Why is the Birth Rate in Japan so Low and What Can Be Done?Group 4Fu Wen, Chen & Chun Yao Chiu

2015.08.06

DEFINITION : Birth Rate

the number of live births per thousand of population per year.

DEFINITION:Total Fertility Ratethe average number of children that a women is estimated to give birth to in her lifetime 

The population pyramid of Japan

Replacement rate• Two people -> one baby

• Two babies born per woman keep the population constant.

• Below 2% since 1978.

A Record Low of 1.26 in 2005

• 2013, Japan’s “total fertility rate,” was 1.43

• fell by 0.01 point in 2014 from the previous year to 1.42

• It is seen likely that the number of newborns — which fell 26,284 in 2014 from the previous year to 1,003,532 — will dip below 1 million as early as this year.

Replacement-level fertility• This is below the 2.07 to 2.08 children necessary to maintain the

population, also known as replacement-level fertility.

• The goal is to maintain the population at 100 million in 2060 — compared with 126.88 million today

• 1.39 rate in Japan as of 2011: 1.20 in Singapore, 1.24 in South Korea, 1.07 in Taiwan, and 1.20 in Hong Kong

Number of Births and Fertility Rate

A Population of 97 Million in 2050•  Japanese population peaked in 2010, at 128 million

• by 2040 the population will be 107.2 million—more than 20 million lower than the current level

• decrease, estimating that the population will have slipped below the 100 million mark by 2050, to 97 million.

Japanese population

France: A Model of Success

• offering families benefits that become increasingly advantageous as the size of the family increases

• make it easier to balance work and family that offers parents more choices with regard to the relationship between employment and childbirth and child-raising.

Change in Total Fertility Rate Among Industrialized Countries

Various reasons have been cited for the population decline, including:• The rising cost of childbirth and

child-raising

• The increasing number of women in the workforce

• The later average age of marriage

• The increasing number of unmarried people

What should the government do?• Coping with Dwindling Population

• Coping with the low birth rate

Coping with Dwindling Population• What Japanese society is facing is hyper-aging and population decline.

• Political Impact• International terms• Domestic politics

• Economic Impact

• Social Security

• Etc…

Political Impact—international terms• Demographic aging and population loss have a negative impact on

economic growth, so a decline in national power seems all but inevitable.

• Even  immigrants cannot solve this problem, the first priority should be boosting the labor force participation rate among Japanese citizens.

Political Impact– domestic politics• One major concern is mounting inter generational conflict over allocation of

resources and burdens.

• The portion of the electorate occupied by the elderly is expected to rise from 28.0% in 2010 to 38.8% in 2035 and a full 45.8% in 2060

• The government will find it increasingly difficult to adopt policies that work to elders’ disadvantage. It will be more inclined than ever to “kick the can down the road” when it comes to such cost saving measures as reducing benefits and raising medical pays.

• the tendency will be, increasingly, to shift the burden to future generations.

• The only alternative is for current voters to recognize the urgency of the problem and realize that they have a responsibility to deal with the problem in their own lifetime.

Economical Impact• Basic 3 sources• Capital accumulation• Labor• Technological progress

• So, what is japan performance?

Economic Growth

technological progress

labor

capital accumulation

Economical Impact• A decline in the working-age population will lead to a drop in the

savings rate.

• A 37.55 million drop in the working-age population between 2010 and 2060 is sure to cut into the labor force, since the latter is proportionate to the former.

• Demographic aging could generally be expected tohave a negative impact on the rate at which advancesin technology

Economic impact• What can be done to mitigate the economic impact of hyper-aging and

population decline?

1. Boosting the labor force participation rate • Increasing labor force participation of women and those aged 60 and older,

2. Increasing productivity• Raise the quality of school education—at the primary and secondary as well as the

university level• Government can also promote higher productivity through deregulation and tax

breaks to encourage technological development

Social Security• This raises serious problems for Japan because the social security

system relies so heavily on the economic output of those currently working to support the elder who are not working.

• 4 crucial point• Shift to a more holistic, patient-centered model of health care.• Stress in relation to health care is the need to focus simultaneously on quality and

efficiency. • Emphasized is the pressing need for measures to secure adequate health care

personnel amid a dwindling labor force.• Address the issue of generational equity in the distribution of the health care

burden

Coping with the low birth rate• Japanese women complained about the cost for having a child, they

think there deserve a better life which without children.

• Government have published a series of law about the raising allowance. To encourage women have baby.1. Change the concept of whole society to let people realize that raising babies is

the basic social responsibility.2. Making policies on the stand of families and children. And the neighborhood,

public group and private enterprise and even the society must support.3. Begin a new countermeasure with low birth rate and support the families rasing

babies.4. Begin a common practice that their child and their life are the most valuable

treasure.

Can Japan Boost Its Low Birth rate?• A long-term vision on Japan’s population trend, compiled by the

government last year, estimates that a recovery in the total fertility rate to around 1.8 in 2030 and 2.07 in 2040 would enable the country to keep its population at 100 million in 2060 and stabilize it around 90 million in 2090

• Policymakers need to be aware that such efforts are not going to immediately halt the population’s downtrend, This means that it would take more than 70 years before the population decline is halted even if the birthrate recovers. The efforts highlighted in the outline must be sustained over the long-term as a key government policy.

Can Japan Boost Its Low Birthrate?• Among these steps to encourage

young people to marry and start families, the outline calls for efforts to increase their job security

• It has long been warned that growing ranks of Japanese youths hesitate to marry due to employment instability and poor incomes

Conclusion• Fertility has fallen below the replacement rate in several East Asian

and Southeast Asian nations; indeed, the birthrate in Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore is now even lower than that in Japan. 

• No other countries have ever been a hyper-aged society except Japan.

• The world is watching closely to see how Japan respond to the challenge of hyper-aging and demographic decline

• One of the frightening things about demographic crises is that by the time people see them coming, there is little they can do to prevent them. Although many conditions can appear before it happens, we should visualize and prepare ourselves for the results.

Thank you for the listening!