Winter Preparation for Severe Weather Events DL/NERC_Winter...Oct 02, 2014 · Severe Winter Weather •Purpose This report provides a review and comparison of the previous events

Winter Preparation for Severe

Weather EventsOctober 2, 2014

Jule Tate, Manager of Event Analysis

Elliott Nethercutt, Senior Technical Analyst Reliability Assessment

Matthew Lewis, Manager of Training and Education

James Merlo, Director Reliability Risk Management

RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY2

Objective

• Provide the industry with reports and training materials in preparation for the upcoming winter weather forecasts and entity cold weather preparedness.


• Overview of Southwest Cold Weather Event of February 1-5, 2011

• Overview of Polar Vortex Review January 6-7, 2014

• Winter Weather Preparation Materials Survey Results

• Lesson Learned–Southwest Cold Weather Event

• Assessment of Previous Severe Winter Weather

• Reliability Guideline: Generating Unit Winter Weather Readiness

• Cold Weather Training Module

• Risk Assessment

• NERC Winter Reliability Assessment Preview 2014-15

• Questions and Answers

Agenda


• Background The southwest region of the United States experienced unusually cold and

windy weather during the first week of February 2011.

Lows during this period were below freezing temperatures for five consecutive mornings.

In addition, sustained high winds of over 20 mph produced severe wind chill factors.

Southwest Cold Weather Event


• Impacts Increased Energy Demand

o New winter peak demand were set for many registered entities.

Generation losses due to frozen equipment and fuel issues

o 225 units tripped, de-rated or failed to start

o Except for nuclear facilities, all power plant types including coal/lignite, simple cycle gas, combined cycle gas and wind resources experienced problems

1.3 million customers lost power



• Generation Preparation Many generators failed to adequately prepare for the 2011 winter storm,

including the following:

o Heat traces failed or not adequate

o Wind breaks missing or not adequate

o Insulation removed, damaged, not adequate

o Instrument cabinet heating elements failed or not adequate

o Freeze protection equipment not on hand



Corroded Freeze Protection Panel

Inspect and maintain heat tracing equipment on all generating units.


Wind Break Design

Wind break was too Short

Wind BreakPlan to erect adequate wind breaks

and enclosures, where needed.


Inadequate Insulation

Inspect and maintain thermal

insulation on all units.


Instrument cabinets

No heat lamp in instrument

cabinet.


• Precedence Prior severe cold weather in the same geographical region in 1989, 2003,

2006, 2008, and 2010.

Impacts to generation were comparable.

Finding, Recommendations, and Lessons Learned are similar

Limited institutionalization of the recommendations and lessons.



• Follow-up Activities 13 lessons learned (LL) published

Assessment of Previous Severe Winter Weather Reports 1983-2011

Reliability Guideline on “Generating Unit Winter Weather Readiness –Current Industry Practices.”

Training package from the Winter Weather Operations LL

Annual webinars on winter weather preparation










• Risk Assessment



Agenda


• Background

• In January a mass of arctic air, called the polar vortex, moved southward to the lower 48 states bringing temperatures well below averages in many Midwestern, Southeastern and Northeastern cities.

• In many areas in the United States, temperatures were far colder than those normally experienced in winter, resulting in record winter peak electric demands associated with increased electric heating requirements.

Polar Vortex Review


New Winter Peak Loads

MISO ISO-NE NYISO PJM SPP TVAVACAR-

South

South-

eastern

RC

TRE FRCC

Previous

Winter peak

(% of previous

peak)

99,855 22,818 25,541 136,675 32,635 43,384 42,983 46,259 57,265 36,926

6-Jan-14109,307

(109.5%)

18,500

(81.1%)

23,197

(90.8%)

131,142

(95.5%)

36,602

(112.2%)

43,277

(99.8%)

50,659

(117.9%)

44,871

(97.0%)

56,031

(97.8%)

30,231

(81.9%)

7-Jan-14104,746

(104.9%)

21,300

(93.3%)

25,738

(100.8%)

140,510

(103.5%)

36,079

(110.6%)

44,285

(102.1%)

44,654

(103.9%)

48,279

(104.4%)

57,277

(100.0%)

35,638

(96.5%)

8-Jan-14100,154

(100.3%)

20,800

(91.2%)

24,551

(96.1%)

133,288

(98.1%)

31,944

(97.9%)

39,820

(91.8%)

43,203

(100.5%)

47,005

(101.6%)

45,281

(79.1%)

29,251

(79.2%)

New all-time winter peak


• Fuel Natural gas interruptions: supply injection, compressor outages, and one

pipeline explosion

Fuel oil delivery problems

Inability to procure gas

Fuel oil gelling

• Cold weather effects Wind turbine low temperature limits

Hydro icing

Failed auxiliary equipment

Stress of extended run times

• Frozen instrumentation Drum level sensors

Control valves

Flow and pressure sensors

Generator Performance: Common Trends


Recommendations

• Examine and review the natural gas supply issues encountered during the event.

• Review and update power plant weatherization programs as a result of lessons learned from this event.

• Continue to improve operations management awareness of the fuel status of all generators, including improved awareness of pipeline system conditions.

• Ensure that the fuel on hand and/or ordered for the winter season is appropriately protected from the effects of cold weather at the expected extreme temperatures.

Polar Vortex Review


• Follow-up Activities Benchmark Reliability Guideline on “Generating Unit Winter Weather

Readiness – Current Industry Practices” to identify any gaps

Update winter weather preparation materials with new LLs

Include results and conclusions in annual webinars on winter weather preparation

Polar Vortex Review









• Risk Assessment



Agenda


• June 23 through July 23 , NERC Staff and the EAS issued a survey to industry.

• The online was survey designed to assess the effectiveness of recommendations and lessons learned from the Southwest Cold Weather event of February 2011, published Reliability Guidelines, cold weather training module, and other materials provided to the industry for cold weather preparedness.

Winter Weather Materials Survey Results


• What recommendations or changes have you implemented in your winter preparation process:

Checked that each generation facility winter preparation process includes inspection of fuel supply and refueling.

Ensure adequate monitoring of heat tracing and freeze protection systems is performed prior to cold weather.

All plants are now documenting completion of weatherization activities in the work management system.

Annual cold weather training is provided to personnel.

A cold weather event alert system that is based on local conditions at each generating plant and the locations that are forecast to be affected take direct action once a warning has been issued

We included random testing of black start units during temperature extremes and initiated engineering reviews to identify potential freezing problems or other cold weather operational issues.

Industry use of Winter Weather Materials









• Risk Assessment



Agenda


• Generating Unit Temperature Design Parameters and Extreme Winter Conditions

• Adequate Maintenance and Inspection of Generator Freeze Protection

• Plant Instrument and Sensing Equipment Freezing Due to Heat Trace and Insulation Failures

• Plant Fuel Switching and Cold Weather

• Transmission Facilities and Winter Weather Operations

• Wind Farm Winter Storm Issues

• Electricity and Natural Gas Interdependency

Lesson Learned – Southwest Cold Weather Event


Lesson Learned –Southwest Cold Weather Event









• Risk Assessment



Agenda


Assessment of Previous Severe Winter Weather

• Purpose This report provides a review and comparison of the previous events with

the February 2011 cold weather event.

• Conclusion Of the 11 cold weather incidents documented in the last 30 years (1983-

2013), three cold weather events were comparable in size and scope to the February 2011 event.


• Posted on NERC website on July 9, 2013. Eight prior severe cold weather Event Reports

NERC Event Analysis reported that the major contributing causes of the Southwest Cold Weather Event of February 1-5, 2011 (some examples of contributing causes below)

o The designs and other documentation for equipment were incomplete.

o Industry or in-house experience relating to a current problem that existed prior to the event, but was not assimilated by the organization.

o A process for supplying personnel with appropriate materials or tools did not exist.

o Management's methods for monitoring the success of initiatives were ineffective in identifying shortcomings in the implementation.

o All essential components were not included in the required inspection.

o Management direction created insufficient awareness of the impact of actions on reliability

Assessment of PreviousSevere Winter Weather



Previous Cold Weather Event

Analysis

http://www.nerc.com/pa/rrm/ea/February 2011 Southwest Cold Weather Event/Final_Draft_Assessment_of_Previous_Severe_Winter_Weather_Report.pdf









• Risk Assessment



Agenda


• Purpose

Provides general concepts that may be considered when developing a winter weather readiness program.

Shares current winter weather readiness practices and procedures from across the industry.

To be applied as appropriate based on geographic location, technology and plant configuration.

Reliability Guideline:Generating Unit Winter Weather Readiness


Reliability Guideline

Reliability Guideline: Generating Unit Winter Weather Readiness

http://www.nerc.com/comm/OC/Reliability Guideline DL/Generating_Unit_Winter_Weather_Readiness_final.pdf









• Risk Assessment



Agenda

Cold Weather Training Packet

Refresher

October 2, 2014

Matt Lewis, Manager of Training and Education


Purpose

• Provide timely, relevant information to assist registered entities in preparing for extreme winter weather occurrences.

• Identify key outputs and causes that led to significant loss of capacity.

• Outline importance of maintaining thorough winterization practices. February 2011 cold weather event.

Comparison between 1989 and 2011 and other significant events.

• Discuss guidelines for winter weather preparedness.


Overview of Training Packet


Training Package

• This package offers training materials that are customizable, user-friendly, educational, and ready to use.

• This package is located on www.nerc.com and available for all Regions and registered entities for use in cold weather preparation

• Cold weather resource page http://www.nerc.com/pa/rrm/ea/Pages/February-2011-Southwest-Cold-

Weather-Event.aspx

• Included in this package: Instructors Manual

Presentation – PowerPoint version

Handouts for Students

Links to website with all related events and resources

• This package can be customized to users specifications

http://www.nerc.com/http://www.nerc.com/pa/rrm/ea/Pages/February-2011-Southwest-Cold-Weather-Event.aspx


Construct of Training

• Introduction/Learning Objectives

• Purpose

• Targeted Learning Audience: What happened: Event Details extracted from the LL materials

Why did it happen: Shortcomings of bulk power system (BPS), human performance (HP) challenges, etc?

Recommendations: Applicable functional recommendations will be added to the training packets.

Entity perspective: Learning activities are tailored to include local relevance

o How does this effect/apply to me/us?

o How can we take necessary prevention (reliability assurance) steps, etc.?

Emphasis key learning points – LL from event

o Wrap-up and review

o NERC provided discussion questions


Cold Weather Training Site

Extreme Winter Weather

EventsInstructor’s Guide

October 2, 2013


Agenda

Lesson # Lesson Title & Description

1 Introduction – Objectives – Purpose – Audience

2 February 2011 – Overview of the Severe Cold Weather Event

3 FERC & NERC

4 Precedence – Previous Events

5 Winter Readiness

6 Elements of Winter Weather Preparations

7 Lessons Learned

8 Question & Answer / Supplemental Photos

9 Wrap-up / Q&A

10 EvaluationBreaks as appropriate

Course Design

Course OutcomesAt the conclusion of this session, attendees will be able to:

• Identify the contributing factors that caused the event and the consequences, as described in the event report.

• Discuss potential cold weather vulnerabilities in their respective work environments.

• Identify preventative actions that can be taken when faced with infrequent cold weather disturbances.


Instructor’s Manual

Contents of Instructor’s Manual

Introduction

Course Overview

Training Coordination tips

Course Goals and Outcomes

Trainer Tools and Tips

Presentation Deck with Key Messages


Review of the Exercises & Instructions

Practical Activities


On August 15, 2011, 26 Electrical Recommendations and six GasRecommendations were issued.

FERC and NERC Recommendations

Planning & Reserves (5)

Coordination with GOs and GOPs (5)

Winterization (10)

Communications (4)

Load Shedding (2)

Gas Recommendations (6)*

Source: Outages and Curtailments During Southwest Cold Weather Event February 1–5,2011


Instructor’s Guide


Lesson Learned Review


Summary of NERC Lessons Learned

Plant Instrument and Sensing Equipment Freezing due to Heat Trace and Insulation

FailuresPrimary Interest Groups:Generator Owners, Generator

Operators

Adequate Maintenance and Inspection of Generator Freeze

ProtectionPrimary Interest Groups:

Generators Owners, Generator Operators

Generating Unit Temperature Design Parameters and

Extreme Weather ConditionsPrimary Interest Groups:Generator Owners, Generator

Operators, Balancing Authorities, Reliability Coordinators

Transmission Facilities and Winter Weather Operations

Primary Interest Groups:Generator Owners, Generator

Operators, Transmission Owners, Transmission Operators

Rotational Load ShedPrimary Interest Groups:

Transmission Owners, Transmission Operators, Load-Serving Entities,

Distribution Providers

Plant Operator Training to Prepare for a Winter Weather

EventPrimary Interest Groups: Generator Owners, Generator

Operators, Balancing Authorities

Plant Onsite Material and Personnel Needed for a Winter

Weather EventPrimary Interest Groups: Generator Owners, Generator

Operators


Plant Fuel Switching and Cold Weather

Primary Interest Groups:Reliability Coordinators, Balancing Authorities, Plant Owners, Plant

Operators


Summary of NERC Lessons LearnedContinued

Capacity Awareness During an Energy Emergency Event Primary Interest Groups:

Transmission Owners , Transmission Operators , Reliability Coordinator ,

Generator Owners , Generator Operators , Balancing Authority,

Interchange Authority , Purchase-Selling Entity

Gas and Electric Interdependency Primary Interest Groups:

Reliability Coordinator, Balancing Authorities , Generator Operators, Generator Owners , Transmission

Owners, Transmission Operators (TOP) Distribution Providers (DP)

Transformer Oil Level Issues During Cold Weather

Primary Interest Groups:Transmission Operators , Transmission

Owners , Balancing Authorities , Generator Operators, Generator Owners

Winter Storm Inlet Air Duct Icing Primary Interest Groups:

Generator Operators , Generator Owners


Wind Farm Winter Storm IssuesPrimary Interest Groups:

Balancing Authorities, Generator Operators, Generator Owners


• Cold Weather Training Packet is customizable to fit the needs of your organization.

• Over 80 slides with information on the Cold Weather outage for training purposes.

• 13 LLs for review and discussion.

• Complete instructor manual to facilitate a training course.

• Practical activities to support understanding of topic.

• Interactive links throughout package to additional resources.

• Training support from NERC staff on cold weather training needs.

Cold Weather Training Packet Summary









• Risk Assessment



Agenda


• Reduce the consequence Winter Weather Forecast

Plant Temperature Design

Freeze Protection Equipment

Fuel Supply/Switching

Procedures

Risk Management Strategy

Probability

Co

ns

eq

ue

nc

e


Risk Management Strategy

Probability

Co

ns

eq

ue

nc

e

• Reduce the consequence Winter Weather Forecast

Plant Temperature Design

Freeze Protection Equipment

Fuel Supply/Switching

Procedures









• Risk Assessment



Agenda

2014-15 Winter Reliability Assessment Preliminary FindingsElliott Nethercutt, Senior Technical Analyst Reliability AssessmentsNERC 2014-15 Winter Preparation WebinarOctober 2, 2014


2014-15 Winter Reliability AssessmentReserve Margins

Preliminary Data

All Assessment Areas above the Reference Margin Levels for the 2014-15 Winter


Winter Reliability AssessmentPreliminary Key Reliability Findings

• Fuel Availability During the Winter

• NERC-wide natural gas during the winter peak: 41%

• Natural gas storage inventories: deficit continues to narrow Injection season has exceeded average

(lower gas prices)

Strong domestic production

Mild summer

• Rail congestion could impact PRB coal shipments

• Gas-electric coordination update


2014-15 Winter Reliability AssessmentWinter Preparation Efforts

• MISO Winter Readiness Workshop

Proposal for seasonal DR constructs and better visibility of Voluntary Load Management (VLM)

Ongoing improvements to coordination activities between gas and electric industries

Enhanced market procedures

• PJM Improved data sharing and coordination with the gas industry

Gas unit commitment coordination in real-time operations

Ability to call DR during the winter (new market product)

Implementation of a weatherization checklist and enhanced emergency procedures

Improved availability of operational data

Enhanced interregional coordination and situational awareness during emergencies

•


• NPCC-New England (ISO-NE)

The 2014-15 Winter Reliability program developed by ISO-New England supports fuel inventory and availability by implementing the following:

o Dual-fuel programs to aid commissioning costs, fuel swap testing costs, and costs associated with storing fuel oil during the winter

o Performance audits for dual-fuel generators and DR programs to ensure availability

o Increased ability to call DR during the winter (up to 30 activations)

o New programs to incentivize contracts for LNG prior to the winter

ISO-New England has also modified information policies to allow for improved gas-electric coordination (per FERC Order 787)

• TRE-ERCOT

Improved forecasting capabilities and more advanced communication tools

Winter preparation seminars and site visits to ensure proper winterization of units

Improved coordination and unit commitment procedures to identify short-term outages or fuel restrictions in advance of extreme weather

Improved coordination with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ)

2014-15 Winter Reliability AssessmentWinter Preparation Efforts


Remaining Milestones

• 2014/15 Winter Reliability Assessment November 4, 2014: NERC Planning Committee endorsement

November 20, 2014: NERC Board of Trustees approval vote

November 24, 2014: Target Release


Jule TateManager, Event [email protected]

Matthew LewisManager of Training and [email protected]

Elliott NethercuttSenior Technical Analyst Reliability [email protected]

James Merlo, PhDDirector, Reliability Risk [email protected]
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]

Documents

Winter Preparation for Severe Weather Events DL/NERC_Winter...Oct 02, 2014 · Severe Winter Weather •Purpose This report provides a review and comparison of the previous events