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Workshop on PWS
Component of SWFDP
Macao, 15-19 April 2013Haleh Kootval
Chief, Public Weather Services [email protected]
Workshop Objectives
To help participants:
• Increase knowledge
• Develop / improve skills
For improved delivery of services to the users and in particular the public
Workshop Outline
Major topics related to delivery of PWS to Public and Key Partners:
• Warning Services• Coordination with Main Partners:
Disaster Management and Media • Media and Communication Skills• Public Education and Outreach• Service Evaluation
To achieve the Objectives of the Workshop New Skills are
needed as shown in the Workshop Programme.
Traditional Forecaster
• Trained in:– Science of meteorology– Observations (instruments, standards,
technology,…)– Forecast models and related technology,
including IT– Operational aspects of forecast production
• All conducted in the familiar environment of a forecast office
PWS Forecaster
• Requires skills and knowledge in delivery of services– Written communication– Communication skills– Public speaking– Presentation skills– Relationship and partnership building (e.g.,
media, DM)– User focus (dialogue,understanding needs),– Public education campaigns
• Often has to work outside forecast office
Challenges for PWS• Forecasting component easier for staff:
Familiar environment of forecast office Education and Training in Forecasting
• PWS component more difficult:Requires knowledge and skills not taught Engagement with users: environment often
not familiar or even hostileRequires understanding others’ points of view
and demands: often unfamiliar
Skills required for PWS Component of SWFDP
National PWS Focal Points
• To assist with the implementation of SWFDP• Bridge the gap between forecasting and
communicating with users• Provide linkages between NMHSs and the
WMO Secretariat• Assist the Secretariat with all the aspects of
the implementation of PWS programme and activities within their respective NMHS
• Secretariat Quarterly Reports to inform NFPs
FloodsService Delivery
The End Result of a SWFDP
• The end result of SWFDP is to improve warnings, forecasts and delivering services to:– Save lives– Protect properties– Help people make better decisions with the
help of science and technology
Serving the different communities of users!
PWS Component of SWFDP• Focus: Use the tools/skills/techniques of
improved forecasting • Address: How to apply those tools to
deliver PWS/warning services to identified user groups
• These two components together are indispensible to ensure SWFDP achieves its objectives
13
FloodsA Warning System
14
A Warning System• Goal WS: maximizing actions for safety• Requires coordination across many agencies• Components of a warning system:
1. Detection, monitoring and Warning Global, regional, national and local observations of
critical environmental parameters Numerical weather prediction Forecasts on different timescales (nowcasting to several
days)
2. Timely issuing and dissemination of authoritative warning information
3. Communication: complete only after information received and understood (vs Fire and Forget)
15
A Warning System4. Risk Analysis and impact assessment
Who and what is at risk and why? What will the impacts be?
5. Mitigation and response: Actions of recipients depend on: Content and clarity of the warning Credibility of issuing organization State of preparedness of receiving authorities (supported by
NMHSs warnings)
6. Scientific knowledge alone not sufficient NMHSs + Hazards Community (other government
organizations + local officials + emergency managers + media + voluntary and Humanitarian organizations + weather sensitive businesses….)
16
Essential Elements of a Warning System
• Operates continuously : even if infrequent hazards • Warnings must be timely: to allow decision making• Warning process must be transparent: to media and
public• Expert and trained staff of NMHSs• Warning system must be integrated into larger
socioeconomic, cultural and political system• Flexible: Able to expand to other hazards and
functions• Apolitical – exposes societal vulnerabilities• Community involvement and participation: ensure
meeting community needs
17
Role of the government: Legislation
• Governments should as part of effective warning systems and services develop legislation clearly assigning responsibilities and authorities of warning service providers
• With respect to hydrometeorological hazards, the WMO policy of “single official voice” should be covered by legislation.
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Successful Warning Service
A warning service is successful when recipients:
Receive the warning; Understand the information
presented; Believe the information; Personalize the information; Make correct decisions; and, Respond in an adequate manner, Feedback, lessons learnt.
19
Multi-Hazard Warning Systems
• Early warning systems are costly
• Many hazards are infrequent
• Many require similar observing, forecasting, communication and dissemination systems
• A multi-hazard warning system is appropriate where there is commonality in the hazards (e.g.,
hurricanes and typhoons, storm surges, tsunamis, heavy rains, floods)
or when hazards occur in a sequence (Extreme heat, poor air quality, health impacts)
20
Factors contributing to ineffectual warnings
• Plans can go wrong because of technical factors:
Forecast accuracy: miscalculating onset time, intensity or impacts
Lack of timeliness of warnings and updates Insufficient data “sole official authority” issue in preparing and
issuing warnings-advocated strongly by PWS/WMOContradictory information from different sourcesCommunication and/or dissemination inadequacies
21
Factors contributing to ineffectual warnings
• Plans can go wrong because of human factors:
Ineffective, haphazard and ad-hoc coordination with disaster management and the media
Lack of understanding of public’s response: making own assessment
Warning language and contentComplicated, vague, ambiguous, insufficient
advice and call to actionNMHSs staff inadequacyLack of a disaster preparedness plan: SOPLow credibility of NMHS
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FloodsDissemination & Communication
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Dissemination and CommunicationKey Components of WS
• Effective dissemination: Need to cover as large an audience as possible:Backups and redundanciesMust reach Hazards Community
• Media: indispensable partner in warning process;multiple channels: Traditional (TV, Radio, Sirens, Public Address systems,
Coloured Balls and Beacons, Flags)mobile and Social networking (SMS, Web, facebook, twitter)Networking (Ethnic and religious leaders in remote communities)
• Public education: to avoid reinterpretation
Thank you