal) will be around 2 % in 2030.

• Only the share of traditional biomass usage will increase following the trend of the past decades.

The following points are completely ignored:

• Fossil energies are increasingly difficult to exploit and therefore are becoming more expensive.

• Environmental reasons will put increasing pressure on restricting the burning of coal, oil, and gas.

• Renewable energies show an average growth rate of far more than 10 % per year over the past 15 years, and have become increasingly cost-efficient; the price gap between conventional and non-conventional energy supply is becoming ever smaller.

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Contribution of Fossil and Nuclear Energy Sources

IEA Scenario (World Energy Outlook)

Data source: Historical data - BP Statistical Review of World Energy Outlook - International Energy Agency �00�, �00�

LBST – Alternative World Energy Outlook (AWEO �00�)

Worldwide installations by �0�0

Data source: LBST- “Alternative World Energy Outlook �00�”

The LBST scenario “AWEO �00�” describes the possible worldwide growth in renewable energies up to �0�0, classified according to energy sources. LBST is of the opinion that this scenario describes the upper limit of a possible expansion in the use of renewable energies in the coming decades. This is not a forecast of a probable development. It is also not an assertion that an expansion based on the scenario would be desirable for each energy source.

The illustration shows the possible power generation from renewable energy sources in �0�0 according to the AWEO �00� scenario of LBST. In this scenario, almost 3,400 Mtoe of end energy (power, heat, and fuel) is produced in 2030. The generated amount of power is around 20,400 TWhe (this is more than the amount produced worldwide today of 16,500 TWhe).

Heat generation is mainly provided by solar-thermal and geothermal plants, as well as by biomass (biomass has the largest share of these alternative heat fuels with 94 %).

Hydropower and geothermal energy show the smallest growth. Hydropower has already been used intensively for decades. By 2030, over 40 % of the (ecologically sustainable) potential will have been developed.

The solar-thermal power generation potential (SOT) for Asia was not investigated in detail. If considered, the total potential of SOT would significantly increase again.

19

The illustration shows different worldwide forecasts vs actual development for wind power

All forecasts by the IEA on the installation of wind power generation capacities have proven to be too pessimistic in the past. They have consistently lagged behind the actual development (comparable to how the IEA apparently systematical ly underestimates the future contribution of Renewable Energies).

Wind power will probably exceed 1 % of worldwide power generation for the first time in 2007.

In China, renewable power generation capacity should reach around 60 GW by 2020; of this, about one half will come from wind energy.

The yellow curve shows the assumptions of the LBST-AWEO 2005 scenarios.

The scenario “Windforce 12” by Greenpeace describes the expansion of wind power that is necessary if around 10 % of the predicted power consumption is to be covered by wind energy in 2020.

The Danish consulting company BTM forecasts an installed capacity of 120 GW by 2020.

�0


Alternative Forecasts for the Development of Wind Power

Data source: LBST, July �006

Almost every renewable energy source has the potential to cover the present world power demand of around 18,000 TWh/a (this corresponds to 1,��0 Mtoe in the above illustration).

Solar power (either from photovoltaics or from solar thermal power stations – SOT) has by far the highest potential. It exceeds the world power demand by a factor of ten.

The power generation potential of biomass is very uncertain due to competition concerning land usage and other biomass applications.

Since 1990, renewable power production has increased by �0 %, the largest part of this growth coming from hydropower and biomass. Other renewable sources are still only considered at a very low level, although their potential is big as is their growth over the past decades. In contrast, renewable power production has a share of 18 % of the total power generation of around 18,000 TWh.

Today, the renewable share of primary energy production is around 15-16 %.


Contribution of Renewable Energy Sources and Usage

Data source: LBST Alternative World Energy Outlook �00�

�1

Most world energy scenarios for the next �0 to �0 years are built-on three premises:t

(1) An increase in demand is forecast based on population growth and economic development.

(2) Fossil energies are sufficient to cover this increase in demand.

(3) Growth rates for renewable energies are very low due to their high costs when compared with fossil energies.

These assumptions overlook fundamental aspects:

(1) Climate change is speeding up. This increases the pressure to change to fuels with lower emissions.

(2) Fossil fuels are limited: The peak production of crude oil is imminent; for natural gas, in one to two decades; and the coal resources are not sufficient to fill the gaps.

(3) In a global context, nuclear energy does not make a noticeable contribution.

(4) In contrast, renewable energy technologies have an important and lasting potential. Market introduction needs time; however it is advancing, accompanied by continuous technical and economic advances.

The scenario shown in the illustration considers these aspects. The availability of oil and gas will probably decrease quicker than renewable energy capacity can be built up. Therefore, it is possible that the total energy supply will first decrease in the coming decades.

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A Possible World Energy Scenario

Data source: LBST Alternative World Energy Outlook �00�

Hydrogen as a fuel. Up to now, only the options for the future generation of primary energy have been considered. This is the basis. Hereafter, the options for the production of hydrogen will be discussed. This mainly considers which energy chain has the lowest conversion losses and the largest supply potential. In addition, the consideration of competitive usage will be decisive. Society will have to decide how much of the limited energy supply can be used for each final application.

A fundamental difference between the energy supply structures today and in the future must be considered. Today, fuels with small losses are generated from primary energy, whereas power is generated with high conversion losses of 50-70 %. In the long-term, the relationship will reverse: power from renewable energies will gain the status of a primary energy that is generated with small losses; in contrast, high losses will have to be accepted with the generation of fuels.

From Primary Energy to Hydrogen

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The illustration shows the possible contribution of biogenic fuels to meet European fuel demand. The depicted potentials do not consider the usage competition of biomass for stationary power and heat uses.

The energy demand for the transport sector in EU 25 is just over 14,000 PJ/a in 2002, including around 12,000 PJ/a for road transport.

In the best case, the biomass potential accepted as reliable for the EU 25 allows, depending on the type of fuel produced (plant oil ester, ethanol, BTL, biogas or hydrogen), a coverage of the fuel demand for road traffic of between 5 % (RME), 25 % (biogas, BTL, ethanol from lingo cellulose) and almost 30 % (high-pressure hydrogen).

This shows that even “2nd generation” biofuels are not capable of replacing large amounts of fossil fuels in the long term. If a comparable mobility rate, particularly for individual transport, is to be maintained, it must be possible to generate automotive fuels from more sources than just biomass. With its primary energy flexibility, hydrogen could be an ideal solution in this case, in particular, when mobility cannot be guaranteed with electric power, directly or indirectly (battery).

With a long-term substitution of crude oil, there is still between 70 % and 95 % to be replaced by other sources… or to be saved.

��

Potential of Renewables for Transportation Fuels from Renewable Energies

Technical Potential of Various Biofuels in the EU ��

Data compilation and graphics: LBST1) IEA-Statistics �001-�00��) Gross (without the energy efforts for the supply of the fuels e.g. the use of external energy for the ethanol plant)

The illustration shows the possible contribution from fuels generated from renewable power to meet the European fuel demands.

In contrast to the available biomass potentials in EU 25, the renewable power potentials to generate fuels are significantly larger. The production of high-pressure hydrogen and liquid hydrogen is shown.

Both the fuel demand for the total road transport as well as the demand for other transport types can be completely covered even with the conservative scenario. In the optimistic scenario, the coverage of the demand is clearly exceeded (+40 %).

However, there are restrictions in that, for renewable power, there is usage competition with stationary applications. Therefore, it is not clear what breakdown will finally take place.

In any case, the importance of hydrogen as a fuel is clear. If renewable energy sources only are taken into account, hydrogen will dominate. Those with the greatest potential point to electrical energy. Energy that is stored as hydrogen could be widely used throughout the automotive sector.

The possible role of alternative fuels from fossil sources remains to be investigated. Natural gas will probably not play a significant role as a fuel. Finally there are CTL (Coal-to-Liquids) or hydrogen produced from coal with CCS for automotive fuels.

On the way to a world with optimum energy utilization, it would be sensible to use renewable energies for power generation and fossil energies directly for fuel generation. The losses are higher with power generation using fossil energy sources. This would however require that coal-fired power stations were decommissioned and the coal used for fuel generation.

Regenerative Potentials for Fuels from Renewable Energies

Technical Potentials for Hydrogen from Renewable Power in EU ��

Data compilation and graphics: LBST 1) IEA-Statistics �001-�00� �) still exploitable within the EU

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The illustration shows a comparison of specific energetic area yields for biogenic fuels with hydrogen, which is generated from wind and photovoltaic power.

Even in the worst case, hydrogen from wind power performs at least as well as from biogas (and significantly better than all other biogenic fuels).

Hydrogen from photovoltaics surpasses all competitors in its area-based efficiency by more than a factor of � (Hydrogen from wind or biogas) and by a factor of 6-7 (all other biofuels).

The “onshore wind” technology and, also photovoltaics, although restricted, have an advantage in that the land can also be used for the cultivation of biomasses.

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Regenerative Potential for Fuels from Renewable Energies

Production per Hectare and Year for Various Fuels in the Transport Sector

*) more than 99 % of the land area can still be used for other purposes e. g. agriculture

Number of autos (hybrid), that can be supplied per hectare

Annual automobile mileage: 1�,000 km

The illustration shows how many automobiles can be provided with fuel per hectare, based on fuel, generation path, and drive technology.

The most efficient alternative is hydrogen for fuel cell automobiles:

• Biogenic hydrogen in fuel cell automobiles is as good as biogas in hybrid automobiles with a combustion engine.

• Hydrogen from wind power in fuel cell vehicles generates at least 1.5 times as much yield per hectare.

• Hydrogen from photovoltaics is 6-7 times more efficient per hectare than the biogenic paths.

In view of the previously illustrated potentials for biogenic fuels and fuels produced from electricity, the medium and long-term advantages and opportunities of hydrogen are obvious.

*) more than 99 % of the land area can still be used for other purposes e. g. agriculture

The illustration shows the change in power costs for power generation from renewable energy sources in the past and the predicted cost reduction potential in the future. The power generation costs are depicted versus the installed capacities.

The power generation costs are shown in €/kWhel based on the cumulated installed capacity in GWel for photovoltaics and wind power.

Significant cost reductions are expected, in particular for photovoltaics (PV), which is still at the start of widespread commercialization. A significant reduction in power costs has already been observed. In the illustration, the change in power costs is shown for various local characteristics. 1000 kWh per kW peak capacity or one year equivalent full load operation period of 1000 h/a is reached e. g. in Bavaria. A equivalent full load operation period of 2000 h/a is achieved in North Africa. Today more than 5 GW are installed. In a study carried out by the German Aerospace Center (DLR), an installed capacity of around 200 GW is predicted for 2020 in the “Solar Energy Economy (SEE)” scenario.

A further cost reduction is also to be expected for wind power.

In the illustration, the trend in power generation costs is shown for various location qualities. By the end of 2005, more than 59 GWel were installed. In a study carried out by the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) and Greenpeace (“Windforce 12”), an installed capacity of around 200 GW is expected by 2010. For 2025, around 2000 GW are expected.

Costs

Cost Reduction for Renewable Energies

Number of autos (hybrid), that can be supplied per hectare

Annual automobile mileage: 1�,000 km

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Data source: EWEA, May �00�Data compilation and graphics: LBST

The illustration shows the fuel production costs at independent gas stations for the reference fuels petrol and diesel as well as for natural gas (and fuels produced from natural gas) and the various renewable produced fuels (each without tax).

Natural gas can be produced for around 1/2 to 2/3 of the cost of petrol and diesel. The production costs for all other alternative fuels are almost double. High-pressure hydrogen from natural gas and from waste wood as well as Fischer Tropsch diesel from short rotation forestry have comparable prices. Ethanol can be at the same price or less, high-pressure hydrogen from short rotation forestry is somewhat more expensive, high-pressure hydrogen from renewable power costs up to 50 % more.

A detailed analysis of costs shows, for example, that the generation of Fischer-Tropsch diesel from short rotation forestry is relatively expensive, whereas hydrogen from short rotation forestry ex.conversion plants is clearly more cost efficient.

Hydrogen looses this advantage before it reaches the gas station due to the more expensive infrastructure requirements for storage, transport, distribution, and the gas station.

However, the well-to-wheel costs discussed later are more meaningful.

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Costs

Fuel Costs “Well to Tank”

Crude oil based gasoline and diesel: price ex filling station without taxes in June �006

If the costs of the various fuels are compared “Well to Wheel“, a different picture is obtained if the efficient fuel cell drive train for the hydrogen vehicles is included.

Costs are given for vehicle km travelled, which range from just under to a maximum of 50 % above the costs of conventional petrol and diesel for almost all renewable hydrogen paths.

High-pressure hydrogen from natural gas can enable specific fuel costs that are up to 40 % lower than for conventional petrol or diesel.

The greenhouse gas emissions from hydrogen extracted from natural gas and used in fuel cell vehicles are up to 50 % lower than those for petrol and diesel. The greenhouse gas emissions from hydrogen produced from renewable sources are 1/7 or less.

Mid- to long-term, hydrogen can enable vehicles to achieve “zero” local emissions and drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions (to zero) at a comparable cost.

Costs

Fuel Costs and Greenhouse Gas Emissions – Supply and Use

This illustration compares fuel costs at independent gas stations with the greenhouse gas emissions of the fuels.

First generation biogenic fuels (RME, ethanol) show a high range of variation in emissions and sometimes only lie just under the reference fuels.

Second generation biogenic fuels (BTL, methanol, and ethanol from lingo cellulose) as well as hydrogen from renewable power bring a clear reduction in emissions.

Costs

Fuel Costs and Greenhouse Gas Emissions “Source-to-Wheel”

Reference vehicle: VW GolfNon-hybrid

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A European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap up to �0�0 has been developed as part of the EU-funded Project HyWays. 10 countries are contributing national views on which hydrogen sources should be produced at what point in time. These 10 viewpoints are summarized as a representative Roadmap for Europe. Both stationary and mobile hydrogen applications are considered, whereby the emphasis is on the promising use of hydrogen in road transport.

The driving forces for this action are reduction of climate gases, the security of energy supply, and international competitiveness.

The assessment of the German partners from industry, politics, and science who are associated with the “HyWays” project are given below. In particular the results of the discussion on the hydrogen production pathways for Germany:

• Transition phase after 2010: Significant contribution of hydrogen as by-product of chemical processes. Additionally, production through onsite steam reforming of natural gas or through electrolysis. Consumption centers are developing in highly populated areas and for hydrogen transport liquid or pressurized gaseous transport by trailer is playing a major role.

• After 2020 growing demand will expand the possibilities for distributed and central hydrogen production. Another increasingly important option will be the electrolytic production through renewable energy or the electricity grid. Depending on hydrogen penetration rates and the feasibility of CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS), natural gas and coal in central plants could contribute to CO2 neutral hydrogen production. At this point distribution by pipeline will start to play an important role. Distributed production of hydrogen through steam reforming and electrolysis will be more prominent, especially in remote country areas.

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Hydrogen as a Fuel: Realization


Data source: LBST �00�

Abbreviations

• After 2030, hydrogen will make a significant contribution as an automotive fuel and will achieve a noticeable role in stationary applications. If the sequestration of carbon dioxide is established on an industrial scale, central hydrogen production from fossil energies using steam reforming (natural gas or coal gasification) will dominate production in Germany – depending on the long-term price development of these energy sources.

• Although competition in various application areas (transport, power, heat) will grow, the share of renewable hydrogen will also grow. The most fundamental renewable production path will be wind energy (on- and offshore). This will be generated using the power grid and converted either centrally or locally using electrolysis. This supply is supplemented by hydrogen from biomass gasification. Other renewable energy sources (geothermal) could help to meet the growing hydrogen demand. The import of hydrogen (for

example, from Norway using a European pipeline network) may be an option. The transport of hydrogen will use pipelines or liquid hydrogen trailers, depending on demand and location of final application.

In particular, a comparison of alternative supply paths in combination with various drive train technologies – in a “Well-to-Wheel” approach – shows the potential of renewable concepts compared to improved conventional approaches with regard to energy usage, climate gas emissions, and costs.

Hydrogen as a Fuel: Realization

The Roadmap of the European HyWays Project (�)

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API Measure of viscosity of crude oil ASPO Association for the Study of Peak Oil AWEO Alternative World Energy Outlook (Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik) Barrel 1 barrel of oil = 159 Liters (kb = Kilobarrels, Mb = Millions of Barrels, Gb = Billions of Barrels) BGR Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften

und Rohstoffe)BTL Biomass to Liquids BTM Dry Biomass CTL Coal to Liquid CCS Carbon Capture Sequestration CGH� Compressed Hydrogen EUR Estimated Ultimate Recovery EWWA European World Economy Archive (Europäisches Weltwirtschaftsarchiv) GW Gigawatt (1 GW = 1000 Megawatt = 109 Watt) GuD Combined Cycle Gas and Steam Power Station (Gas and Steam Turbines in Combination) IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency (Internationale Atomenergieagentur) IEA International Energy Agency (Internationale Energieagentur) IHS Industry Database LH� Liquid Hydrogen Nm� Standard Cubic Meter Mtoe Million Tonnes Crude Oil Equivalent (1 toe = 11630 kWh) Peak Oil Peak of Worldwide Oil Production PV Photovoltaics RME Raps-Methyl-Ester (Biodiesel) SOT Solarthermal Power Production SEE Solar Energy Economy Tcf Trillion Cubic Feet WEO World Energy Outlook (Energy Report by IEA)

European Hydrogen Association (EHA)

Gulledelle 98B 1�00 BrusselsBelgium

Telephone +�� 77�9077Fax +�� 77��0��

E-mail info@h�euro.orgInternet www.h�euro.org

Documents

Where will the Energy for Hydrogen Production come from? · Where will the Energy for Hydrogen Production come from?-Status and Alternatives-Commissioned by the German Hydrogen and