Why ASEAN?

Why ASEAN?

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Content

Overview

Population

GDP

FDI

Trade

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OverviewLAND AREA

WHY ASEAN / OVERVIEW

Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) consists of 10 countries covering 4.5 million km² area (larger than the land area of India). Indonesia has the largest surface area (1.5 million km²) among ASEAN, followed by Myanmar, Thailand and other countries.

BruneiCapital: Bandar Seri BegawanArea: 5,765 km²

CambodiaCapital: Phnom PenhArea: 181,035 km²

IndonesiaCapital: JakartaArea: 1,502,029 km²

Lao PDRCapital: VientianeArea: 236,800 km²

MalaysiaCapital: Kuala LumpurArea: 330,803 km²

MyanmarCapital: Nay Pyi TawArea: 676,578 km²

PhilippinesCapital: ManilaArea: 300,000 km²

SingaporeCapital: SingaporeArea: 725 km²

ThailandCapital: BangkokArea: 513,120 km²

Viet NamCapital: HanoiArea: 331,212 km²

Source: Wikipedia

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OverviewASEAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS

WHY ASEAN / OVERVIEW

ASEAN bloc has a combined GDP of USD 3.1 trillion, and a population of 667 million. According to IMF’s latest estimates, on average ASEAN real GDP grew by 3.8% between 2015-2020 and over the next five years, the expected average GDP growth rate will be around 3.5%. In 2020, the GDP per capita of ASEAN countries recorded USD 4,658, significantly higher than the 2015 level. FDI inward stock of ASEAN countries reached its highest level of USD 2.9 trillion in 2020, 7.4% higher than the previous year. Despite there was a decrease in ASEAN’s import volume of goods last year, the average export volume of goods grew by 0.6% between 2019 and 2020. It is expected that from 2020 to 2025 the average volume of exports and imports of goods will grow by 4.6% and 4.8%, respectively. Experts predict that ASEAN countries will play an important role in driving global trade recovery in the post-pandemic period.

Economic Indicators of ASEAN

Source: Dubai Chamber based on UNCTAD and IMF (April 2021)

GDP(current, USD trillion)

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

GDP per capita (current, USD)

FDI Inward Stock (USD trillion)

Population(million)

2.5

2.6

2.9

3.1

3.1

3.2

4,024

4,170

4,452

4,722

4,658

4,946

1.8

1.9

2.3

2.4

2.9

2.7

633.1

640.2

647.2

654.0

667.3

660.7

Economic Indicators of ASEAN


Average GDP growth (constant, Y-o-Y)

2020

Average(2015-2020)

Average(2020-2025)

Average Unemployment rate

Average Inflation (average consumer prices, % change)

Average Volume of exports of goods (%

change, Y-o-Y)

Average Volume of imports of goods (%

change, Y-o-Y)

-2.5%

3.8%

3.5%

5.3%

4.2%

4.2%

2.1%

2.2%

2.6%

0.6%

4.5%

4.6%

-4.2%

3.8%

4.8%

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PopulationASEAN HAS GROWING YOUTH POPULATION

ASEAN Population by Country 2020 (mln persons)

WHY ASEAN / POPULATION

• According to UNCTAD’s estimates, in 2020 ASEAN population reached 667.3 mln, which was around 14.4% of Asia’s and 8.6% of world’s population. In ASEAN group Indonesia has the largest population of 273.5 mln (41% share), followed by Philippines, Viet Nam, Thailand, Malaysia and others. Between 2015 and 2020 ASEAN population grew with a CAGR of 1.1%. Moreover, over the next five years, ASEAN population will grow with a CAGR of 0.9% and reach its highest level of 698.4 million in 2025.

• More than 380 mln of ASEAN people is under age 35 (57% of the population) and the region has the 3rd largest labor force after China and India. Furthermore, according to experts, ASEAN middle class is expected to more than double from 135 mln to 350 mln by 2030. In ASEAN sustainable urbanization is a key part of this demographic growth, and it is estimated that around 70% of its population will live in urban areas by 2030.

ASEAN(Total population, 2020)

667.3 million

ASIA(ASEAN population share

in Asia, 2020)

14.4%

WORLD(ASEAN population share

in the world, 2020)

8.6%

Malaysia 32.4

Indonesia 273.5

Philippines 109.6

Vietnam 97.3

Thailand 69.8

Cambodia 16.7

Lao PDR 7.3

Singapore 5.9

Brunei 0.4

Myanmar 54.4

ASEAN population growth (CAGR %)

Source: Dubai Chamber based on UNCTAD

2015

633.1

667.3

698.4

+0.9%

+1.1%

2020 2025f

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According to IMF, in 2020, total ASEAN GDP reached $3.1 trillion and all countries in the region had positive GDP growth rates between 2015 and 2020. In 2020, ASEAN countries accounted for 9.13% of Asia’s and 3.5% of the world’s current GDP. ASEAN is also the 3rd largest region in Asia after East and South Asia. Indonesia has the largest GDP in the analyzed region and accounted for 34% of ASEAN’s GDP. The other large economies in the region include Thailand, Philippines, Viet Nam, Singapore and Malaysia. Among ASEAN countries, Viet Nam had the highest

growth of real GDP with a CAGR of 6.1% from 2015 to 2020, followed by Myanmar (5.7%), Cambodia (4.9%) and Lao PDR (4.8%). Over the next 5 years the fastest growth will be observed in Viet Nam, CAGR of 6.8%, followed by the Philippines (6.6.%), Cambodia (5.9%), Malaysia (5.7%), Lao PDR (5.6%) and Indonesia (5.3%). In 2020, Singapore and Brunei had the highest GDP per capita which are significantly higher than China and India. Other countries with large GDP per capita include Malaysia and Thailand.

ASEAN GDP (current, USD bn, 2020) and growth rates (real, CAGR)

GDP per capita, ASEAN vs. China & India (USD, current, 2020)

WHY ASEAN / GDP

ASEAN(Total GDP current, 2020)

$3.1 trillion

ASIA(ASEAN GDP share

in Asia, 2020)

9.13%

WORLD(ASEAN GDP sharein the world, 2020)

3.5%

GDPEXPECTED GDP GROWTH OF 6 ASEAN COUNTRIES WILL BE MORE THAN 5% OVER THE NEXT 5 YEARS



Malaysia

Indonesia

Myanmar

Vietnam

Cambodia

Philippines

Lao PDR

Lao PDR

Cambodia

Brunei

India

Myanmar

12.0 0.8% 2.1%

1,965

1,527

19.1 4.8% 5.6%

2,626

1,655

26.0 4.9% 5.9%

3,330

81.3 5.7% 1.3%

3,499

338.3 2.7% 5.7%

3,922

340.0 1.4% 3.3%

7,190

340.8 6.1% 6.8%

10,270

362.2 3.2% 6.6%

10,484

501.9 1.5% 3.8%

26,089

1,059.6 3.6% 5.3%

58,902

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

Malaysia

Philippines

China

Thailand

Brunei

Indonesia

Singapore

CAGR (2020-2025)CAGR (2015-2020)

7

WHY ASEAN / FDI

FDIASEAN IS THE 2ND MOST ATTRACTIVEDESTINATION FOR FDI IN ASIA

• According to UNCTAD, in 2020, total ASEAN FDI stock inflow reached USD 2.9 trillion (2nd in Asia), 8.4% higher than 2019. In 2020, ASEAN accounted for 34% of Asia’s and 7% of the world’s total FDI stock inflow. Moreover, from 2015 to 2020, ASEAN FDI stock inflow grew with a CAGR of 9.8%, the highest growth in Asia. In 2020, Singapore’s FDI stock inflow recorded USD 1,855 bn and accounted for 64% of region’s total FDI stock inflow. Attractive sectors for investment in ASEAN are digital economy, e-commerce, 5G networks and cloud computing. Besides, the region is projected to become a rapidly growing global data centre hub in the next 5 years, overtaking growth in North America and in other Asia-Pacific countries.

• ASEAN companies also have significant investments abroad. The region’s share of global outward investment flows rose from 6% in 2019 to 8% in 2020, and Singapore and Thailand were among the top 20 laargest investors of the world in 2020.

ASEAN(Total FDI inward

stock, 2020)

$2.9 trillion

ASIA(ASEAN FDI inward stock

share in Asia, 2020)

34.0%

WORLD(ASEAN FDI inward stock share in the world, 2020)

7.0%

Asia FDI Stock Inflow (USD billion, 2020) and growth rate (2015/2020)

FDI Stock Inflow in ASEAN (USD billion, 2020)

Note: ASEAN is also considered as South-East Asia which includes also small country Timor-Leste

Source: Dubai Chamber based on UNCTAD

South Asia

Central Asia 208 3.3%

616 9.5%

784 -1.3

2,913 9.8%

4,249 5.3%

West Asia

ASEAN*

East AsiaCAGR (2015-2020)

Malaysia 174

Singapore 1,855

Thailand 272

Indonesia 240

Philippines 103

Myanmar 37

Cambodia 37 Lao PDR

11 Brunei

8

Vietnam 177

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WHY ASEAN / TRADE

TRADEASEAN HAS DIVERSIFIED EXPORT ANDIMPORT STRATEGY

• According to Trademap, in 2020, the total trade of goods of ASEAN countries with the world reached USD 2.7 trillion. Moreover, the share of ASEAN’s total trade in Asia and in the world was around 18.7% and 7.5%, respectively.

• ASEAN countries have a positive net trade balance with the world and diversified export as well as import strategy. In 2020, the top 10 countries accounted for around 67% of total ASEAN’s exports to the world. China was the largest export partner with a 16% market share, followed by the USA (15%), Japan (7%), Hong Kong (7%), Singapore (5%) and other countries.

• Moreover, in the same year, the top 10 countries accounted for 73% of total ASEAN’s imports from the world. China, as the largest import partner, took almost one-fourth of ASEAN’s imports from the world. The other largest import partners of ASEAN in 2020, include Japan, USA, South Korea and others.

ASEAN(Total Trade, 2020)

$2.7 trillion

ASIA(ASEAN Total Trade share

in Asia, 2020)

18.7%

WORLD(ASEAN Total Trade share

in the world, 2020)

7.5%

ASEAN’s top 10 export partners (% share, 2020)

ASEAN’s top 10 import partners (% share, 2020)

China

China

USA

Japan

Japan

USA

Hong Kong

South Korea

Singapore

Taipei, Chinese

South Korea

Malaysia

Malaysia

Thailand

Thailand

Singapore

Taipei, Chinese

Indonesia

Indonesia

Germany

Others

Others

16%

15%

7%

7%5%4%4%

3%3%

3%

33%

24%

8%

8%

7%7%6%

4%4%

3%2%

27%

Source: Dubai Chamber based on UNCTAD and Trademap

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TRADEEXPORTS

• In 2020, ASEAN exports to the world reached USD 1.4 trillion, which was around 18.6% of total Asia’s exports and 7.9% of the world’s exports. Between 2015 and 2020, ASEAN’s exports value grew with a CAGR of 3.5%. Singapore was the largest exporter among ASEAN countries with a share of 26% in 2020. Other large exporters include Viet Nam, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia. The analyses revealed that between 2015 and 2020, Cambodia, Viet Nam and Lao PDR had the highest export growth rates with CAGR of 15%, 12% and 11%, respectively.

• MASEAN countries have diversified product exports. In 2020, the top 10 product groups accounted for around 68% of ASEAN’s exports to the world. Electronics was the largest exported product in ASEAN exports to the world, with a value of USD 406 bn and a share of 29%. Other large exported products include machinery (11%), mineral fuels (7%), precious stones and metals (4%) and other products.

ASEAN(Total Exports, 2020)

$1.4 trillion

ASIA(ASEAN Exports share

in Asia, 2020)

18.6%

WORLD(ASEAN Exports share in the

world, 2020)

7.9%

ASEAN exports to the world by country (USD bn, 2020)

ASEAN top 10 exports to the world by product (USD bn, 2020)


Philippines

Plastics & articles of it

Cambodia

Vehicles

Myanmar

Rubber & articles of it

Brunei

Animal/Vegetable Oil

Lao PDR

Apparel & clothing accessories

6.1 11%

27

6.6 1%

36

16.7 8%

40

17.2 15%

40

63.8 2%

42

163.3 2%

43

231.5 2%

56

234.1 3%

103

282.7 12%

150

362.5 1%

406

Indonesia

Medicalapparatus

Thailand

Preciousstone & metals

Malaysia

Mineral fuels

Vietnam

Machinery

Singapore

Electronics

CAGR (2015-2020)

0%

0%

1%

1%

5%

12%

17%

17%

20%

26%Share (2020)

2%

3%

3%

3%

3%

3%

4%

7%11%29%

Share (2020)

WHY ASEAN / TRADE

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TRADEIMPORTS

• In 2020, ASEAN imports from the world reached USD 1.4 trillion, which was around 18.7% of total Asia’s imports and 7.1% of global imports. Between 2015 and 2020, ASEAN’s total imports value grew with a CAGR of 2.9%. Singapore was the largest importer in the region with a share of 26% in 2020. Viet Nam was the second largest importer in ASEAN and its import grew with a CAGR of around 10%, the second highest among the South East Asian countries. The analyses revealed that between 2015 and 2020, Cambodia and Brunei had one of the highest import growth rates in the region with CAGR of 11% and 8%, respectively.

• ASEAN countries have diversified product imports. In 2020, the top 10 product groups accounted for around 71% of ASEAN’s imports from the world. Electronics was the largest imported product in ASEAN imports from the world, with a value of USD 354 bn and share of 28%, followed by machinery, mineral fuels, plastics and other products.

ASEAN(Total Imports, 2020)

$1.3 trillion

ASIA(ASEAN Imports share

in Asia, 2020)

18.7%

WORLD(ASEAN Imports share in the

world, 2020)

7.1%

ASEAN imports from the world by country (USD bn, 2020)

ASEAN top 10 imports from the world by product (USD bn, 2020)


Philippines

Iron & Steel

Vehicles

Cambodia

Myanmar

Medicalapparatus

Lao PDR

Organicchemicals

Brunei

Articles ofIron/steel

5.3 11%

22

5.4 -1%

25

17.9 1%

36

19.1 8%

37

90.7 4%

38

141.6 -0.2%

38

189.9 2%

52

207.0 0%

145

262.6 10%

154

329.8 2%

354

Indonesia

Preciousstone & metals

Malaysia

Plastics & articles of it

Thailand

Mineral fuels

Vietnam

Machinery

Singapore

Electronics

CAGR (2015-2020)

0%

0%

1%

2%

7%

11%

15%

16%

21%

26%Share (2020)

2%

2%

3%

3%

3%

3%

4%

11%

12%

28%Share (2020)

WHY ASEAN / TRADE

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Why ASEAN?