title:

WorkingWithArchivalData:StudyingLivesSageUniversityPapersSeries.QuantitativeApplicationsintheSocialSciences;No.07-088

author: Elder,GlenH.;Pavalko,ElizaK.;Clipp,ElizabethC.

publisher: SagePublications,Inc.isbn10|asin: 0803942621printisbn13: 9780803942622ebookisbn13: 9780585181134

language: English

subjectSocialsciences--Research,Longitudinalmethod,Socialsciences--Informationservices.

publicationdate: 1993

lcc: H62.E4651993ebddc: 400/.72

subject:Socialsciences--Research,Longitudinalmethod,Socialsciences--Informationservices.

Pageaa

SAGEUNIVERSITYPAPERS

Series:QuantitativeApplicationsintheSocialSciences

SeriesEditor:MichaelS.Lewis-Beck,UniversityofIowa

EditorialConsultants

RichardA.Berk,Sociology,UniversityofCalifornia,LosAngelesWilliamD.Berry,PoliticalScience,FloridaStateUniversity

KennethA.Bollen,Sociology,UniversityofNorthCarolina,ChapelHill

LindaB.Bourque,PublicHealth,UniversityofCalifornia,LosAngeles

JacquesA.Hagenaars,SocialSciences,TilburgUniversitySallyJackson,Communications,UniversityofArizona

RichardM.Jaeger,Education,UniversityofNorthCarolina,Greensboro

GaryKing,DepartmentofGovernment,HarvardUniversityRogerE.Kirk,Psychology,BaylorUniversity

HelenaChmuraKraemer,PsychiatryandBehavioralSciences,StanfordUniversity

PeterMarsden,Sociology,HarvardUniversityHelmutNorpoth,PoliticalScience,SUNY,StonyBrook

FrankL.Schmidt,ManagementandOrganization,UniversityofIowaHerbertWeisberg,PoliticalScience,TheOhioStateUniversity

Publisher

SaraMillerMcCune,SagePublications,Inc.

INSTRUCTIONSTOPOTENTIALCONTRIBUTORSForguidelinesonsubmissionofamonographproposaltothisseries,

pleasewrite

MichaelS.Lewis-Beck,EditorSageQASSSeries

DepartmentofPoliticalScienceUniversityofIowaIowaCity,IA52242

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Series/Number07-088

WorkingwithArchivalDataStudyingLivesGlenH.Elder,Jr.

UniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill

ElizaK.PavalkoIndianaUniversity

ElizabethC.ClippDukeUniversity

SAGEPublicationsInternationalEducationalandProfessionalPublisher

NewburyParkLondonNewDelhi

Copyright©1993bySagePublications,Inc.

Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthisbookmaybereproducedorutilizedinanyformorbyanymeans,electronicormechanical,includingphotocopying,recording,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem,withoutpermissioninwritingfromthepublisher.

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Elder,GlenH.,Jr.Workingwitharchivaldata:studyinglives/GlenH.Elder,Jr.,ElizaK.Pavalko,ElizabethC.Clipp.p.cm.(Quantitativeapplicationsinthesocialsciences;88)Includesbibliographicalreferences(p.).ISBN0-8039-4262-1(pb)1.SocialsciencesResearch.2.Longitudinalmethod.3.SocialsciencesInformationservices.I.Pavalko,ElizaK.II.Clipp,ElizabethC.(ElizabethColerick)III.Title.

IV.Series:Sageuniversitypapersseries.Quantitativeapplicationsinthesocialsciences;88.H62.E465199392-30713400'.72dc20CIP

99000110987654

SageProductionEditor:TaraS.Mead

Whencitingauniversitypaper,pleaseusetheproperform.RemembertocitethecurrentSageUniversityPaperseriestitleandincludethepapernumber.Oneofthefollowingformatscanbeadapted(dependingonthestylemanualused):

(1)ELDER,G.H.,Jr.,PAVALKO,E.K.,andCLIPP,E.C.(1992)WorkingWithArchivalData:StudyingLives.SageUniversityPaperseriesonQuantitativeApplicationsintheSocialSciences,07-088.NewburyPark,CA:Sage.

OR

(2)Elder,G.H.,Jr.,Pavalko,E.K.,&Clipp,E.C.(1992)Workingwitharchivaldata:Studyinglives(SageUniversityPaperseriesonQuantitativeApplicationsintheSocialSciences,seriesno.07-088).NewburyPark,CA:Sage.

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Contents

SeriesEditor'sIntroduction v

Acknowledgments vii

1.Introduction 1

2.WorkingWithArchivalData 5

TheLife-CourseRevolution 6

AskingNewQuestionsofOldData 10

TheTermanStudy 12

FromOldDatatoNewQuestions:ChildrenoftheGreatDepression

14

FromLifeRecordstoCodes:TheBerkeleyGuidanceArchive

18

FittingResearchQuestionsandData 20

Conclusion 22

3.RecastingtheArchive 23

FirstApproach 26

Step1:EvaluationofExistingMaterials 26

Step2:TheDecisiontoRecode 30

Step3:RefiningtheResearchQuestions 32

CreatingNewCodes 35

Step4:EvaluatingAvailableCodingSchemes 35

Step5:WritingtheCodebook 38

Step6:CodingtheCase 40

Step7:AssessingReliabilityandValidity 42

Summary 49

4.FromRetirementtoLate-LifeCareers 49

FirstApproach 49

Step1:EvaluationofExistingMaterials 49

Step2:TheDecisiontoRecode 54

Step3:RefiningtheResearchQuestions 54

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CreatingNewCodes 55

Step4:EvaluatingAvailableCodingSchemes 55

Step5:WritingtheCodebook 57

Step6:CodingtheCase 57

Step7:AssessingReliabilityandValidity 60

5.MeasuringHistoricalInfluences 64

LinkingHistoricalInfluencesandIndividualLives 66

NewCodesforResearchQuestions 72

CodingWartimeExperience 74

CodingHome-FrontMobilization 78

Conclusion 81

Appendix:TheHenryA.MurrayResearchCenterofRadcliffeCollege

83

References 84

AbouttheAuthors 88

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SeriesEditor'sIntroductionDuringthe1960s,anumberofmajorlongitudinalstudieswerelaunched,suchastheMichiganPanelStudyofIncomeDynamics,ProjectTalent,andtheNationalLongitudinalSurveys.Takethefirstexample,theMichiganPanelofmorethan6,000families.Fromthisstudycameasurprisingdiscovery:Povertyisanenduringcondition(i.e.,lastsbeyondayear)forveryfewpeople.Thisfinding,whichundidapopularmyth,wasmadepossiblebythelongitudinalnatureofthestudy,whichhasaimedtoreinterviewthesamefamilieseveryyearsince1968.However,valuableastheMichiganPanelis,itwasdesignedtostudyneitherthelifecoursenortheinfluencesofmajorhistoricaleventsonthatlifecourse.Ifresearcherswishto"studylives"withthesedata,theyareforcedtorecastthem,or,failingthat,toturntootherarchivaldata.

ThisiswhatProfessorElderandhiscolleaguesareaboutasthey"asknewquestionsofolddata."Theyexamineoriginalmaterialsgatheredforotherpurposes,inotherlongitudinalstudies,andshapethosematerialsintoobservationsrelevantfortheirresearchonindividuallives.Inexplicatingthemethod,theyutilizethroughoutthewell-knownLewisTermanStudy,begunin1921totrackasampleofgiftedyoungpeople(857boysand671girls)across10years.Sincethattime,therehavebeen12additionalinterviewwaves,themostrecentin1991.ThedataarchivesontheTermanStudycontain,besidestheinterviewsthemselves,considerablesupplementaryinformation,suchasnewspaperstories,spouseandparentinterviews,andletters.Theauthorsdescribethestepstheyfollowinorderto"recastthearchive":evaluateexistingmaterials,decideonrecoding,refinetheresearchquestions,evaluatethecodingschemes,writethecodebook,codethecase,assessreliabilityandvalidity,conductdataanalysis.They

illustratethisprocessintheconstructionofnewhealthcodes(Chapter3),careerpatterns(Chapter4),andmeasuresoftheinfluenceofWorldWarII(Chapter5).

TheextendedattentiontotheTermanStudyisuseful,foritshowsthepowerofthemethod.Ofcourse,themethodcouldserveequallywellifappliedtootherlongitudinaldatasets.Ifthereaderdoesnothaveone

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inmind,heorshemaybestimulatedbytheseveraladditionalarchivalsourcestheauthorsmention.Moreover,astheynoteintheappendix,almost200longitudinaldatasetsareavailablefromanationalrepository,theHenryA.MurrayResearchCenter.Thusthesortofrichanalysispresentedherecanbecarriedoutonmanyotherresearchtopics.

MICHAELS.LEWIS-BECKSERIESEDITOR

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AcknowledgmentsSomebooksowetheirexistencetotheirauthors'lifetimeofassociationsandprofessionalexperiences.Thisissuchamonograph,foritconveysthewaywehaveusedarchivaldatatoinvestigatequestionsregardingthelifecourseinchangingsocieties.Thisapproachhasevolvedoverthepast30yearsfrominformalunderstandingstothestepwisemethodoutlinedinthechaptersthatfollow.TheNationalInstituteofMentalHealthhasgenerouslysupportedtheresearchfromthelate1960stothepresent.

TheinitialproceduresweredevelopedbytheseniorauthorinthecourseofaprogramofworkwithlongitudinaldataarchivesattheInstituteofHumanDevelopment,UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley.Weareindebtedtothepioneeringdirectorsofthesestudies,toHaroldE.JonesandHerbertStolzoftheOaklandGrowthStudyaswellastheleadershipofMaryJonesandJohnA.Clausen;andtoJeanMacFarlaneandMarjorieHonzikoftheBerkeleyGuidanceStudy.Therichdataofthesestudiesprovidedfertilegroundforthinkingthroughwaysoffittingnewresearchquestionstoolddata.TheInstituteofHumanDevelopmentcouldnothavebeenmoreencouragingoftheseefforts,andwearegratefulforthesupportofitsdirectorsovertheyears:JohnA.Clausen,PaulMussen,M.BrewsterSmith,GuySwanson,andJoeCampos.

Duringthecoldwintermonthsof1983atCornellUniversity,theseniorinvestigatordiscoveredthepotentialusefulnessofthelongitudinalLewisTermanStudyforastudyofwar'slegacyinmen'slives.Weexploredthesepossibilitiesmoredeeplyandlaunchedatmid-decadeastudyofmilitaryserviceinWorldWarIIanditseffectsonadultdevelopmentandaging.ThelateRobertSears,thendirectoroftheTermanStudy,haddevotedsubstantialresourcestocodingthe

dataandexpressedparticularinterestinandsupportforthestudyweproposed.Butlittledidhe(orwe,forthatmatter)knowhowmanytimeswewouldbereturningtoworkinthedataarchive.Wecouldnothavecompletedthearduoustaskofrecastingthedatafornewresearchpurposeswithout

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thesteadfastsupportofSears,thearchivistEleanorWalker,andA1Hastorf,currentdirector.AgrantfromtheNationalInstituteofMentalHealth(MH41327)andaMeritReviewGrantfromtheVeteransAdministrationenabledustocarryoutthisresearchventure.Forallofthissupport,wearedeeplygrateful.

ThesuccessfulimplementationofourobjectivesinrecastingtheTermandataonmenisdueprimarilytothesuperbleadershipofCatherineCross,programmerandprojectmanager,whobroughtahighlevelofexpertiseoncodingtotheenterprise.Workingwithus,sheplayedakeyroleinpreparingthecodebookswithpainstakingcareandintrainingthecoders.Shewasablyassistedonthehome-frontmobilizationcodingbyAndrewWorkman,anadvancedgraduatestudentinhistoryatUNC-ChapelHill.Wehavebeenmostfortunateintheexceptionalthoughtfulnessandthoroughnessofourcoders,KarenCatoe,MartyWilliamsDeane,LauraKline,andMichaelRiddle.JoyceTaborskillfullydirectsthecodingunitattheCarolinaPopulationCenter.Wearedeeplyindebtedtothem,andtotheeditorialskillsofLynnIgoe.Collectively,theymadethisresearchoperationmoremanageableandsuccessfulthanwecouldeverhavehopedfor.Asatokenofourappreciationfortheirwork,wededicatethisvolumetoeveryonewhoplayedaroleintheall-importantcodingoperationsofthisstudy.

AnneColby,directoroftheMurrayResearchCenter,gaveustheopportunitytodevelopourmethodologyforpresentationintwoworkshops.WearegratefultoDr.Colbyandhersplendidstafffortheseteachingexperiences,andwearehopefulthatthismonographwillenhancetheMurrayResearchCenter'svaliantefforttocultivatemoreeffectiveusesoflongitudinaldatainthestudyofindividuallives.Agreatmanycolleagueshelpedustoproduceamoreusefulmonographthroughtheircarefulreadingandfeedback,amongthemDr.Colby,TomCook,andJeanneBrooks-Gunn.Wearegratefultoall

andespeciallyforRobertMerton'sincomparableeditorialinsights.Theultimatetestwillcomewhenfaculty,practitioners,andstudentsputthesemethodstoworkontheirresearchproblems.Weinviteyourrecommendationsandsuggestions.

GLENH.ELDER,JR.ELIZAK.PAVALKOELIZABETHC.CLIPP

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WORKINGWITHARCHIVALDATAStudyingLives

GLENH.ELDER,Jr.UniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill

ELIZAK.PAVALKOIndianaUniversity

ELIZABETHC.CLIPPDukeUniversity

1.Introduction

Theoriginatingquestionmuststillberecasttoindicatetheobservationsthatwillprovideaprovisionalanswertoit.Onlythenhastheproblembeendefinitelyposed.(Merton,1959,p.xxvi)

Thegrowthoflongitudinaldataarchievesisoneofthemostdramaticrecentdevelopmentsinthebehavioralsciences.Thepast20yearsofresearchdepictasharplyrisingnumberofstudiesinwhichpeoplearefollowedacrosstime.Thebirthofthesestudiescamehardandslowduringthe1960s.However,expandingfinancialresourcesforresearchgrantsmadepossibletheinitiationofmajornationwidesamplesbythedecade'send.MostnotablearetheNationalLongitudinalSurveys,launchedduringthelastyearsofthe1960s,alongwiththeMichiganPanelStudyofIncomeDynamics.Countlessotherlongitudinalstudiesenableaccesstotheoriginalopen-endedinterviewsandobservations,aswellastoavarietyofpersonaldocuments(Allport,1942),fromlettersanddiariestofamilyrecords.

OuruseofthetermdataarchivesrefersinparticulartostudiesofthiskindthatYoung,Savela,andPhelps(1991)inventoriedbriefly,such

asthewell-knownlongitudinalstudiesattheInstituteofHumanDevelopment,UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley.Dataonthestudymembersfromthelate1920stothe1980sincludeobservational,interview,andquestionnaireinformationonmultiplerespondents.Whendataarebased

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solelyonafixed-responsesurvey(e.g.,theNationalLongitudinalSurveys),theyofferverylimitedpossibilitiesfordevelopingnewcodesandrecastingdatasetstofitthequestionsweposeafocalpointofthismonograph.ForadescriptionofdataresourcesattheHenryA.MurrayResearchCenterofRadcliffeCollege,seetheappendix.

Fromcallsforgreaterinvestmentinlongitudinalstudiesacrossthe1970sand1980s,weturntothechallengeofthe1990s:makingoptimaluseofthesedata.Howcanthesedatabeusedineffectivewaystostudyhumanlivesandthelifecourseinachangingsociety?Thisquestionguidesourdeliberationsinthismonograph.Whataninvestigatorplanstodowitharchivaldatanecessarilydependsontheresearchproblem.Atfirstthisproblemmaybenomorethanahunchorvagueinitiative,anoriginatingquestionthatislittlemorethana''preludetotheformulationofaproblem''(Merton,1959,p.xix).Insomecasesoriginatingquestionsarecoupledwithadevelopedrationaleaboutwhytheyareworthaskingandpursuinginlieuofotherinquiries.Datalibrariesandfundingagenciesgenerallyrequirestatementsofrationaletoenabletheirselectionofthemostworthyapplicants.Butwhateverformthequestiontakes,itprovidesanessentialdirectioninthesearchforrelevantdata.However,thetaskofcomingupwitharesearchquestionisdeceptivelysimple.

Atfirstappearance,itwouldseemfairlyeasytoseeandtoposeaprobleminabranchofscience.Surelytheraisingofquestionspresentsnogreatdifficulty;childrendoitallthetime.Andyet,theexperienceofscientistsissummedupintheadagethatitisoftenmoredifficulttofindandtoformulateaproblemthantosolveit.(Merton,1959,p.ix)

Thisissoinpartbecausewearereferringtoaspecifickindofquestionthatqualifiesasascientificproblemandgeneratesempiricalanswersthatmodify,revise,orconfirmknowledgeinthearea,includingtheoriginatingquestionitself.Suchquestionsarealsosubjecttomodificationorrefinementasoneworkswiththedata.The

moreonelearnsaboutanarchiveoflife-historyinformation,themoreonecanpressaresearchquestiontowardgreaterclarity.Onemayalsoreshapethedataathandinwaysthatwillmakethemmoreresponsivetotheinitialproblem.Thisrefinementisachievedthroughaprocessofcodingorrecoding.Herewerefertotheinteractivedynamicbetweenresearchquestionandarchivaldataasarecastingprocess.Duringaresearchproject,initialquestionsarereformulatedtofitthedataandthedataarereworkedincodingandrecodingtofitthequestionbetter.

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Therelativefitbetweenresearchquestionsonlife-courseissuesandtheavailabilityoflife-recorddatainarchivesorfileshaschangeddramaticallyoverthepastcentury.Thoughatpresentarchivalfilesoflife-recorddatatypicallyawaitprobingquestionsonthelifecourse,inthe1920ssuchquestionsfarexceededthelongitudinalarchivesavailableforpursuingthem(mostwereretrospectiveordocumentbased).However,inspiredbyThomasandZnaniecki'sThePolishPeasantinEuropeandAmerica(1918-1920),researchersinthatdecadebegantouseliferecordstoanalyzeindividuallivesandhumandevelopment.Thestudiesundertakenthenincludethewell-knownLewisTermanStudyofhighlyableCalifornians,alongitudinalstudybegunin1922atStanfordUniversityandstillcontinuingpastitstwelfthwaveofdatacollection(Minton,1988a,1988b),aswellasstudiesattheInstituteofHumanDevelopment,UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley(Eichorn,Clausen,Haan,Honzik,&Mussen,1981).

W.I.Thomas,aleadingsociologist,clearlyexpressedtheneedforprospectivestudiesthatfollowpeopleovertime.Hevaluedqualitativecasestudiesofpeopleovertimeaswellasthequantitativestudyoflives,andheknewwellthepioneeringlongitudinalprojectsatStanfordandBerkeley.Moreover,Thomasarguedpersuasivelyfortheestablishmentofdataarchivessuitedtothetemporalquestionsbeingaskedoflivesandhumandevelopment.Inthemid-1920s,Thomasurgedgivingpriorityto"thelongitudinalapproachtolifehistory"(inVolkart,1951,p.593).Studies,heobserved,shouldinvestigate"manytypesofindividualswithregardtotheirexperiencesandvariouspastperiodsoflifeindifferentsituations"andfollow''groupsofindividualsintothefuture,gettingacontinuousrecordofexperiencesastheyoccur."Thisagenda,socontemporaryinmanyrespects,waslargelyignoredfromthe1930stothe1960s,whenthemodernsurveyreignedsupremeasadatacollectiondesign.Allofthischangedinthe

1960s,asthestudyoflivesandagingbecameaparamountenterprise.

Toappreciatethetaskoffittingresearchquestionsandarchivaldataonlives,webeginwiththevariousstrandsofthelife-courserevolutionofthe1960s,fromtheorytostatisticaltechniques,data,andquestions.Matchingresearchquestionsanddataisonlyoneimportantpartofthisbroaddevelopmenthowever,itisarguablythemostneglectedpart.Thecupboardisalmostcompletelybareofliteratureonproblemfindingandproblemformulation,anduntilrecentlytheuseoflife-historydatafromarchiveswasnotinformedbyliteratureortraining.Theopportunitiesdataarchivesoffertopotentialusershavenodoubtbeenencouraging,butalltoofrequentlyinquiriesandevenshort-termexplorations

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havenotbornefruit.Potentialusersseldommanagetoderiveanythingofsignificanceforresearchpurposes.

Whyisthisso?Aftermanyyearsoflife-courseresearchwitharchivaldata,webelievethatthemajorbarriertoeffectiveuseoflongitudinalfilesatdatalibrarieshasmuchtodowithanundevelopedconceptoftherelationbetweenresearchquestionsandarchivaldata.First,insteadofcollectingdatatoaddressaparticularquestion,thearchivalinvestigatorsearchesfordatathatarewellsuitedtoaparticularresearchproblem.Knowledgeofpotentialarchivesrepresentsanessentialstepinthissearch,andwebrieflysurveysomeofthekeyarchivestohighlightissuesandconsiderationsindevelopinganeffectiveuseofthedata.Second,athoroughinventoryofanarchivetellswhatmustbedonetomakethedatamoreresponsivetotheresearchproblem.Third,reviewingthedataalsomayprovideideasaboutappropriatemodificationsintheproblemformulationitself.Bothtypesofadjustmentchangingthedatatofitthequestionandchangingthequestiontofitthedatatendtooccurinaprocessofrelatingmodelsorquestionstodata.

Eachofthefollowingchaptersprovidesanapplicationofthemodel-fittingprocesstolongitudinaldatafromasinglestudytheLewisTermanStudyatStanfordUniversity.TheoriginalprojectthatledtothisperspectiveandrelatedproceduresfocusedoneffectsoftheGreatDepressioninthelivesofmenandwomen(Elder,1974).Wehavecontinuedtorefinetheapproachinlongitudinalstudiesuptothepresent,currentlywiththeTermanarchiveoflife-recorddataonmenandwomenbornbetweentheearly1900sand1920.OurinitialuseoftheTermandatadealtwiththeimpactofmilitaryserviceonmen'slives,buildingonmorethan20yearsofsimilarworkonlongitudinalstudieshousedattheInstituteofHumanDevelopment,Berkeley.

Wehaveorganizedthismonographalongthelinesofworkshopswe

codirectedwithGeorgeandCarolineVaillantattheHenryMurrayResearchCenteratRadcliffeCollegein1989and1991.Chapter2providesanoutlineofthegeneralissuesandperspectivesinworkingwitharchivaldata.Chapter3laysoutastepwiseaccountofourapproachtotherecastingofdatatoachieveabetterfitwithresearchquestionsonemotionalandphysicalhealth.Chapter4focusesonworklife,withemphasisonthelateryears,andshowshowtoadaptanexistingcodingscheme,designedforcross-sectionaldata,tothetemporalpatternscharacteristicofliferecords.Anycompletelife-coursestudyseekstorelatelivestohistoricalchange,andinChapter5weoutlinehowweusedtheTermandatatocapturetheWorldWarII

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experiencesofthemen.AllthreechaptersonapplicationsarebasedontheTermanmenbecausethearchivalworkwereportispartofalongitudinalstudyofmilitaryexperiencesinmen'slives.OurdatapreparationontheTermanwomenandtheirlifecoursesisfollowingtheapproachemployedforthemen.

Ineachrecastingeffortoutlinedinthechaptersthatfollow,wewerefacedwithmajordatalimitationsinrelationtoourresearchquestions.Suchlimitationsraiseacommondilemmainusingarchives.Howcancontemporaryquestionsbeilluminatedbyarchivaldatathatwereneverdesignedtoanswerthem?Whilethereisnosimpleanswertothisquestion,theexamplesinthefollowingchaptersshouldprovidesomeunderstandingofthedecisionsandissuesinvolvedintherecastingprocess.Weturnnowtotherelationbetweendataarchivesandresearchquestionsaskeyelementsofthelife-courserevolutionanditsparadigm.

2.WorkingwithArchivalDataInworkingwitharchivaldata,theinvestigatorseekstomaximizethefitbetweentheresearchquestionandthedata.Inoneversionofthisprocess,life-recorddataaresoughttofitaparticularquestion,thenmodifiedorrecastinsomewaytoachieveabetterfit.Animprovedfitmayalsobeachievedbymodifyingtheresearchquestionanditsanalyticalmodel.Inothercases,thequestionisputasidetoenablestudyofaresearchableproblemthathasrelevantdataathand.Mostusesofarchivaldatainvolveamixofsuchchangesinasequentialprocessthateventuallyproducesanacceptablegoodnessoffit.

Variationsonthismethodologyhavebeenappliedformanydecadesbyhistoriansandsocialscientistswhousearchivaldatatoaddress

theirresearchquestions.Asarule,however,theseinvestigatorsdidnotdeveloptheirproceduresinwrittenformasalogicofinquiryormethodology.Thepressuresofresearchseldomleavetimeforself-consciousthoughtaboutproceduresofthiskind.Inlieuofformalguidance,researchassistantssimplylearnedabouttheapproachthroughapprenticeshipsonprojects.Inthismanner,procedureseventuallybecamepartoftheoraltraditionofresearchonaparticularprojectorinauniversityinstitute,passeddownacrossgenerationsofnewstudents.

Thisinformalandidiosyncraticapproachtoavitaloperationinresearchisnolongersufficientforthetaskathand.Arevolutioninlife-coursestudiesandtheircrafthasoccurredsincethe1960s,and

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fast-movingdevelopmentssincethenhavemagnifiedtheneedforasystematicaccountofproceduresinworkingwitharchivaldata,withemphasisonthefittingofquestionsanddata.

Webeginthischapterbysurveyingsomeofthesedevelopmentsindata,theory,andmethod,aswellastheirrelationstoeachotherandtoparticularresearchquestions.Advancesinonearea,suchasthedramaticgrowthoflongitudinaldata,haveimplicationsforrelateddevelopmentsintheoryandmethod.Dataonsequencesoflifeeventscallforwaysofthinkingabouttheminconceptualterms,andthendesigninganappropriatestatisticalanalysis.Oneoftheclearestexamplesofinterlockingdevelopmentsinvolvestherelationbetweendataandtheresearchquestion.Theemergenceofnewquestionsaboutlifetransitionsandagingshouldpromptfreshthinkingaboutdataneedsandleadtotheestablishmentofappropriatelongitudinalstudies.Theavailabilityofnewlongitudinaldatasetsmayencourageinvestigatorstoformulatequestionsthatdrawonthestrengthsofsuchdata.Mereexposuretoliferecordsthatspandecadescanprovideinsightsonagingthatshapethequestionsofaninvestigator.Weaddresstheinterplaybetweenarchivaldataandresearchquestionsinthesecondpartofthischapterbydescribingsomeolderlongitudinaldataarchives.

Therevolutioninlife-coursestudiesandtheinterplaybetweenlongitudinaldataarchivesandresearchquestionsbringustotheprocessofaskingnewquestionsofolddata.Anarchiveoflongitudinaldataisnecessarilyarepositoryofolddatacollectedinanothertimeandplacetoinvestigatequestionsthatearlierinvestigatorsposed(Hyman,1972).Thenewinvestigatorthusasksnewquestionsofthedataset,settinginmotionamodel-fittingenterprise.Canweaddressacertainquestionwiththedataathand?Ifnot,canthedatabereworkedtoprovideabetterfit?Istherecastingefforttoocostlyintime,energy,andfunds?Andwhatareitschances

ofsuccess?Weaddressthesequestionsinthelastpartofthischapter.Ultimately,weassumethatdataarchivesareselectedtoprovidethebestfitpossibletoresearchquestions.

TheLife-CourseRevolution

Thedecadeofthe1960sgavebirthtointerrelateddevelopmentsthathaveliterallytransformedthestudyofliveswithinthesocialsciencesandhistory.Newtheoryemergedfromtheintellectualchallengesofincreasinglongevityandarapidlychangingsocialworld.Alongerlife

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spanraisedquestionsconcerningitsqualityandtheconsequencesofearlyexperiencesforsuccessfulaging.Socialdiscontinuitiesatthetimealsopromptednewquestionsregardingtheconnectionsamonglives,generations,andhistory.Outofthiscontextandscholarshiponagecameaviewofthelifecourseembeddedinsocialinstitutionsandsubjecttohistoricalforcesandcohortinfluences.

Asaconcept,thelifecoursereferstoage-gradedlifepatternsinsociety(Elder,1985,1992).Agedifferencesacrossthelifecoursetaketheformofexpectationsandoptionsthatinfluenceplans,choices,andactions,givingshapetolifestages,transitions,andturningpoints.Thelifecourseevolvesoverarelativelylongspan,asimpliedbytheconceptofatrajectoryofwork,earnings,ormarriage,andalsooverashorttimeinsocialtransitionsleavinghome,enteringcollege,gettingandleavingajob.

Transitionsarealwaysembeddedintrajectoriesthatgivethemdistinctiveformandmeaning.Thusaparticularlifetrajectorycanbechartedbylinkingstatesacrosssuccessiveyears,thestatesofmarriageoremploymentandearnings.Butthemeaningofatransitiondependsonwhenitoccursinthelifecourse.Lossofemploymenthasonesetofmeaningsandimplicationswhenitoccursinthemidstoffamilyformationandquiteanotherafterthechildrenhavelefthome.Likewise,lossofaspouseisexpectableafterage65or70,butnotinearlyadulthood,whereithasmoreprofoundandenduringeffectsonthesurvivingmate'smentalstate(McLanahan&Sorensen,1985).

Anumberofconceptualdistinctionsmarkoffcontemporaryviewsoflife-coursetheoryfromsuchperspectivesinthe1950s.Firstandmostimportant,livesandsocietyarenowrecognizedasinterlockingprocesses.Lifepatternsareshapedbyinstitutional,cultural,andmaterialchangesoccurringinsociety;thesechangesoccurinpartthroughchangesinpeople.Birthcohortsageindifferentwaysina

changingsociety(Riley,Johnson,&Foner,1972;Ryder,1965).Second,attentiontohistoricalvariationiscoupledwithacontemporaryappreciationofvariableagepatternsoverthelifecourse.Contrarytomodalnotionsaboutageandlifeeventsinculturesthatpeopleofthesameagemarchinconcertacrossmajorlifeeventsthecontemporaryperspectiveassumesthatlifeeventsvaryintimingandsequencing,withrealconsequencesforpeopleandsociety(Hogan,1981).Athirddistinctfeatureofcontemporaryviewsonthelifecourseunderscorestheinter-dependenceoflifetransitionsandexperiencesoverthelifespan.Variationsinthesocialtimingofmarriage,children,andresidentialchangemaybeexpressedinchoicesmadelaterinlife.

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Fromthe1960stothepresent,developingtheoryonthelifecoursehasdefinedacontextforempiricalinquiry,includingrelevantproblemsandvariables,andstructuredthegenerationofevidenceandhypotheses.Asatheoreticalorientation,thelife-courseframeworksuggestsresearchquestions,rationalesforwhytheyareworthyofstudy,andactuallinesofanalysis.Theinfluenceprocessalsoworkstheotherway,fromnewresearchneedsandquestionstotheenhancedappealofthelife-courseframework.

Twootherdevelopmentsinthe1960shadconsequencesforanemergingframeworkoflife-coursestudyandhelpedtoshapealife-courseparadigm:thegrowthoflongitudinaldataplusthediscoveryofarchivalmaterials,andthedevelopmentofnewstatisticalanalysisanddatacollectiontechniques(Bollen,1989;Mayer&Tuma,1990;Tuma&Hannan,1984).Theseinterdependenciescanbepicturedasatrianglewithpointsrepresentingdata,method,andtheory.Innovationsatanypointinthesystemhaveconsequencesforallotherpoints.Thespreadofeventhistorystatisticalmodelshasshapedtheoriesofaging(Featherman&Lerner,1985)aswellasdatarequirements.

Forreasonsonlyvaguelyunderstood,thedecadeofthe1960switnessedanunparalleledexpansionofprospectivelongitudinalstudies,fromthehugeProjectTalentsampletothenationwidePanelStudyofIncomeDynamicsattheUniversityofMichiganandtheNationalLongitudinalSurveys,alongwithcountlesssmallprojects(Brooks-Gunn,Phelps,&Elder,1991).Theseinitiativesspurredthedevelopmentandapplicationoftechniquessuitedtotheanalysisofeventsequencesandhistoriesindynamicmodelsandtheassessmentofcausalpathsacrossthelifespan(Campbell&O'Rand,1988).Inturn,thedatarequirementsofspecifictechniquesestablishedstandardsforcollectinglife-recorddata,suchastheneedforcontinuousrecordinformationineventhistoryanalysis.

Michigan'sPanelStudyofIncomeDynamics(Duncan&Morgan,1985)illustratessomeoftheseinterconnections.ThisdataarchiveisaproductofoneofthemostambitiouspanelstudieseverlaunchedintheUnitedStates.EstablishedattheendoftheWaronPovertytoaddressissuesofwelfaredependencyandpersistentpoverty,theMichiganPanelofmorethan6,000familiesnationwidehasgenerateddataeachyearfrom1968tothepresent.Some20,000peopleareinvolved.Thestudywasnotdesignedinitiallyforresearchintothelifecourse,butperspectivesonthelifecoursehavemarkedthedatainatleastthreerespects.First,moreusersofthedataaredevelopinglongitudinal

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analysesinthepast,cross-sectionalusesweresurprisinglycommon.Second,questionshavebeenaddedovertheyearstocompleteeventhistoriesandenrichthebodyoflife-recordinformationonpeopleandfamilies.Third,studyofindividualfamilymembersemergedasthemosteffectivewaytostudythefamily,becauseindividualsremainuniqueovertime,whilefamilysituationschangeconstantly.StudyingthecareersandrelationshipsofindividualsintheMichiganPanelclearlyfavorsaconceptoffamilypatternsasanevolvingfamilylifecourse.

Longitudinalstudiesbeguninthe1960swereespeciallyinstrumentalindevelopingnotionsaboutthelifecoursethroughtheempiricalfactsandquestionsaboutlivestheyproduced.OneexampleofthispointcomesfromtheMichiganPanelandcentersonprevailingbeliefsaboutpoverty,suchasthatitisself-perpetuating:Peopleenterpovertythroughmisfortuneortheinheritanceofvaluesandseldommanagetobecomeself-supportingagain.Contrarytosuchbeliefsatthetime,theMichiganPanelfoundthatonlyaverysmallproportionofsamplememberswhoactuallyexperiencedpovertydidsobeyondayear(Duncan,1984).Transientmembersofthepovertygroupturnedouttobeindistinguishablefrommembersofthegeneralsample,whilechroniccasesweretypicallyinoneormoreofthreecategoriesblack,old,orfemale.Empiricalfindingsofthiskindfocusedattentiononwhetherandhowdisadvantagedpeoplemanagedtosurmounttheirlimitations.Whatpathwaysdidtheyfollowtotheadultyears?

Thelife-courserevolution,withitsdramaticchangeinhowwethinkaboutandstudythehumanlifecourse,representsonepartofageneralparadigmchangethathasmadetime,context,andprocessmoresalientdimensionsoftheoryandanalysisinthesocialsciences.Theoreticalideasonthelifecoursewerecoupledwithappropriatedataresourcesandmethodologyfortheinvestigationofagingandtheeffectsofsocialchange.Sincethen,advancesinlife-coursetheory,

longitudinalstudies,andstatisticalanalysishavebeencoveredperiodicallybyworkshops,manuals,andbooks.

Neglectedinallofthisistheprocessbywhichlongitudinaldataarefittedtoresearchquestionsandtheory.Thisprocessappliestocontemporaryarchivesoflongitudinaldataaswellastoolderones.Thechallengeisgreaterwiththeolderarchivesbecausethetechnologyofdatacollectionhaschangedsomuchovertheyears,alongwithourtheoriesandmethods.Weturnnowtosomeoftheseolderdataarchivesandtothetasktheypresentfortheuserwithspecificresearchquestions.

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AskingNewQuestionsofOldData

TheearlyeraoflifestudyintheUnitedStateswasdistinguishedbyasurgeoflife-spanquestionsthatfarexceededtheavailablelongitudinaldataforaddressingthem.Nevertheless,path-breakingeffortswereunderwayduringthe1930stofollowindividualsintotheirfuturewithperiodicdatacollection.TheseincludetheLewisTermanStudyatStanfordUniversity(birthyears1904-1920;seeMinton,1988a,1988b)andthreelongitudinalprojectslaunchedacrossSanFranciscoBayattheInstituteofChildWelfare(nowcalledHumanDevelopment)attheUniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley:theBerkeleyGrowthStudy,theBerkeleyGuidanceStudy(bothwithbirthyearsof1928-1929),andtheOaklandGrowthStudy(birthyears1920-1921)(Eichornetal.,1981).

NoneoftheseCaliforniastudieswasinitiallyconceivedasfollowingchildrenintothelateryearsoflife,yeteachhasdonesouptothe1980satrulyremarkablefeatunderdifficultcircumstances.NancyBayleydirectedtheBerkeleyGrowthStudyformanyyearsuntilherretirement;JeanMacFarlaneestablishedanddirectedtheBerkeleyGuidanceStudyacrossherprofessionallife;andHaroldandMaryJoneswereprimaryfiguresindirectingtheOaklandGrowthStudy(Jones,Bayley,MacFarlane,&Honzik,1971).LewisTerman(1925)directedhisstudyofgiftedCaliforniansuntilhediedin1956.

Ourcommonattractiontothesedataarchivescenteredaroundtheinfluenceofhistoricalchangeonthelivesofmenandwomenfromdifferentbirthcohorts.ChildrenintheOaklandandBerkeleycohortsgrewupduringtheGreatDepressionandexperiencedthemobilizationofWorldWarII,butneitherofthesehistoricalchangeswasconsideredrelevanttodevelopmentalissuesatthetime.Thelargerhistoricalworldoftheinvestigatorsandstudymembersdidnotinformtheconceptualmodelsoftheprojects.

Nevertheless,theinvestigatorscollectedsomeinformationonthelargerenvironmentthatyearslaterprovidedthebasisforempiricalstudiesofdepressionhardshipandwartimeexperienceinlives(Elder,1974,1979,1986,1987).EmpiricalfindingsfromstudiesoftheSecondWorldWarinlivesposedquestionsthatcalledforanalysisinanothersampleofAmericanmenwhoservedduringthiswar.WechosetoworkontheTermansamplebecauseofitsrichdataonWorldWarIIveterans.

AneglectofhistoricalfactsalsoappearsintheTermanStudyanditsprioritiesondatacollection.AlargenumberofthemenfinishedschoolandstartedcareersduringtheGreatDepression,andnearlyhalfenteredthemilitaryduringWorldWarII.Depressionandwarvirtuallydefined

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theircollectivelifefor12successiveyears,yettheTermanStudyalmostfailedtocollectanyinformationonlifeexperiencethroughthe1930sandWorldWarII.The1950follow-upwasequallysilentonWorldWarII,muchtothedisbeliefofsomeofthemenwhoserved(45%ofthesample).Despitetheneglectofhistoryinthestudyrecords,thearchiveoflettersandnotespermittedsomeexplorationofhistoricaltimesinthelivesofthisextraordinarysampleofmenandwomen.

Inourworkwiththesearchivaldata,thefollowinglessonsandthemesemerged:

1.Archivaldataareneverpreciselywhatonewantsorexpects.Giventhis,theinvestigatorischallengedtodowhatispossible,giventimeandresources,inshapingthedataaccordingtoneeds.TheseoperationsareincludedunderHerbertHyman's(1972)philosophyforsecondaryanalysts,thatof"makingthebestofwhatonehas."

2.Thedataathandreflecttheperspectivesoftheoriginalinvestigators,asexpressedinresearchquestions,datacollectionprocedures,andanalytictechniques.Theseperspectivesalsoreflectthescientificandculturalthemesofthehistoricalera(seeMinton,1988a,1988b).

3.Longitudinaldataarchivesdonotguaranteelife-recordorlongitudinaldataanalysis.Cross-sectionaldataentriesandstoragearefarmorecommonthantemporalrecordsofinformationonpeople'slives,andoftenthesecross-sectionalrecordshavetobeconvertedtoalife-recordformat.

4.Life-coursestudiescandrawonquantitativeandqualitativedataandanalyses.Effectiveuseofbothkindsofdatarequirescarefulplanningtopermittheirapplicationtoidenticaltopicsorproblems.

5.Therationaleforusingarchivaldatashouldbebasedonstrengths

ofthedata.Itshouldnotbedefendedthroughattemptstodisarmorignoretheweaknesses.

AnexampleofthefourthlessonatworkcomesfromJohnLaubandRobertSampson,whohaveresurrectedanolddataarchiveondelinquentmalescreatedbyEleanorandSheldonGlueckinthe1930s.Notingthattheywereoftenquestionedaboutthecontemporaryrelevanceofthe"olddata,"Laub(1991)reportsthattheydecidedtoemphasizehowthedatarepresentstrategicresearchmaterials:

Becausethesedataare"old"theyprovideanunusualopportunitytoassesswhetherthecausesofbothjuveniledelinquencyandadultcrimearespecifictoahistoricalperiod.Thedatacanalsobeusedtoassesschangesinthesystemresponsetocrime.(p.7)

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ThefivepointsabovehaveillustrationsintheTermanandBerkeleystudies.Astheoldestongoinglongitudinalstudy,theTermanStudyisourpointofdeparture.

TheTermanStudy

Duringthewaningoftheeugenicsmovementanditshereditarianinterests,psychologistLewisTermanlaunchedastudyin1921-1922toinvestigatethemaintenanceofearlyintellectualsuperiorityovera10-yearperiod.ThisobjectivewassoonextendedintotheadultyearsforthepurposeofdeterminingthelifepathsofthesegiftedCalifornians.Termanbelievedthat,byidentifyingthemostgiftedatayoungage,societycouldensuretheflowoftalenttoleadershippositions.

Aidedbyhisassistants,Termanselected,fromlargeandmedium-sizedurbanareasofCalifornia,857boysand671girlsages3to19yearswhohadIQsabove135(Minton,1988a,1988b;Terman&Oden,1959).Sofar,13wavesofdatacollectionhavebeencarriedout,beginningin1921-1922withinterviewsofparentsandthestudychildrenandanarrayoftestsandinventories(Table2.1).

Thefirst1922and1928datacollectionsfocusedonfamilylifeandschoolexperience,andincludedinterviewsandquestionnairesinvolvingmothersofchildreninthestudy.Fatherswerenotthoughttobeimportantinchildrearing,atleastcomparedwithmothers,sotheywereexcludedfromdatacollection.The1936and1940follow-upsoccurredatatimeofeducationalachievementandthestartofadultcareersformany,whethermarriage,family,orwork.Atthenextfollow-up,questionswereaskedaboutthesetopics,thewar,andvariousserviceroles.Thepostwaryearsthrough1960weretimesofmarriageandfamilydevelopment,careerbeginnings,andaccomplishment.Eachtopicwasinvestigatedbymail(1950,1955,1960).VariouslifechangeswithintheTermansampleandnew

leadershipfromRobertSears,LeeCronbach,PaulineSears,andAlbertHastorfbroughtfreshattentiontoissuesofaging,worklifeandretirement,family,andlifeevaluationacrossfollow-upsfor1972,1977,1982,1986,and1991-1992.

Datacollectionacrossmultiplewavesreliesmainlyonsurveyformsmailedtothestudymembers.Theslenderbaseoffinancialsupportforthestudyandthelargesamplesizefavoredthisleastexpensivemethod.However,thefilesincludearichselectionofotherdata,suchasnewsclippings,interviewswithparents,questionnairesfromspouses,lettersfromstudymembers,otherrecorddata,andbirthanddeathcertificates.

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Table2.1TermanLongitudinalSampleandData

SurveyWaves NumberofRespondents PrimaryTopics1922 1,528:857men,671women homeandschool19281936 1,256:699men,557women education,work,marriage19401945 1,334:749men,585women militaryexperience1950 1,271:716men,555women1955 1,286:716men,570women work,marriage,achievements1960 1,127:616men,511women1972 927:497men,430women1977 812:426men,386women aging,workandretirement,lifereview1982 813:415men,398women1986 805:404men,401women1991-1992 follow-upinprogress

Theletters,inparticular,addagreatdealofrichnessbeyondtheoftennarrowstructureofthesurveyforms.

MensharedworkandmilitaryexperienceswithTerman,frequentlyinrequestsforlettersofrecommendationtoprospectiveemployersorforadviceonpersonalmatters.WomenstressedthelivesoftheirchildreninletterstotheTermanStudyoffice.Thewealthofthesematerialsinthestudyfilesprovidesanoptionfortheuserwhoisnotsatisfiedwiththedataonfile.Aresearchercanalwaysdevelopnewcodesandapplythemtothequalitativematerial.

Thefullvalueofanylongitudinalstudycomesfromliferecordsthatdrawonallwavesofdata,suchasthe13pointsofdatacollectionontheTermansample.Liferecordsenabletheinvestigatortofollowpeopleacrosseventsthatmarkchangesinworkandfamilylife.However,themachine-readableTermandatawerestoredbyeachwaveattheInter-

UniversityConsortiumforPoliticalandSocialResearch,witheachdatawavefunctioningasacross-sectionalentryinsteadofaspartofalifehistoryorrecord.Cross-sectionalentriesofthiskindfavorstudiesthatmerelycorrelatestatesorprocessesatdifferentstagesoflife,asdistinctfromresearchthatdelineateslifetrajectories.Withourlife-courseobjectivesinmind,oneofourfirsttasksentailedpreparation

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ofliferecordsonwork,earnings,marriage,parenthood,andhealthfromthecomputerizeddata.Wesupplementedthisworkwithaseriesofnewcodesonthelifecourseandhistoricalexperience,ataskrequiringanumberofweeksofarchivalresearchattheStanfordresearchcenter.

Withoriginsmainlyintheuppermiddleclass,theTermanmenandwomengenerallyexperiencedstrongencouragementandfinancialsupportforhighereducation.Amajoritycompletedfouryearsofcollege,andasimilarproportionpursuedadvancedstudiesanddegrees.Morethan90%eventuallymarried,andapproximately85%ofthemarriagessurvivedtooldage.Four-fifthswerelocatedintheuppermiddleclassduringthe1960s.Thisclassbiasandthebiasonmeasuredintelligencedefinenarrowboundariesforgeneralization,thoughbothcanbeseenasthestrengthofastudythatexploresthelife-courseeffectsofsocialchange.Menandwomenfromthisstratumwouldbeespeciallysensitivetotheimpactofhistoricalchangeintheirlives.

AttheveryoutsetofworkwiththeTermandata,wethoughtwecouldrelyontheavailablefilesofcodedinformation.Aftermuchexploration,describedinChapters3through5,wefoundthatwecouldnotaddressourquestionswiththemachine-readabledataintheirpresentform.Thedatawerenotwhatwewanted,andthuswelaunchedamajorefforttorecastthemthroughnewcodes.Wedidnoteasilychoosethiscourseofaction,andthereasoncanbebestunderstoodintermsofpriorworkwithlongitudinaldataattheInstituteofHumanDevelopment,UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley.

FromOldDatatoNewQuestions:ChildrenoftheGreatDepression

WecametotheTermanStudyinthemid-1980saftermanyyearsofresearchwithlongitudinaldatafromtheOaklandGrowthStudyarchiveand,later,fromtheBerkeleyGrowthandGuidanceStudies

(Elder,1992).Asmightbeexpected,thesedataplayedadifferentroleinourworkfromthoseoftheTermandata,especiallyintheirinitialstage.

Thematerialshelpedtoshapearesearchperspectiveonsocialchangeinlivesandtocrystallizeasuitablewayofthinkingaboutquestionsofthiskindandtheirempiricalstudynowfrequentlydescribedasalife-courseperspective.Overtime,bothresearchquestionsandtheperspectivehelpedtospecifydatarequirementsandtheneedfornewcodes,astheydidintheTermanStudy.Asaresultofthisbackground,wecametoitsdatawitharelativelyclearsenseofproblemandadevelopedresearchplan.

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TheseniorauthorbeganworkwiththelongitudinaldataoftheOaklandGrowthStudyin1962,duringhistenureattheUniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley,anditsInstituteofHumanDevelopment.TheOaklandGrowthStudybeganin1931underthepioneeringleadershipofHaroldE.JonesandHerbertR.Stolz,thenresearchdirectoranddirector,respectively,oftheInstituteofChildWelfare.Fifth-andsixth-gradechildrenwereselectedforthestudyfromelementaryschoolsinnortheasternOakland,California(Eichornetal.,1981).Thestudyaimedtoinvestigatenormaldevelopmentbiological,psychological,andsocial.Datawerecollectedannuallyfromteachers,studyparticipants,peers,andstaffobservers.Motherswereinterviewedin1932,1934,and1936.Annualdatacollectionswerecarriedoutacrossthe1930s,followedbyfivewavesofdatacollectionintheadultyears,1953,1958-1960,1964,1970-1972,and1981-1982.Thefollow-upsgenerallyincludedinterviews,healthassessments,personalityinventories,andfact-sheetquestionnaires.

Bytheearly1960stheOaklandStudyhadjustentereditsthirddecade,withstudymembersatmid-life.Morethan200datasetswereavailableforcomputeranalysis,butthedatacouldnotprovideaneventhistoryonstudymembers'lives.Forexample,wecouldnotdeterminehowmanyoftheboyshadservedinWorldWarIIandwhatproportionhadbeencalledbackintoactivedutyduringtheKoreanconflict.Nothingwasavailableonthewomen'sworkhistoriesandtheirwartimeexperiences.Thelifecoursesofthestudymembershadnotbeencharted.Onereasonforthisdeficiencyinvolvedthewaythearchivaldatahadbeenstored.

Allofthemachine-readabledatawereorganizedaccordingtoageand/orgradebyparticularinventory.Andmostanalysesuptothatpointhadmerelycorrelateditemsfrominventoriesatdifferentpointsintime.Theinterveningyearsremainedamysteryintheabsenceofcodedlifehistories.Nodatasethadinformationonthesocioeconomic

historiesofstudymembersoronthetimetablesofeventsintheiradultlives.Maritalandparentalhistorieswerefragmentary.Inviewofthissituation,constructinglifehistoriesbecameaprioritytaskontheproject,callingforfreshthinkingaboutprocess,time,andcontext.

Contrarytostaticnotionsaboutsocialclassandfamilylife,theOaklandGrowthStudyarchivesdepictedfamiliesinalmostconstantchange.Fromdaytoday,theeconomiccircumstancesoffamiliesweresubjecttochangefamilymembersenteredandleftthelaborforce,householdsexpandedthroughbirthsandvisitors,andfamilyconsumptionchangedtomeetavailableincomeandmemberneeds.Thismoving

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pictureoffamilychangepromptedseriousthinkingabouthowfamilyadaptationstoincomelossconstructalifecourse(Elder,1974).Forexample,onesetofadaptationsentailedashiftinthefamilyeconomyfromcapital-tolabor-intensiveactivity.Goodsandserviceswereproducedbythelaboroffamilymembers.Childrenandmothersassumedamorecentralroleintheproductiveactivitiesofhard-pressedfamilies.

ChangesinthefamilyprovidedawayofrelatingtheOaklandchildrentothegeneralizedeconomicdeclineandfluctuationsofthe1930s.SomeOaklandfamilieslostheavilyandothersfaredwell;indeed,someevenprosperedbecausetheirlossesdidnotmatchthedeclineincostofliving(about25%by1933).Usingfamilyincomedatain1929and1933,wedecidedtoclassifyfamilieswithalossofmorethan34%aseconomicallydeprived.Thedatawerenotadequatetoarrayfamiliesasacontinuumonpercentagelossorchange(subjectivemeasuresofhardshipwerealsoincludedinthestudy).Allotherfamiliesbecamenondeprived.Thebasicdesigncomparednondeprivedanddeprivedfamilieswithinthemiddleandworkingclassesasof1929.Classpositionin1929thusdefinedaculturalandeconomiccontextinwhichfamiliesworkedoutlinesofadaptationtodeprivation,includingchangesinthefamilyeconomy,alteredfamilyrelations,andthemanagementofsocialstrainswithinthefamily.

Asecondpartofthetaskcenteredonwaysofthinkingaboutthelivesofindividuals.Howarelivessociallypatterned,andwhatdoesthisphraseactuallymean?Theconceptofcareerofferedideasaboutsinglepathsmainlyinthefieldofwork,butlivescombinedmultiplepathsandtheirinterconnectionsovertime.Moreusefulatthetimewerethesocialmeaningsofageinexpectations,stagesandcategories,andsanctions.Asawhole,thesocialmeaningsofageandkinshipstatusprovideaperspectiveonthesocialpatterningoflifeeventsandactivities.Inparticular,werefertothesocialtimingofevents,suchas

marriageandwork,andtheage-gradedstructureoflifetrajectories.EffortstousetheOaklanddataarchivetostudylivesprovedtobeadevelopmentalexperienceinlife-coursethinking.Thisnewlearningwassoonexpressedincodingformsthatbroughtprocess,time,andcontexttoanempiricalrepresentationoftheOaklandlifecourseinachangingworld.

Threephaseswereidentifiedconceptuallyforcodingpurposespreadult,youngadult,andthelateryears.Thepreadultphasefocusedexclusivelyonthesocialandeconomiccareersoffamilies.Inadulthood,theinitialphaseofyoungadulthoodcenteredonthetransitionmarkerstoadulthood(thetimewhenparticulareventsoccurredandthe

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like)andontheestablishmentyearsoffamilyformationandwork-lifedevelopment.Thelaterphasebeganafterage35-40andwasstructuredprimarilybyworkandfamilypatterns.OneofthemostimportantconceptualinfluencesonthiscodingoperationcamefromHaroldWilensky's(1961)LaborandLeisureStudyinDetroit.Wilensky'sprojectaddressedtheinterplayofthreelifelineslabor,leisure,andfamily.Areviewofhiscodebookspurredourthinkingaboutconceptsoflifetransition,interdependence,andtrajectories.

ThethreeyearsofpreparatoryworkforastudyofchildrenoftheGreatDepressionbrokenewgroundforus,becausewecouldnotfallbackontried-and-trueapproaches.Thearchivalworkrepresentedanapprenticeshipinthedesignofalife-historystudy,especiallyinproducingamatchbetweenlife-coursequestionsanddata.BythetimewehaddecidedtodevelopacomparativecohortstudywithlongitudinaldatafromtheBerkeleyGuidanceStudy(early1970s),themethodologyofdoingsucharchivalworkwasreasonablyclear.

TheBerkeleyGuidanceStudyarchiveitselfwaslargerthanthatoftheOaklandStudybecausemoregenerationswereincluded.InFigure2.1,Box1referssolelytotheOaklandStudyandincludestwogenerations,withmostofthedataonsubjectsbornbetween1920and1921.TheprojectinBox2involvesacomparisonoftheOaklandandBerkeleycohortsonthedepressionexperience(Elder,1979).DatawerealsocollectedonBerkeleyparentsfromyoungadulthoodtooldage,andonthestudychildren,theirpostwarchildren,andgrandparents.TheprojectinBox3focusesontheintergenerationaldynamicsthatlinkthegenerations(Elder,Caspi,&Downey,1986),asinthereproductionofparentalbehaviorstyles.

FromtheoriginalsampleofGuidanceStudymembers,214werefollowedthroughthe1930sandearly1940s;182weremembersofthestudythroughage40or1970.Dataontheiroriginsandearlylife

coursesto1930wereobtainedfromtheparentsin1929-1930.Annualdata(1929-1945)onparents,children,andthefamilyasawholecamefromobservationsbyinstitutefieldworkersandteachers,andfromself-reports(interviews,questionnaires).Postwardatafromparentswerecollectedin1969and1973,andfromtheirchildrentheBerkeleyStudymembersin1960,1970-1972,andthe1980s.

Withthebasicfeaturesofarchivalworkinmind,wemanagedtocompleteallofthelife-coursecodingfortheBerkeleystudywithinayear,1972-1973.ThisapproachanticipatedourworkwiththeTermandataarchive,aspresentedinthismonograph,andconsequentlyprovidesausefulbackgroundonfittingresearchquestionstodata.

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Figure2.1.TwoIntergenerationalStudies

FromLifeRecordstoCodes:TheBerkeleyGuidanceArchive

OurworkintheGuidanceStudyarchivewasstructuredbyacomparativeobjective:acohortcomparisonoftheeffectsofdepressionhardshipthroughthefamilyandintothelivesofmenandwomen.Fromthevantagepointofanobserver,thearchiveseemedwellmatchedforsuchanalysis,althoughtheextentofthematchandthecodingrequirementscouldbedeterminedonlythroughanon-siteinventoryofthecodedanduncodeddata.Interviews,homeobservations,andlettersprovidedmanyoftheuncodeddata.

Theinventoryestablishedamapofthearchivalterritoryinrelationtoobjectivesandthusenabledmoreeffectiveuseofresources.Weneededtoknowwhatmaterialsrelevanttoourquestionswerestilluncoded,whatdatawerecodedbutnotpreparedforanalysis,andwhatcodeddatawereacceptableforourpurposes.Inthecourseofcompletingtheinventory,weachievedacloserfitbetweenresearchquestionsandtheBerkeleydataaspotentialandfact.Forexample,welearned

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thatwecouldmeasuredepressionincomelosssothattheindexwouldcloselymatchtheOaklandmeasureonchangefrom1929to1933andalsoprovideamoredetailedindexofpercentagechangeoftotalfamilyincome.

Afterseveralmonthsofintensivework,wehadafirmmasteryofthelinesofinquirythatcouldbepursued,withandwithoutnewcodings.AsintheOaklanddataarchive,theinventoryproducedveryfewsocialdatathatwerecodedandstructuredinlife-recordform.Wecouldreadilydeterminethestatusofindividualsandfamiliesatpointsintime,butwecouldnotascertainthecoursetheyfollowedovertime.Sociallifehistorieswerenotavailable.

Theseexamplesprovidesomeindicationoftheworkrequiredbeforeanycodingandrecastingofthedataarchivecouldbegin.Mostimportant,wehadtoassemblethesocialdatainchronologicalformtoconstructliferecordsthatwouldthenbecomethebasicdataforcoding.

Aliferecordisachronologyofmajorlifeeventsandexperiences,andtraditionallythereareatleastthreewaystobuildone.Aliferecordcanbepreparedbytherespondentfromapersonalperspective,asinoralhistories(Hareven,1982).Liferecordsonaparticularpersonarealsoproducedfromtheperspectiveofaninformantorknowledgeableother,suchasaspouse,confidant,orbestfriend.Finally,liferecordsaresometimesconstructedbyathirdparty,suchasaclinicianorresearcher,usingawidearrayofmaterials,fromwrittenandoralreportsbythesubjecttoletters,vitalrecords,observationalmaterials,andpublicdocumentsfromsocialagencies.

Bysynthesizingdiversematerialintoasinglechronology,thethirdapproachrepresentsanefforttoobtainthemostcompleterecordinrelationtothefactsathand.Disparatereportsareresolvedwiththeobjectiveofachievingthemostaccurateaccount.Foranumberof

reasons,theGuidanceStudyarchiveprovedtobeideallysuitedtothethirdsyntheticapproachtoliferecords.Theintensivelystudiedfamiliesandchildrenwerecontactedmanytimeseachyearbyafieldworker,whosefieldnotesbecamepartofthedataarchive.Otherdatasourcesincludedreportsbymothersandthechildren,teacherratingsandreports,andlettersfromvariousagencies.

Thoroughlytrainedprojectassistantswereinstructedtoreadthecaseassemblyofeachfamily,andthenconstructliferecordssystematicallyineightspecializedareas:socioeconomiccareeroffatherandfamily,1929-1945;worklifeofmalehouseholdhead;worklifeofwifeandmother;1929-1945householdcomposition;parentalmaritalrelations,

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1929-1945;parent-childrelations,1929-1945,1969;parents'subjectiveinterpretationsofthelifecourse,1929-1945;andadultlifecourseofstudymembers,1945-1970s.

Theliferecordsweredevelopedtoprovidecodable,longitudinalinformationonthefamilyunit,mothersandfathers,andstudymembers.Theassembledbiographicalrecordalsoofferedanempiricalbaseforqualitativecasestudies.Thisrecordwasclearlyaby-productoftheneedforlife-recorddatainthecodingoperation,butitofferssomanyadvantagestotheanalystwhoneedstomovebackandforthbetweenquantitativedataandchronologicalrecordsthatitdeservestobeanobjectiveinitsownright.Amongseveralcomputerprogramsforcodinglife-historydataareTAP,Qualpro,andtheEthnographer(Tesch,1990).

Life-courseanalystsencountermanyarchivalchallenges,butfewaremoredemandingthantheredesignofdatasetsorastudyarchivetoobtainabetterfitbetweenresearchquestionanddata,ataskthatbecomesmorecommonaswemovebackinhistoricaltime.Datasetsthatseemappropriatefrequentlyneedmoreinvestmentinmeasurementsandfiledesignthanwasoriginallyanticipated.Inothercases,alongitudinaldataarchivemayrepresentthelasthopeamonggenerallyundesirablechoicesforinvestigatingaspecificlife-historyquestion.

TheOaklandGrowthandBerkeleyGuidancearchivesposedachallengebecauseneitherrepresentedacompletelife-courseframeworkwhenfirstencountered.Moreover,neitherstudywasequippedwithmeasuresofhistoricalchangeandexperience.Nevertheless,bothstudiesheldthepotentialforliferecordsandquantitativedataonlivesaswellaschangingtimes.Understandably,thispotentialismucheasiertoseenowthanatthebeginning,butperhapsthislackofforesightisadaptive.Wouldaresearcherembark

onastudyrequiringsuchinvestmentsifheorsheknewthewholestoryattheoutset?Probablynot.Inthissense,limitedvisionhasunquestionedbenefitsforlong-rangeaccomplishmentsthatcanrequireyearsofarchivalwork.

FittingResearchQuestionsandData

Onedistinctivefeatureofthelife-courserevolutionisthebirthofnumerouslongitudinalstudiesandeffortstofollowpeoplewhowerestudiedmanyyearsago.Somefollow-upshaveusedlifecalendarsorage-eventmatrices(Freedman,Thornton,Camburn,Alwin,&Young-DeMarco,1988)thatrecordtheyearsandmonthsatwhicheventsor

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transitionsoccurineachactivitydomain.Thecross-checkpossibilitiesinsuchcalendarshelptominimizeerrorsofrecall.Theseprospectivestudiesandretrospectiveprojectsaregeneratingdataarchivesforcurrentinvestigatorsandforthosewhowillneedlife-historydatainthefuture.

Investigatorsseektomaximizethefitbetweentheirresearchquestionsandthebestavailabledataathand,butthereisgenerallysomedisparitybetweenquestionsanddataoverthelongterm.Aswehavenoted,theprocessofworkingwitharchivaldatatypicallyinvolvesadjustmentsinquestionsanddata.Theinterplayisreciprocal.Wereformulatequestionsinlightofthedataathandandfrequentlyrecastdataforabetterfitwithourquestions.

Someoftheworkofthismatchingprocessisachievedinselectinganappropriatedataset.Weselectcertaindatasetsbecausetheypresumablyenableustoaddresscertainquestions.Fromthisangle,theresearchenterpriseisquestiondriven:Thequestioncomesfirstandstructurestheprocess.Whenarchivaldataareavailable,theinvestigatoroccupiestheveryspecialpositionofplanningaresearchprogramaroundacentralproblem.Thisoptionisnotalwaysavailabletoinvestigatorswhoarerunningtheirownlongitudinalstudies.Theirchallengeistodeviseresearchquestionsthatcanbeaddressedbythedataarchive.Inthissense,datashapetheagendabydefiningwhatisandisnotpossible.

InourreviewoftheTerman,Oakland,andBerkeleydataarchives,wehavementionedaseriesofstepsintheprocessofworkingwitharchivaldataandofseekingtoachieveanoptimumfitbetweenresearchquestionsanddata(seeFigure2.2).TheTermanStudyverynicelyillustratesthesteps.Webeginwithproblemspecificationandthepremisethatitisvaluabletohaveawell-honedsenseoftheproblembeforebeginningthesearchforanappropriatedatasetor

archive.TheTermanStudymetourneedsbecausenearlyhalfofthemenservedinWorldWarII,andatrelativelylateages.TheOaklandandBerkeleystudieshadtoldusthatrelativelylatemobilizationwasmostdeprivingformilitarypersonnel.TheTermandataarchive,then,providedanopportunitytoexploretheveryworstmatchbetweenmenandserviceentry,atransitiontimethatincreasedtheriskofdivorceandcareerdisruption.Inoursearchforappropriatedata,wewereunabletofindabetterresourceforourpurposes.

Withtheoptionssurveyed,thestageissetforpreparingaresearchproposalthatmakestheverybestcaseforthegoodnessoffitbetweendataandquestion.Asnotedearlier,themosteffectivestrategyistomakeacasefortheadvantagesofthedata.Almostbydefinition,

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Figure2.2.StepsintheResearchProcess

archivaldatafromanothererawillhavenumerouslimitationswhencomparedwithcontemporarydataandmeasurements.However,contemporarydatawillnotenableaninvestigationofissuesthatextendbackinhistoricaltime.

Initialanalysisofthedatamaybecarriedoutinpreparationforaresearchproposal,alongwithathoroughinventoryofthecodeddata.Thisoverviewcanprovideevidenceonwhyarecastingeffortmustbemade,anditmightindicatetheneedtoseekotherdata.OurplanstodevelopabatteryofnewcodesfromtheTermandatafilesweremadeonlywhenwerealizedthatwehadnoalternativeifweexpectedtocarryoutasatisfyingstudy.

Asthesubsequentchaptersmakeclear,weputoffrecastingaslongaspossiblebecauseweknewtheamountofworkitentailed.Ourdeepeningawarenessoftheneedforalargerecodingeffortbecamepersuasiveonlyaswemovedwellintothestageofdataanalysis.Bycomparison,theneedfornewcodesandrecastingintheOaklandandBerkeleystudieswasclearattheoutset,andweencounteredfewsurprisesinthecourseofcompletingthiswork.

Conclusion

Thecentralthemeofthischapterbringstomindanearliertimeinthe

sociologyofsciencethe1950sandaseriesofthoughtfulessaysby

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RobertK.Merton(1959,1968)onthecontributionsofempiricalresearchtotheory,therelationbetweensociologicaltheoryandresearch,andthetaskofproblemfinding.Theessayswerewrittenwellbeforethe1960sandthelife-courserevolution,butnonesincehasprovedmorehelpfulinunderstandingthischangeinthinkingandresearch,particularlyitssystemicnature.Breakthroughswereachievedintheory,methods,data,andresearchquestions,andallofthesedevelopmentsareinterrelated.Theremarkableexpansionoflongitudinaldatabaseschallengestheoryandstatisticalmodels,andthedevelopmentofnew''quantitativemethodspermitsnewconceptualizations''(Campbell&O'Rand,1988,p.66).

Theneglectedlinkinthissystemofchangeistherelationbetweendataandresearchquestionthecentraldomainofthischapter,aswehaveseen,andasweshallsee,ofthefollowingonesaswell.Archivalworkthatleadstoempiricalresearchinvolvesaprocessofmaximizingthefitbetweendataandresearchquestions.Theenterpriseincludestwointeractiveoperations:reformulatingquestionsandmodelstoprovideabetterfitwithgivendataandrecastingdatatoprovideabetterfitwithquestionsandanalyticmodels.Typicallytheseadjustmentsoccurconcurrently.Theworkingprocessyields,ideally,aclearersenseofproblem,amoredetailedstatementoftheanalyticmodel,andsuitablelife-recordcodes.Althoughrecastingdataarchivesoccursinpartthroughthecodingprocess,noresearchactivityismoreconceptualinnature.

3.RecastingtheArchiveAninvestigatorwhoseresearchquestioncannotbeansweredsatisfactorilythroughtheuseofexistingdatahasseveraloptions.One

istogiveuptheprojectentirelyandturntoothermatters,butthissolutionisscarcelyoptimal.Alternatively,thequestioncanbereformulatedtoachieveabetterfit,orthearchivecanberecasttoaddressthequestionmoreadequately.Itisalsopossibletomakebothadjustments.Asaguidefortheresearcherwhodecidestorecastadataarchive,wefocusontherecastingprocessandprovideessentialdetailsconcerningthepracticaloperationsineachstage.

Thedecisiontorecastadataarchiveshouldnotbetakenlightly,foritcaninvolveamajoroutlayofintellectualandmaterialresourcesoveranextendedperiodoftime.Byrecasting,wehaveinmindmorethansimplyarecodingexercise.Recastingmayentailsomerecoding,but

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Figure3.1.RecastingtheArchive:TheDecisionProcess

themostfundamentaloperationentailsanewtheoreticalmodelandeffortstoshapethedataforasatisfactoryempiricaltest.

Thedatainthiscasearenotrecoded;theyarerestructuredtoprovidecompletelynewmeasuresoftheconcepts(seeFigure3.1).Toillustrate,wedividethestepsintotwoapproaches,evaluationandrecasting.Thefirstapproach(grayboxes)representsanarchiveevaluationphase;thesecond(whiteboxes)depictstherecastingphase.

Thefirstapproachentailschoosingandevaluatinganarchive.Investigatorshaverarelyhadtorecodesecondarydatainrecentyearsbecausestudydesigns,bothcross-sectionalandlongitudinal,havebeen

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sophisticated,eclectic,andadaptabletoavarietyofresearchquestionsandmethods.Furthermore,datacollectioninstrumentsincontemporarystudiesareoftentoohighlystructuredtoenablethesubstantialrecastingofmeasures.However,someresearchquestions,particularlythosethatdealwithsocialandhistoricalchange,canbeansweredonlywitholderarchivalmaterials.Thesearchiveswereneverintendedtoaddressthequestionsthatinterestinvestigatorstoday;consequently,contemporaryapproachesofteninvolvereworkingthearchives.Luckily,originalquestionnairesandotherdatasourcesareusuallyaccessibleinolderarchives,providinganoptionofrecodingnotavailableincontemporarydatasets.

Forthesereasons,anyoneusingarchivaldatamustcarefullyevaluatethequalityoftheexistingcodesandthepotentialcostsandbenefitsofrecoding.Iftheexistingcodesareadequate,dataanalysiscanbegin,butiftheyarenot,theresearchermustdecidewhethertorecastthearchiveorlookforanalternatedatasource.

Thesecondstageoftherecastingprocessbeginsonceadecisionhasbeenmadetoreworkthedataandrefinetheresearchquestions.Thefirststepsincreatingnewcodesaretoevaluateothercodingschemescarefullytodeterminewhetherthosemeasurescanbeadaptedtothesedataorwhethertheresearchermustdevelopentirelynewcodes.Ifstandardizedcodescanbeused,theresearchermustgothroughaprocessofadaptingthemtothedata.

However,iftheresearchquestionsortheformofthedatamakeotherschemesinapplicable,werecommenddevelopingasummarysheettoinventoryeachcaseandtoaidinthedevelopmentofnewcodes.FurtherdetailsregardingcreationanduseofsummarysheetsarediscussedunderStep4below.Afterthesepreliminarystepsarecomplete,thenewvariablesandcodesaredocumentedbythecodebook.Next,thecasesarecoded,andfinally,thereliabilityand

validityofthenewcodescanbeestimated.Ifthedataareacceptable,preparationscanbemadefordataanalysis.Ifthereliabilityorvalidityisunacceptable,theresearchermustreturntothecodebook,refinethecodes,andproceedthroughthecodingoperationsasecondtime.

Inthischapter,weillustratetheprocessbydetailingourconstructionofnewhealthcodesondatacollectedbetween1945and1986formenintheTermanarchive.CreatinghealthcodesfortheTermanmenisanespeciallygoodexampleofhowtocapitalizeonthefullpotentialofanarchive.Thestudywasneverdesignedtoexaminehealth,buteventheminimalcollectionofself-reportedhealthandillnessesateachsurvey

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waveallowsustoreconceptualizehealthasatemporalprocessthatunfoldsacrossthelifespan.Ourtemporalconceptualizationofhealthisuniquelydesignedforthesedata,butthestagesofevaluation,reformulation,operationalization,andreevaluationarenottheyarebasicstagesintherecastingofanydataarchive.

FirstApproach

Step1:EvaluationofExistingMaterials

Anyuseofanarchiveshouldbeguidedbyaresearchablequestionthatenablestheinvestigatortodecidewhetherthedataareadequateor,ifnot,whetherrecodingisnecessaryandpossible.Ourinterestinhealthwasframedwithinalargerresearchagendafocusedonmilitaryserviceandadultdevelopment.Wewereparticularlyinterestedinlearninghowmilitaryexperienceaffectedemotionalandphysicalhealthimmediatelyafteranindividual'sreturntocivilianlife,aswellashowsuchexperienceinfluencedlong-termpatternsofhealthandaging.TheTermanarchivewaspromisingforansweringsuchquestionsbecauseitincludedasupplementalquestionnairein1945,andseveralhealthquestionswererepeatedinallsurveywaves.

AnotheradvantageoftheTermanarchiveisthatallsurveydatahavebeencoded,entered,anddocumented,andareavailableoncomputertapefromtheInter-UniversityConsortiumforPoliticalandSocialResearchatAnnArbor.WeapproachedtheTermanarchivebyassumingthatwecouldusetheprecodeddata.Aswithanysecondarydataanalysis,ourinitialstepwastoassembleallprecodedhealthinformationfrom1945to1986(Table3.1).

Afterreviewingthehealthdata,wewereencouragedbytherepetitionofthreeself-reporteditems:(a)generalhealthsincetheprevioussurveywave;(b)illnesses,accidents,orsurgeryinrecentyears;and(c)tendenciestowardemotionaldisturbancesandworriesincluding

datesandnatureofthedifficultyandhowitwashandled(therapy,hospitalization).Thesequestionsareavailableinalleightsurveywavesfrom1945to1986.Inaddition,althoughthedatawerecodedascrosssections,retrospectivequestionsonhealthsincethepriorsurveywavetendedtofillintheintervalsbetweenwaves,generatinghealthhistoriesforeachrespondent.

Weknewthatminormanipulationsofthedatawouldbenecessarytoadaptthearchivetoourneeds,buttheprecodeddataoncomputertapeseemedtoprovideadequateinformationtoanswertheresearchquestions

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Table3.1HealthInformationinTermanFiles,1945-1986

Survey Age Variable1945 35 generalphysicalconditionsince1940;illnesses,surgery,accidentsin

recentyears;tendenciestowardemotionaldistress1950 40 generalphysicalconditionsince1945;illnesses,surgery,accidentsin

recentyears;tendenciestowardemotionaldistress;alcoholuseifproblem,howhandled

1955 45 generalphysicalhealthsince1950;illnesses,surgery,accidentsinrecentyears;tendenciestowardemotionaldistress

1960 50 generalphysicalhealthsince1955;illnesses,surgery,accidentsinrecentyears;tendenciestowardemotionaldistress;alcoholuseifproblem,howhandled

1972 62 generalhealth1970-1972;majorchangesinphysicalormentalwell-being;energyandvitality

1977 67 generalhealth1977;majorchangesinphysicalormentalwell-being;comparedwithpeers;energyandvitality;happiness

1982 72 generalhealthsince1976;majorchangesinphysicalormentalwell-being;aspectsofhealthcausingworry;tendenciestowardemotionalproblems;extentofpersonalcareorassistanceneeded;energyandvitality;moodinlast2months;happiness

1986 76 generalhealthsince1981;majorchangesinphysicalormentalwell-being;aspectsofhealthcausingworry;extentofpersonalcareorassistanceneeded;moodinlast2months;alcoholuseifproblem,stepstaken;energyandvitality;happiness;bothersomedeclinesinhealth

Overall dataandroughdeterminationofcauseofdeath

athand.Notuntilmuchlaterdidwerealizethattheoriginalcodeswerewhollyinadequateandnotsalvageable.Thisawarenessforcedustoreevaluatethematerialsandeventuallytodecideonathoroughrecastingofthearchive.Weprovidedetailsonthissetbacktodemonstratethepossibilitiesandlimitationsofworkingwithpreexistingcodes.

Toadapttheoriginalcodestomeetourneeds,webeganwiththemostpromisingindicatorofphysicalhealth.Inalleightsurveywavesfrom1945to1986,themenlistedtheirillnesses,surgery,ormajorchangesin

1945to1986,themenlistedtheirillnesses,surgery,ormajorchangesinmentalorphysicalwell-being.Theendresultisanarrayof98medicalconditions(seeTable3.2).Somearewell-knownconditions,suchasdiabetesandParkinson'sdisease,andsomearecommonsurgicalprocedures,suchasgallbladderorprostatesurgery;however,other

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Table3.2ExamplesofHealthConditionsTermanMenListedAcross

SevenWaves(1945-1986)memoryloss lonely,lesshappydecreasedvigor,fatigue abscess,cellulitishepatitis perniciousanemiadiabetes hipfracturehypertension hipreplacementmyocardialinfarction congestiveheartfailureatherosclerosis strokecoronarybypass anginaheartarrhythmia anxiety,nervousnessdepression goutmultiplesclerosis migraineheadachesalcoholism Parkinson'sdiseaseencephalitis lungcancercoloncancer abdominalcancerskincancer leukemiadetachedretina prostatecancerprostatesurgery kidneystonesmuggingwithconcussion gallbladdersurgerydiverticulosis hemorrhoidspepticulcer hemorrhoidectomyappendicitis cirrhosisoflivertuberculosis asthmaemphysema pneumoniapulmonaryembolism hearingloss

codesweremoreobscureintheirexactmeaning,suchas"slowingdown,""fatigue,"or"lonely."

Ourresearchinterestswerenotfocusedonthediagnosesorconditions,butontheirimpactondailyfunctioning.Thusweneededsomewaytotranslatethephysicalconditionsintoameasureofimpairmentandcomparelevelsofimpairmentacrosssurveys.We

adoptedtheCumulativeIllnessRatingScale(Linn,Linn,&Gurel,1968)toratetheseverityofroleimpairmentforeachdiagnosisorconditionasfollows:

0=None:Noimpairment.1=Mild:Impairmentdoesnotinterferewithnormalrolefunction;treatmentmayormaynotberequired;prognosisisexcellent.2=Moderate:Impairmentinterfereswithnormalactivity;treatmentisneeded;prognosisisgood.

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3=Severe:Impairmentisdisabling;treatmentisurgentlyneeded;prognosisisguarded.4=ExtremelySevere:Impairmentislifethreatening;treatmentisemergentorpossiblyofnoavail;prognosisisgrave.

Weaskedfourmedicalexpertstousethisscaleindependentlytomakeclinicaljudgmentsoneachofthe98medicalconditions.Weaskedthejudgestoconsider,forexample,thedegreetowhichanindividual'sfamilyandworkroleswereprobablycompromisedinthepresenceofastrokeorfracturedleg.Todeterminetheapproximatedegreeofimpairmenttherespondentexperiencedwhentheconditionwasfirstmentioned,weaskedtheratersto"indicatethecodethatbestdescribesthedegreeofimpairmentinrolefunctionexperiencedbyindividualswiththisproblematthetimeofdiagnosispleaseuseyourjudgmentinrelationtoallpatientsyouhaveobserved,onaverage."

Twoofthefourraterswerephysicians,boardcertifiedininternalmedicine.TheothertworaterswerenurseswithadvanceddegreesadoctoralcandidateinpublichealthandaPh.D.psychologist.Eachraterhadatleastfiveyearsofclinicalexperience.Thismedicalexpertisewasconfirmedwhenagreementamongallfourratersacrosshealthconditionsexceeded80%.Wewerepleasedwithwhatpromisedtobequalityimpairmentdataandproceededtotheanalysisphase,onlytodiscovermajorproblemsinshortorder.

Wefirstcheckedthevalidityofourmeasuresbyexaminingsomebasiccorrelatesofhealth,suchasageandeducation,atsuccessivecrosssections.Accordingtotheresearchliterature,educationshouldhaveamodestbutsignificantrelationshiptohealth,withagebecomingmorepredictiveofhealthovertime.Tooursurpriseandpuzzlement,thesesimpleexpectationsreceivednosupport.Theeffectsofageandeducationvarieddramaticallyfromone

measurementtothenext,withnologicalpattern.Inonesurveywave,ageandeducationwerehighlysignificantpredictorsofhealth.Therelationshipdisappearedinthenextwave,onlytobecomesignificantagainintheensuingwave.Basedontheseunevenfindings,weconcludedthatourmeasuresofimpairmentwerenotvalidandweregivinguslittlemorethanrandomresults.

Insearchofanswers,wereturnedtotheoriginalsurveyresponsesonillnessesandsurgerysincethelastsurveywave.Bycomparingactualsurveyresponsesweconfirmedourworstfearsaboutthedatatheimpairmentcodes,thoughbasedonhighrateragreement,werenotindicatingtruepatternsofimpairment.Forexample,whenwecompared

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theoriginalsurveyresponsesoftwomenwithso-calledmuscular-skeletalproblems,wefoundverydifferenthealthconditions.Onereporteda"sprainedhand,"theother"paralysis."Inanotherpairofcases,amanreportedmildulcersymptomsthatledhimtorestricthisdiet;theothercaserequiredulcersurgery.Bothwerecoded"ulcer"despitethewidevariationindiseaseseverity.Suchexamplesmadeitclearthatwewereworkingwithinadequateindicatorsofimpairment,andnomanipulationoftheexistingcodeswouldcorrectthebasicproblem.

Step2:TheDecisiontoRecode

Inthenextstep,wereevaluatedthematerials,includingtheoriginalsurveyresponses,todeterminewhetherornotcreatingnewhealthcodeswouldbefruitful.Ourfinaldecisiontorecastthehealthdatainvolvedthreemajorquestions:

1.Didtheoriginalsurveyresponsescontainenoughinformationforustocreatebetterhealthcodesthanalreadyexisted,anddidwehaveadequateaccesstothesedata?

2.Didthehealthdatahavelimitationsthatcouldnotbeovercome?

3.Whatwerethestrengthsofthisarchiveintermsofunderstandinghealth,andweretherewaystomaximizethedata'spotential?

Basedonearlierobservation,weknewthattheoriginalsurveyresponsesofferedmajoradvantagesovertheexistinghealthcodes.Thequestionsonillness/surgerywereopen-endedandincludedadditionalspacefortherespondenttoelaborate.Similarly,thequestionabouttendenciestowardemotionalproblemsprovidedseverallinesforrespondentstoadddetails.Theemotionalhealthquestionaskedspecificallyforthedateandnatureoftheseproblems,howtheywerehandled,andtherespondent'spresentcondition.Ourexaminationofcasefilestoldusthatrespondentswereknowledgeable

andcandidabouttheirhealth,oftenprovidingextensivedetailsaboutimportanthealthproblems.Thequalitativematerialscontaineddetailedandoftenvividphysicalandemotionalhistoriesthatexistingcodesfailedtocapture,aswellassubstantialdiversityinmen'sillnessexperiences.

PermissionhadgenerouslybeengrantedbytheTermanStudydirectorforaccesstotheoriginalfilesatStanford.However,amajorrecodingeffortwouldbelabor-andtime-intensiveandthesubstantialdistancebetweenNorthCarolinaandCaliforniapresentedasignificant

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problem.Fortunately,staffmembersfromtheUniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHillhadgonetoStanfordtoobtaincopiesofcasematerialsforworkandmilitaryhistories.Thuswehadonhandoriginalinformationforeachrespondent,includingpartialsurveys,letterstoandfromrespondents,reports,newspapers,andtranscribedinterviews.Thissubsetofmaterialsincludedoriginalresponsestohealthquestionsfor1945,1960,1972,1977,and1986.Whenwecombinedthisinformationwiththesecondarydataoncomputertape(e.g.,dateofdeath,generalphysicalhealth),weconcludedthatitwassufficienttodevelopextensivehealthcodeswithoutreturningtoStanford.

Asecondsetofissuesconcernedlimitationsofthehealthdata.Werethereproblemswiththeoriginaldatathatcouldnotbeovercome,evenwiththecarefuldevelopmentofnewcodes?Forexample,self-reportsconstitutedourprimarysourceofhealthinformation,therebyforcingheavyrelianceontherespondents'abilityanddesiretoexplicatetheoftenpersonaldetailsoftheirphysicalandemotionalfunctioning.Previousresearchinthisareasuggeststhatself-reportsofgeneralhealthconditionarereliablepredictorsofphysicalhealthandmortality,particularlyifcomparisonsaremadebetweenpeopleofthesamesexandculturalbackground(Idler&Kasl,1991;Maddox&Douglass,1973).ThehomogeneousnatureoftheTermansample,includinghighlevelsofeducation,madeusmoreconfidentaboutthereliabilityofcombiningself-reportsandmorespecifichealthquestions.WesoonlearnedthatthemajorityofTermanmenwerewellinformedabouttheirhealthproblemsandoftenprovidedingreatdetailthesymptomatology,clinicaldiagnosis,andmedicalmanagementofconditionssuchascancerorheartdisease.

Inadditiontoourconcernaboutrelyingprimarilyonself-reports,wewereawarethatthewordingofquestionsvariedslightlyacrosssurveywaves,andthattherewereseverallongperiodsbetweensurvey

waves.Theseriousnessoftheseproblemscouldbeevaluatedonlywhenweighedagainstthestrengthsofthearchive.Didthestrengthsoutweightheselimitations,orwouldanotherdatasourcebettermeetourneeds?

TheTermanarchiveprovidesmorethan60yearsoflongitudinaldata,allowingtheresearchertolookatantecedentsandlong-termconsequencesofhealthproblems,includingmeasuresofmilitaryexperiencesinWorldWarII.Richlydetailedcasehistoriesincludeextensiveinformationonfactorsthatpotentiallyaffecthealthoutcomes,includingpersonalbackground,marriageandfamilylife,worklifeandjobsatisfaction,avocationalandvolunteeractivities,andlifesatisfaction.Furthermore,thesecasehistoriesarecombinedwithanadequatesample

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sizetoallowquantitativeaswellasqualitativeanalyses.Finally,whilethewordingofsomesurveyquestionschangesovertime,mostofthehealthmeasuresandotherindicatorsarecomparablefromonesurveywavetothenext.

Thesestrengthsofferedanunparalleledopportunitytoexaminethecomplexinteractionsbetweenphysicalandemotionalhealthandotherfactorsinthelivesofthesemenastheyunfoldedoverafour-decadeperiod.Weconcluded,therefore,thattheassetsofthearchivefaroutweighedthelimitationsforexaminingpatternsofhealthovertime.

Step3:RefiningtheResearchQuestions

Ourdecisiontorecastthehealthdataopenednewpotentialforresearchideas,returningustothestageofconceptualizingourresearchquestions.Wefeltstronglythatthereformulatedquestionsandnewcodesshouldbedesignedtobuildonthestrengthsofthearchiveratherthantodisarmtheweaknesses.AnothermajorassetoftheTermanarchive,inadditiontohealthandmilitarydata,isitsdetailedinformationonworkandfamilylivesthroughouttheadultyears.Ournewresearchquestionscouldincludethesedimensionsthroughexplorationofrelationshipsamonghealth,work,andfamilyoverseveraldecades.Becausewehaddecidedtorecastthehealthdata,wewereinapositiontoformulatenewquestionsthatwouldallowustoexaminehealthinwaysunavailablefromothertypesofsurveydata.

Strategiesforanalyzingchangesinhealthovertimeandacrossindividualsincludepanel,eventhistory,andpooledtime-seriesdesigns.However,ourreadingoftheTermancasehistoriesidentifiedphysicalandemotionalhealthtrajectoriesoverthecourseoflifethatwerenotcapturedbyasimplelookatchangeinhealthfromonecrosssectiontoanother.Thoughscientificknowledgeabouthealthtrajectoriesisvirtuallynonexistentbeyondtherealmofclinicalcase

studies,certainpatternsintheTermandatawereeasilyidentified.Forexample,alargenumberofthemenhadrelativelystablehealthhistories.Ofthisgroup,somewereendowedwithsuperbphysicalormentalconstitutionandconsequentlymanifestedgoodorexcellenthealthformostoftheirlives.Bycontrast,asmallergroupappearedinherentlyfrail,fallingvictimtoillnessorinjuryfrequently.Otherliveswerecharacterizedbychangesinhealthstatus,subtleorpronounced.

Directionandslopeofhealthchangesseemedtocorrespondtoillnessseverity,extentofrecovery,andnatureofdeficits.Forsome,health

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declineswererarebutdidoccur,asforahealthyindividualwhoexperiencedamajorheartattackwithrecoveryinmid-life.Inotherinstances,morefrequentorsporadicdeclinescorrespondedtoacuteillnessepisodes(e.g.,pneumonia,autoaccident)orchronicproblems(e.g.,diabetes,arthritis).

PerhapsthemostrelevantintroductiontotheconceptofhealthtrajectorycomesfromthewordsoftheparticipantsintheTermansample.Thefollowingexcerptswereunsolicited,offeredbyparticipantsatvariouspointsinadulthoodandoldage.''I'vebeenblessedwithgoodhealthallmylife.''"Myhealthwasgreatuntiltheheartattackin1962butIfullyrecovered.""Myhealthhasneverbeenwhatyou'dcallgood,evenasachild.""I'vealwaysbeenanervoustype,aworrier.""Aftermyillness[cancer]IhadtoretirenowIhavetolimitmyself.""I'vesufferedfromdepressionsoffandonforyears."Thesestatementsreflectongoingphysicalandemotionalprocesses.Eachcapturesmovementacrosstimeandhealthstates.Eachsketchesoutatrajectory(Figure3.2).

Basedontheseobservations,wedevelopednewquestionsonthedynamicsofhealthacrossadulthoodandlaterlife.Whatarethemajortrajectoriesofphysicalandemotionalhealthmostindividualsfollowovertime?Whatarethebackgroundfactorsandmedicalconditionsassociatedwithvarioustrajectories?Towhatextentdothetrajectoriesofphysicalandemotionalhealthcorrespondtoeachother,andunderwhatconditionsdotheydiffer?Finally,howdopeoplewithdifferenttrajectories(e.g.,menwhoexperienceadeclineandrecoveryversusthoseinconstantgoodhealth)differfromoneanother,andwhatfactorsaremostcloselyassociatedwiththosedifferences?

Asecondsetofresearchquestionsbuildsontherichnessofthearchivetomodelthecomplexinteractionsbetweenhealthandotheraspectsofmen'slives.Wewereparticularlyinterestedinhowaspects

ofworkandfamilylifeaffecthealth.Canweidentifylinksbetweenfamilyand/orworkevents,suchasjobpromotionsormaritalstatuschanges,andphysicalandemotionalhealth?Dohealtheffectsoftheseeventsvarybylifestage?Howdoescareerandfamilysuccessinfluencelong-termhealthandmortality?Explorationofthesequestionsmakesfulluseofthedetailedhistoriesofhealth,family,andcareeravailableintheTermanarchive.

Afinalsetofresearchquestionsrelatestoourinitialinterestinmilitaryserviceandhealth,butalsobuildsonthegreaterflexibilitypromisedbynewhealthcodes.Inadditiontoacapacitytoassess

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Figure3.2.PhysicalHealthTrajectories

generalhealtheffectsofmilitaryservice,wearenowinapositiontoexamineemotionalorbehavioralproblemsmorespecifically,asinthecaseofanxiety,depression,ulcers,andalcoholism.Didmilitaryserviceorcombatdutyincreasethelikelihoodthatmenwouldexperiencethesesymptoms?Ifso,didtheyexperiencethemimmediatelyafterthewarorseveralyearslater?

Thesethreebroadareasofhealthresearch(individualtrajectories,healthandcareer/family,healthandmilitaryservice)demonstratethefullvalueofourdecisiontorecastthehealthdata.Thenewdatapotentiallyseemtooffermorereliablehealthmeasures,andindoingsosignificantlyincreaseourabilitytoanswernewandexcitingquestionsabouthealthprocesses.

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Inthenextsectionwedescribethenecessarystepswefollowedintranslatingtheconceptsintoreliablemeasures.Continuingwiththehealthexample,wepresentamethodtoorganizethedatawithinaparticulardomainandthenofferguidelinesforcreatingacodebookandcodingform.Weconcludewithadiscussionofinterraterreliabilityanditsassessment.

CreatingNewCodes

Step4:EvaluatingAvailableCodingSchemes

Auniqueaspectofrecastinganarchiveisthatnewconceptsaredefinedandoperationalizedlongafterdatahavebeencollected.Thismaymeanthatstandardmeasuresdrawnfromrelevantliteraturesmustbeadaptedtocorrespondtoavailableinformation,orperhapsthatnewmeasureshavetobederived.Althoughthisissuewasbrieflyaddressedinthediscussionofevaluatingthestrengthsandlimitationsofthedata,itisatthisstageoftheprojectwhenresearchersmustdecidewhethertoadaptastandardizedcodingschemetotheirneedsortodevelopentirelynewcodes.

Inmakingthisdecision,severalquestionsmustbeaddressed.First,isthereanexistingcodingschemethatwouldallowtheresearchquestionstobeanswered?Inourhealthproject,measuresofphysicalandemotionalhealthaswellasthemorespecificemotional/behavioralcondition(anxiety,depression,ulcers,alcoholism)couldbepartiallybasedonstandardizedmeasures,buttheconceptofhealthtrajectorywascompletelynewandhadtobebasedentirelyonthedataathand.Second,dopreexistingcodesfittheavailabledata?Surveyquestionsdevelopedyearsagoarenotlikelytobethesameasthosedevelopedforcontemporarystudies,andevenconceptsthatfitthedatafairlywellmayhavetobeadaptedtotakeaccountofquestionnairedifferences.Ineithercase,whenworking

withanarchive,oneshouldexpecttomovebackandforthmanytimesamongtheconcepts,measures,anddata.

Inourhealthexample,weencounteredamajorbarriertousingstandardizedmeasuresasmorethanabasicguideline.Manymeasuresofhealthintheliteraturearebasedonrecentdatacollectionsdesignedtoextractveryspecificinformation,includinglongcheckliststhatpromptrespondentstoaddressawiderangeofpotentialhealthproblems.Bycontrast,questionsintheTermanarchiveweredesignedtogathergeneralhealthinformationandreliedheavilyonopen-ended

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queries,leadingtomuchgreatervariationinthetypesofresponsesgiven.Asaresult,wewouldneedtodesignrelativelygeneralmeasuresofphysicalandmentalimpairmentthatcouldmakefulluseofalltypesofinformationgeneralandspecificrespondentsprovided.

Havingdecidedtodesignnewcodes,theresearcher'snextstepistoinventorythedatathoroughly.Asummarysheetforeachrespondentprovidesastandardizedframeworkforreviewingeachcase,extractingallinformationrelevanttoadomainofinterest(e.g.,health),andorganizingthisinformationinoneplace.Althoughtime-consuming,completingthesummarysheetfamiliarizestheresearcherwiththedataandservesasavaluableresourceinfutureresearch.Infact,wehavefoundsummarysheetstobesovaluablethatwecompletethemaspartofthecodingoperationevenwhenrelyingonastandardizedscheme.

Inourhealthexample,weinitiallythoughtwecouldrelyonstandardizedcodes,andthusfilledinasummarysheetaswecodedeachcase.However,theprocessofcompletingthesummarysheetshelpedusdevelopandrefineourconceptsofhealthsosubstantiallythatweneededtodefinenewconceptsandcodeeachcaseasecondtime.Forexample,weencounteredunanticipatedsymptompatternsrelatedtodepression,anxiety,andalcoholconsumption.Onlyafterafullinventoryofallcasefilesdidwehaveatruesenseoftherangeofhealthinformationandillnesspatternsthatmenreported.Thusoursecondcodingsupplementedthefirstsetofcodesandincreasedtheprecisionwithwhichwedefinedhealthstatesandcapturedhealthdynamics.Othercodingoperationsmaybeabletorelymoresuccessfullyonpreexistingcodes(seethelaterwork-lifeexampleinChapter4)andthustheresearchercancombinethetwostepsofcompletingthesummarysheetanddoingtheactualcoding.

Thedesignofthesummarysheetdependsonwhatinformationisto

beextractedfromthecasefiles.Regardlessofsubstantivearea(e.g.,health,creativity,fertility,work),theinvestigatorneedstorecordandorganizeallinformationrelevanttothatdomain.Becauseofourtheoreticalinterestintemporalprocessesandthelifecourse,weusedsurveyyearandthethreerepeatedmeasuresofself-reportedhealthtoorganizeeachindividual'shealthhistory.Figure3.3isanexampleofacompletedsummarysheet.Notehowthesekeypiecesofinformationquicklysummarizehealthatonepointaswellastemporalpatternsofhealth.Eachrowofthesummarysheetrecordsthemultipleindicatorsofhealthincludedatasurveywave,whileeachcolumnrecordsanyoneindicatoroverthefourdecades.

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Figure3.3.ExampleofHealthSummarySheet

Thecasewepresent(Figure3.3)illustratestheimportanceoftheadditionalinformationgainedbyrecasting.Ifwerelyonlyonthisman'sevaluationofhisgeneralphysicalcondition,heappearstohavehadconstantgoodhealthfrom1945to1977.Buthisreportsofillnessesandsurgerytellamorecompletestory.Welearnthathewastreatedforhighbloodpressureandstrokein1957,butseemstohaverecoveredfullyby1960.Onlythroughhisworkhistorydowerealizetheseverityofhisstroke.Askedaboutworkinthe1977survey,therespondentindicatedthathehadtoretiretemporarilyforfouryears.Askedaboutlifeturningpointsinthesamesurvey,herepliedthathewasinacomafor10days.Wegaininsightintonotonlytheseverityofthisman'sillness,

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butalsohisabilitytorecover,sincehewasfinallyabletoreturntoworkandremainedingoodhealththrough1977.Insteadof"constantgoodhealth,"asindicatedbyhisself-reports,thismanclearlyhadoneepisodeofsevereimpairmentfollowedbyrecovery.Informationondateorcauseofdeathwouldberecordedintheappropriatetimeslot.

Step5:WritingtheCodebook

Aftersummarysheetshavebeencompletedandconceptshavebeenclearlydefinedfromthem,thenextstepistodocumenteachcodeinthecodebook.Aswithprevioussteps,writingthecodebookinvolvesalongprocessofmovingbackandforthamongresearchquestion,measures,anddatatorefinethedefinitionofeachcode.Thecompletedcodebookshouldincludethefollowing:

1.afulldescriptionofthearchiveanditscontents,includingbackgroundinformationonresearchgoalsbehindtherecodingeffort;

2.conceptdefinitionsandsubstantiveexamplesofeachcode;and

3.decisionrulesforcodingeachvariable.

Wefoundcleardocumentationofthedatainthehealth-codingprojectespeciallyimportantbecausedecisionswerebasedonasubsetofthefullcasefile,whichfuturedatauserswouldneedtotakeintoaccount.

Thecoreofthecodebookconsistsofvariabledefinitions,correspondingcodes,andexamplesforeachcode.OurmeasureofphysicalhealthforeachsurveyyearappearsinTable3.3.Atthetopofthepagewelistthevariablenameandconceptdefinition.Thismeasureisbasedprimarilyontheself-reportsofgeneralphysicalconditionandanymentionsofillness,accidents,andsurgery.Additionalinformationrelatingtophysicalhealth(e.g.,alcoholism)isincludedinourevaluation.Thenewphysicalhealthcodehasthesamefour-pointscaleastheexistingself-rating,butaddsmorespecific

informationonillnessfromrespondents'reports.Forexample,wecodesomeonein"good"physicalhealthifthereportspecifiesacuteresolvableconditions(afracturedwrist)ormildchronicconditions(asthma).

Eventhemoststraightforwardandclearlydefinedmeasureswillnotfiteachcaseperfectly.Consequently,afinalandcrucialpartofthecodebookinvolvesthedevelopmentofdecisionrulesthatdealwithambiguouscasessystematically.Case515(Figure3.3)providesagoodexampleoftheneedfordecisionrules.Thisreportofgeneralphysical

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Table3.3DefiningtheCodes:ExamplePageFromHealthCodebook

PHLT45S2-PHLT82S2=self-reportedphysicalhealthinsurveyyear(basedonallhealthinformation)VariableName Codes/ExamplesPHLT45S2$$$PHLT60S2PHLT72S2PHLT77S2PHLT82S2

2=Excellent:noreportedproblems,noevidenceofproblemsexceptextremelyminormentionsofcolds,mildallergies,etc.,thatallpersonsusuallyexperience.3=Good:acuteresolvableconditionsormildchronicconditions,butnotphysicalhealthimpairments.Examples:brokenarm,hemorrhoidectomy,notphysicalhealthimpairments.Examples:brokenarm,hemorrhoidectomy,herniarepair,highbloodpressurepossiblyrequiringmedicationbutwithnoothercomplications,prostateoperationwithnocomplications,"stomachtrouble"orulcerrequiringnotreatment,benigntumorremoval,minorskincancertreatment,minorheadaches,arthritis,minorsensorydeficits.4=Fair:definitephysicalhealthimpairmentpresent,chronicconditionsorsignificantacuteepisodes.Examples:minorheartattack,moderateaccidentorinjury,diabetes,ulcersurgery,isolatedcancersurgery(e.g.,polyps),gallbladdersurgery,minorstroke,alcoholism,lupus,severehighbloodpressurecausinglimitations,nonobstructiveemphysema,severearthritiswithevidenceoflimitations,herpeszosterwithimpairment,severeheadaches,significantsensorydeficitswithobviousuncorrectableimpairments(e.g.,can'tdrive,blindness).5=Poor:physicalhealthseverelyimpaired,prognosismaybegrave.Examples:lungcancer,leukemia,massivestrokeorheartattack,metastaticcancer,cirrhosisoftheliver,Alzheimer'sdisease,gastro-intestinalbleeding,emphysema,orknowledgeofanillnessresultingindeathinthatyearorsoonafter.9=Missingsurvey(includingdead).

Rules:Ifreportofgeneralphysicalconditiondoesnotcorrespondtoillnessesortoemotionaldisturbances,codeaslowestlevelofhealthreported.Examples:Rreports"fair"generalcondition,withnoillnessesoremotionalproblems,code

physicalhealthas"fair";Rreports''verygood"generalcondition,butreportsthathehadhighbloodpressureandisonmedication,codephysicalhealthas"good."IfRdiesinsurveyyear,judgedegreeofmorbidityinthatyear,notmortality.Thus,ifdeathisfromasuddeneventsuchasanaccident,heartattack,orstrokewithoutanyevidenceofaprolongedillness,donotincludetheeventinyourassessmentofmorbidity.

conditiondoesnotcorrespondwiththatforillnessesandsurgery;in1960,therespondentclaimedhewasingoodphysicalhealth,eventhoughhewasstillnotworkingbecauseofhisstroke.Thedecisionrule

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forcodingsuchdiscrepanciesislistedatthebottomofTable3.3wearetocodethelowestlevelofhealthreported.Inthiscase,thelowestlevelofhealthisindicatedbytherespondent'sinabilitytoworkin1960becauseofastrokesufferedin1957.In1960,hehadrecoveredsomewhatfromhisstroke,butwasstillphysicallyimpairedintermsofrolefunction,so,basedonournewcodingscheme,wecodehiminfairhealthin1960.

Step6:CodingtheCase

Oncethedataonaspecificdomainhavebeentransferredfromcasefilestosummarysheetsandthecodesanddecisionruleshavebeendefined,codingcanbegin.Theprocessentailsaprecodingortestperiodfollowedbytheactualcoding.Theprecodingphaseidentifiesfurtherproblemswithvariabledefinitionsanddecisionrulesandprovidesanopportunityfortheinvestigatortoviewcodesintheirfinalform.Forexample,notuntilweprecodedthehealthvariablesandreviewedthesummarysheetsdidweincorporatethekindsofconditionsfrequentlymentionedbyrespondentsasexamplesinourcodebook.Wehavefoundthatasmanyas10-20%ofthecasesmayneedtobeprecodedpriortotheactualcodingphase.

Aseachcaseiscoded,valuesarerecordedonaformlistingeachvariablenamefollowedbyspaceforthepropercode.Thisformshouldbecustomizedtoprojectneedsandshouldalsobeeasytofilloutandread,becauseaccuracyofthefinaldatalargelydependsontheclarityofthecodingform.Thecodeformisalsoanimportantfinalcheckpointforevaluatingthenewcodingscheme,sinceitshowshowdatawilllookwhenenteredintothecomputer.Dothecodes,astheyappearonthisform,adequatelycapturetherichnessofthesummarysheet?Aretheyinthecorrectformfordesireddataanalysesandaretheyflexibleenoughforothertypesofanalysis?Ifnot,thecodingschemeneedstobereevaluatedandperhapsredesignedtomeetthe

goalsoftheresearch.

Figure3.4isanexampleofthecodingformforthehealthproject,withtitleandcaseidentificationnumberatthetopofthepage.Eachvariableislistedwithanadequatenumberofblankstoaccommodatetheappropriatecodes.Variablesareorganizedintosetsthatcorrespondtotopicalareas.Spacingthevariablesetsincreasestheeaseoftransferringthecodestothecodesheet.Inthehealthexample,thetopofthepageincludesallgeneralphysicalandemotionalhealthvariablesfor

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ID#________________HEALTHCODES,TERMANMEN1945-1986

PHLT45S2_____ EHLT45S2_____(1940-52) PHLT45I2_____ EHLT45I2_____

PHLT60S2_____ EHLT60S2_____(1953-66) PHLT60I2_____ EHLT60I2_____

PHLT72S2_____ EHLT72S2_____(1967-74) PHLT72I2_____ EHLT72I2_____

PHLT77S2_____ EHLT77S2_____(1975-77) PHLT77I2_____ EHLT77I2_____

PHLT82S2_____ EHLT82S2_____(1978-82) PHLT82I2_____ EHLT82I2_____ANX402_____ DEP402_____ ULCER402

_____ANX532_____ DEP532_____ ULCER532

_____ANX672_____ DEP672_____ ULCER672

_____ANX752_____ DEP752_____ ULCER752

_____ANX782_____ DEP782_____ ULCER782

_____ALCSEV2_____ WARPHYS2_____ ERESPR2_____ALCAGE2_____ WAREMOT2

_____ERESGD2_____

PHLTHIS2_____ EHLTHIS2_____PTX2_____ PTX2_____

Figure3.4.HealthProjectCodingForm

eachtimeperiod,whilethebottomhalfofthepageincludescodesfor

morespecificvariables,includinganxiety,depression,ulcers,alcoholuse,wartimeexperience,emotionalresiliency,physicalandemotionalhealthtrajectories,andthenumberofprofessionalconsultationsforphysicalandemotionalproblems.Theformatshouldcorrespondtotheorderofvariablesinthecodebook.

Afinalstageincodingthecaseisthatoftransferringthecodesfromthecodingformtoacomputerfile.Theprimaryobjectivesindataentryareaccuracyandefficiency,andalldatashouldbeenteredtwicetocheckforaccurateentry.Atthetimeofcoding,wefoundSPSS/PCDEtobethemostflexibleprogram;itincludesawiderangeoffeatures,suchasverificationofvaluesentered,abilitytosetupthescreeneasilytomatchthecodingform,andoptionsfordefining"skipandfill"rulestoincreaseefficiencywhenthedataincludeskippatterns.

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Step7:AssessingReliabilityandValidity

InterraterReliability

Thequalityofnewdatadependsonhowreliablythecodeswereassigned,anditcanbeevaluatedbycomparingthedegreeofagreementbetweentwoormorecoders.Oneruleofthumbistocalculateagreementbetweencodersonarandomlyselected10%sampleofallthecases.Thechoiceamongseveralavailablestatisticsforcalculatingagreementdependsprimarilyonthemetricofthevariablesbeingcoded.

Whentherecodedvariablesarecategorical(twoormorecategories),anappropriatestatisticiskappa(Cohen,1968;Fleiss,1973).Kappaispreferabletochi-squareandpercentageagreementbecauseitstrictlymeasuresagreement,whereastheotherstatisticsincludealltypesofassociation.Kappaisalsopreferablebecauseitcorrectsforchanceagreement,especiallyimportantwhenthemarginaldistributionsinatablearehighlyskewed.Theformulaforkappawithtwocodersisasfollows:

Kapparangesfrom1to+1.Ifk=0,agreementbetweenthecodersisnotbetterthanchance.Ifk<0,agreementislessthanchance.Ifk>0,agreementisbetterthanchance.Theprecisestatisticalsignificance

ofkcanbedeterminedbycalculatingitsstandarderroranddeterminingazscore(seeFleiss,1973),althoughageneralruleofthumbisthata

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Table3.4CalculatingtheKappaStatistic

A.BasicKappaTableforaFour-CategoryVariable,TwoCodersCoderA

1 2 3 41 a b c d row1

CoderB2 e f g h row23 i j k l row34 m n o p row4

col1 col2 col3 col4T

B.Kappatableforphysicalhealthin1945,twocodersCoderA

1 2 3 41 0 0 0 0 0

CoderB2 0 3 1 0 43 0 4 27 2 334 0 0 3 38 41

0 7 31 4078

rangeof.2to.4indicatesfairagreement,.4to.6moderateagreement,.6to.8substantialagreement,and.8to1.0almostperfectagreement(Landis&Koch,1977).

Inthehealthexample,weconductedninereliabilitychecksatequalintervalsthroughoutthecodingoperation,totalingmorethan10%of

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the856cases.Ourtwocoderscodedeachcaseindependentlyateachreliabilitycheck.Thecodesforeachvariablewerecross-tabulated.Asanexample,partBofTable3.4demonstratesthefinaltabulationforphysicalhealthin1945.Twelvecaseshadmissingdata,reducingthetotal(T)from90to78.Missingcaseswereexcludedforthisvariablebecausethedeterminationofmissingdatawasstraightforward.Forothervariables,thedecisiontodeclaredata''missing"requiredcoderjudgment,andinthesecases,missingdata(inthiscaseacodeof9)areincludedinthefinaltabulation.

Usingtheformulaabove,

AccordingtoLandisandKoch's(1977)standards,ourlevelofagreementis"substantial,"aconclusionconfirmedbycalculationofthestandarderrorandzvalue(Fleiss,1973).Overall,kappasforthehealthmeasuresrangedfrom1.0to.69,withanaverageof.87.

Kappacanbegeneralizedtootherresearchdesigns.Reliabilitychecksforordinalvariablescanbecomputedusingweightedkappaifcertainpairsofratingsshowsubstantialdisagreement(somedisagreementsareclearlyworsethanothers)(Cohen,1968;Spitzer,Cohen,Fleiss,&Endicott,1967).Weightedkapparequiresassigningweightstoeachcell,whicharethenincorporatedintothebasickappaformula.Oneofthelimitationsofusingweightedkappaisthattherearenopresetstandardsfordeterminingtheweights.Infact,weightedkappawouldbeappropriateforthephysicalhealthvariablepresentedabove,but

withouttheoreticalrationaleforassigningweights,theadditionalcomplicationsofweightingthecategoriesoutweighedanypotentialgain.Kappacanalsobegeneralizedtodesignswithmorethantworaters(Fleiss,1971;Light,1971).

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Whenthevariablebeingcodediscontinuous,itismoreimportantthatsmalldifferencesinopinionbetweencodersbeconsideredlessseverethanlargedifferences.Forthisreason,theintraclasscorrelationcoefficient(ICC)ismoreappropriatethankappaforintercoderreliabilityassessmentofcontinuousvariables(Fleiss,1973;Robinson,1957).Initsmostbasicform,theICCisderivedfromaone-wayanalysisofvariancedesign.ItispreferabletothePearsoncorrelationbecausetheICCassessesonlypureagreement,whereasthePearsoncorrelationcoefficientdepictsanyformoflinearrelationshipbetweencoders(Robinson,1957).

TocomputetheICC,onefirstcomputesaone-wayanalysisofvariancemodelwithkratersonasampleofnpersons(forgreaterdetail,seeBartko,1966;Burdock,Fleiss,&Hardesty,1963).TheresultingANOVAtablesummarizesthevariancecomponentsintomeansquaresbetweengroups(inthiscase,coders)andmeansquareserror.TheestimateoftheICCcanthenbecalculatedasfollows:

ThetestofsignificanceoftheICCiscomputedusingtheFstatistic

withn1andn(k1)degreesoffreedom(Bartko,1966).

InTable3.5,weillustratehowtheICCiscalculatedbasedonexamplesfromEbel(1951)andBartko(1966).Inthisexampletherearetworatersandfoursubjects.Thesecondpartofthetabledisplaysthestandardanalysisofvariance,andfromthiswecalculate

Basedontheformulaabove,F=1.28,sotheICC,andthusinterrater

agreement,isnonsignificantatthe.05level.IftheICCwerehigh,itwouldindicateverylittleresidualvariationthatmightaffectcodingdecisions(Burdocketal.,1963).

ThisbasicformulafortheICCassessestheoverallreliabilityoftheinstrument,butassumesthatthecodersarefixedandthereisno

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Table3.5AnalysisofInterraterAgreementWiththeIntraclassCorrelationCoefficient

A.DataofInterraterAgreementWithFourSubjectsandTwoCoders

SubjectsCoders

1 2 S1 3 3 62 1 5 63 5 6 114 4 7 11E 13 21 34B.AnalysisofVarianceSource df SS MS FBetween 3 12.5 4.167 1.28Error 4 13.0 3.250Total 7 25.5Source:DataandexamplefromBartko(1966),Ebel(1951).

interactionbetweenthemandcases(Burdocketal.,1963).Furtherinformationonvariationbetweencodersorcoder-by-caseinteractionscanbeattainedbymodifyingtheanalysisofvariancedesignandmakingappropriateadjustmentstotheICCformula(Bartko,1966;Burdocketal.,1963).

CriterionandConstructValidity

Thefinalstepofcodinginvolvescheckingthevalidityofthenewcodes.Webeganbydeterminingthecriterionvaliditythedegreeofassociationbetweennewmeasuresandothermoreestablishedindicatorsoftheconcept(Bailey,1978).Inthehealthexample,wecomparedphysicalhealthtrajectorieswithotherindicatorsofphysicalhealth,suchasprimaryillnessthataffectedtherespondent'slife,andenergyandvitalityinthelateryears.Ourprimaryinterestinmakingthesecomparisonsistodeterminewhetherthehealthinformationisconsistentacrossdifferentmeasures,eventhougheachmeasurecapturesadifferentaspectof

health.

Eachofthefivetrajectories(Figure3.2)representshealthintermsofauniquecombinationofillnessversuswellnessandstabilityversuschange."Constantgood"and"constantpoor"healtharerelativelystablepatterns.Inourstudy,constantgoodhealthwasthemostcommonprofile,with36%

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ofthemenfallingintothiscategory.Bycontrast,only3%ofthemenremainedinpoorphysicalhealththroughouttheiradultlives.Amongmenwhoexperiencedsignificanthealthchanges,mostwereeitherhealthythroughouttheiradultlivesandthendeclinedshortlybeforedeath(25%)orexperiencedoneormoredeclinesandrecoveries(22%).Amongthechangepatterns,lineardeclinerepresentsthemostprolongedepisodeofpoorhealth,andonly14%ofthemenfallintothiscategory.

Eachhealthtrajectorymayberelatedtotheabsenceorpresenceofavarietyofphysicalhealthproblems;somearemoresuggestiveofcertainillnessesthanothers.Forexample,menwithheartdiseasearemorelikelytodeclineandrecoverorsteadilydecline,whilemenwithcancermaybelesslikelytorecoverandsodeclinequicklyattheendoftheirlives.

InpartAofFigure3.5,weconfirmourexpectationsthatmanyhealthtrajectoriesarehighlyassociatedwithdiseasecategories.Amongmenwhoseprimaryhealthproblemisheartdisease,31%recoveredaftertheinitialproblem,26%slowlydeclinedwithoutrecovery,and23%declinedmorerapidlyattheendoflife.Bycontrast,only15%ofmenwithcancerrecovered,while69%declinedattheendoflife.Menwithachronicdiseasesuchasdiabetesmostlikelyeitherexperiencedaslow,lineardecline(35%)ordeclineandimprovement(28%).

Measuresofenergyandvitalityinthelateryearsprovideadifferentkindofhealthcomparison.Chronicdiseasesarecapturedintheillnesscategorymeasure.Bycontrast,measuresofenergyandvitalityrevealanaspectofwell-beingcapturedatonlyonepointinthelifecourse.Weexpectsomepatterns,suchasconstantgoodhealth,constantpoorhealth,orlineardeclinetobeclearlyassociatedwithenergylevel.Patternsofdeclineandrecoveryanddeclineattheendoflife,however,arelikelytohavelessclearassociationsbecausedeclines

mayormaynotcorrespondtothelifestagewhenenergyisbeingmeasured.

InpartBofFigure3.5,wefindthatenergyandvitalityarehighlyassociatedwithsomeofthehealthtrajectories,particularlythosethatrepresentthemorestablehealthpatterns.Menwhostayedinconstantgoodhealththroughouttheirlivesweremostlikelyalsotoreporthavingvigorousoradequateenergy,whileonly1%ofthoseinconstantpoorhealthreportedadequateenergy.Attheotherendofthescale,31%ofmenwhoreportedlimitedenergyfitintothelineardeclinepattern,withanother9%inconstantpoorhealth.Energyandvitalityarepoorlyassociatedwithdeclineattheendoflife,withmeninthispatternequallylikelytoreporthavinglimitedorvigorousenergy.Wesuspectthattheassociationdependshighlyonwhetherthedeclineoccurred

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Figure3.5.PhysicalHealthTrajectoriesbyIllnessandHealthStatesNOTE:Missingcategoriesforcancerandvigorous=0.

betweenages63and70orlaterinlife.Menwhohadexperienceddeclineandimprovementweremostlikelytoreportinadequateenergy,suggestingthatwhiletheyhadrecovered,theirhealthsetbackshadtakenatollontheirenergylevels.

Overall,thesecomparisonsmakemuchintuitivesense.Theysuggestthathealthtrajectoriesarevalidmeasuresthatprovideauniqueviewofhealth,consistentwithotherhealthmeasures.Furtheranalysesofrelationshipsbetweenhealthtrajectoriesandothervariables,suchas

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educationandmaritalhistory,provideadditionalevidenceofconstructvalidity.Menwithadvanceddegreesweremorelikelytobeinconstantgoodhealth,whilethosewithonlyhighschooleducationsweremorelikelytohavehadlinearhealthdeclineortobeinconstantpoorhealth.Similarly,menwithintactmarriagesthroughoutmostoftheirlivestendedtobeinconstantgoodhealth,whilethoseinconstantpoorhealthtendedtoremainsingle.Thecausalmechanismsbetweenthesevariablesstillneedtobeexplored,butthestrongassociationsareconsistentwithwell-establishedrelationshipsbetweenhealthandsocialfactors,thusconfirmingtheinternalvalidityofournewlycreatedmeasures.

Summary

Wehavedetailedtheorderedphasesintheprocessofrecastinganarchive.Figure3.1bestdescribesthedecisionprocess,showingphasesofrecastingcommontoallsecondarydataanalysisandspecifictoarchivaldata.Thestep-by-steprecastingprocessisillustratedthroughthecreationofnewhealthcodesformenintheTermansample.WenextillustratehowtheprocessappliestootherdomainsintheTermanarchiveworkpatternsinlaterlifeandwartimeexperience.

4.FromRetirementtoLate-LifeCareersWitheachrecodingefforttheresearcherisfacedwithslightlydifferentissuesrequiringchangesintherecodingprocess.Ourrecodingofmen'sworkinlaterlifecloselyparalleledthehealthproject,butdifferedbecausewecouldbuildonpreexistingcodesforindustryandoccupation.Inthischapter,weillustratehowtherecodingprocessoutlinedinChapter3canbeappliedtoaproject

guidedbyadifferentsetofconceptualissuesandbuiltonstandardizedcodes.

FirstApproach

Step1:EvaluationofExistingMaterials

Ourinitialinterestinworkinlaterlifewasguidedbytwoquestionsaboutthelong-termeffectsofWorldWarIIonworklives.Didtimeoutofthelaborforceformilitaryservicedirectlydelayretirementwhile

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Figure4.1.PercentageofMenWorkingFull-Time,Part-Time,andRetiredin1977,byAge

menmadeuptheyearsofworkmissed?Werethereanylong-term,indirecteffectsofmilitaryserviceonearningsorcareersuccessthatalteredthetimingofmen'sretirement?

Beforethesequestionscouldbeanswered,fundamentalchangesintheoccupationcodeswerenecessary.AswithotherdataintheTermanarchive,occupationhadbeencodedseparatelywitheachsurvey,resultinginaseriesofcross-sectionalcodes.Anadditionalproblemwasthatthecodingschemehadchangedovertheyears,makingindividualwork-lifehistoriesandlong-termcomparisonsofoccupationimpossibletoattain.Anearlierprojecthadused1980censusoccupationcodestocreateyearlyworkrecordsfromfirstjobto1960,butthiseffortneededtobeextendedtoincludeoccupationsafter1960.

OccupationalhistoriesoftheTermanmenpresentedanevengreaterproblemaswebegantothinkaboutissuesofretirement.Manymendidnotretirebyleavingtheworkforceatapointintime,oriftheydidretire,theyoftencontinuedworkingforpayinsomecapacitylongaftertheirofficial''retirement."Figure4.1illustratesthiscomplexity.

Asexpected,atage55,mostmenworkedfull-time,butwitheachyearthepercentageworkingfull-timedroppedsteadily.Mostsurprisingisthat,forallages,thepercentageofmenworkingpart-timenearlyparallels

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thepercentagewhoarefullyretired.Thus,inthissample,part-timeworkwasasmucharealityformanymenaswasfullretirement.

Considerationsofpart-timeworkraisedfurtherquestionsaboutworkpatternsinlaterlife.Whatwerethesemendoing?Weretheyretiringfromonejobandthenworkingpart-timeelsewhere,ordidtheirpart-timeworkrepresentaprocessofslowlyphasingoutworkbeforeretirement?Didpart-timeworkrepresentamajorportionoftheirtime,andhowlongdidtheytendtoworkinsuchacapacity?TheoverallpercentagesinFigure4.1cannotanswerthesequestions;weneedtolookatindividualworkhistoriestogainsomeunderstandingofhowmenworkedandretiredintheirlateryears.TheTermanarchiveoffersauniqueopportunitytodothis,sinceitcontainsworkhistoriesoverentireadultlives.

Ourinitialreadingofthecasefilesofferedastarkcontrasttoconventionalnotionsthatlater-lifeworkisarelativelystableprocessandthatthemajortransitionisretirement,asingleexitfromthelaborforce.Meninoursampletendedtohavevariedworkchangesafterage50somewerebetweencloselyrelatedjobs,whileothersweremovestovastlydifferentoccupations.Reductionsandincreasesintimeworkedwerequitecommon.Forsome,thesechangeswereassociatedwith"retirement"fromonejob,butoftentheywerenot.Overall,therewasgreatvarietyinwhatmendidinlaterlife.

ThegraphsinFigure4.2displaysomeofthisvariability.GraphAshowsthestereotypicalpatternofworkandretirementforamanwhoworkedforalargeinsurancecompanymostofhisadultlife.Atage50,heispromotedtogroupmanagerofthefirm,worksfull-timeuntilage62,thenretiresfully.Twopatternsofpart-timeworkafterretirementappearingraphsBandC.IngraphB,anengineerworksfull-timeuntilheretiresatage56.Hecontinuesworkingpart-timeasaconsultantforthesamecompany,slowlyreducinghistimeovera

10-yearperiod,sothathedoesnotexitthelaborforceuntilage66.GraphCshowsamanwhoworksfull-timeattheSocialSecurityAdministrationuntilage59.Immediatelyafterretirement,heisasubstituteteacherfor2years,puttinginjustoverhalf-time.Atage61hebecomesapaintsalesman.Inthefirstyear,heworks1or2daysaweek,droppingtolessthanadayaweekinthesecondyear.At64,hestopsworkingforpay.

TheworkhistoriesingraphsD-Fcomplicatetheissueofretirementevenfurther,giventhatineachcaseitisquestionablewhetherretirementcanbecharacterizedasasingletransition.GraphDdepictsalawyerwholeavesageneral-practicefirmforself-employmentatage55.Hedoesnotindicatethatthischangeisaretirementorlistany

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Figure4.2.PatternsofWorkinLaterLife

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pensioninformationtoindicate"retiring"fromthefirm.Heworksfull-timeuntilage59,thengraduallyreduceshisworktime.At75,hestillpracticeslawaboutsixhoursaweek.

Theworkpatternofaself-employedbusinessmanappearsingraphE.Havinglaunchedasuccessfulbusiness,thismansellsitandretiresbeforeage50.In1960heopensacontractingandretailingfirm,slowlyincreasinghisworkeffortuntilhereturnstofull-timeworkat57.At64,hehiresanassociateandbeginsslowlytoreducehisworktime,butdoesnotstopentirelyuntilafterage75.GraphFshowstheworklifeofauniversityprofessorwhoisheavilyinvolvedininternationalconsulting.Aftertwomajortransitionsinhislate50s,hemaintainshisprimaryaffiliationwithamajoruniversityuntil"retirement"atage70.Hecontinuesinmuchthesamecapacity,however,movingtoanotheruniversityandcontinuinginternationalworkthroughouthis70s.Atage79thisprofessorisstillworkingclosetohalf-time.

Thesepatternsoflater-lifeworkraiseanumberofconceptualandmethodologicalquestionsaboutretirement.First,giventheextentofpart-timeworkinthissample,howshouldwedefineandmeasureretirement?Isretirementajobtransition,areductionintimeworked,ordefinedbysomeothercriterion,suchasreceiptofapension?Probablyanysingledefinitionwillapplytosomeworkpatternsmorethanothers.Forexample,definingretirementasajobtransitiondoesnotapplywelltothosewhoslowlyreducetheirtimeworkedinthesamejob.However,relyingontimeworkedasanindicator,suchasdefiningpeopleas"retired"oncetheydropbelowhalf-time,doesnotacknowledgethemajorworktransitionswhereone"retires"fromonejobbutmovesdirectlyintoanother.Thusitmaybethatnosinglemeasurecanfullycapturetherangeofwork-lifeexperiencesinthesample.

Beyondproblemsofdefinitionandmeasurement,theapparentvariationinthesampleraisesamoreconceptualquestion.Analysesof"retirement"makeanunderlyingassumptionthatasingleeventbestcharacterizeslater-lifework.Thusthelateryearsofworkareassumedtoberelativelystableandorderly,withthemajorchangebeinganexitoutofthelaborforce.Ourreadingofthecasefilessuggeststhattheseassumptionsofstabilityapplyonlytoasmallsubsetofrespondents.Formanyothers,workinlaterlifeisaverydynamicprocessatimeofgreatchange.Thesechangesmayinvolveexploringnewkindsofworkaswellasreductionsintimeworked.Tounderstandfullythefactorsthatshapethisprocess,wemustaddressnotonlythetransitions,buttheoverallcontextoftheworkhistoryinwhichtheyareembedded.

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Step2:TheDecisiontoRecode

Havingdecidedthatweneededtofocusmorebroadlyontheentirepatternofworkinlaterlife,wetookthenextstep,evaluatingthedata.Amajorconcernwaswhetherrespondentswereaskedenoughquestionsabouttheirworkinthelatersurveystoallowustoreconstructjobhistories.Wewerepleasedtofindthatinthe1972and1977surveys,themenwereexplicitlyaskedtolisttheircurrentoccupationsandnatureofworkanddatesandnatureofanyjobchangessincetheprevioussurvey.Inaddition,severalsurveysincludedatimelineforlistingthepercentageoftimeworkedineveryyearsinceage50.Manyquestionsconcernedinformationthatoverlappedwithprevioussurveys,allowingforchecksonthereliabilityofsubjects'responses.Thisbasicinformationwasoftensupplementedwithresumés,newspaperclippings,andevenobituariesdescribingworkhistories.Thuseventhoughthedatahadnotbeencodedasworkhistories,therewereenoughdataforustoreconstructthosehistoriesforthemenreliably.

Aswithanysecondarydata,therewerealsolimitationsthatforcedustothinkcarefullyaboutthekindsofquestionswewouldandwouldnotbeabletoanswer.Onemajorconcernwasthatin1982and1986,themenwereaskedexplicitlyabouttheamountsoftimeworked,butnottheiroccupations.Manywerestillworkingfull-orpart-timein1982,andwhilemanyindicatedthenatureoftheirjobs,wecouldnotassumethatworkinformationwascompleteinthelateryears.Anotherproblemwasthatquestionsonimportantfactorsthatmightinfluenceworkdecisions,suchaspensionsandmandatoryretirement,wereaskedonlyin1977.Thus,whenanalyzingjobtransitionsafter1977,wecouldnotaccountfortheinfluenceofthesefactors.

Despitetheselimitations,thearchivestillofferedthepotentialforanalysisofworkhistoriesfromfirstjobuntillaterlifeforthemen,

lettingusconsiderbroadpatternsofworkandindividualtransitions.Richdataonmilitaryexperience,health,education,andfamilywouldallowmanycomparisonsamongdifferentfacetsofmen'slives.However,weneededtorefineourinitialresearchquestionsonthelong-termeffectsofthewaronworkandretirementsubstantiallyifweweretobuildonthevaststrengthsofthearchiveaswellastoaccountforitsweaknesses.

Step3:RefiningtheResearchQuestions

Amajorconceptualchangebroughtaboutbyourdecisiontorecodewasthechangeinemphasisfromretirementtolater-lifecareers.While

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manystudieshaveexaminedaspectsofgradualorpartialretirement(e.g.Fillenbaum&Maddox,1974;Fuchs,1982;Gustman&Steinmeier,1984;Honig&Hanoch,1985;Myers,1991),fewhaveexaminedindividualwork-lifepatterns.Giventhislackofinformation,ourfirstresearchtaskcenteredondescribingthetrajectoriesandtransitionsthesemenfollowedastheyenteredtheirlateryears.Whatwerethemajorpatternsofworkinoursample,andhowwerethemendistributedamongthem?Whatpercentageofmen''retired"inasingletransition?Whatpercentagereducedtheirtimeslowly,andhowmanyleftandreenteredthelaborforce?Finally,withineachoftheseoverallpatterns,whatdidtheindividualtransitionslooklike?Howmanytransitionswerethere,andwhatpercentageofmendefinedoneormoreofthosetransitionsasaretirement?

Afterdescribingthesepatterns,wefocusednextonthetaskofdeterminingwhichfactorsshapethedirectionofworklives.Occupationandself-employmentclearlyoffersomepeoplemoreflexibilitythanothers,whileincome,pensions,andmandatoryretirementpoliciesprovideopportunitiesorconstraintsforworkinthelateryears.Beyondthese,howdootherfactorssuchasspouse'semployment,health,andearlierworkissues,suchasmilitaryserviceaffectworklives?Ourthirdtaskwastoaddresstheimplicationsofthetimingandshapeofworktrajectoriesforotherpatternsofaging.Doesthepatternofworkhaveanyrelationshiptoactivitylevel,well-being,orlongevity?ThesenewresearchquestionsallowustomakefulluseofthestrengthsoftheTermanarchive,astheylookattherelationshipsbetweenworkandotheraspectsofmen'slives.

CreatingNewCodes

Step4:EvaluatingAvailableCodingSchemes

Inthehealthexample(Chapter3),wedeterminedtherewasnoexistingcodingschemethatwouldfitourdataandmeetourresearchneeds.Incodinglate-lifecareers,severalfactorsfavoredusingU.S.CensusBureauoccupationandindustrycodesasthebasisforournewscheme.First,thesecodeswereusedforoccupationpriorto1960,andchangingtoanotherschemewouldrequirerevisingtheearliercodes.Second,occupationalinformationintheTermanarchiveconsistentlyincludedquestionsaboutoccupationandthenatureofwork,theessentialinformationneededforcensuscodes.Finally,detailedmanualson

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correctclassificationofoccupationandindustryareavailablefromtheCensusBureau.Thedecisiontouseastandardizedcodingschemesavedavastamountoftime,becausewecouldavoidthestepofmakingsummarysheets,whichrequiresreadingandrecordingeachcasepriortotheactualcoding.Also,usingacommoncodingschemeincreasescomparabilitywithotherstudies.

Adaptingastandardschemetothedemandsoftheresearchquestionsandthedatarequiresseveralmovesbackandforthamongtheresearchquestions,thecodingscheme,andthedatauntilthefinalschemeiscomplete.Thefirststepistoestablishspecificrecodinggoalstoensuremaximumfitbetweenresearchquestionsandfinalcodes.Inrecodingworkinlaterlife,aprimarygoalwastocreatenewcodesflexibleenoughtobeadaptedforfutureresearchprojects.Thismeantthinkingaboutallpossibleusesofthework-lifedataandattemptingtocreatecodestomeetthesepotentialneeds.Thuswedecidedtoconvertoccupationaldataineachsurveywaveto1980censuscodes,eventhoughourcurrentresearchinterestsfocusedmoreonlife-historydata.Inthelongrun,conversionofthecross-sectionaldatatocensuscodeswouldcontinueourearliereffortstoapplyasingle,standardizedoccupationalcodingschemetoalloccupationaldatainthearchive.Oncethiswascomplete,usersofthearchivecouldeasilycompareoccupationsacrosssurveywaves,wherepreviouslytheyhadtorelyondifferentcodingschemesovertime.

Tomeetourmoreimmediateresearchneeds,wewouldalsoneedtocreatecodesforworktransitionsandtrajectories.Beginningin1960(whenthepreviousrecodingeffortstopped),wewereinterestedinanychangeinemployer,occupation,industry,ortimeworkedasatransition.Withineachtransition,twocomponentswereofparticularconcern.First,wewantedtoknowaboutcharacteristicsofthetransition,suchaswhenitoccurred,iftherespondentdefineditasaretirement,andifitwasdirectlyrelatedtoahealthchange.Second,

weneededrelevantinformationonthenewjob(consideringfullretirementasavalidjobstate),includingemployer,industry,occupation,andtimeworked.Thislevelofdetailwouldallowustoanalyzekeytransitions,suchasthosethesubjectdefinedasaretirement,orthewholepatternoftransitions,possiblycontrastingthetotalnumberoftransitionsortherangeofoccupationsworkedinthelateryears.

Becausetheoveralltrajectoryofworkheldsignificanttheoreticalinterestforus,wealsowantedtodevelopsomegeneralmeasuresthatmightnotbeeasilyobtainedfromthetransitiondata.Wewereespeciallyinterestedintheoverallpatternoftimeworked,sothatwecould

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makebroadcomparisonsamongpatternssuchasasingleretirement,slowreductionintimeworked,andmovementinandoutofthelaborforce.Additionalinformationaboutwhethertherespondenteverdidconsultingwork,hadasignificantchangeinthetypeofworkinhislateryears,orcontinuedperformingwork-relatedtaskswithoutpayafterleavingthelaborforcecouldalsobeincludedhere.

Step5:WritingtheCodebook

Havingdevelopedageneralframeworktomeetourresearchinterests,weinitiatedtheiterativeprocessoftryingourpreliminarycodesonactualcasesandrevisingthedefinitionsandrules.Ifsummarysheetsarecompletedasapreliminarystep,aswiththehealthexample,thisprocessmaybesomewhatshortenedbecauseresearchersbecomeveryfamiliarwiththespecificaspectsofthedatawhilecompletingthesummarysheets.Bycontrast,whenapreexistingschemeisusedasabasisfornewcodes,thisrefinementprocessbecomesacrucialstepinachievingagoodfitbetweenconceptsanddata.

Inourfirstattempttocheckthepreliminarycodes,werandomlyselected20cases.Anyproblemswerefullydocumented,andafterallcaseshadbeencoded,changesweremadeinthecodebook.Thisinitialprocesscontinueduntil20-30casescouldbeadequatelycodedwithfewornoproblems.Next,wehadthreepeopleunfamiliarwiththeprojectattempttocodeasampleofcases.Theywereinstructedtonoteanyproblemsandambiguitiestheyencountered,andwhencompleted,theirresponseswerecomparedtoassesstheinitialreliabilityofthecodes.Afterfurtherrevisionsweremade,theactualcodingcouldbegin,althoughassessmentandcorrectionofanyproblemscontinuedthroughoutthecodingoperation.

Step6:CodingtheCase

Oneofthefirststepsincodingacaseistocompileandorganizeall

relevantdata.Ifsummarysheetshavebeenmadeasapreliminarystep,theycanbeusedforthispurpose.Wedidnotcompletesummarysheets,butcodersnotedkeyworkeventsandotherrelevantinformationwhilecodingeachcase.Thesenotationsorganizerelevantinformationscatteredthroughoutthefile,documentcodingdecisions,andserveasausefulreferenceforlateruse.

Figure4.3isanexampleofacompletedcodingform.Themeaningofeachcodeisdefinedinthecodebook,butevenwithoutit,wecanreconstructthebasicoutlineofthisrespondent'sworkhistory.The

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Figure4.3.ExampleCodingFormforLate-LifeCareers

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Figure4.3.(continued)ExampleCodingFormforLate-LifeCareers

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codingschemeisdividedintofoursections.Occupationineachsurveyyearandincomedata(availableonlyfor1976)arelistedonthefirstpage.Aquickglanceindicatesthatthisman,bornin1910,wasstilllivingin1986.Acomptrollerforaninsurancecompanyin1959,hehadbecomevicepresidentby1972.By1977,hewasaself-employedrealestatebrokerworkingjustundertwodaysaweek.

Thesecondpageofthecodingformincludescodesfortransitions,trajectories,andsomechecksondataquality.Thismanhadsixtransitionsbetween1970and1984,includingpromotiontovicepresidentofhiscompany,retirementfromthatcompany,becomingafull-timeinvestmentbroker,movingtopart-timerealestatework,thenslowlyreducinghisworktimesothatatage74heworkedlessthanadayaweek.Atthebottomofthetransitionsection,avalueof2forthevariableCONFTRANindicatesthatwearerelativelycertainthisrespondenthadsixtransitions,plusorminusone.

Thefinalsectionofthecodingformincludesseveralsummarymeasures,includingourmeasureforoverallpatternofworktime(WORKTRAJ).Acodeof1indicatesthatthismanslowlyreducedhisworktime.Othercodesshowthatthismandidsomepaidconsultingbeforeorafterhisretirement(CONSULT),thathehadafunctionalchangeinoccupationwhenhewentfromadministrationtosales(FCH),andthathecontinuedsomeformofunpaidworkafterhebeganreducinghispaideffort(CONT).Othercodesprovidefurtherinformationondataquality,availability,andthecoderforthiscase.Aswiththehealthexample,afull-screendata-entryprogramwasusedsothatthecomputerscreenlookedidenticaltothecodeform,thusmaximizingaccuracyandefficiency.

Step7:AssessingReliabilityandValidity

InterraterReliability

Aftercodingwascomplete,wecouldevaluatethereliabilityofthecodingeffort.Ninereliabilitycheckshadbeenconductedatevenintervalsthroughoutthecodingscheme,totalingjustover10%ofthesample.Ateachcheck,twocodersindependentlyassessedeachcaseandtheircodeswerethencompared.Attheendofthecodingprocess,resultsfromeachreliabilitycheckwerecombined,andkappastatisticswerecalculatedforeachvariable.

Resultsfromthereliabilityestimatesindicateahighlevelofinterrateragreement.Themeankappaforthecross-sectionaloccupation,industry,andtimemeasureswas.84.Withinthisgroup,timeworkedin

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1959hadasurprisinglylowvalueof.35.Furtherexaminationofthedatarevealedthatcoderagreementonthisvariablewasquitehigh(93%),butthatbecausealmostallmenwereworkingfull-timein1959,therewasverylittlevariationinthedistribution,makingchanceagreementhighalso.Inthiscase,insteadofindicatingunreliablecodes,alowkappareflectsahighlyskeweddistribution.

Reliabilityestimatesforincomeandeventmeasureswerejustaspromising,rangingfrom1.0to.72.Amongthesummarymeasures,whetherarespondenthadafunctionalchangeinoccupationwasthemostdifficulttocode,andthekappa(.67)reflectedthisdifficulty.Eventhisvaluewasnotalarminglylow,but,combinedwiththecoders'concerns,itindicatedourneedtousethemeasurecautiously.Agreementwasquitegoodforwork-lifetrajectory(.79),consulting(.84),andcontinuityinpaidtounpaidwork(.81).

Validity

Tocheckthevalidityofthenewcodeswecomparedoverallpatternsofworkinlaterlifewithemploymentcharacteristicssuchasself-employmentandoccupation.Beforeturningtothesecomparisons,however,wefirstdescribesomebasicaspectsofworkinlaterlifethatarenewlyaccessibleafterourcodingeffort.

Overall,theTermanmenaveragedthreetransitionsinemployer,occupation,industry,ortimeworkedbetween1959and1986.Byfar,thelargestpercentage(28%)hadonetransition,but8%hadnoneand22%hadfiveormore.Narrowingourfocustotransitionsthatrespondentsdefinedasretirements,wefindthatmostmeninoursample(62%)definedonlyonetransitionasaretirement,while31%hadnoretirementsand7%retiredtwoormoretimes.

Amongthosewhodidretire,wealsofindthatmanymencontinuedworkinginsomecapacityafterretirement.Inoursample,55%

completelyexitedthelaborforceimmediatelyafteraself-definedretirement.Amongthe45%whoremainedworking,25%continuedworkingfull-time,14%continuedworkingbetweenhalf-andfull-time,29%workedbetweenone-quarterandone-thirdtime,and15%continuedworkinginaminimalcapacity.Amongthosestillemployedafterretirement,44%wereself-employed,26%workedforprivateemployers,andtheremaining30%workedforgovernment,foundation,oreducation-relatedemployers.Thus,evenamongmenwho''retired"fromjobs,therewasaconsiderableamountofcontinuityinpaidemploymentafterthatretirement.

Whileafocusonsingletransitionsisinformative,itstilldoesnotprovidetheoverallviewofmen'sworkinlaterlifethatinterestsus.

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Somemenslowlyreducedtheirtimeuntiltheywerecompletelyoutofthelaborforce,butneverdefinedanysingletransitionasaretirement.Others"retired"butcontinuedworkingfull-timeinsimilartypesofjobs.Togetabroadersenseofworkinlaterlife,wedefinedfivepotentialpatternsofworkandlaborforceexit.

ForTermanmen,thesinglemostcommonpattern(35%)wasgradualreductioninworktime,applyingtoallwhosignificantlyreducedworktimemorethanoncebutneverleftthelaborforceorwhoreducedworktwoormoretimesbeforefullyretiring.Thesecondmostcommonpatternwasasingleexitoutofthelaborforce,applyingto28%ofthesample.Otherpatternsweresporadicmovementinandoutofthelaborforce(15%),nosignificantreductioninworktimebythelastsurvey(14%),andonepartialreductionandthenafullexitfromthelaborforce(7%).

Onemeasureofthevalidityofthesepatternsisacomparisonofself-definedretirementswiththeoverallpatterns.Whilethetwomeasuresprovideverydifferenttypesofinformationaboutworklives,thereshouldbesomeassociationbetweenmen'sself-reportedretirementsandcertainpatterns.Forexample,44%ofthemenwhodefinedonetransitionasaretirementfitthepatternofasingleexitfromthelaborforce,whileonly2%ofthemenwhohadnoself-definedretirementsfitthispattern.However,amongthosewithoneself-definedretirement,otherpatternswerepossible:29%hadagradualreductionintheirworktimeand17%retiredorreducedtheirworktimeandlaterincreasedworktime.

Weexpectotheraspectsofwork,suchasself-employmentandoccupation,tobeassociatedwithoverallpatternsofworkinlaterlife.Self-employedmenarelikelytohavegreaterflexibilityinchoosingwhenandhowtheyreducetheirwork.Inmanycasesthisflexibilitymaybecoupledwithgreatereconomicpressuretocontinueworking

intheabsenceofanemployer'spensionplan,andbothfactorsmaymaketheself-employedmorelikelytoreducetheirworktimegradually(Fuchs,1982).

InpartAofFigure4.4weconfirmtheseexpectations.In1959,self-employedmenweremuchmorelikelytoreducetheirworktimegradually(52%versus29%),whilewageandsalaryworkersweremoreaptto"retire"once(32%versus15%).Wenotewithinterestthatthetwoemploymentgroupshadanequallikelihoodofcontinuingfull-timework,andthatmeninwageandsalaryjobsin1959weremorelikelytoretireandthenreturntothelaborforce(18%versus8%).Probablymanywageandsalaryearnersin1959whodidnotreducetheirhoursorwhograduallyreducedthemswitchedtoself-employmentatsomelaterpointintheirworklives.Futureanalyseswillbeabletocombine

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Figure4.4.PatternsofWorkinLaterLifebyEmploymentandOccupation

informationonwork-lifepatternswiththatonsequencesoftransitionstoexplorethesedifferencesfurther.

PartBofFigure4.4compareswork-lifepatternsacrossfour1959occupations.Agradualreductioninworktimewasmostcommonamonglawyers,80%ofwhomwereself-employed,andleastcommonamongsalesmen.Interestingly,managers/executives(37%)wereaslikelyasprofessors(30%)toreduceworktimegradually.Furtheranalysesindicatethataboutafourthofmanagersorexecutivesin1959

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laterchangedcareers,andanequalpercentageworkedasconsultantsintheirlateryears.Bothchangesmayallowamoregradualreductioninworkthanmightbeexpectedinamanagerialposition.

Percentagesofmenwhoexitedthelaborforceoncealsovarysignificantlyacrossoccupations.Amongsalesmen,42%fitthetraditionalpatternofasingleretirement;attheotherextreme,only15%oflawyersretiredinthisway.Mostsurprising,arelativelyhighpercentageofprofessorsretiredatonepoint(36%),butsubsequentanalysessuggestthatmany(61%)continuedunpaidprofessionalactivitiesafterreducingorstoppingpaidwork.Theotherthreework-lifepatternsarerelativelysimilaracrossoccupations,anddifferences,suchasbetweenlawyersandsalesmen,mirrorthecorrespondingdifferencesinself-employment.

Overall,thesecomparisonssuggestthatourmeasuresofwork-lifepatterns,likethoseofhealthtrajectoriesinChapter3,provideaunique,butnotcontradictory,viewofworkinlaterlife.Consistentwithpreviousresearch,ourfindingsshowthatpatternsofworkcorrespondcloselytotheflexibilityofanemploymentsituation,thussupportingthevalidityofthesenewmeasures.Atthesametime,however,themeasuresdocumentadynamicviewofworkandretirementthatenablesustoaddressthecomplexityofmen'sworkexperiencesinlaterlife.

5.MeasuringHistoricalInfluencesWehavedescribeduptothispointaseriesofstepstobetakenintherecastingofarchivaldatasothattheyprovideabetterfitwithresearchquestions.Inthisconcludingchapter,wefocusononeofthemorechallengingproblemsinlife-coursestudyextractingacceptable

measuresofhistoricalinfluencefromdataarchives.Problemformulationiscriticaltothistask,andweunderscoretheneedtoincorporatehistoricalinfluencesinthequestioniftheyareofinteresttotheproject.Thefinedetailofproceduresinpriorchaptershaslowerprioritythanconceptualizationinthischapter.

Anincreasedawarenessofhistoricalforcesinhumanlivesdistinguishesthelife-courserevolutiongenerally,butnotintheprioritiesofdatacollection.Forthemostpart,longitudinalstudieshavenoteasedthetaskofputtingsuchawarenessintopractice.AsnotedinChapter2,theTermanStudyignoredhistoricalinfluences.StudymemberslivedthroughtheGreatDepressionandWorldWarIIduringaformativetimeofeducation,familybuilding,andcareerbeginnings,yetthe1936-1950

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follow-upsincludenotonequestionthatdirectlyfocusesoneitherperiodofprofoundhistoricalchange.AmorerecentexampleofthisblindnessisthePanelStudyofIncomeDynamics,whichbeganannualdatacollectiononpovertyissuesin1968uninformedbythemobilizationofdisadvantagedyoungmenforserviceinVietnam.

Withtheselimitationsinmind,theLewisTermanarchivewouldseemtobethelastplaceinwhichtoinvestigatehistoricalinfluences.Howcanoneexploresuchinfluenceswhentheoriginalstudydirectoraskednodirectquestionsaboutthetimes?Onepossibleoptioninvolvestheuseofvolunteeredobservationsorreportsonpersonallife.TheTermandataarchiveincludesanabundanceofsuchinformationonmostcases,fromjottingsontheedgesofpagesofclosed-endedquestionstotangentialexpansionsofanswersforopen-endedquestionsandrepliestolettersfromtheTermanStudystaff.Anotheroptioninvolvestheuseofcollecteddatatomeasure,ifonlyindirectly,aprocessoreventofhistoricalsignificance.Terman'soccupationalhistoriesinrelationtoWorldWarIIareacaseinpoint.

Thesehistoriesareavailableontheoldestmenduringthe1930sandtellussomethingaboutthedifficultiesofcareerbeginningsinhardtimes.However,mostofthehistoriescoveronlythelasthalfofthedecadeandthusmisstheheartoftheGreatDepression.Bycomparison,theTermanstaffcollectedoccupationalinformationforeachyearacrossthewarera,andsuchdataonmilitaryserviceorcivilianemploymentareavailableonvirtuallyallstudymembers.Thefollow-upsin1940,1945,and1950aremostimportantinprovidingthisinformation.

The1945surveyformreachedsomemenwhiletheywerestillunderfireonthefrontlines.TermanreceivedthefollowingnoteappendedtoaninformationblankfromtheSouthPacific:''Ihavebeentryingtokillsomementoday,andtheyinturnhavebeentryingtokillme.In

betweentheseendeavorsIhavefilledoutyourinformationblank.It'saverystrangemannerofliving!"Forthesemenintheservice,thesectiononemploymentprovidedaplaceinwhichtodescribechangesinrankandlocation.

TheoccupationalhistoriesprovednottobeusefultotheconcernsTerman'sresearchgroupaddressed,and"theywereverydifficult"tocodeinthe1970sand1980s(RobertSears,personalcommunication,1987).Nonetheless,thesedataareamongthecorematerialsfromwhichwefashionedanempiricalapproachtohistoricalinfluenceinmen'slives.Lettersfromstudymembersandtheirwives,plusreportsfromsupervisorsandfieldworkers,interviewtranscripts,andnewsclippingswerealsovaluable.WebenefitedimmenselyfromSears'sinitialeffort

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toextractallmilitaryandwarmaterialfromthe1945survey.Indeed,hiscodingeffortprovidedapointofdepartureforus.

InthischapterweshowhowourpreliminaryeffortstoassesstheeffectsofwartimeexperienceinthelivesoftheTermanmenfounderedonmeasuresthatprovedtobeinadequateinconceptandoperation.Thisdiscoveryeventuallyledtoarecodingdecisiononmultipleaspectsofwartimeexperienceandtoaserendipitousfindingonhome-frontemploymentthatledtoabroaderconceptofwarmobilization.Theinter-playofresearchquestionandarchivaldataisclearlyoutlinedbythisinvestigativeprocess.

LinkingHistoricalInfluencesandIndividualLives

TheTermanmencametomilitarymobilizationinWorldWarIIatarelativelylateage,whentheywerelaunchingadultcareersinworkandfamily.Weidentifiedtwoproblemfociandtheirresearchquestionsonthistransitionandsubsequentmilitaryexperience.Firstwastimeofentryasaprobleminmen'slives.Bothlife-coursetheoryandempiricalfindings(Elder,1987)ledustoexpectmoredisruptionandsocioeconomiccostsfromtheserviceformenwhoenteredthewarbeyondage30orso.Asecondlineofresearchquestionsaddressesthestressfulnessofwartimeserviceanditslife-courseandhealtheffects.Exposuretoheavycombatincreasestheriskofposttraumaticstresssymptomsaswellasthelikelihoodofenduringrelationships(Elder&Clipp,1988).

Ausefulfirststepinhistoricalanalysisistheidentificationofbirthcohortsandtheirrelationtospecificeventsandexperiences.Bylocatingstudymembersinhistory,birthyearenablesustorelatelivestospecificconditionsandchanges,suchastheonsetofWorldWarII.Butwedonotknowwhetherallmeninabirthyearwereactuallyexposedtotheseconditionsorchanges.Moreinformationisneeded.

Tosomeextent,then,theconnectionisimprecise,andcausallinksbetweensocialhistoryandlivesaregenerallylefttotheimagination.Nevertheless,groupingstudymembersinbirthcohortsprovidesabeginningandapointofdeparture.

Itisausefulpointofdepartureforthestudyofhistoricalinfluenceiftheoriginatingquestionconcernsthisinfluence.However,cohortstudiesarenotnecessarilymotivatedbythisconcern(Schaie,1965).Indeed,themotivationforcomparingsuccessivebirthcohortsofchildrenoradultsmaystemfromtheassumptionofdevelopmentalinvariance.Environmentalvariationsdonotmatter,atleastinprinciple.Withthisinmind,

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Table5.1AgeorTermanMenbyBirthCohorts,byHistoricalEvents

Date EventAgebyBirthCohort1900-19091910-1920

1914-18 WorldWarI 5-18 0-81921-19221920sdepression 12-22 1-121923-1929generaleconomicboom 14-29 3-191929-1933GreatDepressiononset 20-33 9-231933-1936partialrecovery 24-36 13-261937-1938economicslump 28-38 17-281939-1940startofwarmobilization 30-40 19-301941-1943majorgrowthofarmedforcesandwarindustries 32-43 21-331945 endofWorldWarII 36-45 25-351950-1953KoreanWar 41-53 30-431957 peakofbabyboom 48-57 37-471963-1973VietnamWar 54-73 43-631973 endofpostwaraffluence 64-73 53-63

cohortsareviewedassamplesthatpermitatestofthisinvarianceorofthegeneralizationboundaries(Baltes,Cornelius,&Nesselroade,1979).Cohortsequentialdesignsaretypicallyusedforthispurpose.

Bycomparison,researchquestionsonhistoricaleffectsarepromptedbyaverydifferentpremise,thatofdevelopmentalvariationacrosscultures,socialstructures,andhistoricaltimes.However,evenwhenhistoricalinfluenceissubstantivelyimportant,itmaybeoperationalizedasaperiodorcohorteffectthatprovidesnopreciseinformationastothenatureoftheinfluence.Weknowthatmembersofaparticularcohortarenotuniformlyexposedtothehistoricalrecord,andthatexperientialvariationswithinspecificcohortsaresubstantial.

Successivebirthcohortsencounterthesamehistoricalconditionsatdifferentstagesoflifeandsoexperiencetheeventsdifferently(Table

5.1).However,evenmembersofacohortdonotallhavethesamehistoricalexperience.Notallmembersoftheolderandyoungercohortswereexposedtoseverehardshipinthe1930s(weassume),andfewerthanhalfservedinWorldWarII50%oftheyoungermenand35%oftheoldermen.

Membershipinaspecificbirthcohortgenerallyindicatesaperson'slifestageatthetimeofchange,suchastheearly30sformenintheolderTermancohortwhentheUnitedStatesenteredthewar.However,

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cohortswithawideagerangedonotalwayslocatepeoplewithenoughprecision.AgegradingbytheU.S.SelectiveServiceenablesustoachievegreaterspecificityforastudyofwarmobilizationbyusingageatentryintothemilitaryservice.OftheTermanmen,36%enteredthearmedforcesbeforeage30,42%wereinductedatages30through32,andtheremainderenteredafterage32.Theselateentrantsweremobilizedatleast4yearsbeyondthemedianageforallservicemenduringWorldWarII.AmajorityofTermanveteranswereinductedbetweenthesummersof1942and1944anddemobilizedabout4yearslater.

FromthecomputerizedfileofdataontheTermanmen,wemanagedtoanswersomegeneraldescriptivequestionsconcerningthemobilizedandthenonmobilized.Draftdefermentpolicychangedasmanpowerneedssoaredduringthemiddleofthewar,butmenwithchildrenwerelesslikelytobedraftedthroughoutthewarthanwerechildlessmarriedmenandsinglemen.WefoundacomparabledifferentiationamongtheTermanmen,plusatendencyforlaterentrantstobebettereducated.ThismodestdifferenceineducationisnotreflectedbyacorrespondingIQdifferenceallthreeentrygroupsareidenticalonIQ(Elder&Clipp,1991).Attheveryleast,menwhoenteredafterage30hadmoretimeinwhichtocompletepostgraduateeducation,comparedwithearlyentrants.

Therecruitsservedinallbranches,butmostwereineitherthearmyorthenavy(62%and34%,respectively).Abouthalfofthemenwereofficersatentryintoformalduty,reflectingtheirhighlevelofeducationandintellectualability.Thisproportionincreasedtothree-fourthsbythetimeofdemobilization.NearlyafourthofthemenservedintheEuropeantheater;athirdservedinthePacifictheater.TheremainderhadmixedhistoriesoflocationintheUnitedStatesandabroad.Oneinfourneverservedabroad.

MilitaryservicewasonlypartofwarmobilizationduringWorldWarII,anddidnotincludethemajorityofTermanmen.Withmilitaryserviceandhome-frontemploymentaselementsoftwohistoricalboundariesforWorldWarII,wedefinedthebeginningofthenation'swarmobilizationintermsofenactmentoftheSelectiveServiceActonSeptember16,1940,andextendeditbeyondtheformalendofthewarthroughthewindingdownofdemobilization.WorkhistoriesontheTermanmenenabledustoobtainpremobilizationemploymentbetweenJanuaryandJune1940,andtheninformationonpostmobilizationemploymentbeginningduringthewinterof1948.ThesecondsetofboundariesmarkstheformalentryoftheUnitedStatesintothewarandtheJapanesesurrenderonAugust14,1945(Figure5.1).

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Figure5.1.U.S.MobilizationandInvolvementinHostilities,

WorldWarII

Inthecourseofarchivalworkforthemilitaryserviceproject,webegantoseenewpossibilitiesforstudyingtheimpactofwarmobilizationonmenwhoremainedciviliansandonmeneventuallymobilizedformilitarydutyatalatertime.Weenvisionedwaysofmovingbeyondmereevidenceofcivilianemploymenttoevidenceofwar-related,home-frontmobilization.TheTermanliferecordsshowthatsomemenonthehomefrontweresubjecttogreaterstressesandopportunitiesthantheywouldhaveexperiencedinpeacetime.Yetmanpowerdemandsdidnotfallevenlyonall.Forsome,thewarmeantlonghours,radicaloccupationalshifts,andcross-countryrelocation,whileforothersitproducedrelativelylittlechange.

Butwhat,weasked,arethedefiningfeaturesofwarmobilization?WiththecollaborationofAndrewWorkmanfromtheDepartmentofHistoryattheUniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill,weconceptualizedmobilizationastheorganizationofsocietyforwarinwhichthestatestrikesabalancebetweentwoprocessesthecommitmentofalargepartofanation'sproductiontothemilitaryandthecontinuedprovisionforthecivilianpopulation(Fairchild&Grossman,1959).Beyondthis,thestatemustdeterminethedegreetowhichnormalsocialandeconomicprocessesshouldbecontrolled.Toachievegoalsinwartime,variousagenciesoftheAmericanstatemadeexplicitdeterminationsastowhatconstitutedmobilization.We

chosetorelyonrelevantstatedecisionstodelineatetypesofmobilization.

AnextensivesearchoftheadministrativehistoriesproducedduringthewarledustothepoliciesoftheWarManpowerCommissionandtheSelectiveServiceAdministrationtoascertaintheimportanceofaman'sactivitytothewarasawhole.Wecombinedthegeneralguidelines

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forlocalmanpowercommitteesandselectiveserviceboardswithmoreexplicitlistsofessentialactivitiestoproducecategoriesofwarmobilizationthatcouldbeappliedtolife-recorddatabytrainedcoders.Thetwolevelsareasfollows:

1.Civilianactivitiesnecessarytowarproduction:Studymemberscouldbeeither(a)processingorproducingships,planes,tanks,gunsandothermachines,andinstruments,articles,andmaterialsdirectlyusedinconductingwaror(b)governmentofficialsemployedbywaragenciesorcivilianemployeesemployedbythearmedforces.ExamplesincludeascientistengagedinweaponsresearchandanattorneyontheWarProductionBoard.

2.Civilianactivitiessupportingthewareffort:Thesewereactivitiesdeemedessentialforthenationalhealth,safety,orinterestotherthanwarproductionthatsupportedthewareffort,includingoccupationsthatproducedforbothcivilianandmilitaryneeds,suchasminingandagriculture.Examplesaretextilemanufacturerandpoliceofficer.

Theutilityoftheseanalyticdistinctionswasaffirmedbyareviewofindividualcasesandbytheopportunitytoplacethewartimeemploymentexperienceofmenwithintheframeworkofwarmobilization.Exploringhome-frontaswellasmilitarymobilizationwouldresultinamuchbroaderconceptoftheoriginalstudyandarareopportunitytoinvestigatethesecompetingprocessesinmen'slives.

Toachievethisend,wehadtodeviseserviceablemeasuresofmilitaryexperiencefromthefollow-upof1945-1946,adatacollectionnotaddressedtowartimeexperienceinacomprehensivemanner.Forexample,themenwerenotaskeddirectlyabouttheirexposuretocombat,althoughtheyoftenreportedsuchexperienceswhenansweringotherquestions.Duringtheearly1980s,RobertSears,thendirectoroftheTermanStudy,organizedanefforttocodethesurveyof

1945-1946andgavepersonalattentiontoreportsonwartimeservice.OneofSears'scodesfocusedonexposuretocombatinageneralway,andwedecidedtoseeifwecouldusethemeasuretoindexwartimestress.

Inadditiontothissourceofinformation,Searsenabledustocollectretrospectiveinformationonwartimeexperiencesduringthe1986follow-up.Wewerewellawareofthememorylimitationsofsuchquestions,butourdoubtsaboutwartimemeasuresfromthe1945-1946follow-upencouragedthisinitiative.DrawingonaretrospectivesurveyofOaklandGrowthStudymembersin1985,weaddeditemstothe1986follow-uponactiveduty,suchascombatexposure,durationofcombat

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service,useoftheG.I.Bill,andappraisalsofthepersonalimpactofwartimeservice.Approximately850Termanmenandwomenreturnedthesurveyformin1986,amongthemmorethan200maleveterans.

These1986datawerenotimmediatelyavailabletousontapeformeasuringcombatexperience,soweacquiredcopiesofthesurveyformstocomparethemwithcombatinformationfromthe1945-1946follow-up.Wehopedtofindsubstantialcorrespondencebetweenreportsofwartimecombatatthetwotimepoints,acongruencethatwouldenableustoincludecaseswithreportsofcombatexposureateithertime.Thisprovedtobeafancifulaspirationinmanyrespects.Ourmeasuresofcombatexperiencein1945-1946and1986leftmuchtobedesired,andstudiesoftheaccuracyofretrospectiveaccountsdidnotoffermuchempiricalsupport.Nevertheless,weconsideredthecomparisontobeourbestmeasurementstrategyatthetime.Couldweemergewithconfidenceinameasureofcombatexperience?

Wesoonencountereddismayingresults.First,theelderlysampleof1986providedarelativelysmallcross-timesample,especiallywhenwedefinedthesampleintermsofevidenceoncombatinbothdatacollections.Second,thecorrespondencebetweencombatcaseswastoolowtoinspireconfidenceineithermeasurement.The1986report(askingrespondentsiftheyspentaweekormoreincombat)agreedwiththe1945index(exposedtocombatornot)inonly38%ofthecases.Wediscoveredotherdiscrepanciesondatesofserviceentryandexit,rankatentryandexit,andevenonbranchofservice.

Toresolvethediscrepanciesoncombatandotheraspectsofwartimeservice,welaunchedareviewofmaterialsfortheproblemcasesintheprojectarchive.Someinconsistencieswerepartiallyorcompletelyresolvedinthismanner,particularlywhenlettersandothersupportingdocumentswereavailable.However,morequestionsthananswers

wereraisedbythefilesonothercases.Basedonthesefindings,wereluctantlyconcludedthatavalidmeasureofcombatexperiencecouldnotbeobtainedfromthe1945-1946and1986data,aloneorincombination.Moreover,wecouldnotavoiddoubtsregardingthequalityofmeasurementonotherfacetsofthewartimeexperience.

Twooptionsfacedusatthispoint.Wecouldrestrictourproposedstudyofwartimeexperiencetoonlythose1945-1946datainwhichwehadconfidence,orwecoulddevelopsuitablecodesandapplythemtoanenrichedfileoflife-historymaterialonstudymembers.Toobtainsuchafile,wewouldneedpermissiontophotocopyallrelevantmaterialintheTermanarchiveatStanfordUniversity.Developingacodebook

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andapplyingittothedatawouldfollow.Withnoinformedguidelinesforestimatesoftimeandcost,wechosethesecondoption,inthebeliefthatwecouldcompletethetaskinsixmonths.Grantresourcesdidnotcoverthetravelexpenseorcodingenterpriseitself,asweanticipateditatthetime.Buttheywereevenlesssufficienttocovertheactualprojectasitunfolded,includingfourtripstoStanfordofabouttwoweekseachandnearlyafullyearofcoding.

Nevertheless,werealizedthatrecastingtheTermanarchiveforthepurposesofthisstudywouldenableustodotheproposedresearchandtodoitbetterthanwethoughtwecouldduringtheplanningstage.Thiswassobecausenewcodingoncombatexperiencesmademoresensewhenexpandedtoamultifacetedaccountofwartimeexperiencesinthecontextofmen'slifetimemilitaryservice.Fromtheverybeginningthisaccountincludedbothmilitaryandhome-frontmobilization.Menmobilizedformilitaryservicetypicallycamefromemploymentofsomekind,andweviewedthisworkexperience,veryloosely,aspartofhome-frontmobilization.

Astudyofthiskindcallsfordetailedcodingofoccupationsduringthewaranditsdemobilizationphase.WewerefamiliarwiththeTermandataonwork,andweknewthatthedisruptionanddisorderoflifeinwartimecouldsubstantiallydiminishthecompletenessandoverallqualityofworkhistoriesacrossthewaryears.Nevertheless,theTermandataonoccupationalchangestandatthecenteroftheindividualfiles,generouslysupplementedbyletterstoandfromtheTermanstaff,careeradvicefromTerman,andnewsclippings.

Anyreworkingofthewartimeoccupationaldatawouldclearlyaddtotheburdenoftherecastingeffortforthemilitarystudy,yetwecouldalsoachieveeconomiesofscalebylinkingthetwostudies.Theyarecomplementaryintheirresearchondifferentaspectsofwarmobilization,andbothrequiredthepreparationofcodebooksandtheir

applicationtodatabytrainedcoders.Thesameteamofcoderscouldbetrainedforthetworecastingefforts.Withtheseconsiderationsinmind,wedescribethedevelopmentofthenewcodesandtheirapplication.

NewCodesforResearchQuestions

Asweturntothetaskofcreatingnewcodesforourquestionsontheeffectsofmilitaryandhome-frontwarmobilization,itisusefultorecognizethedistinctivenatureofthequestionsthemselves.Ourresearchon

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Figure5.2.StudyingSocialChangeintheLifeCourse:TwoModels

historicalinfluencesbeginswiththehistoricalprocessorconditionandbranchesouttomultipleoutcomes.Thecentralquestionfocusesontheprocessbywhichsocialchangeandtimesmakeadifferenceinthelifecourse.Inthecaseofwarmobilization,weaskhowitchangesthelifesituationsofthosecaughtupintheprocess.Knowledgeoftheseeffectsprovidescluesonplausiblelife-coursevariationsandoutcomes.

Thestartingpointinresearchquestionsthatassumethisperspectiveinvolvesanunderstandingofthehistoricalprocess.Whatisthenatureofmilitaryserviceandhome-frontmobilization,andhowdiditinfluencethemeninvolved?Otherresearchquestionsbeginwithaparticularoutcomeoftheindividualandaskwhatfactorsinfluenceit.Notallfactorsinvolvetheenvironment,soresearchwiththisdesignusuallyhasverylittletosayaboutenvironmentaleffectsorsocialchange.Whenresearchviewsthesocialenvironmentfromthevantageofthedevelopingindividualincontext,itisunlikelytodevelopthefullimplicationsofachangingsocialsystemfortheindividual.

Figure5.2providesaschematicrepresentationofthetwotypesofquestions.ModelAstartswiththeindividualandworksbacktotheenvironment,whereasModelBbeginswithanenvironmentalchangeandtracesitsmultipleeffectsacrossthelifecourse.ModelB

representstheperspectivewehaveemployedinarchivalresearchonmilitaryserviceandhome-frontmobilization.Indevelopingappropriatecodesforthislineofwork,wefocusedonwartimecombatinthemilitarystudy,withsomeattentiontootheraspectsoftheserviceexperience.In

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thehome-frontstudy,workexperienceduringthewarbecamethetargetofoureffortsindevelopingmoresuitablecodes.WebeganwithconceptualnotionsaboutcombatexperienceandtheircorrespondencewiththeTermanarchivaldata,thenturnedtowaysofthinkingaboutandmeasuringworkexperienceduringWorldWarII.

CodingWartimeExperience

Fromsocialanddevelopmentalperspectives,theserviceexperiencehasatleastthreedistinctfeatures:

1.Militaryexperienceseverspastexperiencefromconsiderationsofthepresent,separatingrecruitsfromfamilyandcommunity,thuscurtailingtheinfluenceofpriorlifehistoriesandobligations.

2.Timeintheservicerepresentsalegitimatetime-outfromage-gradedcareerandresponsibilities,atimeforreassessmentandnewconsiderations.

3.Militarydutytendstobroadentherangeofpersonalexperiences,fromsocialacquaintancestonewplacesandopportunities.

Althoughgreatersocialindependence,abroaderrangeofexperiences,andatime-outfromcareerpressuresdonotcoverallrelevantfeaturesofWorldWarIImobilization,togethertheydefineacommoncultureformenwhoserved.Withinthisframework,exposuretocombatisoneofthreekeyvariablesofwartimeexperienceasweconceptualizeit.Theothersarethetimingofentry(wellmeasuredintheoriginaldata)andsocialtieswithservicemates(coveredinthe1986Termanfollow-up).

Theoreticalaccountsofwartimeexperiencehaveevolvedfromsingledimensions(e.g.,durationofexposure)inWorldWarIIstudiestomultipledimensionsinresearchonVietnamveterans.SamuelStouffer'spioneeringstudyofAmericansoldiersinWorldWarII

(Stoufferetal.,1949)reliedmainlyonaquestionaboutexposuretocombat.Bycomparison,studiesofVietnamveteranshaveusedamoredifferentiatedtheoryandmeasurementmodeltocapturethediversityofwartimestress.RobertLaufer(1985),forexample,exploredthreedimensionsofwarstressthatbearonsubsequentsymptomatologyandbehavioralproblems:(a)exposuretolife-threateningsituations,(b)exposuretoabusiveviolence,and(c)participationinepisodesofabusiveviolence.

Ourconceptualandmeasurementapproachborrowedfromthislineofthinkingbyassumingthatcombatexperienceisdefinedbyexposuretothedying,wounded,anddead,andtoincomingandoutgoinggunfire.

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Combatdurationisrelevanttofireanddeathexperiencesbyincreasingtheirprobabilityofoccurrence.Withthesedistinctionsinmind,wereviewedthefilesonapproximately30Termanmenwhoservedinthemilitary.Thisinventoryprovidedanempiricalmapofmen'swartimeexperienceasexpressedinthe1945-1946and1950follow-upmaterials,relatedletters,andreports.CatherineCross(projectmanager)andtwohighlyskilledcodersfromtheCarolinaPopulationCenterplayedcentralrolesinthissurveyandintheconstructionofamilitaryservicecodebookwithsixsections:

1.Lifetimemilitaryandmilitary-relatedexperiences:veteranstatusandtype;servicebefore,during,andafterWorldWarII;entryandexitinformation;servicecareer,branch,andunit;medalsandeducationlinkedtotheservice(e.g.,ROTC,GIBill)

2.OverseasexperiencebeforeWorldWarIIorU.S.involvement:dutyforgovernment,volunteeragency

3.Home-frontexperienceduringWorldWarII:deferments,conscientiousobjectorstatus,servicewithgovernment

4.Wartimestress:combatdurationinweeksandmonths;experienceoffiringattheenemyandofbeingfiredupon;exposuretowoundedanddead(Alliesandenemy);experiencesofbeingwounded,heldinaprisonerofwarcamp,andmissinginaction(alsoidentifiedmenkilledinaction,3%ofthetotalsample)

5.Postwarexperienceslinkedtothewar:civiladministrationdutiesduringmilitaryoccupation,medicalcareforAlliedwounded,andmedicalevaluationforrepatriationoremigration

6.DomesticexposuretocareofAmericanwoundedandthedying:experienceofmedicalpersonnelinthesample,separatedfromthoseonthefrontline

Becauseofthecomplexityofthecodingoperation,werecruitedwell-educatedcodersandtrainedtheminbasicmilitaryhistory,life-coursemethodology,andspecificcodingprocedures.Wefirstconstructedsummarysheetsonthemen'smilitaryhistorythroughcarefulreviewoftheentiredatafileonstudymembers,sincetheinformationwasnotsystematicallyorderedontheoriginalsurveyforms.Further,asubstantialpartoftheinformationcamefromsundrylettersandnewsclippings.Withaninitialdraftofthecodebookinhand,Crossandthecodersappliedittoasetofcases.Codesheetswerethencheckedanddisparitiesdiscussed.Fivesuchtrialseachledtorevisionsinthecodesthatinturnproducedanimprovedfitwiththedata.

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Table5.2ActiveDutyandCombatExperienceofTermanMenDuringWorldWarII,in

Percentages

ActiveDutyExperiencesRankatExit

TotalOfficer EnlistedAllveterans N=343WorldWarIIactiveduty 96

WorldWarIIveterans N=230 N=71 N=329servedoverseas 60 58 58servedincombattheater 47 39 43wasfiredon/firedatenemy .27 23 25sawAllied/enemywoundedorkilled 35 25 31combatyes 53 41 48no 31 35 30cannotbedetermined 17 24 22

WorldWarIIveteransservingincombattheater N=108 N=28 N=142wasfiredon/firedatenemy 57 57 57sawAllied/enemywoundedorkilled 66 61 64woundedinaction 14 18 15MIAorPOW 2 7 3killedinaction 1 7 3

Thisprocedureentailedathoroughreviewofallmaterialsforaparticularcaseoverthelifecourse,withattentiontoeventchronology.Codersweretoextractrelevantcluesanddatafromalargebodyofmaterial,tomakejudgmentsbasedontheseclues,andtoidentifypotentialtroublespotsinthedataandcodingscheme.Thepainstakingworkinfittingthecodebooktothedatapaidoffhandsomelyintheactualcodingprocess.Atthehalfwaymarkincoding,wehadcompletedreliabilitycheckson20%ofthecases,orabout85men.Thecheckswererestrictedtothewarstressmeasures,sincethisdomainwasmostimportantinourworkandrequiredthehighestlevelsofcoderexpertise

injudgment.Thetotalaverageintercoderreliabilityonthesevariableswas98%atthemid-pointandremainedabove96%overtheentireproject.

InTable5.2weusetheresultingcodestoportraycombatexperienceintheTermansample.ThreeoffiveWorldWarIIveteransservedoverseas,afigurethatdoesnotvarybyrankatdemobilization.Alargepercentageoftheoverseasveteransservedinacombattheaterwith

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someexposuretogunfireanddeath.Mostveteranswhoservedinacombatzoneshowevidenceofinvolvementinheavycombat.Forourstudy,wedefinedheavycombatintermsofexposuretogunfireanddeathordying.Allmenwhowerewoundedordeclaredmissinginaction,prisonersofwar,orkilledinactionwerealsoassignedtothiscategory.OftheTermanveterans,26%sawheavycombat,56%hadnoevidenceofcombat,and18%wereassignedtolightcombat.

ExamplesofheavycombatincludeacaptainintheRailsplittersCompany(Leinbaugh&Campbell,1985)whofoughtintheBattleoftheBulgeandanavybattalionexecutiveofficerwhoservedinfouramphibiousassaults,includingOkinawaandKwajalein.Afterfourandahalfyearsinthenavy,heobserved,''Ihavenotbeenwounded,althoughIhavehadnumerous'closeones'inthecourseof152daysofcombatwiththeJaps.''Anotherofficerserved190daysonthefrontlineaftertheNormandyinvasion,includingtheBattleoftheBulge.Termannotedin1954thatonly12matessurvivedinthecaptain'smilitaryunithe"considershimselffortunate."

Consistentwiththeliterature,wefindthatheavycombatveteranswererecruiteddisproportionatelyfrommenwhoenteredintheyoungestagecategory.Heavycombatincreasedtheriskofimpairedemotionalhealthafterthewarprimarilyamongmenwhorankedbelowaverageonself-confidenceandself-esteembeforethewar,anditmarkedlyincreasedmemoriesofthewarasahighlyinfluentialexperienceinlifeamongmeninoldage(Elder&Clipp,1991).ThoughcombatislesscommonamonglateentrantsintheTermansample,andtheirprewarhealthequaledthatoftheearlyentrants,wefindthatlatemobilizationplacedanunusualnumberatriskofpostwarphysicaldecline.Alloftheseinitialeffectshaveconsequencesforthelateryearsofhealthandretirement,andthusbegintosuggestvaluablereturnsfromourrecastingeffortsonhealth,late-lifecareers,andwartimeexperience.

Ouroriginaldecisiontodevelopnewcodesonwartimeexperienceledtoagreatlyenlargedsetofvariablesforanalysisthatextendswellbeyondcombat.Forthefirsttime,wehaveinformationonthelifeexperiencesmenbroughttotheSecondWorldWar,andcanshowthatmilitaryinfluencescontinuedforsomemenwellaftertheendofhostilities.Thebatteryofnewcodesenablesustoaddressouroriginalquestionswithmeasurementsthatwarrantconfidence.However,militaryserviceisonlypartofwarmobilization,andmostoftheTermanmenremainedatworkonthehomefront.Weturnnowtooureffortstodevelopoccupationalcodesforthesemen.

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Table5.3CodesforWorkExperienceinWarYears

1.JobtypeA.employerclassificationsectorofeconomy(private,government)B.industrialsectormanufacturing,finance,communication,etc.C.occupationofworkerD.supervision(Doesindividualmanagepeople?)E.timeproportionofdayworked,seasonalityofwork,etc.F.mobilizationwhethermobilizedornot

2.LifechangesA.jobchangeB.employerchange

3.DatesIncludesbeginningmonthandyearandendingmonthandyearforeachjobinmobilizationperiod

CodingHome-FrontMobilization

EffortstomeasurethemilitaryexperienceoftheTermanmenledtotherealizationthatwecouldalsoinvestigatehome-frontmobilizationandrelatedoccupationalexperience.Nearly500Termanmenremainedciviliansfortheentirewarperiod,andasubstantialnumberofthemenwhoenteredtheservicespenttimeinthecivilianworkforce.Occupationalhistoriesduringtheyearsofwarmobilization(seeFigure5.1)provedtobesufficientlydetailedtoletuschartcareersacrossthisperiodandclassifyeachjobintheoccupationalsequenceonmobilizationstatusandotherdefiningcharacteristics.

Initialreviewsoftheworkhistoriessuggestedthatwecouldidentifymendirectlyinvolvedinwar-relatedworkfromdescriptionsoftheirjobsandemployers,andthatwemightbeabletoestimatelifechangesduetomobilizationfromevidenceofchangeinworklife,suchasswitchesinjobs,occupations,andemploymentsector;andinworkcharacteristics,fromtotalhoursatworkperdayandweektosupervisoryresponsibilityandgeographicmobility.Keepinginmindourinterestin

responsibilityandgeographicmobility.Keepinginmindourinterestinlife-coursechangeandtheconceptualpossibilitiesofwork-historyinformation,wedecidedtodevelopmeasurementproceduresforsixattributesofajob(Table5.3).

Thedistinctionbetweenemploymentbyprivatebusinessandemploymentbygovernmentiscriticalintimeofwarmobilization.AbranchmanagerofalocalWarProductionBoardwouldbecoded

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"federalgovernment";amanagerforLockheedqualifiesas"privatebusiness."Theindustrialsectorcategoryenablesustoidentifyoccupationalchangesinvolvingachangeinindustry.Forguidelines,wereliedonthe1980U.S.Censusproceduresforcodingindustryandoccupation,athirdattribute.BecauseofthesimilarityoftheTermansurveystocensusforms,wefoundtheCensusBureau'ssystemcomprehensiveandmanageabletoapply.

Intimesoflaborshortage,opportunitiesforadvancementandmanagerialresponsibilityincrease,hencethecodeforsupervision.Wartimeproductiondemandstendtoleadtoincreasedworkhoursofemployees,soweincludedacodefortime.Thesixthjobattribute,warmobilization,isoneofthemostimportantforourpurposes,andweconstructedcodesfromgovernmentpolicymandatesthatdistinguishthreemaincategories:nonmobilized,directlymobilized,andindirectlymobilized.

Wedecidedthat,inadditiontothesejobattributes,thecodingoperationshoulddeterminewhetherjobandemployerchangeshadoccurredbydrawingonallavailableinformationfromthejobattributesaboveandrelateddata.Incontemporarysurveys,jobandemployerchangescouldbedeterminedquantitatively.However,archivaldatafromlong-pastsurveysareunevenacrosscodesandrespondentsinamountandqualityofdata.Thedatasituationcallsforcoders'verybestjudgmentonwhetherajoboremployerchangehasoccurred.Onlyprimaryjobswerecomparedtodeterminejobstabilityorchange.Coderswereinstructedtoaddthemonthandyearofentryandexiteachtimetheynotedachange.Thisinformationenablesustouseeventhistoryanalysesontheprocessofwarmobilization.

Thecodingformisdesignedtocapturealljobchangesforthewarperiod,whichwedefineasbetweenSeptember1940andDecember1947,aswellasapre-andpostmobilizationjoboneitherendofthis

interval.Forourpurposes,premobilizationreferstothelastjobheldbetweenJanuaryandJune1940,andpostmobilizationtothejobheldinJanuary1948.Weview1940employmentasabaselineforassessingwork-lifechangesacrossthewaryears.AnexampleisaTermanmanwhowasanassistantprofessorinaWestCoastuniversitybeforemobilization.Thecodesheetindicatesthathetaughtforeignrelationsfull-timeandsupervisednoone.Duringmobilization,hedidsocialscienceresearchforthefederalgovernmentinanationalsecurityagency,clearlyashiftfromindirectlymobilizedemploymenttoworkdirectlyconcernedwithfightingthewar.Bywar'send,hehadmovedtoahighadministrativeposition,fromwhichhetookajobasa

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high-leveladministratorwithaprivatephilanthropicfoundationajobhekeptinthepostmobilizationstage.

Thesametwocoderswhocodedmilitaryservicewerehiredforthehome-frontproject.TheywerewellacquaintedwiththeTermandataandhadsubstantialtraininginarchivalcodingprocedures.Thecodersandprojectmanagers(Workman,Cross)appliedthefirstdraftofthecodebooktomaterialsinthe1940,1945,and1950follow-upsmainlysurveyforms,letters,andclippings.Ratingswereassembledandcomparedsothatdisparitiescouldbediscussedinconference.Afterthreemoreroundsofapplicationandrevision,eachshowinghighlevelsofagreement,webeganfinalcoding.

Allnonveteranswerecodedfirst,becausetheyhadthemostcompleteworkhistoriesacrossthewaryears.Attheendofthispartoftheproject,wehadachievedsubstantialagreementacrossallbutonecoderesidentialchange.Warmobilizationiscoupledwithanunusualamountofresidentialchange,andwehopedtoobtainthenumbersandtypesofsuchchanges.Unfortunately,dataonresidenceprovedtobetoovaguetosupportreliablecodes.Twoprocedureswereusedtodeterminecoderagreement.First,wewantedtoknowtheextentofagreementbetweencodersonjobsforastudymemberwhethercodersweremakingadjustmentsaboutthesamejobornot.Thesecondappraisalfocusedonjobattributessuchassupervision,timeschedule,andmobilizationstatus.Usingpercentageagreement,weachievedanaverageagreementof94foralljobsandjobattributes;nonereceivedanaverageagreementoflessthan90.

AswefollowtheTermanmenacrossthewaryears,thepercentageinmilitaryuniformincreaseddramatically,especiallybetween1942and1943,andsoalsodidthepercentageofmenwhowereengagedincivilianactivitiesdeemedessentialtowarproductionanindicationofdirectmobilization(Figure5.3).Thoughlessthanafifthofthe

Termanmenwereinvolvedinsuchactivityduringthewar,thepercentagewasdoublewhatitwasin1941.Indirectlymobilizedmenhadlesspriorityforcontinuingtheiremployment,andasubstantialnumberwereinvolvedinthemilitaryandessentialworkforthewareffortbytheendof1945.

Youngermenweremorelikelythanoldermentobemobilizeddirectly,eitherinthemilitaryorinhome-frontwar-relatedactivities(Figure5.4).Militarydutyisayoungperson'sactivity,asdefinedbysociety,butnecessaryhome-frontworkonbehalfofthewareffortalsoseemedtofavoryoungermen.Thisselectionmayreflectthelifestageofyoungermenwhowereinthemarketforgreateropportunities;itmay

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Figure5.3.PercentageofMilitaryandHome-FrontMobilizationofTermanMen,1941-1945

alsoreflectfamilyandcareerbarrierstolife-coursechangeamongtheoldermen.Youngermenaremoreopentoresidentialchangeandhavelesstoloseingivinguponejobforanotherthatseemsmorepromising.Manpowerpressuresfromthetopmayalsohavefavoredtheselectionofhighlyeducatedyoungermen.Inanycase,anycalculationoflife-coursechangemusttakeintoaccountprewaremploymenthistoryandthespecificcharacteristicsofoccupations.Theseconsiderationswillinformouragendaasweinvestigatethedualeffectsofmilitaryandhome-frontmobilizationonmen'slives.

Conclusion

Thoughsocialscientistsgenerallyacknowledgetheprofoundroleofhistoricalinfluencesinshapinghumanlives,theyhavemuchdistancetotravelintranslatingthisknowledgeintopractice.Theearlylongitudinalstudieswereuninformedonwaysofrelatingachangingsocialworldtolifepatterns,andmorecontemporarystudieshavemadelittleprogressalongtheselines.Majorlongitudinalstudiesarestilldesignedwithoutattentiontothehistoricalrecord,andsomeresearchersstillseemtobelievethathistoryisonlyabackdroptotheir

studies.

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Figure5.4.PercentageofMilitaryandHome-Front

MobilizationofTermanMenbyCohort,1941-1945

Withtheseconsiderationsinmind,amostimportantsteptowardthelife-coursestudyofhistoricalinfluencesinvolvestheirincorporationinthestatementofaresearchquestion.Historicalquestionsdonotfocusresearchonhistoricaleffects.Moreover,theydonotleadtothecollectionofdataonhistoricaleffectsortotheselectionofdataarchiveswithpossibilitiesforhistoricalanalyses.Insettinguphisstudy,LewisTermandidnothavehistoricalorenvironmentaleffectsinmind,sohefailedtoaskasinglequestionabouttheGreatDepressionorWorldWarIIinlifeexperience.Historicallyrelevantdatawerecollectedovertheyearsinthisproject,butmainlyindividually,through

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lettersandnewsclippings.ByrecastingtheseandotherdataintheTermanfilestoproducecodesonhistoricalcircumstancesandexperience,weobtainedmeasuresofmilitaryandhome-frontmobilizationfortheTermanmen.

ThequalitativeandquantitativedataintheTermanfilesmadeourconstructionofnewcodespossible.Surveydatawithstructured,closed-endquestionsandnoopen-endedquestionsdonotprovidetheopportunityforsuchrecasting,andalargeproportionofcurrentlongitudinalstudiesfitthislimitedmodel.Theolderlongitudinalstudies,bycontrast,generallycollectedrichqualitativematerialsalongwiththequantitativedata,andproviderareopportunitiestostudylivesinarapidlychangingsociety.OurapproachtothereworkingoftheTermandatawasdevelopedfromsucheffortswiththeOaklandandBerkeleyGuidanceStudydata,andwehopeitwillhaveapplicationsinotherstudiesaswell.

Appendix:TheHenryA.MurrayResearchCenterofRadcliffeCollegeAsdescribedintheInventoryofLongitudinalStudiesintheSocialSciences(Youngetal.,1991),theHenryA.MurrayResearchCenterofRadcliffeCollege,aCenterfortheStudyofLives,wasestablishedin1976asanationalrepositoryfordatainthefieldsofpsychology,psychiatry,sociology,anthropology,economics,politicalscience,andeducation.Thecenterarchivesoriginalsubjectrecordspluscoded,machine-readabledata.Theoriginalrecordsoftenincludetranscriptsofthoroughinterviews,behavioralobservations,responsestoprojectivetests,andotherinformationusefulforsecondaryanalysis.Havingaccesstosuchancillarymaterialmakesitpossibleforresearcherstorestructurethesubjectrecordsandmitigatesthedegree

towhichtheyarelockedintothetheoreticalassumptionsunderwhichthedatawerecollected.InterestedpersonsmayrequestacopyoftheGuidetotheDataResources,whichprovidesinformationonnearly200datasets,andtheIndextotheGuide,whichlistsmethodsofdatacollectionandcontentareasofeach.ContactAnneColby,Ph.D.,Director,HenryA.MurrayResearchCenterofRadicliffeCollege,10GardenStreet,Cambridge,MA02138;(617)495-8140.

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