Workshop 3 – Territorial integration in cross-border and transnational functional regions

ITAN – Black Sea case study, first resultsPierre BECKOUCHE

ESPON Internal Seminar 2013

“Territorial Evidence for Cohesion Policy 2014-2020and Territorial Agenda 2020”

Q1 - The Black Sea region is largely analysed & monitored…

2

Regional governance• The Commission on the Protection of the Black Sea Against Pollution (1992)• The Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC, 1999, + Serbia & Montenegro since 2004)• UE Black Sea Strategy (2008):

stimulate democratic and economic reforms support stability and promote development facilitate practical projects in areas of common concern open up opportunities and challenges through coordinated action encourage the peaceful resolution of conflicts in the region.

Research projects, e.g.:

• ITAN: BS = Bulgaria, Georgia, Moldova, Romania, Russia, Turkey, Ukraine / SNUTS 2-3• Envirogrid (FP7, 2013): environmental project ; watershed definition of “Black Sea”

interactive geoportal & maps largely accessible to stakeholders: http://envirogrids.net

• EU Border Regions (FP7, 2013): development options at the external EU borders.

3

Q2 - … yet it faces heavy environmental stakes…

Envirogrid

•the Black Sea region as an environmental hot spot•Black Sea: some signs of recovery but eutrophication severe problem•Danube River Catchment: an ecologically unsustainable devt •A project focused on the water resource issue, throughout climate change scenarios

4

Q2 - … yet it faces heavy environmental stakes…

Envirogrid

•the Black Sea region as an environmental hot spot•Black Sea: some signs of recovery but eutrophication severe problem•Danube River Catchment: an ecologically unsustainable devt •A project focused on the water resource issue, throughout climate change scenariosAn expected increase of Water Stress Days whatever the scenario

5

Q2 - … yet it faces heavy environmental stakes…

Envirogrid

•the Black Sea region as an environmental hot spot•Black Sea: some signs of recovery but eutrophication severe problem•Danube River Catchment: an ecologically unsustainable devt •A project focused on the water resource issue, throughout climate change scenariosAn expected increase of Water Stress Days whatever the scenarioFewer Plant Growth Days to be feared…… especially in Turkey

6

EUBorderRegions

•A territory in between EU’s and Russian influence:

•Trade: Russia is the second trade partner of Turkey and the first of Ukraine

•FDI: the EU is the major player; Turkey is a regional player

Q2 - … economical competition EU v. Russia (& v. Turkey)

Trade FDI

7

ITAN (Igeat team) – The declining influence of Europe upon most Neighbours

e.g. privileged relations:•air connections•migration•trade•public aid cooperation

Q2 - … economical competition EU v. Russia (& v. Turkey)

Q2 - … and political competition (EU v. Russia)

8

• Romania and Bulgaria: UE members but not in Eurozone nor Schengen area

• Turkey: candidate country, potential regional power

• Russia: a “Strategic” – and competitive! – EU partner

• Moldova, Ukraine & Georgia: complex relations with Russia (Transnistria, Abkhazia, Crimea…)

• Case of Ukraine: by-passed by Russian gas to the EU; under pressure to join the Eurasian Custom Union before signing

the ENP Association

ITAN – The Black Sea is caught in the vice between UE and Russia

9

ITAN (EVS team) - Geography of BS non resident embassies

• In the BS region many countries are represented only by a “non-

resident embassy” (located out of the related country)

• The number non-resident embassies hosted in a country is related to its diplomatic influence

Q2 - … and political competition (EU v. Russia)

10

ITAN (EVS team) - Geography of BS non resident embassies

• Good news: more than 50% of the links are related to another Black Sea country

• BUT Ukraine, Georgia and Bulgaria highly dependent vis-à-vis Russia

• A small number of links with Turkey • Links outside of the BSC: namely

with EU members mostly Germany and Italy

Q2 - … and political competition (EU v. Russia)

11

ITAN (EVS team) –

“local diplomacy”: city twinning

• A large part with other Black Sea cities; seaports often twinned

• A same proportion of links with other Espon cities

• Other neighbourhoods and other parts of the world: more

important than in the case of diplomacy links.

Q2 - … and political competition (EU v. Russia)

12

Q2 - … and political competition (EU v. Russia)

ITAN (EVS team) –

“local diplomacy”: city twinning

• Cities on the Ukrainian and the Russian coasts are much related to the former Soviet area, especially Russia, Ukraine, Moldova or Belarus.

• Georgian cities and Istanbul are more related to cities outside the European region (USA for Georgian cities, Asia for Istanbul)

Confirms political fragmentation

13

Q3 – No regional integration in terms of level of devt

ITAN (CIST team) –

GDP per capita in 2010

• Overall very low level of development

• Huge disparity within the Black Sea region (1 to 10 ratio)

• The richer territories are not in the EU but in Turkey (Istanbul – Ankara corridor)

• Strong disparities within Ukraine (West v. East)

14

Q3 – No regional integration in terms of level of devt

ITAN (CIST team) –

GDP per capita, 2000- 2010

• Increasing disparities in the region as a whole

• UE: contrasted evolution Romanian v. Bulgarian (except Sofia) territories

• Turkey, Ukraine, Russia (+projects in Taman, Sotchi, Krasnodar kraï): increasing internal disparities

this region is NOT converging