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World Alternative Investment Summit Canada Niagara 2015 “We will never forget your money is an expression of your trust, and we promise to always uphold that trust” September 15, 2015 www.forgefirst.com

World Alternative Investment Summit Canada Niagara 2015€¦ · Summit Canada Niagara 2015 ... September 15, 2015 . 2 Andrew McCreath, CFA, President and CEO Andrew is Co-Founder

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Page 1: World Alternative Investment Summit Canada Niagara 2015€¦ · Summit Canada Niagara 2015 ... September 15, 2015 . 2 Andrew McCreath, CFA, President and CEO Andrew is Co-Founder

World Alternative Investment Summit Canada Niagara 2015

“We will never forget your money is an expression of your trust,

and we promise to always uphold that trust”

September 15, 2015

www.forgefirst.com

Page 2: World Alternative Investment Summit Canada Niagara 2015€¦ · Summit Canada Niagara 2015 ... September 15, 2015 . 2 Andrew McCreath, CFA, President and CEO Andrew is Co-Founder

2 2

Andrew McCreath, CFA, President and CEO

Andrew is Co-Founder of Forge First Asset Management Inc. His 25 years of investment industry experience includes more than 15 years of managing money during which time he was a founding shareholder of two successful money management organizations that were sold to larger organizations. After being a top-ranked sell-side securities analyst at leading investment banks for 7 years, Andrew moved to the money management side of the business. He was a founding shareholder of Synergy Mutual Funds which was sold to CI Financial in October 2003. Andrew started his first hedge fund business, Waterfall Investments Inc., in April 2004 which was sold to Sentry Investments in August 2008 at which time Andrew joined the Sentry team. During his three years at Sentry, Andrew managed the Sentry Diversified Total Return Fund, winner of 2010 Lipper Award, and the Sentry Market Neutral LP, winner of 2010 Morningstar Best Relative Value Hedge Fund (Gold in 2010). Once an entrepreneur and always an entrepreneur, Andrew left Sentry at the end of August 2011 to launch Forge First Asset Management. He is also a Market Commentator on BNN-TV, Canada’s only all-business television station (www.bnn.ca), and host of “Weekly with Andrew McCreath”.

Page 3: World Alternative Investment Summit Canada Niagara 2015€¦ · Summit Canada Niagara 2015 ... September 15, 2015 . 2 Andrew McCreath, CFA, President and CEO Andrew is Co-Founder

1. PHILOSOPHY

2. PEOPLE

3. PROCESS

4. PERFORMANCE

Forge First Guiding Principles

Manage long/short equity funds with a focus on preserving capital via portfolio construction and

generating performance through security selection.

Experienced and award-winning portfolio management team with a history of collaboration, has

decades of experience, and significant capital in the funds.

Typically invest in small- and mid-cap North American securities, in businesses we know and

understand. To preserve capital, we build portfolios with specific characteristics in mind:

No big percentage

weights in single stocks Take no large

sector bets

Hold no private

companies

Hold a large short

book

Broadly diversified

portfolios

*Downside capture measures the manager’s performance in a down market. A negative number means the manager has made money when the market has gone down.

August net return -3.06%Net Return - YTD 13.22%Net Return - Since Inception 118.20%Annualized Return (since inception) 28.79%Correlation (since inception) 41%Sharpe Ratio (since inception) 3.26Annualized Standard Deviation 8.52%Alpha 15%Beta Relative to Index 0.44Gross Exposure 130%Net Exposure 41%Upside Capture 128%Downside Capture* -56%

Inception date is Aug 2012

Data as at August 31, 2015

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Since inception, the

Forge First Long

Short LP has

generated positive

net returns in 69% of

the months in which

the TSX was down.

In these same

months, the fund

has outperformed

the TSX 85% of the

time!

Forge First Long Short LP (Class F Lead Series)

Page 4: World Alternative Investment Summit Canada Niagara 2015€¦ · Summit Canada Niagara 2015 ... September 15, 2015 . 2 Andrew McCreath, CFA, President and CEO Andrew is Co-Founder

4

Investment Process

Macro Investment Process

Assess global economic environment and identify themes

Inflation

Interest rates

Currencies

GDP

Commodities

Political issues

Country analysis

Monetary Policies

Demographics

Sector Investment Process

Analyse sector themes and identify opportunities based on the macro

investment process Examples: Long Non-residential construction, Short Agriculture

Equipment and Fertilizers, Long REITS, Short Banks

Stock Selection Process (Within a Given Theme)

Identify securities within sector and macro themes

US and Canada Universe of stocks

Screen for potential candidates poised to benefit from themes

Qualified Investments

Identify eligible investments for thematic trade

Fundamental Analysis

Identify stocks that can be included in the portfolios

LONG SHORT

Financial strength

Reasonable valuation

Strong growth prospects

Financial weakness

Poor valuation

Weak growth prospects

Trade a basket of 10-30 names/theme

with small weights in each name

Risk Assessment and

Portfolio Construction:

Beta target, Net Exposure levels, Correlation,

Standard deviation

Specific Characteristics in Mind:

Broad diversification, No private companies, Large

short book, No big position weights, No large sector

weights

Special Situations

Investments

Take Long/Short positions in

individual names – not part

of a thematic trade

Continuous Monitoring

Continuous

Monitoring

Continuous

Monitoring

Page 5: World Alternative Investment Summit Canada Niagara 2015€¦ · Summit Canada Niagara 2015 ... September 15, 2015 . 2 Andrew McCreath, CFA, President and CEO Andrew is Co-Founder

Note: Returns for the Long Short LP are based on the Aug 2012 CL F Lead Series and are net of all fees. In a year, up to 12 series can be created within a class of

units. Accordingly, no two series will have the same net return. Unitholders are advised to refer to their monthly statement for the net return of their respective series.

Summary of Net Returns – Forge First Long Short LP

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All returns are in local currencies

Page 6: World Alternative Investment Summit Canada Niagara 2015€¦ · Summit Canada Niagara 2015 ... September 15, 2015 . 2 Andrew McCreath, CFA, President and CEO Andrew is Co-Founder

Gross Profit Attribution (basis points) by Sector Since Inception

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Have made money in BOTH long books and short books on a since inception basis!

Gross profit attribution (basis points) by sector since inception

Page 7: World Alternative Investment Summit Canada Niagara 2015€¦ · Summit Canada Niagara 2015 ... September 15, 2015 . 2 Andrew McCreath, CFA, President and CEO Andrew is Co-Founder

Upside Capture Ratio = [Sum of Portfolio Returns during

up months / Sum of Benchmark return during up months]

Downside Capture Ratio = [Sum of Portfolio Returns

during down months / Sum of Benchmark returns during

down months]

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Generated positive net returns in 69% of negative months for the TSX

LSLP Upside Capture 128%

LSLP Downside Capture -56%

Forge First

Long Short

LP

Long book: % positive performance 78%

Short book: % positive performance 51%

% of winning months 81%

DATETSX Total

Return

Long Short LP

Class F (net return)

Long book

(gross return)

Short book

(gross return)

Multi Strategy LP

Class F (net return)

Long book

(gross return)

Short book

(gross return)

Aug-15 -4.04% -3.06% -6.25% 3.00% -2.66% -5.90% 3.11%

Sep-14 -3.99% -1.44% -5.33% 3.95% -0.73% -4.87% 4.28%

Jun-13 -3.76% 2.30% -0.06% 3.17% 3.02% 0.01% 3.84%

Jun-15 -2.78% 2.74% 1.73% 1.48% 2.02% 1.01% 1.38%

Apr-13 -2.07% 2.21% 0.11% 2.76% 2.49% 0.13% 2.76%

Oct-14 -2.07% -3.96% -4.97% 0.81% -2.87% -4.31% 1.34%

Mar-15 -1.88% 2.75% 0.48% 2.79% 2.26% 0.00% 2.72%

Nov-12 -1.28% 4.66% 2.30% 2.78% 5.19% 2.45% 3.13%

May-15 -1.22% 2.69% 2.21% 0.93% 2.35% 2.00% 0.76%

Dec-14 -0.44% 1.96% -0.20% 2.58% 1.58% -1.00% 2.92%

Jul-15 -0.31% -0.84% -1.54% 0.85% -0.60% -1.27% 0.82%

Mar-13 -0.20% 1.75% 2.53% -0.26% 1.67% 2.55% -0.44%

May-14 -0.16% 1.92% 1.91% 0.32% 1.08% 0.96% 0.32%

Nov-13 0.45% 2.53% 3.63% -0.63% 1.60% 2.33% -0.34%

Jan-15 0.55% 4.04% 4.27% 0.39% 3.18% 3.24% 0.46%

Jan-14 0.82% 1.43% 1.37% 0.39% 0.89% 0.84% 0.33%

Nov-14 1.06% 5.57% 4.71% 1.61% 4.18% 3.32% 1.45%

Oct-12 1.07% -0.24% 0.08% -0.55% -0.82% 1.05% -2.09%

Mar-14 1.23% 0.65% 1.16% -0.18% 0.17% 0.64% -0.25%

Feb-13 1.25% 2.49% 1.94% 1.31% 1.96% 1.44% 1.19%

Sep-13 1.40% 2.25% 4.25% -1.14% 1.87% 3.91% -1.28%

Jul-14 1.42% -0.67% -2.16% 1.63% -0.20% -1.82% 1.82%

Aug-13 1.55% 5.88% 5.46% 0.89% 4.82% 4.44% 1.02%

May-13 1.77% 2.69% 4.28% -1.49% 1.82% 3.22% -1.36%

Dec-12 1.95% 4.31% 5.84% -1.23% 4.13% 5.59% -1.19%

Dec-13 1.99% 3.11% 4.46% -1.05% 2.01% 3.25% -0.99%

Aug-14 2.09% 1.71% 3.86% -1.66% 0.94% 3.00% -1.71%

Jan-13 2.25% 5.08% 8.23% -2.73% 4.79% 8.01% -2.94%

Apr-14 2.42% 1.93% 2.71% -0.34% 1.40% 2.15% -0.48%

Apr-15 2.43% 1.01% 2.70% -1.40% 0.47% 1.91% -1.21%

Aug-12 2.65% -0.60% -1.08% 0.38% -0.16% -0.50% 0.27%

Jul-13 3.19% 8.38% 12.59% -3.51% 5.86% 10.37% -4.02%

Sep-12 3.43% 0.61% 3.07% -2.37% -0.66% 1.77% -2.38%

Feb-14 3.93% 3.51% 6.14% -2.04% 1.95% 4.47% -2.13%

Feb-15 3.98% 3.39% 6.41% -2.49% 2.41% 5.42% -2.59%

Jun-14 4.07% 1.88% 3.83% -1.58% 0.98% 3.24% -1.97%

Oct-13 4.72% 5.29% 7.68% -1.81% 2.93% 5.08% -1.86%

Forge First Long Short LP - Class F Forge First Multi Strategy LP - Class FSince inception (August 2012), Forge First Long

Short LP has generated positive net returns in

69% of the months in which the TSX was

down, and outperformed the TSX in 11 of

these 13 months. During this time, Forge First

Long Short LP made money in its short book

92% of the time!

Page 8: World Alternative Investment Summit Canada Niagara 2015€¦ · Summit Canada Niagara 2015 ... September 15, 2015 . 2 Andrew McCreath, CFA, President and CEO Andrew is Co-Founder

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Why Forge First?

Always runs with a big short book and has a proven track record of

generating positive alpha.

Commitment to transparency as to how we make money in a business

that’s over three years old and has ~$96 million in AUM.

Do not take a “big bet” approach to investing - broadly diversified

portfolios, no private companies, and no big portfolio weights in any

single sector or stock.

History of positive net returns in down markets (negative downside

capture ratio).

Solid track record of generating strong, risk-adjusted net returns.

Sharpe ratio 3.26, Negative downside capture -56%, net CAGR 28%.

Page 9: World Alternative Investment Summit Canada Niagara 2015€¦ · Summit Canada Niagara 2015 ... September 15, 2015 . 2 Andrew McCreath, CFA, President and CEO Andrew is Co-Founder

For more information, please contact Andrew McCreath

Office: (416) 687-6771

Mobile: (647) 546 6771

[email protected]

www.forgefirst.com

TWITTER@forgefirst

• This communication is for information purposes only and is not, and under no circumstances to be

construed as an invitation to make an investment in the Funds.

• Application for the Funds will be considered on the terms of the Confidential Offering Memorandum

for investors in jurisdictions of Canada that meet certain eligibility or minimum purchase requirements.

• There is no guarantee of performance, and past or projected performance is not indicative of future

results. Only investors who do no require immediate liquidity of their investment should consider a

potential investment in the Funds. The risks involved in this type of investment may be greater than

those normally associated with the other types of investments. Please refer to the Confidential

Offering Memorandum for a further discussion of the risks of investing in the Funds.

Contact Information

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