Who Was the Greatest f1

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WHO WAS THE GREATEST F1 DRIVER?

July 18, 2014 byf1metrics inDriver Rankings,Mathematical models 14 Comments

Arguments over whether Schumacher was greater than Fangio are not new.

Im going to present something that is new: the results of a mathematical model designed to

answer who was the greatest Formula 1 driver of all time.

You may disagree with any attempt to answer this question on principle, and thats okay by me.

I hope you will nevertheless find this to be an interesting approach.

The first attempt to rank drivers using a model was in 2009 by Eichenberger and Stadelmann

(paperhereand pdfhere). Without giving too much away, my model agrees with theirs on

several of the top ranked drivers. However, many of the previous models results dont pass a

sanity check. Ukyo Katayama is ranked ahead of Nigel Mansell, Erik Comas is ranked ahead of

Ayrton Senna, Arturo Merzario is ranked ahead of Jack Brabham, Mark Blundell is ranked

ahead of Niki Lauda, and Mike Hawthorn is ranked 5th best of all time. Understandably,the

model didnt get a warm reception in online forums.
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It is therefore impossible to know how Fangio would perform in a modern Formula 1 car, were

he to be magically transported to the present day. Similarly, it is impossible to know how

Schumacher would perform, were he to be magically transported back to Fangios heyday. In

that sense, there can be nodirectcomparisons made between different eras.We cant hope to

sensibly answer the question: Who would win out of Schumacher and Fangio racing the samecar in the same era?

What we cando is make direct comparisons between drivers in the same era by comparing them

to their teammates. Since drivers typically have many different teammates across their careers,

we can obtain an estimate of how drivers rank relative to one another. We can then

comparerelativeperformances between drivers in different eras, where no direct comparison is

possible. An overall ranking list can then be constructed.

The model (in brief)It is difficult to directly compare Formula 1 drivers because they drive for different teams.

Differences in performance between the best and worst teams are typically larger than the

differences in performance between the best and worst drivers. If we want to compare

drivers betweenteams, we need to somehow correct for these differences. The goal is to estimate

how each year of the championship might have looked if everyone had been racing in an equally

good car.

The premise of my model is to assume that there are two main contributors to a drivers

performance in the championship: their driving performance and the performance of their

team(s). It is sensible to start with the simplest possible model, so I assume that these two

factors do not interact, even though they may interact in the real world (e.g., some cars may

better suit the driving styles of some drivers than others). For each driver in each team in each

season, I define:

Performance = Driver Performance + Team Performance.

Interestingly, once the model is fitted to the data, team performances account for 61% of the

variance in overall performances, while driver performances account for 39%. This is consistent

with the common wisdom that team performance is a more important factor than driver

performance in Formula 1.

As my measure for performance, I use a driversaverage scoring rate in each season. To

calculate this, I first exclude any races where a driver failed to finish due to a mechanical

problem or a problem outside of their control (e.g., a disqualification on technical grounds). Theremaining races those in which a driver finished or failed to finish d ue to a driver failure


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(using the same definition as I used fordriver-related DNFsin my previous post) are

called counting races.

Thescoring system in Formula 1has changed slightly across the years. To make fair

comparisons between eras, it is necessary to use the same scoring system in all years. I therefore

retroactively applied the10-6-4-3-2-1 scoring systemto all years, since this is a good

compromise to the systems used throughout the history of the sport. To allow the model to

differentiate between drivers who scored no points, I scored fractional points for lower

positions, going down by a factor of 10 for every 5 places, so 6th scores 1 point, 11th scores 0.1

points, 16th scores 0.01 points, etc. This makes a negligible difference for front-running drivers,

but separates the performances of backmarkers.

The scoring rate can potentially range from a minimum of 0 points per race to a maximum of 10

points per race. I therefore used a scoring functionS, which ranges from 0 to 10, to convert

performances to scoring rates:

Scoring Rate = S(Performance Competition Effect).

A competition effectwas included for each season that depends on the strength of the

drivers/teams in that season. There are only so many points available per race, so it is harder to

score points against a more competitive field and/or a larger field. The dependence of the

competition effect on the drivers/teams in each year requires a complicated mathematicalderivation, so I wont describe it in detail here.

In brief, the model looks at the scoring rates of each driver and their teammates in each year.

Using this, the model makes its best estimate of team performances and driver performances in

each year from 1950 to the present. Although quite simple, the model does a good job of fitting

the data it accounts for 82% of the variance in the data. For a full mathematical description of

the model, you can see the peer-reviewed paperhere,in theJournal of Quantitative Analysis in

Sports. For this blog post, I analyzed all data up to and including the 2014 British Grand

Prix. Note that the rankings in the published paper go up to the end of 2013, so some are

slightly different.

Using my model, I ranked all drivers on a single scale: equivalent performance in the

place of Sebastian Vettel in the 2013 Red Bull. For reference, Vettel scored 8.33 points

per race in 2013 (using the 10-6-4-3-2-1 system). A scoring rate >8.33 points per race is

considered more impressive than Vettels 2013 performance by the model, while a scoring rate


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All models should be as simple as possible and all models have their limitations, which must

be kept in mind when interpreting their results. This model is about the simplest you could

propose to reasonably address the question at hand. There are some important limitations.

The model does not explicitly account for changes in driver performance across the

career arc, so some drivers may benefit by comparison to teammates who are rookies or

well past their peak form.

The model excludes mechanical DNFs, so it ignores the fact that some drivers (especially

in the past) contributed to their own car failures through rough driving. This choice was

made because it is difficult to distinguish the effects of rough driving from bad luck.

The model does not account for team orders, team politics, or preferable treatment of

one driver, since it is impossible to know to what extent these affected race results.

The model does not attempt to attribute blame for crashes, since this would be highly

subjective (and impossible for many crashes in older races).

The top 60

Below, I list the top 60 drivers. I chose 60 because it allowed me to discuss the sports most

notable drivers, including all but three of the world champions (leaving out Giuseppe Farina in

85th, Mike Hawthorn in 86th, and Phil Hill in 136th). The ranking metric used is the peak

performance achieved by each driver, averaged over a period of 3 consecutive

years, after correcting for team and competition effects. This provides an estimate of a

drivers peak form. For each driver, the peak 3-year interval selected by the model is listed, as

well as the average points per race (ppr) after adjusting for team and competition effects.


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The results are not particularly sensitive to the choice of 3 consecutive years; the top 5 drivers in

the list appear in the exact same order based on peak performances over 4 or 5 consecutive

years. Some drivers were not active for 3 consecutive years and therefore have no ranking.

Notable absences are Jose Froilan Gonzalez (ranked 43rd of all time by 1-year peak), Peter

Revson (ranked 53rd by 1-year peak), and Stefan Bellof (ranked 83rd by 1-year peak).

To help understand the rankings, I have included statistical comparisons to teammates. These

include qualifying, race, and points statistics across rounds they raced together. For race

statistics (e.g., driver X beat driver Y 3-2 in races), I refer only to races in which neither driver

suffered a mechanical or other non-driver DNF. In cases where mechanical DNFs played an

important role in the match up, I have mentioned it.

60. Jacques Laffite (1975-1977, 5.92 ppr)

Starting the list is Jacques Laffite, whose name is synonymous with the Ligier team, where he

spent 9 of his 13 years in the sport. During his career, he edged out talented teammates

includingPatrick Depailler, Didier Pironi (ranked 122nd), and Rene Arnoux (ranked 112th).

However, he was stretched beyond his limits by bothKeke RosbergandEddie Cheever.

59. Romain Grosjean (2012-2014, 6.02 ppr)

Romain Grosjean arrived in Formula 1 in 2009 as a brief replacement for Nelson Piquet Jr. at

Renault. He was quickly whack-a-mole-d by teammateFernando Alonso. Without a seat for

2010, he returned to prove himself in junior series. He got a second chance with Lotus in 2012
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and was fortunate to be retained by the team after a season filled with careless accidents. Across

2012-2013, he was soundly beaten byKimi Raikkonen, but showed improved judgement and

speed towards the end of 2013, matching Raikkonens raceperformances in the latter half of the

season. This year, he has showed that he may deserve a shot in a better car, beating teammate

Pastor Maldonado (ranked 81st) 8-1 in qualifying, 2-1 in races, and 8-0 in points.

58. Timo Glock (2008-2010, 6.03 ppr)

Glock had an unusual Formula 1 career. After a very successful career in junior series (130

points in 4 seasons, usingthis junior driver performance metricI previously posted), he was

signed as test driver for Jordan in 2004. When regular driver Giorgio Pantano failed to impress,

Glock made a four-race appearance, with 7th on debut ahead of teammateNick Heidfeldin 8th.

Without a regular seat for 2005, Glock spent the year in Champ Car. In 2006 and 2007, he

competed in GP2, winning the title on the latter attempt. In 2008, he was back in Formula 1,

alongside the prodigiously fastJarno Trulliat Toyota. Trulli dominated qualifying 14-4, but hadonly a small edge on Glock in races, finishing ahead 9-7 in races and 31-25 in points. In 2009,

Trulli again outqualified Glock, this time 11-4, but Glock held the advantage 8-5 in races and 24-

22.5 in points.
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Glock then crashed heavily in qualifying for the 2009 Japanese Grand Prix, ending his season

prematurely. With an uncertain future in Formula 1, Glock signed for Virgin in 2010. His career

did not recover from this move from 2010-2012 he raced for backmarkers Virgin and

Marussia. Although he did not achieve meaningful results, he had the edge on each of his

teammates. In 2010, he beat Lucas di Grassi 17-2 in qualifying and 4-3 in races. In 2011, he beat

Jerome dAmbrosio 14-5 in qualifying and 7-6 in races. In 2012, he beat Charles Pic 14-5 in

qualifying and 7-5 in races.

57. Jack Brabham (1959-1961, 6.08 ppr)

The first big surprise is the models low ranking of Jack Brabham, who has been ranked between

12th and 18th by experts in Autosport and F1 Racing. Two factors account for the discrepancy.
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First, Brabhams legendary status is

partly due to achievements as a racer-mechanic, including winning a championship in his own

car. In terms of legacy, there is perhaps no greater driver in the sports history. However, my

model corrects for team performances, thus discounting any contribution Brabham had to his

own cars performances. He is penalized for having more competitive cars and fewer mechanical

DNFs than others in his era.

Second, Brabham was outperformed by several teammates, including Roy Salvadori (no 3-year

peak) in 1958, fellow Lotus-Climax driverJim Clarkin 1962,Dan Gurneyfrom 1963 to

1965,Jochen Rindtin 1968, andJacky Ickxin 1969.

56. Mika Hakkinen (1998-2000, 6.09 ppr)

Many fans will be unhappy to see Hakkinen ranked 56th, especially since he has been ranked ashigh as 11th by experts. My models lower ranking is corroborated by Eichenberger and

Stadelmanns analysis, which placed Hakkinen 39th.
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Copyright: Bridgestone

Hakkinen spent most of his career at McLaren, partnered with David Coulthard (ranked 66th),

meaning Hakkinens rating is largely based on their relative performances. During their 6 years

together, Coulthard twice outscored Hakkinen (in 1997 and 2001). Overall, Hakkinen was

quicker in qualifying, beating his teammate 68-31. However, in races the gap was small, despite

McLarens preference for the Finn and occasional team orders in his favor. Hakkinen finished

ahead 35-26 in races and 360-296 in points. This means Coulthard finished ahead 43% of the

time and scored 82% of Hakkinens points. By comparison, Coulthard finished ahead ofKimi

Raikkonen27% of the time and scored 73% of Raikkonens points.

Hakkinens first regular teammate wasJohnny Herbert (ranked 88th) from 1991-1992. Herbert

beat Hakkinen 14-10 in qualifying, but Hakkinen was ahead 7-2 in races and 11-2 in points.

Hakkinen then made a brief cameo for McLaren in 1993. Ayrton Sennabeat him 2-1 in
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qualifying, 1-0 in races, and 20-4 in points. In 1994, Hakkinen comfortably beat Martin Brundle

(ranked 73rd) 15-0 in qualifying, 5-1 in races, and 26-13 in points. He then beat Mark Blundell

(ranked 99th) 12-1 in qualifying, 5-1 in races, and 15-10 in points.

1998 is rated Hakkinens best year by the model, but he is penalized for the dominant Newey-

designed McLaren he drove. The model awards him 2nd in the championship that year,

behindMichael Schumacher. The models team performance ratings (excluding mechanical

DNFs) are shown below, with thick lines indicating time Newey worked for each team.

Hakkinens error-prone 1999 season, in which he almost lost the title to Eddie Irvine (ranked

61st) is instead awarded toHeinz-Harald Frentzen.

55. Nelson Piquet (1982-1984, 6.10 ppr)

Nelson Piquet andJack Brabhamare rated considerably lower than any other triple world

champions. The earlier analysis of Eichenberger and Stadelmann came to a similar conclusion,ranking Brabham 47th and Piquet 48th. The models contend that Brabham and Piquet are

overrated by virtue of having three titles to their name. The human mind naturally wants to put

the most successful drivers near the top of the list and is susceptible to selective perception of

data that challenge this belief, as well as bandwagoning (most expert lists look similar). A

mathematical model is free of these cognitive biases.

Piquet is one of several drivers from the 1980s ranked lower by the model than by experts. This

is because the model finds the level of competition was relatively low during this era. The level

of competition has generally increased from year to year. In 1950, the year with the lowest level,
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several of the entrants were previous Grand Prix racers from the 1920s-1940s. Most of the top

drivers were aged in their 30s, 40s, or 50s.

Competition reached a peak around the mid-1970s, then dropped slightly across the late 1970s

and early 1980s, before rising again in the 1990s, reaching new heights after 2000. The most

competitive year to date is found to be 2011. The drivers of the 1980s are thus penalized for

racing in what the model judges a slightly less competitive environment.

Piquet spent most of his career outperforming less competitive teammates. These included

Hector Rebaque (ranked 160th out of 162 drivers with a 3-year peak), Teo Fabi (no 3-year peak),

Marc Surer (ranked 114th), Satoru Najakima (ranked 139th), Alessandro Nannini (ranked

102nd), and Roberto Moreno (no 3-year peak). Piquet is also penalized for the dominant cars he

drove during his championship years.


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From 1986-1987, Piquet performed similarly to teammateNigel Mansell. Overall, Piquet was

behind 17-13 in qualifying and 11-8 in races, but ahead 145-124 in points. A further indirect

comparison with Mansell is possible via their shared teammate Riccardo Patrese (ranked 76th),

which works in Mansells favor. Overall, Piquet beat Patrese 19-11 in qualifying, 5-3 in races, and

79-34 in points, while Mansell beat Patrese 34-12 in qualifying, 20-5 in races, and 192-117 inpoints.

54. Olivier Panis (1995-1997, 6.18 ppr)

Panis looked set for great

things before breaking both legs atMontreal 1997.He had bettered every teammate, including

Eric Bernard (no 3-year peak), Martin Brundle (ranked 73rd), Aguri Suzuki (ranked 144th),

Pedro Diniz (ranked 95th), and Shinji Nakano (no 3-year peak). He had also taken

anunexpected victoryin the 1996 Monaco Grand Prix.
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On return, Panis struggled to achieve the same results, perhaps due to lingering injury, or

perhaps because he now had stronger teammates in less competitive cars. He had no trouble

with one-lap pace, losing the qualifying war just 17-15 toJarno Trulli,but fell behind in races.

From 2000-2002, he was outperformed byJacques Villeneuve. He then joined Cristiano da

Matta (no 3-year peak) at Toyota for 2003-2004. Panis outqualifyied da Matta 18-8, but wasbeaten 9-7 in races.

53. Mika Salo (1995-1997, 6.25 points per race)

Mika Salo achieved little success in Formula 1, spending his career in midfield teams. He was

closely matched withMika Hakkinenin British Formula 3, with the twowinning 15 of the 17

races in 1990. Salos career was then stalled by a drink-driving charge that cost him a

superlicense in 1990.

Salos talent was recognized early on he was ranked 74th by a panel of experts in F1 Racing

magazine in 1997, with Hakkinen ranked 58th. Hakkinen then took two titles while Salo battled

in midfield. With hindsight bias, Salo has been largely forgotten. My model suggests that at their

respective bests, Hakkinen and Salo would have been evenly matched in the same car.

Salos record relative to his teammates indicates that he deserved a shot with a better team.

From 1995-1996, he dominated Ukyo Katayama (ranked 121st) at Tyrrell, beating him 23-9 in

qualifying, 13-2 in races, and 10-0 in points. In 1997, Jos Verstappen (ranked 135th) joined

Tyrrell Salo beat him 10-7 in qualifying, 6-0 in races, and 2-0 in points.
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Salo partnered Pedro Diniz (ranked 95th) in 1998 and 2000. Overall, he beat Diniz 22-11 in

qualifying, 13-3 in races, and 9-6 in points. Salo had no full-time drive for 1999 and was called to

race for Ferrari afterMichael Schumachers injury. He was beaten by Eddie Irvine (ranked 61st)

4-2 in qualifying, 4-1 in races, and 28-10 in points, although on one occasion Salo surrendered a

win to Irvine. Salo spent 2001 as a development driver for Toyota, before returning for a finalseason to partner Allan McNish (no 3-year peak). He beat McNish 15-2 in qualifying, 5-3 in

races, and 2-0 in points.

52. Stefano Modena (1990-1992, 6.28 ppr)

Stefano Modena is viewed by many as a wasted talent. In

1987, he was Formula 3000 champion and was invited to race for Brabham at the Australian

Grand Prix. He made an ignominious debut, retiring due to physical exhaustion. His career

thereafter consisted of drives for unreliable midfield teams. He never made it to a competitive

team his case not helped by his temperamental nature. Formula 1 observers recognized his

incredible talent, and many viewed him as a future champion, even comparing him to Senna. In

1990, Joe Saward wrote:

Stefano Modena will replaceJean Alesiat Tyrrell next season and there are many

in Formula 1 who believe Stefano has just as much if not more talent than

F1s current rising star.[article]

After a year spent struggling to qualify the hopeless EuroBrun car, Modena was paired with the

experienced Martin Brundle (ranked 73rd) at Brabham in 1989. The two drivers were very

closely matched. Modena outqualified Brundle 9-7, while the two were equal 3-3 in races and 4-

4 in points, Modenas points courtesy of a brilliant 3rd place at Monaco.
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16/78

The 1990 Brabham was no better, with Modena taking the teams only points. In qualifying,

David Brabham (no 3-year peak) was an average of 1.33 seconds behind Modena. In 1991,

Modenas Tyrrell was occasionally competitive, and he dragged it to 8th in the championship,

comfortably outperforming Satoru Nakajima (ranked 139th). He scored an astonishing 2nd

place at the Canadian Grand Prix whenMansell embarrassingly stalled waving to the crowd onthe final lap.

In 1992, Modena raced alongside Mauricio Gugelmin (ranked 64th) for Jordan. Gugelmin had a

small edge in qualifying, beating Modena 9-7, but it was 2-2 in races, and Modena dragged the

Jordan to 6th in the final round, scoring the teams only point that year. Modena was unable to

find a drive for 1993, having burned too many bridges.

51. Gilles Villeneuve (1979-1981, 6.31 ppr)

It is difficult to distinguish Gilles Villeneuve the driverfrom Gilles Villeneuve the icon.

Villeneuve is fondly remembered for his derring-do and legendary feats behind the wheel,

including that famous 1979 wet qualifying session at Watkins Glen where he was 11 seconds

quicker than anyone. If we take anecdotes over achievements, Villeneuve is surely one of the

greatest of all time, and thats where experts have typically rated him: between 10th and 13th.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwoTg5O9v5Ehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwoTg5O9v5Ehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwoTg5O9v5Ehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwoTg5O9v5Ehttp://en.espnf1.com/f1/motorsport/story/6630.htmlhttp://en.espnf1.com/f1/motorsport/story/6630.htmlhttp://en.espnf1.com/f1/motorsport/story/6630.htmlhttp://en.espnf1.com/f1/motorsport/story/6630.htmlhttp://en.espnf1.com/f1/motorsport/story/6630.htmlhttp://en.espnf1.com/f1/motorsport/story/6630.htmlhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwoTg5O9v5Ehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwoTg5O9v5E


17/78

With a mathematical model, we can critically examine Villeneuves results, taking sentimentality

out of the equation. Villeneuve was a spectacular driver with uncanny car control andwet-

weather flair, buthe also made frequent driver errors. In 1978, he was beaten by the more

experiencedCarlos Reutemann12-4 in qualifying, 6-6 in races, and 48-17 in points. He then

fractionally outperformedJody Scheckterin 1979, based on points per counting race, andsignificantly outperformed him in 1980 (see Scheckters entry for a full discussion). From 1981

to his fatal accident in 1982, he raced alongside Didier Pironi (ranked 118th) at Ferrari. Overall,

Villeneuve was ahead 14-6 in qualifying, Pironi was ahead 4-3 in races, and Villeneuve was

ahead 31-19 in points.

50. Rubens Barrichello (1996-1998, 6.31 ppr)

Rubens Barrichellos early career was filled with promise.From 1993-1998, he outperformed

teammates Thierry Boutsen (ranked 84th), Eddie Irvine (ranked 61st), Martin Brundle (ranked73rd), Jan Magnussen (no 3-year peak), and Jos Verstappen (ranked 135th). In 1999, he was

closely matched with Johnny Herbert (ranked 88th).

From 2000-2005, Barrichello went head-to-head withMichael Schumacherat Ferrari. While

Barrichello undoubtedly suffered from team orders, he was comprehensively outperformed by

Schumacher, scoring only 61% of his points.

Barrichello spent 2006-2009 alongsideJenson Button, racing for the disappointing Honda

team that eventually flourished as Brawn in 2009. Barrichello stayed in close contention in

qualifying, but was consistently outperformed by Button in races. In his final two years at

Williams, Barrichello slightly outperformed the rookies Nico Hulkenberg (ranked 74th) andPastor Maldonado (ranked 81st).
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18/78

49. Mario Andretti (1977-1979, 6.35 ppr)

Andretti made an impressive debut appearance for Lotus at the 1968 US Grand Prix, taking pole

position. He continued to make occasional appearances over the following years, including a

victory for Ferrari in only his 11th start at the 1971 South African Grand Prix. However, it wasntuntil 1975 that Andretti committed to a full season.

From 1976-1977, Andretti was paired with Gunnar Nilsson (no 3-year peak) at Lotus, whom he

outscored 69-31. For 1978, Lotus paired Andretti withRonnie Peterson. Peterson was

considered the quicker driver by many, yet Andretti came out ahead 11-3 in qualifying, 8-2 in

races, and 64-51 in points, although Peterson twice appeared to obey team orders by not

challenging Andretti for the lead. The Lotus car was extremely dominant in 1978. Once the

model corrects for this, the championship is awarded to Niki Lauda,with Andretti demoted to

5th.

Lotus were less competitive in 1979 and Andretti was outscored byCarlos Reutemann20-14,

although he was fractionally ahead on points per counting race, due to worse luck with

mechanical DNFs. In 1980, Andretti was joined byElio de Angelis, who turned heads by

outscoring his experienced teammate 13-1. After a difficult season with Alfa-Romeo in 1981,

Andretti made only brief appearances for Ferrari and Williams in 1982 before closing the

curtain on his Formula 1 career.
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19/78

48. Ralf Schumacher (1999-2001, 6.35 ppr)

Ralf Schumacher lacked the consistency of his brother, but wasunbeatably quick on his day.

Across his career, he was matched with several strong drivers and performed well by

comparison. In his rookie year, he was only slightly outperformed byGiancarlo Fisichella(in hissecond year). In 1998, he partnered ex-championDamon Hilland was again only slightly

outperformed; in fact, he could have outscored Hill if allowed to pass for the lead at Spa. In

1999, he dominated Alex Zanardi (no 3-year peak), putting a rapid end to Zanardis comeback.

In 2000, Ralf was paired with the precocious rookieJenson Buttonand again came out on top.

From 2001-2004, Williams paired Schumacher withJuan Pablo Montoya. The two drivers

proved to be an excellent match, with Montoya having a small edge overall (see Montoyas entry

for more details). In 2005, Ralf moved to Toyota, where he spent 3 years alongside Jarno Trulli.

Again, Schumacher was a very close match for his teammate, outscoring Trulli 70-66.

47. Jean Alesi (1991-1993, 6.39 ppr)

The fact that Alesi achieved only 1 win in his 201 starts is viewed as a grave injustice by many. In

1989, Alesi finished 4th on debut for Tyrrell and dominated teammate Jonathan Palmer (ranked

116th) across the season. His star seemed on the rise in 1990 when he twice finished 2nd

including hismemorable duel with Senna for the lead at Phoenix and dominated Satoru

Nakajima (ranked 139th).
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Tyrrell, Williams, and Ferrari all tried to sign Alesi for 1991 leading to a contract dispute.

Ultimately, Alesi replacedNigel Mansellat Ferrari, while Mansell moved to Williams. Mansells

move was fortuitous, as Williams delivered a top car, while Ferraris performance dipped. Alesi

was beaten byAlain Prost13-2 in qualifying, 4-2 in races, and 34-21 in points. Ferraris

performance slipped further in 1992, but Alesi impressed with consistent points, outscoring

Ivan Capelli (ranked 72nd) 18-3. The model considers Alesis performance the best of any driver

in 1992, underlining the fact that Alesi may have been champion had he gone to Williams.

From 1993-1997, Alesi partnered Gerhard Berger (ranked 67th), first at Ferrari, then at

Benetton. The two formed one of the closest partnerships in Formula 1. Across their 77 races

together, Alesis record vs. Berger was 42-35 in qualifying, 19-22 in races, and 151-126 in points.

The final years of Alesis career were spent racing for Sauber, Prost, and Jordan. Alesi

outperformed Johnny Herbert (ranked 88th), Gaston Mazzacane (no 3-year peak), and Luciano

Burti (no 3-year peak), but was closely matched with Pedro Diniz (ranked 95th) and talented

rookieNick Heidfeld.

46. Nigel Mansell (1990-1992, 6.42 ppr)
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21/78

Mansell is much admired for his dogged racing and has been rated as high as the top 10 by

experts, especially in polls with a pro-British bias. My model ranks him considerably lower, due

to being significantly outperformed by two teammates Alain ProstandElio de Angelisand

driving extremely dominant cars in his most successful years.

Mansell began his career at Lotus in 1980, racing there alongside de Angelis to 1984. The only

year in which Mansell outscored de Angelis was 1983, when de Angelis suffered an astonishing

12 mechanical DNFs in 15 rounds to Mansells 4. Overall, de Angelis outscored Mansell 76-38.

In 1985, Mansell moved to Williams to partnerKeke Rosberg. The two drivers were well

matched, with Rosberg ahead 9-7 in qualifying, Mansell ahead 5-2 in races, and Rosberg ahead

40-31 in points. From 1986-1987, Mansell raced withNelson Piquetat Williams. Again, the

drivers were closely matched, with Mansell ahead 17-13 in qualifying and 11-8 in races, but

behind 145-124 in points.

Mansell was joined by Riccardo Patrese (ranked 76th) at Williams in 1988 and from 1991-1992.

Overall, Mansell dominated Patrese, beating him 34-12 in qualifying, 20-5 in races, and 192-117

in points. 1989 and 1990 were spent at Ferrari, first alongside Gerhard Berger (ranked 67th),

then alongsideAlain Prost. Versus Berger it was 7-7 in qualifying, with Mansell ahead 2-1 in

races and 38-15 in points. Versus Prost, it was 8-8 in qualifying, with Mansell behind 4-3 in

races and 73-37 in points.
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22/78

45. Jacky Ickx (1968-1970, 6.43 ppr)

Ickx was remarkable for simultaneously competing at the highest levels of single-seater and

sportscar racing. During his Formula 1 career, he outperformed several of the highest rated

drivers of the 1960s and 1970s, twice finishing runner-up for the world championship.

Ickxs first full season was at Ferrari in 1968 alongside the more experienced Chris Amon.Ickx

was behind 7-2 in qualifying, but ahead 4-1 in races and 27-10 in points, finishing an impressive

4th in the championship. In 1969, Ickx raced for the Brabham team alongside team

founderJack Brabham.Ickx equaled Brabham 4-4 in qualifying, and beat him 3-0 in races and

18-14 in points.

Ickx spent 1970-1973 racing for Ferrari withMario Andretti,Clay Regazzoni (ranked 90th), and

Arturo Merzario (ranked 107th). Versus Andretti, Ickx was ahead 8-3 in qualifying, behind 3-2

in races, and ahead 31-16 in points. Versus Regazzoni, Ickx was ahead 16-13 in qualifying, 14-3

in races, and 86-61 in points. Versus Merzario, Ickx was ahead 5-4 in qualifying, 4-2 in races,

and 17-7 in points.

Cahier Archive:http://www.f1-photo.com/

From 1974-1975, Ickx raced alongside the brilliantRonnie Petersonat Lotus. For the first time

in his career, Ickx was comprehensively beaten by his teammate, losing 21-3 in qualifying, 7-3 in

races, and 38-15 in points. In the following years, Ickx made only sporadic appearances for

Williams, Ensign, and Ligier before bowing out of Formula 1.
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44. John Surtees (1964-1966, 6.45 ppr)

Surtees is the only driver to win world championships in both Formula 1 and motorcycles. While

still on his way to a fourth 500cc title in 1960, he started four races for Lotus, astonishing the

Formula 1 world byfinishing 2nd in only his second race.

In 1961, Surtees made a full transition to Formula 1, racing for Cooper-Climax alongside Roy

Salvadori (no 3-year peak). Other Cooper-Climax drivers that year includedBruce

McLarenandJack Brabham.Surtees performed similary to Salvadori and Brabham, but worse

than McLaren.

Copyright: Getty Images Sport

Surtees moved to Ferrari in 1963, racing alongside Lorenzo Bandini (ranked 152nd) until 1966.

Surtees beat Bandini 21-3 in qualifying, 7-1 in races, and 66-47 in points. The model penalizes

both drivers in 1964 for driving a dominant car Surteess title that year is awarded toJim

Clark.

Interestingly, the model picks 1966 as Surteess stand-out year, awarding him the championship

slightly ahead of Clark. Surtees began 1966 in strong fashion with Ferrari, but moved to Cooper-

Maserati alongsideJochen Rindtwhen Ferrari strangely omitted him from their Le Mans

team. Surtees beat Rindt 6-1 in qualifying, 1-1 in races, and 19-18 in points, despite 4 mechanical

DNFs to Rindts 1.

Surtees was sole driver for Honda from 1967-1968, then outperformed teammate Jackie Oliver

(ranked 147th) at BRM in 1969. Surtees transitioned from driver to team manager across 1970-

1971, racing his last full season in 1971, outperforming Rolf Stommelen (ranked 140th).

43. Dan Gurney (1963-1965, 6.45 ppr)
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Gurney never quite made a serious challenge for the WDC, but was deeply respected by his

peers. His career began at Ferrari in 1959 alongside Tony Brooks (ranked 109th) and Phil Hill

(ranked 136th). The points tally was Brooks 18, Hill 16, Gurney 13. In 1960, Gurney was slightly

outperformed byGraham Hilland Jo Bonnier (ranked 104th) at BRM.

1961 saw an improvement in form, as Gurney dominated Bonnier at Porsche. He carried this

momentum into 1962, again outperforming Bonnier. Across 1960-1962, he beat Bonnier 13-9 in

qualifying, 6-2 in races, and 36-10 in points.

From 1963-1965, Gurney beatJack Brabhams 19-7 in qualifying, 5-5 in races, and 54-34 in

points. Gurney was also joined by the rookieDenny Hulmein 1965, beating him 5-0 in

qualifying, 1-0 in races, and 13-5 in points.

Gurney spent 1966-1967 as sole driver at Eagle, with a crippling 14 mechanical DNFs in 19

starts. In the remaining 5 races, he finished 4 in the points, including a win at the 1967 Belgian

Grand Prix. Thereafter, Gurney made only occasional race appearances.

42. Denny Hulme (1970-1972, 6.46 ppr)

Hulme was never especially quick over a single lap, but was a master of smooth and conservative

racing, making him a quiet and extremely effective performer, in much the same mold asJenson

Button. This is reflected in his statistics: he took 8 wins and 9 fastest laps, but only 1 pole

position. He has the fewest pole positions per win of all drivers to achieve 5 or more wins, as

shown in the graph below (some notable drivers and outliers are labeled, with Hulme at the

extreme left).
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In his rookie year at Brabham in 1965, Hulme was outperformed by teammates Dan

GurneyandJack Brabham.He was again outperformed by Brabham in 1966, but then turned

the tables on Brabham in 1967. Overall, Brabham beat Hulme 20-5 in qualifying, 9-3 in races,

and 95-69 in points. The model penalizes both Brabham and Hulme for driving a fast and

reliable car in 1967, relegating Hulme to 5th in the championship and awarding the title toJim

Clarkinstead.

From 1968-1970, Hulme raced for the McLaren team alongside countrymanBruce McLaren.

There was healthy competition, with Hulme ahead 20-5 in qualifying and 6-5 in races, but

behind 54-51 in points. Following McLarens death, Hulme raced alongside Peter Gethin

(ranked 156rth) from 1970-1971. Although Gethin took a win in 1971, Hulme comfortably

outperformed him overall.

From 1972-1973, Hulme was paired with Peter Revson (no 3-year peak), who had a short but

extremely promising career, before he died in a 1974 testing crash. Hulme and Revson were a

close match, with Hulme ahead 14-9 in qualifying, but behind 9-8 in races and 61-53 in points.

Hulmes last full season was spent with Emerson Fittipaldiat McLaren in 1974. He was not able

to keep pace with his teammate and retired at the end of the season.
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41. Juan Pablo Montoya (2002-2004, 6.49 ppr)

Montoya enjoyed a relatively short but spectacular career in Formula 1, with a reputation for

aggressive racing and a penchant for oversteer. In 2001, he was a surprise replacement

forJenson Buttonat Williams, partneringRalf Schumacherfrom 2001-2004.

Montoya proved to be a good match for Ralf, outscoring him 194-173. In 2003, Montoya came

close to the title, eventually finishing 3rd, with Williams-BMW having the best powerplant that

year. After correcting for team effects, Montoya is rated 5th that year, slightly behindFernando

Alonso,Michael Schumacher,Heinz-Harald Frentzen,andKimi Raikkonen.

In 2005, Montoya moved to McLaren. His two seasons there were trying, as he struggled to keep

pace with Raikkonen, while failing to fit into the culture of the McLaren team. He was dropped

midway through 2006 aftercrashing into the back of Raikkonenat the start of the US Grand

Prix.

40. Patrick Depailler (1977-1979, 6.49 ppr)

Depailler was a no-nonsense racer who enjoyed taking risks and driving at (or slightly over) the

limit. You can see him manhandling his Tyrrell around the streets of Long Beach in 1978 in this

video.

Depailler spent most of his career with the declining Tyrrell team, achieving only 2 wins and a

highest championship finish of 5th. This was a poor reflection of his talent. My model ranks him

similarly to a 1997 expert poll by F1 Racing magazine that placed him 43rd.
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From 1974-1976, Depailler raced alongsideJody Scheckter.Overall, Scheckter had the edge on

Depailler, outscoring him 114-65, but Depailler showed improvement from year to year. In 1977,

Depailler was joined byRonnie Petersonat Tyrrell. He demonstrated his phenomenal pace by

beating Peterson 9-8 in qualifying and 20-7 in points, although he finished behind 3-2 in races.

Depaillers last full season was at Tyrrell in 1978. He dominated Didier Pironi (ran ked 122nd),

beating him 14-2 in qualifying, 6-2 in races, and 34-7 in points. In 1979, Depailler raced only the

first 7 rounds for Ligier before breaking both legs in a hang-gliding accident. Over those 7

rounds, he was beaten byJacques Laffite4-3 in qualifying, 3-0 in races, and 24-22 in points.

Shortly after his comeback with Alfa-Romeo in 1980, Depailler died in a testing crash.

39. Jacques Villeneuve (2000-2002, 6.50 ppr)

BeforeLewis Hamilton,Jacques Villeneuve was arguably Formula 1s most successful rookie. In

his first year at Williams, he surprisedDamon Hill, taking the championship fight to the last

round. In 1997, Williams was still the best car, but not by the same margin as it had been in

1996. Meanwhile, Hill had been replaced byHeinz-Harald Frentzen,who was touted as the next

Schumacher. Villeneuve turned opinion on its head by dominating Frentzen, outscoring him 81-

42. Villeneuve won the championship, whileMichael Schumacherwith 78 points was excluded

for Jerez.After correcting for team effects, my model rates Schumachers performance the best
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of 1997 by a significant margin, with Villeneuve 2nd. In 1998, Frentzen and Villeneuve were

closely matched.

In 1999, Villeneuve moved to BAR, where he would spend 5 uncompetitive years. Villeneuves

performance was thought by many to have dropped off during this fallow period. However, his

performances alongside teammates indicate that he was still driving at a very high level. Careful

observers of the time recognized how hard Villeneuve was still pushing:

Villeneuve never stinted in his efforts on the track. No matter how bad the car, he

drove it with the manic determination and huge confidence and bravery that had

been in evidence from his first days in F1, and you could not but admire him for

that. Andrew Benson.

From 1999-2000, Villeneuve was paired with Ricardo Zonta (no 3-year peak), who arrived in

Formula 1 with a strong junior record, including championship titles in Brazilian Formula 3,

South American Formula 3, Formula 3000, and the FIA GT Championship. Villeneuve beat

Zonta 26-3 in qualifying, 10-2 in races, and 17-3 in points. From 2001-2002, Villeneuve was

paired withOlivier Panis.This was a closer match, but Villeneuve again came out on top, 21-13

in qualifying, 8-5 in races, and 15-8 in points. The model rates 1997 as Villeneuves best single-

year performance, but rates 2000-2002 his 3-year peak. After correcting for team effects, he isranked 5th in the championship in both 2000 and 2002.
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In 2003, Villeneuve was joined byJenson Buttonat BAR. At first he clearly underrated his

young teammate, comparing him to a boy-band member. Button beat Villeneuve 8-7 in

qualifying, 3-2 in races, and 12-6 in points. After a 3-race cameo for Renault in 2004, Villeneuve

returned for a full season with Sauber in 2005. He was beaten byFelipe Massa13-6 in

qualifying, 10-3 in races, and 11-9 in points. In 2006, Villeneuve was joined byNick Heidfeld.Villeneuve held a 7-5 edge in qualifying, but was behind 6-2 in races and 13-7 in points when he

was replaced byRobert Kubica.

38. Bruce McLaren (1963-1965, 6.61 ppr)

The eponymous founder of the McLaren

team was teammate to 4 world champions during his career: Jack Brabham, Phil Hill, Jochen

Rindt, and Denny Hulme. McLarens performances relative to each of them demonstrate his

quality.

Champ #1:McLaren started alongsideJack Brabhamat Cooper from 1958-1961. Overall, he

was slightly outperformed by his more experienced teammate, beaten 22-3 in qualifying, 10-5 in

races, and 75-66.5 in points.

Champ #2:In 1964, McLaren raced with Phil Hill at Cooper. Hill is the models lowest ranked

champion: 136th of all time. McLaren beat Hill 8-1 in qualifying, 2-0 in races, and 7-1 in points.

Champ #3:In McLarens last year with Cooper in 1965, he raced alongside the youngJochen

Rindt,who was in his first full season. McLaren beat Rindt 8-2 in qualifying, 2-0 in races, and

10-4 in points.

Champ #4: After forming the McLaren team, McLaren raced alongsideDenny Hulmefrom

1968-1970. McLaren was beaten 20-5 in qualifying and 6-5 in races, but outscored Hulme 54-51.

37. Eddie Cheever (1981-1983, 6.62 ppr)
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Although he never won a race, Eddie Cheever is ranked the highest American driver by the

model, slightly ahead ofDan GurneyandMario Andretti.Besides 1983, Cheever spent his career

in midfield and backmarker teams. After a year driving alone for backmarkers Osella, Cheever

established himself by outperforming Michele Alboreto (ranked 79th) in 1981 andJacques

Laffitein 1982.

In 1983, he facedAlain Prostat Renault and was beaten 13-2 in qualifying, 4-1 in races, and 57-

22 in points. The points difference was exacerbated by Cheever suffering 8 mechanical DNFs to

Prosts 2. Cheever slumped at Alfa-Romeo from 1984-1985, being outperformed by Riccardo

Patrese (ranked 76th) 20-12 in qualifying, 4-1 in races, and 8-3 in points. With no full-time drive

for 1986, Cheever returned with Arrows alongside Derek Warwick (ranked 68th) from 1987-

1989. Overall, the two drivers were closely matched, with Warwick ahead 34-12 in qualifying,

Cheever ahead 10-9 in races, and Warwick ahead 27-20 in points.

36. Graham Hill (1964-1966, 6.68 ppr)
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Graham Hill has been rated between 17th

and 21st by experts, whereas my model rates him lower, penalizing him for driving very

dominant cars in his championship years.

Hill consistently outperformed his teammate Richie Ginther (ranked 138th) at BRM from 1962-

1964. However, he was outperformed by several teammates during his career, including Innes

Ireland (ranked 62nd) in 1959, Jo Bonnier (ranked 104th) in 1960, Tony Brooks (ranked 109th)

in 1961,Jim Clarkin 1967,Jochen Rindtin 1969, Tim Schenken (no 3-year peak) in 1971,

andCarlos Reutemannin 1972. Additionally, Hill was outperformed by two drivers using the

same chassis-engine combination in1970:Jochen RindtandEmerson Fittipaldi.

35. Damon Hill (1994-1996, 6.69 ppr)

Ranked just ahead of his father is Damon Hill, who took an unlikely path to Formula 1,

switching from bikes to cars in his early twenties, reaching Formula 1 at 31, and winning the title

at 36. Hill spent most of his career at Williams, driving strong cars. Once team effects are

removed, the 1996 championship is awarded toMichael Schumacherby a large margin, with

Hill 2nd in both 1994 and 1996.

Hill stacked up well against his teammates. In his first full season, alongsideAlain Prost,he was

outscored 99-69, while suffering 4 mechanical DNFs to Prosts 1. Leading the Williams team in

the wake ofAyrton Sennas death, he partnered David Coulthard (ranked 66th) from 1994-1995.

Hill beat Coulthard 17-8 in qualifying, 10-4 in races, and 131-63 in points.
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In 1996, Hill beatJacques Villeneuve13-3 in qualifying, 6-6 in races, and 97-78 in points.

Despite winning the championship,Hill was ousted by Williams,joining Arrows for 1997. In this

car,which was 5 seconds off the pace at the first round,he showed his true mettle. At Hungary,

he finished a spectacular 2nd, very nearly winning the race but for a hydraulic pump failure. He

beat Pedro Diniz (ranked 95th) 14-3 in qualifying, 3-2 in races, and 7-2 in points. For 1997, Hill

had offers from Ferrari, McLaren, and Benetton. Based on his performance for Arrows, the

model predicts that he would have scored 42 points for Ferrari, 44 points for McLaren, and 46

points for Benetton.

In 1998, Hill moved to Jordan, partneringRalf Schumacher.Hill was outqualified 10-6, but beat

Ralf 4-3 in races and 20-14 in points. By 1999, Hill looked demotivated and at one

pointannounced that he would quit mid-season.In his final race at Japan, he withdrew despite

no mechanical problems. Across the season, he was utterly dominated byHeinz-Harald

Frentzen, who demonstrated that the car was capable of 3rd in the championship. Hill was

outscored 54-7, thus creating one of the most interesting driver triangles: Hill beat Villeneuve,

Villeneuve beat Frentzen, Frentzen beat Hill (demonstrating the dangers of comparing any

driver to just a single teammate).
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34. Carlos Pace (1973-1975, 6.72 ppr)

Carlos Pace is often forgotten today, overshadowed by the successes of his Brazilian

compatriotsEmerson Fittipaldi,Nelson Piquet,andAyrton Senna.However, he was highly rated

by his contemporaries

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