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Work Packages: 1. Technologies (combination of CSP and desalting technologies) 2. Water and Solar Energy Resources 3. Demand Side Scenario 4. CSP Market Potential 2000-2050 5. Socio-Economic Impacts 6. Environmental Impacts 7. Literature. WP 5: Socio-Economic Impacts - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP
Work Packages:
1. Technologies (combination of CSP and desalting technologies)
2. Water and Solar Energy Resources
3. Demand Side Scenario
4. CSP Market Potential 2000-2050
5. Socio-Economic Impacts
6. Environmental Impacts
7. Literature
AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP WP 5: Socio-Economic ImpactsCSP Learning Curves
)2log()log(
00 )(
PR
PPcc
0.010
0.100
1.000
100 1000 10000 100000 1000000
Installed Capacity [MW]
Cos
t of E
lect
ricity
[€/k
Wh]
PR = 0.8 - 0.9
Source: NEEDS 2007
AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP WP 5: Socio-Economic ImpactsCSP Learning Curves
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Cost
of E
lect
ricity
[€/k
Wh]
CoE Solar CoE Fossil CoE Mix
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Cost
of W
ater
[€/m
³]
CoW Solar CoW Fossil CoW Mix
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Year
Fuel
Cos
t / S
olar
Sha
re
Solar Share [%] Fuel Cost [€/bbl]Fuel Cost [€/MWh] Fuel Cost [€/GJ]
5 % interest rate
25 years life
2400 kWh/m²/y irradiance
AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP WP 5: Socio-Economic ImpactsCSP Learning Curves
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Year
Cos
t of W
ater
in €
/m³
0 % Interest Rate 5 % Interest Rate 10 % Interest Rate
@ 5 ct/kWh electricity cost
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Year
Elec
trici
ty C
ost i
n €/
kWh
0 % Interest Rate 5 % Interest Rate 10 % Interest Rate@ 0.5 €/m³ water cost
AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP WP 5: Socio-Economic ImpactsThe Cost of Not Acting
AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP
Cost of Groundwater
Depletion
GDP 2005 GDP Lost
Overuse Cost of Groundwater
Depletion
Cost of Production
Total Cost
% GDP B$/y M$/y Bm³/y $/m³ $/m³ $/m³Algeria 1.2 90 1080 0.7 1.54 0.32 1.86Egypt 1.3 85 1105 4.0 0.28 0.30 0.58Jordan 2.1 12.5 263 0.2 1.31 0.25 1.56Tunisia 1.2 33 396 0.6 0.66 0.30 0.96Yemen 1.4 15 210 2.5 0.08 0.50 0.58Total 532 3054 8.0 0.38 0.36 0.74
WP 5: Socio-Economic ImpactsThe Cost of Not Acting
Cost of Environmental
Degradation GDP 2005GDP Lost
% GDP B$/y M$/yAlgeria 0.8 90 720Egypt 1 85 850Iran 2.7 193 5211Jordan 1.2 12.5 150Lebanon 1 20 200Morocco 1.3 58 754Syria 0.9 25 225Tunisia 0.6 33 198Yemen 0.6 15 90Total 532 8398
Total GDP Lost: 11 B$/y
Cost of:
CSP/Desalination 1.5 - 0.3 €/m³Savings Irrigation 0.2 €/m³Savings Domestic0.4 €/m³Savings Industrial 0.2 €/m³Wastewater Re-use 0.1 €/m³
Not-Acting 0.6 - 1.8 €/m³
AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP WP 5: Socio-Economic ImpactsUrbanisation versus Rural Development
Urban settlements with over 5000 inhabitants
Recent analysis by World Bank, WWF etc. state that seawater desalination is no sustainable solution
contradiction to literature
AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP WP 5: Socio-Economic ImpactsConclusions
Cost perspective of CSP desalination is affordable (< 0.4 €/m³), while that of conventional desalination is not
Efficiency enhancement and desalination are less expensive than not acting
„Solar“ water can avoid dependency on „virtual“ water
CSP desalination can create arable land for rural and urban development
CSP desalination is a totally over-looked solution to the MENA water crisis
