NEWS TUESDAY, 31 JULY 2018MUMBAI 03

impunity could be one factordriving such violence (seeChart 3).

While the conviction rate ofoverall Indian Penal Code(IPC) crimes has increasedover the last decade, the con-viction rate of crimes againstDalits has declined.

Less than one-third of casesof crimes against Dalits tried

by courts in 2015 faced convic-tions.

Other caste groups such asthe Marathas in Maharashtrahave been arguing that theplunge in convictions in suchcases is because of a rise infalse cases.

But there is very little evi-dence to back such a claim.The NCRB data shows that the

share of false cases in com-pleted trials has declined 3percentage points since 2012to 20% in 2015.

According to some lawyers,the stringent provisions of thePoA Act which were struckdown by the Supreme Courtlend themselves to abuse.Such stringent provisions inanother Act, Section 498A—

which was enacted to protectvictims of dowry cases—havealso been struck down becauseof the potential for abuse, saidS.S. Naganand, senior advo-cate and senior partner, Jus-tLaw, in Bengaluru.

However, in response tomultiple petitions fromwomen’s groups on this issue,the Supreme Court has

decided to revisit the Section498A provisions once again(bit.ly/2LYJzRf).

Dalit activists argue that thecourts and India’s ruling classneed to consider the disadvan-tageous position of Dalits inIndian society while examin-ing the issue.

While there may be a fewinstances of abuse of the law,

in a majority of cases the policeare extremely reluctant toinvoke the provisions of theAtrocities Act, or investigatecases of atrocities with due dil-igence, said Pradip More, dep-uty director at the non-gov-ernmental organisation DalitFoundation.

Often, judges, too, shy awayfrom invoking the provisionsof the Act. For instance, in theinfamous Khairlanji killings—where upper caste men killedfour members of a Dalit familyin Maharashtra—both the trialcourt and Bombay high courtrefused to invoke the PoA Act.

Ultimately, it is the Dalitmemory of being wrongedthroughout the history ofIndian civilization that keepsthe flame of Dalit protestsalive.

What may have added fuelto the fire is a sense of disap-pointment among Dalit voterswho voted for the NarendraModi-led BJP in large num-bers in 2014.

The perceived inability toprotect Dalit interests and tosave Dalit lives may havefuelled discontent amongDalit youth, as an earlier PlainFacts column (bit.ly/2LOacvi)by political scientists SanjayKumar and Pranav Guptaargued.

Figures from successiverounds of the Mood of theNation Survey conducted byLokniti-CSDS suggests thatDalit support for the BJP-ledUnion government has beendeclining since mid-2017 evenas Dalit protests have beengrowing (see Chart 4).

With the Congress partytraining its guns on the gov-ernment on the issue of Dalitatrocities, the Bharatiya JanataParty has a tough challenge onits hands.

Why Dalits are wary of a diluted Atrocities ActThe growing crimes against the community, low conviction rates, and a sense of disenchantment with NDA may all be contributing to Dalit anger

Dipti Jaindipti.j@livemint.comNEW DELHI

L ess than four monthsafter a Bharat Bandhcalled by Dalit groupsto protest against thedilution of the Sched-

uled Castes and ScheduledTribes (Prevention of Atroci-ties) Act claimed nine livesacross the country, anothersuch protest is being plannedon 9 August to press for thereinstatement of the stringentprovisions of the Act whichwere struck down by theSupreme Court.

One of the constituent par-ties of the ruling NationalDemocratic Alliance (NDA),the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP)has warned the government ofaggressive protests on 9August unless an ordinance ispromulgated tosupersede thecourt ruling onthe Act.

What explainsthe restivenessamong Dalitgroups? Thegrowing crimesagainst Dalits, low convictionrates, and a sense of disen-chantment with the BharatiyaJanata Party (BJP)-led NDAregime may all be contributingto Dalit anger, keeping Dalitpolitics on the boil, a Mintanalysis suggests.

Data from the NationalCrime Records Bureau(NCRB) show that the rate ofcrimes against Dalits has beenrising over time. In 2016, anestimated 214 incidents ofcrimes against ScheduledCastes (SCs) were reported permillion SC population, upfrom 207 in the previous year,NCRB data shows (see Chart 1).

Till 2015, NCRB provideddata on crimes recorded underthe SC/ST Prevention ofAtrocities (PoA) Act as well asoverall data on crimes againstSCs or Dalits, which includedcrimes registered under otherprovisions.

However, from 2016onwards, this overall figurehas not been provided. Theestimate for 2016 has beengenerated based on the ratio ofPoA/non-PoA crimes in previ-ous years. Also, as pointed outin an earlier Plain Facts col-umn (bit.ly/2zpco7A), the pop-ulation projections used byNCRB to calculate crime ratesare not consistent over time.Hence, they have been re-esti-mated for the analysis usingcensus 2001 and 2011 figures.Given the nature of suchcrimes, there is likely to beunder-reporting that may

affect the crimerates acrossyears.

Hence, wealso examinedthe rate of mur-ders of Dalits,which are moreunlikely to go

unreported. The murder rate,too, shows an increase since2012 (see Chart 2).

Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh,Uttar Pradesh, Haryana andRajasthan reported the high-est rate of Dalit murders in2016. Some of these states,such as Gujarat and Uttar Pra-desh, have been witness tolarge-scale protests by Dalityouth over the past couple ofyears in response to Dalitatrocities. The increase incrimes against Dalits in recentyears has followed a sharpplunge in conviction rates forsuch crimes, NCRB datashows, suggesting that rising

PLAINFACTS

m MINT GRAPHITI

The murder rate of Dalits is the highest in the states of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh

SC murder rate in 2016 (per million SC population)

2001 2012 2016

ZeroLess than 11-4More than 4.1

4.8

6.4

6

5.9

7.4

4.1

Haryana

Madhya Pradesh

Rajasthan

Karnataka

3.6Tamil Nadu

2.3Kerala

2.9Maharashtra 1 1.4

Chhattisgarh Odisha

2.9Bihar

3.8Uttarakhand

Uttar Pradesh

Gujarat

Chart 1

Rate of crimes against Dalits has increased since 2012

Chart 3

Conviction rate in anti-Dalit crimes have declined in recent years

Rate of all crime against SCsRate of all crime against SCs (estimated)Rate of crimes against SCs (excluding IPC crimes committed where PoA is not applied)

Chart 2Rate of murder of SCs has increased in the last 5 years even as the rate of murder of the rest of the population has declinedRate of murder of SCs and non-SCs indicates murder incidences per million population of SCs and non-SCs, respectively. Numbers have been re-based to 100.

(in %)

Chart 4

Dalit support for the BJP has been declining(% supporters)

BJP Congress

2007 2016

207.2

184.3

220

200

180

160

140

110

100

90

80

70

2007 May 2017 Jan 2018 May 20182015

50

40

30

20

For 2016, NCRB report does not provide data for overall crimes against Scheduled Castes (SCs), hence, it is estimated by assuming a constant ratio of non-SC/ST (PoA) Act crimes to other crimes against SCs; “all crimes against SCs” include those under SC/ST Act, IPC, Protection of Civil Rights Act (1955) and those under SLL (Special and Local Laws); population of SCs is calculated using the compound average growth rate (CAGR) of SC population between 2001 and 2011 Censuses.

Conviction rate is cases convicted as share of total cases tried. Figure for 2016 has not been included here as data is not provided for IPC Acts against SCs not invoking SC/ST Act. Incidences of all crimes against SCs include crimes invoking only SC/ST Act, IPC crimes invoking SC/ST Act, IPC crimes not invoking SC/ST Act, Protection of Civil Rights Act, 1955, and other SLL crimes.

Note: Instances of murder of SCs under SC/ST(Prevention of Atrocities) Act read with IPC are taken here. Population �gures are estimated using SC population as per Census 2001 and 2011. Source: NCRB, CMIE, Lokniti-CSDS MOTN Surveys, Mint calculations

Andhra Pradesh (includes

Telangana)

214.6

112

81.3

27.6

46.9

33

20

Rate of murder of non-SCs

All IPC crimes

All crimes against SCs

Rate of murder of SCs

31

23 22 23

3

AHMED RAZA KHAN/MINT