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Workforce PlanningAn introduction to demand and
supply modelling
Mary Lewis
Strategic Workforce Planner
The purpose of workforce modelling…
• To minimise the ‘gap’ between workforce demand and supply
• To investigate possible future scenarios, using a range of assumptions
• To develop a ‘best-fit’ response“It is better to be approximately right than
to be exactly wrong” (John Tukey)
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
What we feed into the modelling tool…
Current Workforce
Future Workforce
Education Commissions in prior years
- In Course Attrition
Recruits from Qualifiers
Actual FTE per hire
Long Term Vacancies & Shortages
Non commissioned
supplyRetirees
Other leavers (In service attrition)
Productivity Improvements
Population growth
Policy
SUPPLY Assumptions
DEMAND Assumptions
Finance/Employer Demand
PCT strategies and plans,
Provider plans
What makes it hard…• Complexity• Understanding the difference between ‘need’
and ‘demand’ • Robust medium-term demand forecasts • Changes within the existing workforce/wider
economy• Impacts of new policies or introduction of new
procedures • Anticipating and then tackling over and under
supply
The strengths of the South Central system…• Existing workforce data (ESR)• Future workforce data (ISIS)• Modelling tools (Scenario model & CAST)• Collaboration• Workforce Strategy• Robust one-year workforce plans
(Operating Plans)
Looking at a section of the workforce
in more detail...
Case study: the nursing workforce
Scenario modelling allows us to play out a spectrum of assumptions;
• Will non-retirement leavers reduce?
• Will demand increase by 1% or decrease by 5%?
• Allowing us to come up with an answer (number of education commissions) that best fits the most likely scenario(s).
• To illustrate: If employers make a 1 % reduction in the general nursing workforce in 2010/11 (Current level 13,890 wtes) it would be equivalent to a decrease in demand of 137wtes across NHS SC.
• If South Central reduce general nursing education commissions by 5% it is equivalent to a reduction in supply of 27 wtes and this will not impact for a further three years.
Example: Nursing Workforce profile
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Career Framework Xmas TreeJanuary 2010
Total WTEs % Qual % Unqual Wte Cost (£)24827.6 82% 18% £853,723,791
60+(4%)
50-59(22%)
30-49(58%)
<=29(16%)
In a typical year, 5% of the workforce leave for non-retirement reasons, this is expected to reduce as people stay in jobs due to the economic situation
2010: Over-supply? Under-supply?
• We currently have 24,828 nursing & midwifery staff,
• 1,039 could retire,
• Typically 621 will leave this year,
• We expect 948 to graduate/qualify,
• And with Op Plan reductions of 560
At a regional level, broadly in balance.
Putting it all together : Adjusting commissioning numbers with the chosen scenario
Informing Conversations• Benchmarking – Acuity tool, iView, Xmas
Trees for trusts benchmarked – against the South Central region or types of trust (mental health, acute, etc).
• Sickness absence data – High Impact Actions
• Scenario modelling – developing the ‘what ifs’ into stories
