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Without international steering, nobody will protect the eel – an analysis of the steering models governing the eel across Europe Willem . Dekker @ SLU . SE Department of Aquatic Resources Institute for Freshwater Research Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Tuesday 2016-05-31 – London, Fishmongers Hall

Without international steering, nobody will protect the ... · Without international steering, nobody will protect the eel – an analysis of the steering models governing the eel

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Page 1: Without international steering, nobody will protect the ... · Without international steering, nobody will protect the eel – an analysis of the steering models governing the eel

Without international steering, nobody will protect the eel –

an analysis of the steering modelsgoverning the eel across Europe

Willem . Dekker @ SLU . SE

Department of Aquatic ResourcesInstitute for Freshwater Research

Sveriges lantbruksuniversitetSwedish University of Agricultural Sciences

Tuesday 2016-05-31 – London, Fishmongers Hall

Page 2: Without international steering, nobody will protect the ... · Without international steering, nobody will protect the eel – an analysis of the steering models governing the eel
Page 3: Without international steering, nobody will protect the ... · Without international steering, nobody will protect the eel – an analysis of the steering models governing the eel

Sargasso

Page 4: Without international steering, nobody will protect the ... · Without international steering, nobody will protect the eel – an analysis of the steering models governing the eel

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

1950 1960 1970 1980

# ee

ls in

trap

Eel trap at Skallböle, Ljungan, C-Sweden

← 1

950

Skal

lböl

eda

m b

uilt

1982 Viforsendam

built →2 eels1 eel

C. Puke, Svensk Fiskeri Tidskrift 1955 – Uppsamling och transport av ålyngel i nedre Norrland

Page 5: Without international steering, nobody will protect the ... · Without international steering, nobody will protect the eel – an analysis of the steering models governing the eel

Hydropower in Ljungan Hydropower in Sweden

Thousands of hydropower stations

And pumping, and …

Page 6: Without international steering, nobody will protect the ... · Without international steering, nobody will protect the eel – an analysis of the steering models governing the eel

Half of catch numbers is illegally exported10 000 fishers

Page 7: Without international steering, nobody will protect the ... · Without international steering, nobody will protect the eel – an analysis of the steering models governing the eel

0.1

1

10

100

1000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Gla

ss e

el re

crui

tmen

t ind

ex

(log-

scal

e)

0

10

20

30

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prod

uctio

n ×

1000

ton

Fishery AquacultureRestock

Page 8: Without international steering, nobody will protect the ... · Without international steering, nobody will protect the eel – an analysis of the steering models governing the eel

Stock indicators 2015

cur.

best40%

prist.

100 000 tLegend

30

40

50

60

-10 0 10 20 30

2015

Page 9: Without international steering, nobody will protect the ... · Without international steering, nobody will protect the eel – an analysis of the steering models governing the eel

Eels in crisis Dekker 2003

Seeberg et al. 2015

Demand EU to stop eel fishing

What do we want?

Do we understand?

Who takes action?

Sjöstrand & Sparholt 1996

Page 10: Without international steering, nobody will protect the ... · Without international steering, nobody will protect the eel – an analysis of the steering models governing the eel

Understood, certain

Shared

Shared

Typology of Steering Models

ValueConflict

AwkwardDrifting

Utopia

Clash ofInterests

Unclear, risky

Agr

eeD

isag

ree

Power

Central

Central

GoalsKnowledge

FullControl The boss

is

Why nobody loves me?

DisorientedPower

Voß et al 2007 Steering for sustainable development ... J. Env. Policy & Planning

CollectiveAction

BlindGoliath

Page 11: Without international steering, nobody will protect the ... · Without international steering, nobody will protect the eel – an analysis of the steering models governing the eel

What do we want?

COUNCIL REGULATION (EC) No 1100/2007of 18 September 2007

establishing measures for the recovery of the stock of European eel

Article 1Subject-matter

1. This Regulation establishes a framework for the protection and sustainable use of the stock of European eel

ProtectionRecovery

Sustainable use

Page 12: Without international steering, nobody will protect the ... · Without international steering, nobody will protect the eel – an analysis of the steering models governing the eel

Do we understand?

0.1

1

10

100

1000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Gla

ss e

el re

crui

tmen

t ind

ex (l

og-s

cale

)

AdCP AdTC Albu AlCP Ebro Ems GiCPGiSc GiTC Imsa Katw Lauw Loi MaigMiPo MiSp Nalo RhDO RhIj Ring SeHMSevN Stel Tibe Vida Vil YFS2 Yser

0

10

20

30

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prod

uctio

n ×

1000

ton

Fishery AquacultureRestock

Hans Lübbert1908

Bolesław Dąbrowski1952

Hermann Haack1871

Baron de Rivière1840

Little left Good old times

Fully protectedUnprotected

Dynamics not really understood

Climate impact not really understood

Research takes ages…

protect

recover

We cannot recover the eel stock,

but we can protect every bit of it, now!

Page 13: Without international steering, nobody will protect the ... · Without international steering, nobody will protect the eel – an analysis of the steering models governing the eel

EU

Uniform protective action

Common actions- Closed season- Min. legal size- Quotum

Local management, no protection

Who takes action?Distributing control

Horizontal communication not

effective

Page 14: Without international steering, nobody will protect the ... · Without international steering, nobody will protect the eel – an analysis of the steering models governing the eel

EU

Uniform protective action

Common actions- Closed season- Min. legal size- Quotum

Principle of bounded rationality

Who takes action?Distributing control

Horizontal communication not

effective

Page 15: Without international steering, nobody will protect the ... · Without international steering, nobody will protect the eel – an analysis of the steering models governing the eel

EU

Uniform protective action

Common actions- Closed season- Min. legal size- Quotum

Goals2007

Implement2009 …

Plan2008

Evaluate2013

Monitor2009 …

Assessment2012

Principle of bounded rationality

National implementation

Local action in the field

Common goal

Who takes action?Distributing control

Upward communi

cation stepwise

Mismatch between actions & advice,

no feedback!

Downward communic

ation stepwise

Page 16: Without international steering, nobody will protect the ... · Without international steering, nobody will protect the eel – an analysis of the steering models governing the eel

Understood, certain

Shared

Shared

ValueConflict

AwkwardDrifting

Utopia

Clash ofInterests

Unclear, risky

Agr

eeD

isag

ree

Central

Central

FullControl The boss

is

Why nobody loves me?

DisorientedPower

CollectiveAction

BlindGoliath

Traditional, uncoordinated management

old

Centralised, authorative managementDistributed protection, Eel Regulation

short

long

Page 17: Without international steering, nobody will protect the ... · Without international steering, nobody will protect the eel – an analysis of the steering models governing the eel

Distributing control andorchestration are the keyto deal with extreme complexity.

Why nobody loves me?

The bossis

When leaving this room, pleasetake all your belongings with you,and remove your coffee cups.I will switch off the light.

You

Me

Thank you, and good luck!