WNFC San Francisco

April, 2014

Learning the right lessons from Fukushima - A new paradigm for a brighter future

The Great Tohoku Earthquake (followed by Tsunami)

• Magnitude: 9.0 on the Richter scale • A tsunami of approximately 15 meters in height

struck less than one hour later • Huge devastation• About 20,000 people dead• Entire communities wiped off the map• At least 332,400 buildings; 2,100 roads; 56 bridges;

and 26 railways were destroyed or damaged. • Electricity, gas and water supplies,

telecommunications, and railway service were disrupted.

• Accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Power Plant• The total economic loss in Japan is estimated to be

about $500 billion• A true catastrophe

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Occurred 2:46 PM March 11, 2011

Consequences of Fukushima Accident

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• No radiation fatalities• Releases to nearby

communities• No long term radiation deaths

anticipated• Huge social upheaval

– >110,000 people evacuated from their homes

– Food production– Social stigma

• Huge impact on Japanese electricity system and Japanese society

Public Perception

• The public believes that nuclear power is inherently dangerous and Fukushima supports this belief

• And why do they believe this?– Because the industry taught them

to………– Even supporters often note that if we

had other options we would use them, but since we don’t – we need to continue to use nuclear!

– there is a common belief that while nuclear power may be safe; we are safely managing doomsday machines

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"Nuclear, of course, is dangerous and has to be treated with very, very great respect,'' he said. “However, the record is extremely good.”(Oxford Professor Sir Chris Llewellyn-Smith, Melbourne All-Energy Australia conference )

UK USIndia Me Fr

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Japan

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Shifting opinionsAgree: Nuclear Power is relatively safe/important electricity source/should build new plants

Industry Response

• Make the plant more robust and reduce the risk of future accidents and in the case of an accident, reduce the risk of releases

• In Canada, the industry is working to a broader objective:“Practically eliminate the potential for societal disruption due to a nuclear incident by maintaining multiple and flexible barriers to severe event progression”

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Important Lessons to be Learned

• The good news is there is no doomsday scenario– Even the worst accidents can be managed

with limited or no fatalities

• The most significant health impact from an accident is psychological due to large and long term uncertainty– Health uncertainty– Economic uncertainty– Is the accident ever truly over?– Fear, depression, addiction, etc

• Significantly more work is required on how to better manage recovery from an accident with emphasis on building public confidence

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What will happen to me?

What will happen to me?

A new paradigm – a changing discussion

• Nuclear power is the best, not least worst way to generate electricity– Economic, reliable, clean and safe while providing high quality jobs to the

community

• Nuclear power is safe– The risk of accident is low and declining– In the event of an accident the risk of releases is even lower– In the event of releases, the industry can and will protect the public

• Changing the thinking will take much effort and a long time but it needs to be done– It starts with the industry itself– Define how to communicate the message and by whom– We need strong global cooperation because it impacts us all

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Thank You

Milton Caplan

MZConsulting Inc. - Presidentmilt.caplan@mzconsultinginc.com

www.mzconsultinginc.com+1.647.271.4442