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Who in the Baltic Sea Region is affected by
Climate Change?
ASTRA Stakeholder Workshop 26 October 2006
Gdansk
Klaus EisenackPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
ASTRAs preliminary results of vulnerable sectors
Klaus Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
OverviewObjective of talk: give an overview of some potential
exposure units and provide terminology
Objective of workshop: assessment by participants, brainstorming on adaptation options
Urban area Coastline Water
Energy Transport Tourism
Klaus Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
General ObservationsClimate Change is mainly framed in terms of GHG mitigation and impacts
Since knowledge about the extend of many climate change impacts on the local scale is quantitatively uncertain…
… adaptation has to focus on the sensitivity of exposure units and increasing adaptive capacity.
Klaus Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Vulnerability AssessmentWho is vulnerable to what?
Exposure unite.g. urban area, coastline, water supply, energy sector, transportation, tourism
Impacte.g. flooding, sea level rise, less snow
exposure sensitivity adaptive capacity
Mitigation
Adaptation
Klaus Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Urban AreaUrban settlements, inhabitants and infrastructureExposure Units• Private and public buildings• Places, cultural heritage• Communication infrastructure
(consequently: rescue services)• Waste treatment
Potential Impacts• River floods: extreme precipitation
events, snowmelt, increasedaverage streamflow, risky timeshifting from spring to winter
• Storm surges: wind,tides / sea level rise
Klaus Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Urban AreaExposure Units• Private and public buildings• Places, cultural heritage• Population
Potential Impacts• Hail and wind storms
Klaus Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Urban AreaExposure Units• Population• In particular: old, very young, chronically ill
Potential Impacts• More frequent heat waves:
deaths in summer• Less deaths in winter• Air quality problems (formation of
pollutants due to higher temperatureand sunlight)
Klaus Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Urban AreaFurther Exposure Units• Waste treatment• Infrastructure (communication, transport, water, energy, etc.)
Further Potential Impacts• Landslides• Rainfall, humidity, heat, insulation: changed stress on buildings
Klaus Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
CoastlineCoastal shores and shores of large rivers and lakes
Exposure Units:• Coastal infrastructure• Flood protection infrastructure• Coastal ecosystems• Cliffs
Impacts• Sea level rise• Storm surges• River floods• Coastal erosion,
changed sedimentation patterns
Klaus Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
WaterWater for drinking, irrigation and industrial useExposure Units• Water utilities• Water supply systems and infrastructure• Sewage systems• Public health• Water intensive economic sectors
Impacts:• Flooding: pollution, damage to infrastructure• Sea level rise: salinization• Higher temperatures (with pollution): quality, eutrophication, algae
blooms• Increasing average streamflow and extremes, changed timing of water
supply (snowmelt), droughts: changed supply• Increasing temperatures, irrigation during droughts: increasing demand
Klaus Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
EnergyEnergy for household, public and industrial useExposure Units• Transmission lines• Hydropower• Wind power• Energy utilities
Impacts• Storms and hail (transmission lines, wind energy)• Changed timing and increased
average streamflow• Flooding: damage to infrastructure• Higher temperatures (cooling water, efficiency
of thermal electric generation,transmission capabilities)
• Higher temperatures and urban heat islands:increased energy demand in summer,decreased in winter
Klaus Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
TransportTransportation sector and infrastructureExposure Units• Harbours (transport conditions)• Airports (accidents, delays,
indirect effects from rescheduling)• Railway (delays,
indirect effects from rescheduling)• Road traffic (accidents, winter maintenance)• Transport infrastructure
Impacts• Extremes: precipitation, rainstorms• Extreme temperatures (mechanical failure)• Humidity (fog), snow, sea ice• Wind conditions• Floods
Klaus Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
TourismLocal tourism business and tourism industry
Exposure Units• Winter tourism / summer tourism
• Coastal tourist facilities
• Dependency on coastal resources
Impacts• More precipitation and
changed sunshine patterns
• Warmer summers,warmer water (and changed water quality)
• Warmer winter: snow conditions
• Sea level rise
• Flooding
• Changes in alternative destinations
Klaus Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
AdaptationWhat is the adaptive capacity of exposure units?
Who is responsible for managing them?
Who can support them? Are there strategic alliances?
Who will hinder them? What can be done to overcome barriers?
Are national programmes needed?
Are local key-actors needed?
Klaus Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Thank You for Your Attention!
Klaus Eisenack
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Telegraphenberg C4
14473 Potsdam
Germany
Email:
Klaus Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Make a ChoiceUrban Area: Urban settlements, inhabitants and infrastructure
Coastline: Coastal shores and shores of large rivers and lakes
Water: Water for drinking, irrigation and industrial use
Energy: Energy for household, public and industrial use
Transport: Transportation sector and infrastructure
Tourism: Local tourism business and tourism industry
