Who Sets the Tone? What Role did the Media play in Influencing Elite Opinion in the build up to the Dayton Accords (Aug 1, 1995-Dec 14, 1995)

Yehudah Sunshine

Media in Peace & Conflict Studies

Prof S.M. Rubenstein

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Introduction

The Bosnian civil war, from 1992-1995 claimed the lives of between 100,000-110,000

people with over two million displaced by the ensuing violence the war brought.1 As a centrally

located post-cold war conflict, the Bosnian civil war presented an opportunity for western

powers to end a humanitarian disaster exploding at their doorstep. Thus the war’s cessation was a

prime policy aim of the Clinton White House, as well as NATO and the European Union.2

While attempting to promote economic stabilization and appease long held ethnic

tensions3, the end of the Bosnian conflict as a subset of the broader Yugoslavian decomposition

illustrates the quintessential confluence of interest between the media and the explicit foreign

policy aims of the Clinton White House, EU and NATO.4 Surprising or not to the humble

observer when there is unified political will supported by military and diplomatic credibility

media lenses reflect the realpolitik.5 If media intends to independently ‘set the tone’ of the

political debate, the government’s policy must prove to be ineffective, or unsuccessful. Without

the systematic lapse of credibility and success in achieving policy objectives the media lacks the

leverage necessary for a categorical shift in public opinion concerning military intervention of

the cessation thereof.

1 Bosnia war dead figure announced. (2007, June 21). Retrieved March 17, 2015, from http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6228152.stm2 McMahon, P., & Western, J. (2009). The Death of Dayton: How to Stop Bosnia from Falling Apart. Foreign Affairs, 88(5), 77.3 See Kaplan, R. (1993). Old Serbia and Albania: Balkan "West Bank" In Balkan ghosts: A journey through history (pp. 29-48). New York, New York: St. Martin's Press. For better insight in to the historic tensions to extensive to accurately be expressed in this work4 Auerbach, Y. (n.d.). Media Framing and Foreign Policy: The Elite Press Vis-a-vis US Policy in Bosnia, 1992-95. Journal of Peace Research, p 875 Darley, W. (2005). War Policy, Public Support, and the Media (pp. 121). Ft. Belvoir: Defense Technical Information Center.

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This paper aims to delve into the relationships interconnecting the media, western

political interest and public opinion.6 By using the Dayton Accords as a case study in how the

media influences, propagates and descents with government policy I believe a paradigm can be

formed in which a more astute awareness of the impact of mainstream western media on elite

opinion can observed. 7 To limit the scope of this broad topic this paper will focus primarily on

the dates of August 1 1995 to December 14 1995. By evaluating a selection of articles from the

New York Times and the Guardian this paper intends to assess the impact of main stream

western media in facilitating a coherent shift or evolution of policy amongst elites, in opinion

and policy in the time before, and ending with the signing of the Dayton Accords on Dec 14.

But why Bosnia you might ask? What does this scenario bring to the table in regards to

media influence on elite policy making? Is it more thrilling, or compelling to the world then

Darfur; more impactful or grotesque then the atrocities of Cambodia? To be honest there are

three major factors which make the Bosnian civil war a prime archetype to study the role and

influence of media. The first factor which gives Bosnian conflict its pedestal of precedence is its

proximity to Western Europe.8 As a cataclysmic humanitarian disaster literally happening a

stone’s throw from the gates of Vienna, the overarching impact of the broader Yugoslavian

conflict had numerous strategic ramifications to its neighbors, chief amongst them refugee

overflow and the economic backlash it ensues.9

6 As represented by the US, NATO and EU in addition to UN and eventually the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia 7 Represented by the New York Times and the Guardian as well as to a lesser degree the Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal8 Sarajevo is just 775 KM from downtown Vienna9 Kalyvas, S., & Sambanis, N. (2005). Bosnia's Civil War: Origins and Violence Dynamics. In Bosnia's Civil War: Origins and Violence Dynamics (p. Chapter 7). Washington, DC: World Bank.

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The second factor which makes the Bosnian civil war worthy of further analysis is its

place on the timeline in relation to the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Occurring between April

6 1992 and November 21 1995, literally in the immediate fall out of the USSR the Bosnian civil

war presented battlefield quintessential to the future make up of a post-cold war Europe.10 The

consequences of sustained humanitarian strife in a region in dire need of economic revitalization

presents a great example in how the media can reflect or descent on broader policy which can

easily determine the long term political agenda of the region.11

The third factor which makes the Bosnian civil war a fascinating case study into the

intertwined relationships between the media, elite opinion and policy is the sheer quantity of

qualitative and quantitative research concerning the observation of influence in the conflict itself.

By having a broader sample set of relatable and diverse data the observer is given the

opportunity to search the depths of understanding to create a new more nuance worldview more

reflective of the reality in which we all live.

History

The history of the conflict in the Balkans transcends the civil war which encompassed its

borders from august 6 1992 to November 21 1995. Rife with ethnic antagonism which dates

backs centuries, Bosnia also presented a seeming paradox. As the nexus of Europe and Asia the

entire region has reflected a delicate balance of multiculturalism, while standing strong as the

10 TIMELINE: What happened during the war in Bosnia? (2008, July 21). Retrieved March 17, 2015, from http://www.reuters.com/article/2008/07/21/us-warcrimes-karadzic-bosnia-idUSL216444642008072111 Bloch-Elkon, Y. (2007). Studying the Media, Public Opinion, and Foreign Policy in International Crises: The United States and the Bosnian Crisis, 1992 1995. The Harvard International Journal of Press/Politics, 32

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bastion of nationalistic identity.12 However, the breakup of the former soviet republic of

Yugoslavia presented a new wave of unprecedented ethnic violence and genocide at a scale

unseen to a generation of Europeans. The implosion of Yugoslavia changed the map of the

Balkans forever; no longer were the illusions of multiethnic peace and harmony presented in

mass. Instead the climate had changed and an environment of hate and murder, rape and

conquest soon set the tone for dire consequences on all sides.13 By some estimates, at the

cessation of hostilities on November 21 1995, between 100,000 and 110,000 lay dead, primarily

Bosnian Muslim by a count of nearly two to one in relation to their Serb compatriots.14

The Bosnian civil war reflected a horrifying covalence of humanitarian issues with a

broad reaching aftermath. Chief amongst these humanitarian woes were the accusation of war

crimes, genocide and sexual violence by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former

Yugoslavia 15 against Serbs and Bosnians and Croats.16 As the Balkan conflict represented a dire

and problematic zone of influence, western media and elite power player began to take an

increased notice in the region by May 1992. However after four separate failed attempts and

ending the whole scale violence and decimation being laid unto Bosnia, the US, EU and NATO

seem almost powerless in preventing further loss of live. The ineffectiveness of theses failed

peace efforts “was becoming a cancer on Clinton’s entire foreign policy-spreading and eating

away at its credibility.”17 12 Kaplan, R. (1993). Old Serbia and Albania: Balkan "West Bank" In Balkan ghosts: A journey through history (pp. 30). New York, New York: St. Martin's Press.13 Kalyvas, S., & Sambanis, N. (2005). Bosnia's Civil War: Origins and Violence Dynamics. In Bosnia's Civil War: Origins and Violence Dynamics (Pg. 213). Washington, DC: World Bank.14 Bosnia war dead figure announced. (2007, June 21). Retrieved March 17, 2015, from http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6228152.stm15 Here after known simply as the ICTY16 ICTY - TPIY: In Numbers. (2014, February 1). Retrieved March 17, 2015, from http://www.icty.org/si"d/1058617 Auerbach, Y. (n.d.). Media Framing and Foreign Policy: The Elite Press Vis-a-vis US Policy in Bosnia, 1992-95. Journal of Peace Research, pg. 88

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This all changed in August of 1995 when Croat and NATO forces scored major military

victories, forcing the Serbian leadership to consider a cessation of active military hostilities. By

forcing the hand of the various belligerent the numerous parties involved began what became

known as the Dayton Conference. Stretching from November 1 to 21 1995, the Dayton

conference provided, although in many ways abstractly, the outline for a viable and contentious

end to the violence which encompassed the region for three years.18 The conference brought the

US, NATO and the EU to the table along with a loose configuration of; Serbian leadership, Croat

and Bosnian Muslim representation in an attempt at building a sustainable future from the ashes

of the past.

Research Questions

1) To what extent did the New York Times and the Guardian influence elite response in

the build up to the Dayton Accords, from August 1 1995- December 14 1995?

2) Did US Foreign Policy influence the stance of the media in perpetuating the tenuous

nature of the Dayton Accords?

3) Who is the primary source of information of the media? Does this limit the editorial

power and influence of the media on public opinion?

4) Is the idea of media influence on public opinion a broad overstatement or projection?

Methodology

In giving respect to the scale and scope of the Bosnia civil war, this paper can only focus

on a small window in time. By limiting its timeline this paper intends to gauge media influence

18 TIMELINE: What happened during the war in Bosnia? (2008, July 21). Retrieved March 17, 2015, from http://www.reuters.com/article/2008/07/21/us-warcrimes-karadzic-bosnia-idUSL2164446420080721

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from August 1 1995 to December 14 1995, a mere glimpse at a critical crossroads of twentieth

century geopolitical history. To refine its reach even more so this work will focus primarily on

the New York Times and the Guardian of London, with additional insights from the Washington

Post and Wall Street Journal.19.

In searching the archives I found 77 New York Times and 68 Guardian articles, during

the four and a half month window (8/1/95-12/14/95) which directly mentioned the words Bosnia

and Dayton. By creating a data set of one hundred and fifty five articles, further analysis proved

effective in representing some clear correlations between the media sources and policy frames

and viewpoints. The frames represented in this limited data set as a general rule correspond with

the results of the broader studies carried out by Yehudith Auerback and Yaeli Block Elkon,

chiefly that media tends to wield a strong hand only when government policy proves ineffective

or unsuccessful.20

Analysis of Data and Theoretical approach

To simplify results and imbue a greater sense of clarity and cohesion this section will be

broken into three parts. The first and second sections will discuss the views expressed in the New

York Times and the Guardian respectively, giving special focus to: the tonality, players and key

stances both politically and theoretically which act as focal points of media coverage. The third

section will cull this data along with the broader trends in academic literature, to present an

increasingly nuanced perspective on the role and relationships played by the media, western

political interests and public opinion.

19 These additional sources and their analysis will pull primarily from “Media Framing and Foreign Policy: The Elite Press Vis-a-vis US Policy In Bosnia, 1992-95” and “Studying the Media, Public Opinion, and Foreign Policy in International Crises: The United States and the Bosnian Crisis, 1992 1995”20 Ibid

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New York Times

The New York Times as the progenitor of influential western media used its pulpit, in the

window from 8/1/95-12/14-95 to project a world view in line with the security/world order

frame. This frame entailed a critical tone often seen as an “important explanatory role in the

realm of public opinion.”21 By acting as an required intermediary the New York Times was able

to “highlight core US interests and values threatened by the developments in Bosnia- that is,

using mainly critical positions and emphasizing humanitarian and security meta-frames- the elite

press may have pushed the Clinton administration to a more active policy.”22 As both a vocal

critic and an optimistic participant for sound foreign policy the New York Times acted with clear

peacebuilding intentions in its coverage of the Dayton Accords.

On the day after the Dayton Accords were signed the New York Times23 presented the

brutal reality of the situation as it stood. In creating a perception of reality all too keen on how

contentious any peace could be after literally years of wanton rape and decimation, the times

give the broader readership a glimpse into just how fragile the long term prospects of peace were

during the cold November days of 1995. “Out of such confusion, it seems a civil society could

now grow. Equally a new and perhaps yet more savage conflict could erupt.”24

The Times repeatedly emphasized how the Clinton White House saw the Dayton process

as a means to solidify its policy image and thus often took credit for accomplishments perceived

to be shared quasi-victories by all those humbled parties involved. The French foreign minister

21 Auerbach, Y. (n.d.). Media Framing and Foreign Policy: The Elite Press Vis-a-vis US Policy in Bosnia, 1992-95. Journal of Peace Research, pg.9622 Ibid23 Hereafter referred to as the Times24 Cohen, R. (1995, November 22). BALKAN ACCORD: THE IMPLICATIONS; an

Imperfect Peace. New York Times.

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was quoted as saying “One cannot call it an American peace, even if President Clinton and the

Americans have tried to pull the blanket over to their side.”25 In these expressing of tonality the

Times clearly illustrates how objectives may have been reached but not without bruised egos and

political compromise.

As the great military philosopher, Carl van Clausewitz said “It’s not what people do, the

physical motions they go through, that are crucial, but the institutions, practices conventions that

they make.”26 In fitting with this ideology, regardless of who took credit for the anticipated

cessation of violence, all shared in the collective responsibility in its complexity in application

and massive cost in implementation.27

By expressing how personality driven negotiations are, the Times used its role as a

vehicle for “War Journalism’, an outgrowth of the so-called “erosion of the regime of

objectivity”.28 By intertwining its core objectives with the reality of the situation the New York

Times built a image of the Bosnian civil war. Defined by a worldview preoccupied with the

fleeting aspirations of a lasting Balkan peace, this reality often stressed how a lack of policy

guidance could result in further “Genocide in our times, genocide on the continent of Europe.”29

The Guardian

25 Whitney, C. (1995, November 23). BALKAN ACCORD: THE EUROPEANS; Success Has Many Fathers among Allies. New York Times.

26 Walzer, M. (1977). Just and unjust wars: A moral argument with historical illustrations (3rd ed., pp. 24 New York, New York: Basic Books.

27 McMahon, P., & Western, J. (2009). The Death of Dayton: How to Stop Bosnia from Falling Apart. Foreign Affairs, 88(5), 6928 Hackett, R. (2006, January 1). Is Peace Journalism Possible? Three Frameworks for

Assessing Structure and Agency in News Media. Retrieved March 13, 2015. Pg 929 Cohen, R. (1995, November 16). 2 Towns, Symbols of Serbian Killings, Snag Balkan

Talks. New York Times.

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In the Guardian’s coverage of the events leading to the Dayton Accords a reality is

presented in which the prospects of a long term peace which could fall apart with the slightest

misstep are very real. A cautious understanding of the humanitarian crisis finally on its

downswing after three years of hard fought battles, hundreds of thousands dead and millions

displaced begins to take measure and the tonality of coverage expresses this ever-present

desperation for an end to hostilities which claimed the lives of over 100,000 people.30

The desperation of the realpolitik is constant in those most affected by its reach. This

view, that consolation with life vs death without is often surfaced in the coverage of the

Guardian in the time leading to the Dayton conference. “If someone really believes in a

multiethnic state he has to do something about it.”31 In acting as a conduit for the ideals of peace

journalism32 the Guardian time and time again expressed the consequences of failure and if the

right choices were made the outgrowths of success. In a November 22 1995 article the Guardian

noted how “a failure to reach it [a deal] would have plunged its victims straight back into

disaster.”33

By presenting a worldview cautiously optimistic of the challenges ahead, with keen

awareness of the strife that remains, the Guardian built a broader conception of reality in Bosnia

after years of devastating conflict. As a tool for critique and reflection of the broader held

realities of public opinion, the guardian wistfully used its opportunity in the rise to the Dayton

30 Bosnia war dead figure announced. (2007, June 21). Retrieved March 17, 2015, from http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6228152.stm

31 Borger, J. (1995, November 20). Bosnian rifts exposed as talks wind up. The Guardian.32 Here after Peace Journalism is in reference to the definition from Lynch, J. (2007, January 1). What is Peace Journalism. Retrieved March 17, 2015, from http://www.cco.regener-online.de/2007_2/pdf/lynch.pdf as ““when editors and reporters make choices - of what to report, and how to report it - that create opportunities for society at large to consider and value non-violent responses to conflict”33 The Peace Treaty of Dayton, Ohio. (1995, November 22). The Guardian.

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agreement to paint an image of a region requiring strong policy in words and action. Using the

“Propaganda Model” the editorial staff of the Guardian skillfully blended: the pressures of

consumer culture, their own desires for ad revenue and the inherent spin of pertinent military

information coming from government sources, to illuminate a world view nuance in its nature,

and conscious in its output.34 This is what the actualized nature of War or Peace Journalism. By

creating a conceptual reality, based on the fact on the ground, with the active editorial desire to

emphasize change, positive transformation and the prospects, based on conditional political will,

for long term prosperity at best and a continued cessation of hostilities at worse.

Synthesis of Sources

The New York Times and the Guardian present two distinct case studies in advocacy

journalism with a range of desired outcomes. Both sources over the four and a half month

window expressed numerous instances in which their tone conveyed a sense that history was

knocking at the gates, but only those with strong political will, interpretation and reserve could

withstand the ever present onslaught of in decision. For the media can only attempt to change the

tide of events when effective and cohesive policy of strong leadership is lacking.35

The Times tended to take a more critical viewpoint of the contentious membership of the

Serbian delegation to Dayton as a catalyst for inherent displeasure, while the Guardian tended to

be more astute in the perception that US policy legacies were being established in each pen

stroke.36 Both sources expressed the quintessential nature of peace journalism in their “choices -

34 Hackett, R. (2006, January 1). Is Peace Journalism Possible? Three Frameworks for Assessing Structure and Agency in News Media. Retrieved March 13, 2015. Pg 3

35 Bloch-Elkon, Y. (2007). Studying the Media, Public Opinion, and Foreign Policy in International Crises: The United States and the Bosnian Crisis, 1992 1995. The Harvard International Journal of Press/Politics, 2236 The Peace Treaty of Dayton, Ohio. (1995, November 22). The Guardian.

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of what to report, and how to report it - that create opportunities for society at large to consider

and value non-violent responses to conflict”37 In presenting a world view not fully accepting of

its leadership the Times and Guarding propagate a reality in which the opportunity for lasting

peace, though difficult to sustain is a very real possibility.38

Literature Review

For this section of the paper I would like to compare the perspectives expressed in “War

Policy, Public Support and the Media” by William Darley to “The Press and the Myth of War”

by Chris Hedges. After attempting to determine to legitimacy of the media in its true impact on

public opinion I intend to elaborate on the impact of the media in the lead up to the Dayton

Accords and the cessation of violence following the end of the Bosnian civil war.

In the debate over what effect, if any the media has on influencing elite and public

opinion no true consensus has be made to date. To those like Chris Hedges, the reality of the

matter speaks for itself. The media contrary to popular belief possess minimal ability to spin and

alter the facts on the ground.39 Mr. Hedges propagates a vision in which the limits of the media

are dependent on accessibility to information. In “the Myth…” Hedges relays the fact that if the

market is saturated with information the ability to change the real facts on the ground becomes

increasingly difficult. Thus in the world view of Hedges and others40 the media is merely the

filter to which information is presented to the world not the creator of the information itself.

37 Lynch, J. (2007, January 1). What is Peace Journalism. Retrieved March 17, 2015, from http://www.cco.regener-online.de/2007_2/pdf/lynch.pdf38 The Peace Treaty of Dayton, Ohio. (1995, November 22). The Guardian.39 Hedges, C. (2003, April 21). The Press and the Myths of War. Retrieved March 15,

2015, from http://www.thenation.com/article/press-and-myths-war40 Bloch-Elkon, Y. (2007). Studying the Media, Public Opinion, and Foreign Policy in International Crises: The United States and the Bosnian Crisis, 1992 1995. The Harvard International Journal of Press/Politics, 22

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According to Darley the reality in concerns to the real influence of media on public

opinion is nuanced. “War policy, Public Support and the Media” reflects a worldview that at the

breakwater of public opinion sits the covalence of media, government and the reality on the

ground.41 In creating a worldview where media can facilitate social change, contingent on the

boundaries which government policy and public opinion permit Darley envisions a model of

consciousness awareness of the media. This reality, in which the media is but one of a number of

active factors in determining public opinion creates a balanced perspective needed at filtering

through the barrage of literature conceding the origins of public opinion.

In the rise of the Dayton accords it seems utterly simplistic to think that media plays

minimal effect in influencing broad public opinion. In this rejection of the approach of Hedges

the reality of media influence, in combination with a multitude of other factors chiefly the

effectiveness of leadership and successful achievement of policy objectives.42 As such the world

view of Darley and others, that media is one of many necessary factors used in interpreting the

complexity of events as it plays out on the world stage seems to illustrate an a nuance needed to

internalize the long term and short term ramifications of the Dayton Peace Process.

Conclusion

The Bosnian civil war, and its eventual cessation presented western media a prime

opportunity to narrate a historic series of events. But, just as any bystander can’t help but

reaching into the field of play, the media is ever aware of its ability to change perception of

reality and effect public opinion. In the build up to the Dayton Accords the New York Times, the

41 Darley, W. (2005). War Policy, Public Support, and the Media (pp. 121-133). Ft. Belvoir: Defense Technical Information Center.

42 Auerbach, Y. (n.d.). Media Framing and Foreign Policy: The Elite Press Vis-a-vis US Policy in Bosnia, 1992-95. Journal of Peace Research pg 88

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Guardian and others used the stage to show the world just how contentious the negotiations were.

In their collective insights into how the rival factions of Serbs and Croats dealt with the pressures

of western influence43, the Guardian and the New York Times often used framing techniques to

illiterate the security and humanitarian dynamic of the Bosnian crisis.44

By effectively depicting the reality on the ground, while emphasizing the delicacy of

international politics the New York Times and The Guardian illustrated a supreme command of

the aims of peace journalism. In building a security dynamic depending on broad government

support, along with effective long reaching policies and public satisfaction the New York Times

and the Guardian presented a stinging reality on the ground while attempting to facilitate change

in a small air force base in Ohio. Undoubtedly their effects influenced policy makers and the

broader constituency “that a bad peace [is still] better then war”45

43 As Realized by the Clinton White House and NATO44 Auerbach, Y. (n.d.). Media Framing and Foreign Policy: The Elite Press Vis-a-vis US Policy in Bosnia, 1992-95. Journal of Peace Research, pg 8345 Borger, J. (1995, November 20). Bosnian rifts exposed as talks wind up. The Guardian

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Darley, W. (2005). War Policy, Public Support, and the Media (pp. 121-133). Ft. Belvoir:

Defense Technical Information Center.

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