THE HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION CHALLENGE

WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT THE CAUSESWHAT’S WORKING

JOANNA H. FOXNOVEMBER 17, 2011

ATLANTA, GA

Why the Nation’s Graduation Challenge Matters There is no work in the 21st century

without a high school diploma and little work to support a family without some post-secondary schooling or training

This cuts off individual’s access to the American Dream, fractures communities, and weakens the nation

The Size of the Nation’s Graduation Challenge

4 million high school students in class of 2010

3 million will receive diplomas 75 percent overall graduation rate 60 percent graduation rate for low

income and minority students Grad gap = approximately 1 million

students annually without high school diplomas

U.S. is now 16th in the world for 25-34 year olds with college degrees

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Dropping Out is a Challenge Across the Country: Class of 2006

Promoting Power of High Schools by County

Weak Promoting Power High School0-60%61-70%71-80%81-89%90% or more

Progress is Possible: Changes in Weak Promoting Power High Schools 2002 to 2009

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A U.S. Cohort, from Grade 1 to Diploma

1,248,108 360,674

9th Graders to Diploma Gap

12 Graders to Diploma Gap

Current Graduation Gap

A Georgia Cohort – from Grade 1 to Diploma

57,240 8,128

9th Graders to Diploma Gap

12 Graders to Diploma Gap

Current Graduation Gap

Georgia’s Trends by Different Measures

Sample Text

Trends –10 County Metro Atlanta and Rest of GA

Sample Text

What do we know about the reasons youth drop out of school?

Indicators and Influencers of Student Disengagement? (Yes and No?…)

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Special Education, ESLStandardized Test Scores

Course Failure Core Courses

Elective Courses

Poor AttendanceOverage: 1–2 years, 2

years+

BehaviorRepeaters

Ninth Grade Repeaters

Behavior MarksSuspensions

GenderSocio-economic

StatusParental Education

Dropouts’ Reasons For Leaving School Without a Diploma

Top Factors Identified by Dropouts (Silent Epidemic)

Early Dropouts’ Reports About Why They Leave Before 10th Grade Ends

)))

Boys Girls• Didn’t like school 58% 44%• Couldn’t get along with teachers 52% 17%• Felt didn’t belong at school 31% 14%• Couldn’t get along with peers 18% 22%• Suspended too often 19% 13%• Failing school 46% 33%• Couldn’t keep up with work 38% 25% Consult Grad Nation Tool 12 for further data. Source of table is NELS:88. Two Years Later, National Center for Education Statistics

From NELS 88: Two Years Later: Cognitive Gains and School Transitions (an on-going longitudinal study by the National Center for Education Statistics)

Consult Grad Nation Tool 12, for a more complete table

What We’ve Learned

Unlike the common cold, symptoms of dropping out don’t just “go away” over time

Dropping out is a long slow process Students signal that they are

disengaging or are disengaged from very early on

This gives us many years to intervene Schools can’t do it alone

Trends –10 County Metro Atlanta and Rest of GA

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Indicators K-12

Early Warning Indicators of Student Disengagement – the ABC’s

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Attendance

Behavior

Course Performance

Student Engagem

ent

BA

BC

Quantifying the ABC’s

Attendance – Missing more than 20 days or 10 percent of school

Behavior – Two or more behavior incidents, or moderate but sustained classroom misbehavior

Course-passing – Failing math or English in grades 6-9

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Students Chronically Absent in Kindergarten & 1st Grade Much Less Likely to Read Proficiently in 3rd Grade

No risk Missed less than 5% of school in K & 1st tSmall risk Missed 5-9% of days in both K & 1st

Moderate risk 5-9% of days absent in 1 year &10 % in 1 year

High risk Missed 10% or more in K & 1st Source: Applied Survey Research & Attendance Works (April 2011)

Chronically Absent Sixth Graders Have Lower Graduation Rates

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Dropout Rates by Sixth Grade Attendance(Baltimore City Public Schools, 1990–2000 Sixth Grade Cohort)

Severely Chronically

Absent

ChronicallyAbsent

NotChronically

Absent

Source: Baltimore Education Research Consortium SY 2009–2010

Outcomes for Students with One or More Suspensions in Sixth Grade: Philadelphia

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22From Fast Facts www.mdrc.org

9th Grade Indicators

Students who miss two or more weeks per semester during 9th grade flunk on average at least two classes – even if these students come to 9th grade with high test scores

(Allensworth and Easton, 2007, Consortium on Chicago School Research at the University of Chicago)

Other Ninth Grade Indicators of Dropout Risk

Ninth graders with less than a C - average are more likely to drop out than to graduate.

Ninth graders with GPAs in the C – to D+ range (about ¼ of all ninth graders) who miss 1 to 2 weeks of school per semester need extensive support.

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Allensworth, E. M., & Easton, J. Q. (July, 2007). What Matters for Staying On-Track and Graduating in Chicago Public High Schools: A Close Look at Course Grades, Failures, and Attendance in the Freshman Year. Research Report. Consortium on Chicago School Research at the University of Chicago.

The Challenge

How can we, as school, district, and community leaders, policymakers and practitioners use what we know about current dropout trends and the cost of dropping out – for individuals and for our community -- to motivate greater change in our schools, districts, region and state?25

High rates of chronic absence often go unnoticed

In NYC 200,000 students miss a month of more of school

In Maryland, 83,000 do so -- nearly 20 percent of high school students

In Baltimore, 40 percent of students in a 6th grade cohort missed a year or more of schooling over a five year period

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Recent developments make accelerated progress possible:

Common graduation rate calculations across schools, districts, and states for the first time

Spread of early warning systems Enhanced state and city leadership National non-profits & businesses

focused on increasing high school graduation rates

Unprecedented federal support to transform dropout factories & feeder schools

Accelerating Progress is Possible

Civic Marshall Plan Benchmarks of Progress To earn 600,000 more diplomas for the Class of 2020 than

the Class of 2008, we set benchmarks along the way: By 2012, more students reading on grade level by

beginning of 5th grade; chronic absenteeism significantly reduced; needs assessments conducted for all dropout factory communities

By 2013, each low graduation school district has an early warning & intervention system; re-design of middle schools; a non-profit mentor for every 15-20 off-track students

By 2016, all dropout factories are being transformed or replaced; transition student supports in grades 8-10; compulsory school age increased to 18 in all states; clear pathways to college and career

Civic Marshall Plan -- Postsecondary Readiness

Ensure students graduate high school prepared for postsecondary and career success

College on-track goals for the Class of 2020: During Junior Year, students take college

placement exams During the 1st semester of Senior Year,

students apply to a postsecondary institution

By April 1, Grade 12 students complete the FAFSA application for financial aid

What’s Working Nationwide?

Using data Changes in policy Changes in practice Public awareness Superintendents, principals, teachers

and others in schools and districts focus improvement efforts

Community members, businesses and volunteers collaborate with schools and districts

3-Tiered Intervention Model School-wide: 75-100% of youth Targeted: 1:15 to 1:20

adult/youth ratio Intensive: 1:1 to 1:5 adult/youth

ratio involving specialists (counselors, social workers, tutors) for the 5 to 15% of youth who need case-managed support

Link Early Warning Systems to Tiered Interventions

Use the data Focus on identification and then intervention Respond to the first signs that a student is falling off track Build relationships and systematically apply school-wide preventative, targeted and then intensive interventions until student is on-track Recognize and build on student strengths Provide time, training, and support to teachers Match resources to student needs but practice intervention discipline Evaluate the effectiveness of interventions

The Diplomas Now partners harness and combine their unique assets to keep students on track college and career ready

Core Function

Means and Methods Additional Roles

Whole School

• Research based instructional, organizational and teacher support

• On-track indicator data system • On-site implementation and mission

building support • Scheduling, Staffing, and Budget

supports

• Extra Academic Supports

• Extra Behavior Supports

• National Training and Tech Assistance Partner (Phil. Ed. Fund)

Targeted Supports

• Whole-School, Whole-Child program• 8-15 full-time, full-day corps

members serving as near-peer role models to mentor, tutor, provide behavior and attendance coaching and extended day learning

• Positive School Climate

• Service Learning• After School

Intensive Supports

• School-based professional Site Coordinator

• Highly specialized and intensive interventions via case managed student supports and referral to outside agencies

• Brokered services through CIS partners

• Episodic Whole School Prevention Supports

On-Track Indicator and Intervention System:• Research-based and validated interventions of increasing intensity are

employed until student is back on track to graduation. Interventions are constantly evaluated for their effectiveness.

Attendance Behavior Course Performance

Diplomas Now partnered with three Philadelphia high poverty middle schools in 2009-2010. These schools average 615 students, 84% of whom are eligible to receive free or reduced price lunch. Below are the aggregate results for all three schools from the 2009-10 School year.

Diplomas Now Sample Results: Philadelphia Middle Schools

# of Students with less than 80% Attendance

# of Students with 3 or more negative behavior marks

June 2009 June 2010 June 2009 June 2010

82% Reduction

78% Reduction

52% Reduction55%

Reduction

MathEnglish

# of Students receiving an F in Math or English

June 2009 June 20100

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

20

40

60

80

100

05

101520253035

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Schools + Communities CAN Make a Difference

Characteristics of Successful Attendance Initiatives

Partner with community agencies to help families carry out their responsibility to get children to school. Make attendance a priority, set targets and monitor progress over time. Engage parents and students in identifying and addressing school, family, and community issues that contribute to chronic absence.Clearly communicate expectations for attendance to students and families.Begin early, ideally in Pre-K. Combine targeted interventions with universal strategies that nurture an engaged learning environment, build a culture of attendance and ensure physical health and safety at school. Offer positive supports before punitive action.

United Way – 1 million new adult volunteers Communities in Schools – program

expansion BGCA– outcome-driven focus and BE GREAT:

Graduate! NASBE – Project Pass NCSL – Task Force on School Dropout

Prevention and Recovery City Year – national alignment to CMP

benchmarks

National Efforts

AT&T – CMP funding and support; data-driven enterprise

Bush Institute – Middle School Matters Jobs for the Future – Back on Track to College

program Target – Read With Me initiative Annie E. Casey Foundation – Campaign for

Grade Level Reading Pearson – CMP funding and support NSBA – Data First training for school boards Big Brothers Big Sisters: -- national

alignment to CMP

National Efforts

Room for Growth in Efforts

Tutoring Summer School Remediation Guided Study Hall/Academic Support Alternative Schools or Programs After-School Programs

Source of data in the next six slides: Dropout Prevention Services and Programs in Public School Districts: 2010-2011, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics

At Least One Elementary School per District Offers: SE All, 20%+

povertyTutoring 93% 85%Summer School 56% 61%Remediation classes 76% 62%Guided study/acad 27% 32%Alt. schools/programs 30% 25%After-school programs 57% 50%

At Least One Middle School per District Offers:

At Least One High School per District Offers:

SE All regions, 20% poverty

Tutoring 95% 88%Summer School 77% 68%Remediation classes 89% 80%Guided study/acad. support 27% 59%Alternative schools, programs 30% 76%After-school programs 57% 47%

What Does Data Tell Us About Support During Transitions?

SE All, 20%+ povertyES/MS, student mentor 8% 7%ES/MS, adult mentor 14% 13%ES/MS, advisement class 23% 17%MS/HS, student mentor 13% 15%MS/HS, adult mentor 27% 30%MS/HS, advisement class 49% 36%

Source: Op cit, Table 5

Characteristics of Adults Who Offer Support in 20%+ Poverty Schools

Counselors, teachers & administrators who formally mentor students 63%, 68%, 76% (ES, MS, HS)

Adults employed by the district whose only job is to mentor students9%, 11%, 16% (ES, MS, HS)

Community volunteers36%, 34%, 34% (ES, MS, HS)

Source: Op cit, Table 6

Examples of What’s Working in Georgia

Winning Hearts and Minds Does everyone in the various

communities – the school, the district, the parents, the students, the educators, the business community -- agree that high school completion ready for college and careers is necessary?

Does everyone agree that all students should tackle and succeed at rigorous curriculum? That students should be supported rather than “sink or swim?” That students may need help in getting to school and staying in it?

Policy and Practices Inventory

Do policies and practices support graduation for all, specifically supporting students in staying in school and learning at high levels, not enabling students to leave or pushing them out? Do policies and practices support efforts to overcome difficult-to-change attitudes?

Relevant Publications

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• On Track for Success (November, 2011)• Grad Nation: Progress and Challenges in Ending

the Dropout Epidemic, Annual Report 2010-2011 (March, 2011) and Grad Nation: Progress and Challenges in Ending the Dropout Epidemic (November, 2011)

• Graduating America (2009)• Grad Nation (2008)• What Your Community Can Do to End the

Dropout Crisis (2007)• Locating the Dropout Crisis (2005)

All publications available atwww.every1graduates.org

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Everyone Graduates CenterCenter for Social Organization of

SchoolsJohns Hopkins University

www.every1graduates.orgJoanna Fox, jhfox@jhu.edu