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Potential forthcoming disruptions in market and business
Will 5G be ready to respond?
Principal, Delta Wisdom Chair, London Futurists
David Wood @dw2
londonfuturists.com deltawisdom.com
@dw2
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Newspaper ad revenue
US Newspaper Advertising Revenue Adjusted for Inflation
1950 to 2014
?
@dw2
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Collapse of newspaper ad revenue
http://www.aei-ideas.org/2014/04/creative-destruction-2013-newspaper-ad-revenue-continued-its-precipitous-free-fall-and-its-probably-not-over-yet/
US Newspaper Advertising Revenue Adjusted for Inflation
1950 to 2014
@dw2
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A world of converging technology
Are impacted & transformed
@dw2
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Newsweek birth and (?)rebirth
http://adage.com/article/the-media-guy/print-newsweek-covers/238918/
@dw2
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Collisions and collapses
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/hmv-collapse-live-blog-follow-1534816
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http://www.digitaltrends.com/home-theater/blockbuster-uk-administration/
Collisions and collapses
@dw2
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A world of converging technology
Are impacted & superseded
@dw2
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Kindle books vs. physical books
www.theverge.com/2012/9/6/3298533/amazon-kindle-event-september-6th-video-watch
E-books leapfrog physical books at Amazon
in less than 3 years
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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A world of converging technology
Are impacted & enhanced
@dw2
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A world of converging technology
Are impacted & enhanced
Are impacted & superseded
?
See the steamrollers coming Be agile and strong enough to turn the steamrollers to your advantage
@dw2
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8 important incoming steamrollers?
Are impacted & superseded
Surveillance society, privacy backlash
Technological unemployment
Tech disenchantment backlash
Internet of Things (low power comms)
Collaborative commons, zero revenue
Localism – immersive remote comms
Hyper device-dependency (virtual++)
The financial singularity (BitCoin++) See the steamrollers coming
@dw2
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Surveillance society • “We’ll Spy on You Through Your Dishwasher”
• CIA Director David Petraeus – “Items of interest will be located, identified,
monitored, and remotely controlled through technologies such as RFID, sensor networks, tiny embedded servers, and energy harvesters — all connected to the next-generation internet using abundant, low-cost, and high-power computing”
– “Transformational is an overused word, but I do believe it properly applies to these technologies, particularly to their effect on clandestine tradecraft”
• Not to mention smart cameras everywhere, plus computer vision
www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012/03/petraeus-tv-remote/
@dw2
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Surveillance society
http://venturebeat.com/2014/03/30/which-smart-glasses-will-be-right-for-you/
EyeTap, Univ Toronto Epson Moverio GlassUp Innovega iOptik
KAIST univ K-Glass Atheer One Lumus DK-40 Vuzix M2000AR
MIT SixthSense CastAR Recon Jet Google Glass
Pivothead Smart
+ many more
@dw2
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Surveillance society
http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2012-08/06/wifi-radar
Research by University College London engineers Karl Woodbridge and Kevin Chetty Utilises Doppler effect
“See through walls with WiFi radar”
@dw2
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Privacy battles
Information leaked or stolen
– About our finances
– Our health (and insurability)
– Our business deals
– Who we are interviewing with
– Who we socialise with
– Our political beliefs
Demands for privacy systems
– That are Reliable
– Affordable for all (not just the rich)
– Easily understood (transparent)
Powerful arms race
– Hackers vs. protectors
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Technological unemployment
http://dilbert.com/strips/comic/2011-12-16/
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Technological unemployment
http://venturebeat.com/2013/12/05/khosla-explains-his-robots-replacing-doctors-comment-and-goes-on-the-hunt-for-data-scientists/
“By 2025, 80% of the functions doctors do will be done much
better and much more cheaply by machines & algorithms”
– Vinod Khosla
“80% of doctors will be replaced by technology”
@dw2
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Productivity vs. median income
http://www.epi.org/publication/ib330-productivity-vs-compensation/
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http://dw2blog.com/2011/05/07/workers-beware-the-robots-are-coming/
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_machine
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www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/RAcruikshank.htm
George Cruikshank, The Horses 'Going to the Dogs'
1829
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Disenchantment battles • People don’t find jobs, even after lots of training
– Or are forced to accept work with lower pay – Since software / automation does their old jobs better
• Resentment at perception of “winner takes all” – “The 1%” have disproportionate benefits – E.g. Instagram, WhatsApp – huge prices paid for acquisition
• Flaunting of conspicuous technology wealth – Reactions include muggings, gated communities…
• The re-emergence of Anonymous (or similar) – And/or growth of fundamentalist organisations like ISIL
New social priorities
@dw2
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Matternet
http://edition.cnn.com/2013/05/31/tech/innovation/matternet-drones-networks-gateway/
Where Matternet is going, it doesn’t need roads. But the people there need food and medicine. And these drones can bring it to them The quadcopters are based on already-developed, open-source UAV tech from DIY Drones They navigate both by GPS and by homing in on landing pads, which serve as beacons Matternet’s current prototype can fly nearly two miles while carrying a two-pound load Its first commercial model will be able to carry a four-pound load more than six miles One kit of a quadcopter and two stations will cost $1200 for parts plus labour, and the company plans to sell the kits for $2500 each.
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The Internet of Things • Everything can be located
• Moving vehicles won’t collide
• ‘Things’ will report on their performance / defects
• Big Data analytics highlight optimisations / issues
• Cognitive Cloud computing will spot patterns from unstructured data (neuromorphic computers)
• Full benefit depends on low-power wireless comms
• Requirements on spectrum as well as on networks
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Business without revenues
The collaborative commons
The Internet of Things
Jeremy Rifkin
The eclipse of capitalism
Zero Marginal Cost
Open source, Wikipedia, 3D printing
People with lots of discretionary time
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Localism –> immersive remote comms A backlash against
travelling (because of fears over global warming)
to prioritisation of
systems that allow people to have a high-class
immersive experience while participating in “remote meetings”
http://www.seriouswonder.com /memories-maya/
@dw2
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Hyper device-dependency • Improved device interaction models
– Attentive UX (including eye-tracking); Improved voice interaction – Direct brain interface (e.g. tDCS)
• Devices will, at last, fulfil the vision of “Intelligent assistants” that are constantly ready to give us great advice – Devices central for health, education, commerce (cash replacement)
• Users will feel increasingly smart, creative, and vibrant when these devices are in place – Users will feel increasingly disabled whenever they are separated from their
smart devices (or the networks fail in some way)
• Some humans will prefer to spend increasing amounts of their time in interaction with entities operated entirely by software, instead of with “real world” companions – Extension of current trends in which people spend time with chatbots, AI-
based game companions, and ‘pet’ devices such as Tamagotchis
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The financial singularity?
http://www.singularityweblog.com/bitcoin-the-financial-singularity/
• Bitcoin, the currency, is not backed by a government – Like AI, it is backed by
silicon
• Bitcoin, the currency, works because of Bitcoin, the technology is: – Decentralised
– Pseudonymous
– Near zero transaction cost
“Bitcoin is not currency; it’s the internet of money!” – Andreas Antonopoulos
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The financial singularity?
“Internet is to communication like Ethereum is to agreements”
“Build your own contracts”
“A framework that doesn’t rely on people having to trust each other”
“Pioneering peer-to-peer finance”
“Counterparty provides free, open & secure financial markets on Bitcoin”
https://www.ethereum.org/ https://www.counterparty.co/
@dw2
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8 important incoming steamrollers?
Are impacted & superseded
Surveillance society, privacy backlash
Technological unemployment
Tech disenchantment backlash
Internet of Things (low power comms)
Collaborative commons, zero revenue
Localism – immersive remote comms
Hyper device-dependency (virtual++)
The financial singularity (BitCoin++)
Potential forthcoming disruptions in market and business
Will 5G be ready to respond?
Principal, Delta Wisdom Chair, London Futurists
David Wood @dw2
londonfuturists.com deltawisdom.com
