Why do people vote the way they do?

DO NOWMake a list of factors that can influence voting behaviour. Start by making your own list, then compare it with a partner. Once you are both satisfied that you have identified as many as possible, try to agree which you think are the three most important.

Is it because of strong party identification? Is it because of social factors?Is it because of issues? Is it because of a dominant ideology?Is it because they are influenced by the media?Is it because they make rational choices based on where they think their interests lie?

Why do people vote the way they do?

Learning objectives

• To evaluate the factors affecting voting behaviour by identifiable social groups

• To identify and explain trends in voting behaviour in 2010

• To form a hypothesis about likely voting behaviour in May, 2015

General election 2010

In pairs, review the turnout data for the 2010 general election and attempt to answer the following questions: • What do you notice about the pattern of support for

each of the three major parties? Who votes for them? Why do you think this might be?

• What do you notice about the change in support for each of the major parties? What are the biggest changes vs. 2005?

• What hypothesis could you form to explain the pattern of support for each of the major parties?

Con Turn- Con-lead out Labover Lab swing

% % % % ± % % ± % ± % ± % ± % %All 37 30 24 10 7 65% 4 -6 1 4 5

Male 38 28 22 12 10 66% 4 -6 0 4 5Female 36 31 26 8 4 64% 4 -7 3 3 5.5

18-24 30 31 30 9 -2 44% 2 -7 4 7 4.525-34 35 30 29 7 4 55% 10 -8 2 6 935-44 34 31 26 9 4 66% 7 -10 3 5 8.545-54 34 28 26 12 6 69% 3 -7 1 4 555-64 38 28 23 12 10 73% -1 -3 1 2 165+ 44 31 16 9 13 76% 3 -4 -2 1 3.5

Oth LDLab

Gender

Age

Con Lab LD Turn-out Con

18-24 29 34 27 10 -4 50% -4 0 2 11 -225-34 42 23 30 6 18 56% 13 -10 3 7 11.535-54 36 28 23 13 8 67% 5 -8 1 3 6.555+ 41 29 16 14 12 76% 1 -4 -4 2 2.5

18-24 30 28 34 9 2 39% 8 -15 8 4 11.525-34 27 38 27 8 -11 54% 6 -5 -1 6 5.535-54 33 31 29 8 2 67% 6 -9 4 6 7.555+ 42 30 21 7 12 73% 1 -4 1 0 2.5

Men by Age

Women by Age

Turnout 2010: Gender, age

Con Turn- Con-lead out Labover Lab swing

% % % % ± % % ± % ± % ± % ± % %Oth LDLabCon Lab LD Turn-out Con

AB 39 26 29 7 13 76% 2 -2 0 5 2C1 39 28 24 9 11 66% 2 -4 1 4 3C2 37 29 22 12 8 58% 4 -11 3 0 7.5DE 31 40 17 12 -10 57% 6 -8 -1 3 7

AB 44 23 27 7 21 76% 7 -4 -1 7 5.5C1 40 28 22 10 12 67% 1 -1 0 3 1C2 33 33 19 15 0 58% 1 -6 1 1 3.5DE 32 35 13 20 -3 59% 8 -12 -4 4 10

AB 34 29 31 6 5 75% -2 0 2 4 -1C1 39 28 25 8 10 66% 5 -7 2 5 6C2 41 25 25 9 17 58% 7 -15 5 0 11DE 29 45 19 7 -15 56% 4 -4 1 2 4

Women by Class

Social Class

Men by Class

Owned 45 24 21 11 21 74% 1 -5 1 3 3Mortgage 36 29 26 9 7 66% 5 -7 1 6 6Social renter 24 47 19 11 -23 55% 8 -8 0 4 8Private renter 35 29 27 9 6 55% 8 -7 -1 4 7.5

White 38 28 24 10 10 67% 4 -7 1 5 5.5All non-white 16 60 20 4 -44 51% 2 -4 6 4 3

Housing Tenure

Ethnic group

Turnout 2010: Gender, social class

Voting patterns in Britain were fairly stable early 1950s--late 1970s• ≥90% of the electorate voted for one of

the major parties• ≥ 90% of the electorate claimed strong

party identification• Hence there were very limited swings

between elections• Class was the dominant factor in

determining voting preference with over 2/3 of the working class consistently voting Labour

How have voting patterns changed?

PartyMiddle class

(ABC1)

Skilled working class (C2)

Unskilled working class

(DE)Conservative1992 54 39 311997 39 27 212001 38 29 242005 37 33 252010 39 37 31Labour1992 22 40 491997 34 50 592001 34 49 552005 31 40 482010 27 29 40

How have voting patterns changed?

From the late 1970s onwards, the nature of voting behaviour has changed significantly• Party identification has

declined dramatically, with ≤40% of the population claiming to support a party

• The percentage of ‘swing’ and/or tactical voters has therefore risen dramatically

How have voting patterns changed?

Party

2010A 2015P 2015P vs 2010A

Votes Seats Votes Seats Gains LossesNet

change

Conservative 36.97% 307 30.85% 242 16 -81 -65

Labour 29.66% 258 34.03% 321 93 -30 63

LibDem 23.56% 57 8.52% 19 0 -38 -38

UKIP 3.17% 0 15.55% 0 0 0 0

SNP 2.26% 9 4.39% 49 41 -1 40

Other 4.37% 19 6.65% 19

What are we expecting this time?

Pollsters don’t always get in right. The BBC conducted analysis of how accurate each of the major polling companies was in 2010. According to this analysis, the average polling error of each of the major companies was: • Ipsos-MORI: 2.0• ICM: 2.0• Populus: 2.0• ComRes: 2.3• YouGov: 3.0

Beware predictions …

Working in groups, research the voting intentions of one of the following social groups: − Middle class white voters− Working class white voters− Muslim voters (all social classes)− Female voters (all social classes)− Older voters (over 50s)

A good place to start is with the polling companies. The leading UK pollsters are: Ipsos-MORI, ICM Unlimited, Populus, ComRes, and YouGov

Why do people vote the way they do?

We also need to explain why this particular group is likely to vote in a particular way. What are the issues that seem to drive voting behaviour for your particular demographic group.

Why do people vote the way they do?

Feedback

• Report back on your social group.