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WMO
Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)
and its Future Directions
A. SoaresScientific Officer
WMO Data-processing and Forecasting Systems (DPFS)[email protected]
WMO
Numerical simulations of the atmosphere
“In general, the public is not aware that our daily weather forecasts start out as initial value problems on the major national weather services supercomputers. Numerical weather prediction provides the basic guidance for weather forecasting beyond the first few hours.”
- Eugenia Kalnay (2003)
- From: “Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and predictability” Cambridge University Press, 2003, 5th printing 2009
Why a project on severe weather forecasting?
Mandate of NMHSs:
To provide meteorological information for
protection of life, livehoods and property, and
conservation of the environment
Why a project on severe weather forecasting?
Many NMHSs lack the infrastructural, technical, human and institutional
capacities to provide provide high-quality
meteorological services
Essential
Full
Advanced
Less than Basic
Basic
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Infrastrucal Capacity Category
# of
Cou
ntrie
s/Te
rrito
ries
Infrastructural Capacities of Countries
as of Aug 2010 to provide Basic, Essential,
Full and Advanced Meteorological Services
Dramatic developments in weather and climate prediction science
Leading to improved alerting of hydro-meteorological hazards, at ever-increased precision, reliability, and lead-times of warnings
Developing countries, including LDCs and SIDSs, saw little progress
Increasing gap in application of advanced technology in early warnings
WMO SWFDP attempts to close this gap, by applying the ‘Cascading Forecasting Process’ (regional frameworks)
5
Why a project on severe weather forecasting?
Vision for improving severe weather forecasting and warning services in developing countries
“NMHSs in developing countries are able to implement and maintain reliable and effective routine forecasting and severe weather warning programmes through enhanced use of NWP products and delivery of timely and authoritative forecasts and early warnings, thereby contributing to reducing the risk of disasters from natural hazards.”
(World Meteorological Congress, 2007 and 2011)
Implemented through the Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) that applies the
‘Cascading Forecasting Process’
‘Cascading Forecasting Process’
NOAA/NCEP, USAExeter, UK
ECMWF
Global Centres
RSMC Pretoria
Regional Centre
National Centres
Users (DMCPA, sectors)
Main goals Further implement the GDPFS through a three-level
system – the ‘Cascading Forecasting Process’ Improve collaborative work and international cooperation
among operational centres at global, regional and national levels
Improve the skill of products from WMO operational centres through feedback
Continuous learning and modernization Address the needs of groups of “like-countries”
Improve lead-time of Warnings
Improve interaction of NMHSs with users
Identify areas for improvement and requirements for the Basic Systems
Main goals / contributions to WMO high priorities Further implement the GDPFS
through a three-level system – the ‘Cascading Forecasting Process’
Improve collaborative work and international cooperation among operational centres at global, regional and national levels
Improve the skill of products from WMO Operational centres through feedback
Continuous learning and modernization
Address the needs of groups of “like-countries”
Improve lead-time of Warnings
Improve interaction of NMHSs with users
Identify areas for improvement and requirements for the Basic Systems
Capacity development
Disaster risk reduction
Climate change adaptation (GFCS)
Socio-econ. Sectors (AeM, AgM, etc)
Basic systems(WIGOS, WIS)
Regional project management and implementation
I. Planning, partnerships and accountability
Establishment of regional partnership (framework / team);
Focus on forecasting and warning services of 2 or 3 top hazards for the region
Preparation of regional project-specific IP Development of specific Website by RSMC Preparation of products by global and
regional centres
II. Implementation and execution typically 12-18 months Tracking, continuously evaluation, feedback and verification, training and reporting
III. Evaluation and broaden the prototype (return to I. and II.) More countries More hazards Synergies with other programmes
IV. Long-term sustainability and future development Responsibility for management lies with the region (e.g. MASA, EAC, PMC, etc.)
Regional projects
12
RSMC Pretoria Webportal
Since 2006
SWFDP – Southern Africa
16 countries RSMC Pretoria RSMC-TC La Réunion ECMWF, NOAA/NCEP, UKMO
RSMC analysis forecast information Guidance every day for the next 5 days Hazards: heavy rain, strong wind, high seas
and swell, severe winter weather Guidance info made available through
dedicated Webpage to NMCs Links to RSMC La Réunion TC forecasting
SWFDP Guidance Products from SWFDP Guidance Products from RSMC PretoriaRSMC Pretoria
SWFDP – Southwest Pacific
9 SIDSs RSMC Wellington RSMC-TC Nadi ABoM, ECMWF, NOAA/NCEP, UKMO
RSMC Wellington WebportalSince 2009
SWFDP – Eastern Africa
6 countries RSMC Nairobi RFSC Dar (Lake Victoria) DWD, ECMWF, NOAA/NCEP, UKMO
RSMC Nairobi WebportalSince 2011
16
RFSC Ha Noi Webportal
Since 2011
SWFDP – Southeast Asia 5 countries RFSC Na Hoi RSMC-TC Tokyo RSMC-TC New Delhi HKO (training) CMA, JMA, KMA
17
RSMC-TC New Delhi
Webportalis being expanded
SWFDP – Bay of Bengal (South Asia)
6 countries RSMC New Delhi ECMWF, IMD/NCMRWF, JMA, NOAA/NCEP, UKMO
A cross-cutting activity involving multiple TCs and Progs, concerning prediction of hydro-meteorological hazards
Reg
ion
al C
entr
e (R
SM
Cs
, R
FS
C,
RC
Cs
)
Glo
bal
Cen
tres
RS
MC
s-T
C
Global NWP/EPS andSat-based products
TCP
LAM & Guidance Products (risk/probability)
GDPFS
Nat
ion
al M
et C
entr
es(F
ore
ca
st/
Wa
rnin
g B
ull
eti
ns
)
PWS
Ge
ne
ral
Pu
bli
c,
me
dia
, d
isa
ste
r m
an
ag
em
en
t a
uth
ori
tie
s
Capacity Development (CD), including Training (ETR)
Feedback and Verification
PWS, HWR, WCP
Ge
ne
ral
Pu
bli
c,
me
dia
, d
isa
ste
r m
an
ag
em
en
t a
uth
ori
tie
s
Sp
ec
ific
Us
er
Se
cto
rs (
Ag
ric
ult
ure
, M
ari
ne
, A
via
tio
n,
etc
.)AgM, MMO, AeM, etc.
Satellite Imagery
and Tools
SP
Tailored Forecasting Products for Specialized
ApplicationsAgM, MMO,
AeM, WCP, etc.
WW
RP
Research Projects
Flash Flood Guidance
HWR
Observing and
information systems
WIG
OS
, WIS
Reg
ion
al C
entr
e (R
SM
Cs
, R
FS
C,
RC
Cs
)
Cooperation with research… incorporating promising research outputs into real-
time operations …
GIFS - TIGGE - Tropical Cyclone track; extreme events (wind, precip, temps; soon to be near-real-time)
Forecast Verification Research
Nowcasting Research – very short-range forecasting
Sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting
Societal and economic research applications (SERA)
GIFS products
Project framework and guidance
REFERENCE DOCUMENTS:
• SWFDP Overall Project Plan (rev. 2010)http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/DPFS/Meetings/RAII-SeA-SWFDP-RSMT_Hanoi2011/documents/SWFDP_OverallPP_Updated_22-04-2010.pdf
• SWFDP Guidebook for Planning Regional Subprojects (rev. 2010)
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/DPFS/Meetings/RAII-SeA-SWFDP-RSMT_Hanoi2011/documents/SWFDP_Guidebook_Updated_22-04-2010.pdf
Resources for implementation and sustainability
Regular budget
In-kind contributions by WMO Members (especially global and regional centres)
Extra-budgetary funds from WMO Members, and donor agencies (e.g. AUSAid, World Bank, UNESCAP, Government of Norway, NZAid, etc.)
Staff: DPFS (responsible for the overall project), with the collaboration of PWS
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1 2 3 4 5
Year
Fu
nd
s (k
US
D)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1 2 3 4 5
Management andCoordination
Project Implementation
Lessons learnt, so far
Successful recipe – effective framework, real benefits to developing and least developed countries
High impact, cost effective
Visible operational results – increased visibility, credibility and value of meteorological services
Regional frameworks: collective needs, motivation, buy-on, ownership, continuous learning environment for a group of like-countries
Lessons learnt, so far (cont.)
Accelerated technology transfer from advanced global centres to less capable national centres through the “Cascading Forecasting Process”
Model/framework can be applied to any time-scales and a range of applications/user sectors
Engagement with met-groups with regional economic bodies is critical for sustainability
Lessons learnt, so far (cont.) Reliable and largely automated support by global
centres, with infrequent problems that require technical repair and support
Critical role and functions of the regional centres in downscaling and tailoring products, and providing forecast guidance for practical use by NMHSs, and as a central hub for all data information exchange
Limited infrastructure requirements as products are provided in graphical form via Internet (or EumetCast/GeoMetCast)
Lessons learnt, so far (cont.)
Major challenge has been the need for VSRF tools, in absence of weather radar coverage – it has been addressed in collaboration with SAT (e.g. SAF-NWC package – MSG - being installed at RSMC)
Verification and feedback is crucial for fine-tune the products and improve the process
Training (face-to-face, hands-on, global guidance, e-learning, etc.) is a critical for mentoring and empower forecasters
Training activities 2-week face-to-face training
NCEP African Desk (curriculum is now being revised to align with the SWFDP in Southern and Eastern Africa requirements, including WW3 and WRF)
ECMWF annual training for WMO Members
DWD annual training on COSMO (aligned with SWFDP)
Regional Training Centres (training programmes on forecasting aligned with the SWFDP)
TC trainings include SWFDP-related aspects
Webinars
Global guidance huddle
Future directions
More countries, new regions (over 100 countries: developing and LDCs) ~ 12 RSMCs supported by ~6 RSMC-TC and ~13 global centres
Hydro-meteorological hazards
Sector-specific hazards (e.g. agriculture, marine, hydrology, aviation, etc.)
Beyond day-5
Ultimate goal… Effective and efficient global forecasting system
Consolidate the SWFDP into sustainable operational services in all WMO Regions and transition the SWFDP to
become a fully supported global programme
But a global system requires… Sustaining and strengthening existing operational
centres, especially RSMCs
Expanding the role of RSMCs with activity specialization in Tropical Cyclones
Establishing/creating new RSMCs
In-kind contributions are expected to continue on the availability of products (mainly automated systems)
However, with additional regions, more NMHSs, there will be a need for additional resources to support technical and
“engineering” enhancements, and training
Each regional project requires…
An RSMC expert to act as a regional project manager
Regular meetings of the regional frameworks / boards
Development, upgrades and maintenance of the Web site and Portal
Training (face-to-face training events, global guidance service, RSMC training desks, on-job training, e-learning, etc.)
Implementation/installation of proven tools
Verification activities
Implementation/installation of a “meteoalarm”-type system
Sustaining and strengthening existing operational centres, especially RSMCs
Sustaining/Strengthening Existing RSMC
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1st year 2nd year 3rd year TOTAL
Year
kUS
D
Implementation/installation of a“Meteoalarm” system
Verif ication activities
Implementation/installation proventools
Training (various activities)
Web site and Portal
Meeting of the Reg. Board
RSMC expert (consultant)
Expanding the role of RSMCs with activity specialization in Tropical Cyclones
Expanding RSMC-TC
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1st year 2nd year 3rd year 4th year TOTAL
Year
kU
SD
Implementation/installation of a“Meteoalarm” system
Verif ication activities
Implementation/installation proventools
Training (various activities)
Web site and Portal
Meeting of the Reg. Board
RSMC expert (consultant)
Establishing/creating new RSMCs/RFSCs
Creating a New RSMC
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1st year 2nd year 3rd year 4th year 5th year TOTAL
Year
kU
SD
Implementation/installation of a“Meteoalarm” system
Verif ication activities
Implementation/installation proventools
Training (various activities)
Web site and Portal
Meeting of the Reg. Board
RSMC expert (consultant)
In addition…
Increased human resources required at the Secretariat to perform critical functions (coordinate, lead and help further develop, expand and mainstream the ‘Cascading Forecasting Process’ into all WMO Regions and other programmes of WMO), which also need to be funded (~300kUSD/year)
Regular meetings of the Steering Group (every other year) for overall guidance (~80kUSD/each)
Tell us how to fish - Show us how to fish - Fish with us
“ … next decade will continue to bring improvements, especially in …
detailed short-range forecasts, using storm-scale models able to provide skillful predictions of severe weather;
…
“… improvement in the usefulness of medium-range forecasts, especially through use of ensemble
forecasting;”
- Eugenia Kalnay (2009)
Strengthening and sustaining the Cascading Forecasting Process… … paving the way for the future
Improving severe weather forecasting and warning services
Thank you!
DPFS: Peter Chen
Alice Soares
“Spending on improving weather forecasting and sharing data have high returns.” Natural Hazards UnNatural Disasters –The Economics of Effective Preveniton,WB, UN (2011)
www.wmo.int
Thank you for your attentionA. Soares
Scientific Officer
WMO Data-processing and Forecasting Systems (DPFS)