Who Makes The Who Makes The Pros?Pros?What are the chances?What are the chances?

What are the odds?What are the odds?

What good young athlete doesn't dream of playing pro What good young athlete doesn't dream of playing pro sports? The allure is intoxicating, especially for the sports? The allure is intoxicating, especially for the talented, and it can warp judgment. talented, and it can warp judgment.

In fact, high school players who reach the pros are In fact, high school players who reach the pros are almost as rare as lottery winners, so virtually every almost as rare as lottery winners, so virtually every student-athlete should have a backup: an education. student-athlete should have a backup: an education. That's a key message of the movie Coach Carter, yet That's a key message of the movie Coach Carter, yet it's easy to ignore in a society that focuses more on it's easy to ignore in a society that focuses more on immediate gains than enduring ones. immediate gains than enduring ones.

So what are the probabilities of a pro career? Below So what are the probabilities of a pro career? Below are some numbers, from the NCAA. They are some numbers, from the NCAA. They show the show the chance of getting chance of getting drafteddrafted by a major league team, by a major league team, not of not of playingplaying, so the true odds are even lower, so the true odds are even lower: :

Men’s BasketballMen’s Basketball

High school senior players who go on to play High school senior players who go on to play NCAA men's basketball: Less than one in 35, NCAA men's basketball: Less than one in 35, or 2.9 percent.or 2.9 percent.

NCAA senior players drafted by an NBA team: NCAA senior players drafted by an NBA team: Less than one in 75, or 1.3 percent.Less than one in 75, or 1.3 percent.

High school senior players eventually drafted High school senior players eventually drafted by an NBA team: About three in 10,000, or by an NBA team: About three in 10,000, or 0.03 percent. 0.03 percent.

That's roughly the chance of getting four of a That's roughly the chance of getting four of a kind in the first round of draw poker.kind in the first round of draw poker.

Women’s BasketballWomen’s Basketball

High school senior players who go on to play High school senior players who go on to play NCAA women's basketball: About three in 100, NCAA women's basketball: About three in 100, or 3.1 percent.or 3.1 percent.

NCAA senior players drafted by a WNBA team: NCAA senior players drafted by a WNBA team: About one in 100, or 1.0 percent. About one in 100, or 1.0 percent.

High school senior players eventually drafted High school senior players eventually drafted by a WNBA team: About one in 5,000, or 0.02 by a WNBA team: About one in 5,000, or 0.02 percent.percent.

That's the chance that a killer asteroid will That's the chance that a killer asteroid will destroy civilization in the next century, destroy civilization in the next century, according to Princeton astronomers. according to Princeton astronomers.

FootballFootball

High school senior players who go on to play High school senior players who go on to play NCAA men's football: About one in 17, or 5.8 NCAA men's football: About one in 17, or 5.8 percent.percent.

NCAA senior players drafted by an NFL team: NCAA senior players drafted by an NFL team: About one in 50, or 2.0 percent.About one in 50, or 2.0 percent.

High school senior players eventually drafted High school senior players eventually drafted by an NFL team: About nine in 10,000, or 0.09 by an NFL team: About nine in 10,000, or 0.09 percent.percent.

That's about the chance you have an IQ above That's about the chance you have an IQ above 150, as measured by the Stanford-Binet test. 150, as measured by the Stanford-Binet test. The average IQ of Ph.D. students is 130. The average IQ of Ph.D. students is 130.

BaseballBaseball High school senior players who go on to play NCAA men`s baseball: High school senior players who go on to play NCAA men`s baseball:

Less than three in 50, or 5.6 percentLess than three in 50, or 5.6 percent NCAA senior players drafted by a Major League Baseball (MLB) NCAA senior players drafted by a Major League Baseball (MLB)

team: Less than eleven in 100, or 10.5 percent.team: Less than eleven in 100, or 10.5 percent. High school senior players eventually drafted by an MLB team: High school senior players eventually drafted by an MLB team:

About one in 200, or 0.5 percent. About one in 200, or 0.5 percent. Drafted baseball players almost always go to a minor league Drafted baseball players almost always go to a minor league

team. These teams abound; there are over 150 of them, team. These teams abound; there are over 150 of them, compared to 30 in the majors. The big leagues have 750 compared to 30 in the majors. The big leagues have 750 players, yet the 2004 draft alone took 1,500. players, yet the 2004 draft alone took 1,500.

Hence some estimate that only one in 33 minor leaguers ever Hence some estimate that only one in 33 minor leaguers ever makes it to the pros. If that's correct, the chance of a high school makes it to the pros. If that's correct, the chance of a high school player making the big leagues is one in 6,600, or 0.015 percent. player making the big leagues is one in 6,600, or 0.015 percent.

That's roughly the chance of a thief guessing your PIN number on That's roughly the chance of a thief guessing your PIN number on the first try.the first try.

Men’s Ice HockeyMen’s Ice Hockey

High school senior players who go on to play High school senior players who go on to play NCAA men's ice hockey: Less than thirteen in NCAA men's ice hockey: Less than thirteen in 100, or about 12.9 percent. 100, or about 12.9 percent.

NCAA senior players drafted by an NHL team: NCAA senior players drafted by an NHL team: Less than 1 in 24, or 4.1 percent.Less than 1 in 24, or 4.1 percent.

High school senior players eventually drafted High school senior players eventually drafted by an NHL team: About one in 250, or 0.4 by an NHL team: About one in 250, or 0.4 percent. percent.

That's the chance of flipping heads eight times That's the chance of flipping heads eight times in a row. in a row.

Men’s SoccerMen’s Soccer

High school senior players who go on to play NCAA men's soccer: High school senior players who go on to play NCAA men's soccer: Less than three in 50, or 5.7 percent. Less than three in 50, or 5.7 percent.

NCAA senior players drafted by a Major League Soccer (MLS) NCAA senior players drafted by a Major League Soccer (MLS) team: Less than one in 50, or 1.9 percent. team: Less than one in 50, or 1.9 percent.

High school senior players eventually drafted by an MLS team: High school senior players eventually drafted by an MLS team: About one in 1,250, or 0.08 percent. About one in 1,250, or 0.08 percent.

That's about the chance that tomorrow will be February 29.That's about the chance that tomorrow will be February 29.

from: http://www.charactercenter.com/Insight/InsightMarch2.htmfrom: http://www.charactercenter.com/Insight/InsightMarch2.htm sources: www.ncaa.org/research/, www.dailynebraskan.com, and sources: www.ncaa.org/research/, www.dailynebraskan.com, and

the Josephson Institute's PVWH Sportsmanship Newsleter, Feb. the Josephson Institute's PVWH Sportsmanship Newsleter, Feb. 0505

NCAA Study ConclusionNCAA Study Conclusion

““Sadly though, it comes as a rude surprise to many Sadly though, it comes as a rude surprise to many athletes yearning for a professional sports career to athletes yearning for a professional sports career to learn that the odds against success are astronomically learn that the odds against success are astronomically high. Approximately 1 percent of NCAA men’s high. Approximately 1 percent of NCAA men’s basketball players and 2 percent of NCAA football basketball players and 2 percent of NCAA football players are drafted by NBA or NFL teams – and just players are drafted by NBA or NFL teams – and just being drafted is no assurance of a successful being drafted is no assurance of a successful professional career. “Student-athletes” whose sole and professional career. “Student-athletes” whose sole and now failed objective was to make the pros suddenly now failed objective was to make the pros suddenly find themselves in a world that demands skills their find themselves in a world that demands skills their universities did not require them to learn.”universities did not require them to learn.” reprinted from reprinted from www.ncaa.orgwww.ncaa.org