WHY THE DROP WHY THE DROP IN CRIME?IN CRIME?

Executive Issues Seminar SeriesExecutive Issues Seminar Series

19971997

Law Enforcement Management Institute of Texas

Sam Houston State University

CRIME TRENDSCRIME TRENDS

Dr. Larry Hoover

Police Research Center

Sam Houston State University

POSSIBLE EXPLANATIONS

• Social-demographic Trends

• Economic Conditions

• Drug Use Prevalence

• Incarceration Rates

• Police Programs.

TWO CONTRASTING MEASURES

UNIFORM CRIME REPORTS

Offenses Known to the Police

Part I and Part II Catagories

Hierarchy Rule

Counts Both Personal & Business

Part I Offenses : Murder, Rape, Robbery, Agg Assault, Burglary, Motor Vehicle Theft, Larceny, (Arson).

NATIONAL CRIME VICTIMIZATION SURVEY

Census Bureau Telephone Survey

Rotating Sample of 56,000 Households

Victimization of persons and household for: Rape, Robbery, Assault, Personal Theft, Household Theft, Burglary, Motor Vehicle Theft.

LIMITATIONS OF THE UCR• Offense Classification is

Subject to Bias & Inconsistency

• Varies with Citizen Propensity to Report

• Varies with Police Propensity to Record

• Part I Catagory Skewed by Larceny.

CRIME INDEX OFFENSES 1997 Percent Distribution

Source: 1997 UCR

Motor Vehicle Theft10.3%

Robbery3.8%

Forcible Rape0.7%

Murder0.1%

Larceny-Theft58.6%

Aggravated Assault7.8%

Burglary18.7%

LIMITATION OF THE NCVS

• Does Not Count Business Crime

• Subject to Recall Inconsistency, Including Telescoping

• Significant Variation When Queries Are Rephrased, Redesign in 1994 Complicates Prior Comparisons

• Measures Only Victimizations of Those Over 12 Yrs., National Sample Only.

GENERAL OBSERVATIONS REGARDING UCR TRENDS

• Overall Rate Nearly Tripled from 1960 to 1975, relatively stable from 1975 until 1985, then increased by 13% 1985-91

• Murder Rate Dropped 20% from 1980 to 1995, Now the Same as the 1970’s

• Serious Violent Crime Rate Peaked in 1991, Has Dropped 10% Since Then, But Is Still 40% Higher Than In 1975

• Crimes Reported to the Police Have Dropped in 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995.

GENERAL OBSERVATIONS REGARDING NCVS TRENDS

• Shows Gradual Decrease in Property Crime Except Auto Theft from 1984 to 1992

• Slight Increase in Violent Crime During Same Period

• Redesigned in 1993

• A 4.5% Decrease in Property Crime from 1993 to 1994, a Slight Decrease in Violent Crime

• A 9% Decrease in Property Crime from 1994 to 1995, a 12% Decrease in Violent Crime.

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

Year

Inde

x R

ate

UCR TOTAL INDEX RATE

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Year

UC

R V

iole

nt

NATIONAL VIOLENT UCR INDEX

10001500200025003000350040004500500055006000

Year

Prop

erty

Inde

xNATIONAL PROPERTY

UCR INDEX

DISCREPENCIES BETWEEN UCR AND NCVS

• Most Obvious Explanation for Dramatic Increases in UCR During Late 1980’s Compared to NCVS Is Police Recording

• Possible That Reporting Increased, Particularly in Sexual Assault, But Does Not Likely Account for All Differences

• Possible But Very Unlikely That Differences in Crime Targets (Businesses) Account for Some Difference.

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

7500

8000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

Year

Rate

STATEWIDE UCR RATE

Change From 1996 to 1997Selected Texas Cities

Amarillo -7.8%

Lubbock -1.4%

Brownsville -6.3%

McAllen -13.3%

Dallas +0.2%

Fort Worth-10.1%

Garland -8.9%

Grand Prairie +8.2%

Killeen +2.4%

San Angelo -6.3%

Longview -9.0%

Tyler +4.1%

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

Year

UC

R R

ate

STATEWIDE

AUSTIN

DALLAS

EL PASO

FT WORTH

HOUSTON

SAN ANTONIO

TEXAS MSA CRIME RATE TRENDS

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

ST

AT

EW

IDE

AU

ST

IN

DA

LLA

S

EL

PA

SO

FT

WO

RT

H

HO

US

TO

N

SA

N A

NT

ON

IO

MSA

% D

EC

RE

AS

EUCR DECLINE 1990-97