World Bank Documentdocuments.worldbank.org/curated/en/... · (NCORE) Project (P130694), along with a level-two restructuring. 2. The proposed AF2 will help finance the costs associated

Document of

The World Bank

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Report No: PAD2207

INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT

INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION

PROJECT PAPER

ON A

PROPOSED ADDITIONAL GRANT

FROM THE COOPERATION IN INTERNATIONAL WATERS IN AFRICA TRUST FUND

IN THE AMOUNT OF US$8.5 MILLION

TO THE

NILE BASIN INITIATIVE

FOR A SECOND ADDITIONAL FINANCING

FOR THE NILE COOPERATION FOR RESULTS PROJECT

April 26, 2017

Water Global Practice

Africa Region

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the

performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World

Bank authorization.

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FISCAL YEAR

July 1 – June 30

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

AF Additional Financing

AF1 First Additional Financing

AF2 Second Additional Financing

CFA Cooperative Framework Agreement

CIWA Cooperation in International Waters in Africa

CMU Country Management Unit

DRC Democratic Republic of Congo

DSS Decision Support System

EN Region Eastern Nile Region

ENTRO Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office

ESIA Environmental and Social Impacts Assessment

EU European Union

FY Fiscal Year

HEP Hydro Electric Potential

ICOLD International Commission on Large Dams

IDA International Development Association

MDTF Multi-Donor Trust Fund

MSIOA Multi-Sectoral Investment Opportunity Analysis

NBDF Nile Basin Development Forum

NBI Nile Basin Initiative

NBTF Nile Basin Trust Fund

NCORE Nile Cooperation for Results

NELCOM Nile Equatorial Lakes Council of Ministers

NELIP Nile Equatorial Lakes Investment Program

NEL Region Nile Equatorial Lakes Region

NELSAP-CU Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program Coordination Unit

NGO Non-Governmental Organization

Nile-COM Council of Ministers of Water Affairs in the Nile Basin Countries

Nile-SEC Nile Basin Initiative Secretariat

PAD Project Appraisal Document

PDO Project Development Objectives

PPIAF Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility

TAC Technical Advisory Committee

iii

Regional Vice President: Makhtar Diop

Country Director: Ahmadou Moustapha Ndiaye

Senior Global Practice Director:

Practice Manager/Manager:

Guang Zhe Chen

Jonathan Kamkwalala

Task Team Leader: Eileen Burke

iv

NILE BASIN INITIATIVE

SECOND ADDITIONAL FINANCING FOR THE

NILE COOPERATION FOR RESULTS PROJECT

CONTENTS

Project Paper Data Sheet v

Project Paper

I. Introduction 1

II. Background and Rationale for Additional Financing 1

III. Proposed Changes 9

IV. Appraisal Summary 13

19

V. World Bank Grievance Redress

Annexes

1. Results Framework 20

2. Detailed Description of Modified or New Project Activities 30

3. Detailed Project Costs 33

4. Implementation Arrangements 34

v

ADDITIONAL FINANCING DATA SHEET

Eastern Africa

Nile Cooperation for Results Project (NCORE) - Additional Financing 2 ( P162304 )

AFRICA

GWA01

Basic Information – Parent

Parent Project ID: P130694 Original EA Category: A – Full Assessment

Current Closing Date: 30-Apr-2017

Basic Information – Additional Financing (AF)

Project ID: P162304 Additional Financing

Type (from AUS): Restructuring, Scale Up

Regional Vice President: Makhtar Diop Proposed EA Category: A – Full Assessment

Country Director: Ahmadou Moustapha

Ndiaye

Expected Effectiveness

Date: 30-Apr-2017

Senior Global Practice

Director: Guang Zhe Chen Expected Closing Date: 30-Nov-2020

Practice

Manager/Manager: Jonathan S. Kamkwalala Report No: PAD2207

Team Leader(s): Eileen Rose Burke

PHApp

AuthTbl Approval Authority

Approval Authority

RVP Decision

Please explain

As this Additional Financing is to be financed by trust funds, the decision authority is with RVP.

Borrower

Organization Name Contact Title Telephone Email

Nile Basin Initiative

Secretariat Innocent Ntabana

Executive

Director

(256) 414-321-

424/321329 [email protected]

Project Financing Data - Parent

(AFCC2/RI-Nile Cooperation for Results Project-P130694) (in USD Million)

Key Dates

Project Ln/Cr/TF Status Approval

Date Signing Date

Effectiveness

Date

Original

Closing Date

Revised Closing

Date

P130694 TF-13766 Closed 26-Dec-2012 26-Dec-2012 11-Feb-2013 31-Dec-2014 31-Dec-2014

vi

P130694 TF-13767 Effective 26-Dec-2012 26-Dec-2012 11-Feb-2013 31-Dec-2015 30-Apr-2017

Disbursements

Project Ln/Cr/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbu

rsed % Disbursed

P130694 TF-13766 Closed USD 18.80 16.47 2.33 16.47 0.00 100.00

P130694 TF-13767 Effective USD 14.50 14.50 0.00 14.45 0.05 99.63

Project Financing Data - Nile Cooperation for Results Project (NCORE) - Additional Financing 2

(P162304) (in USD Million)

[ ] Loan [X] Grant [ ] IDA Grant

[ ] Credit [ ] Guarantee [ ] Other

Total Project Cost: 8.50 Total Bank Financing: 8.50

Financing Gap: 0.00

Financing Source – Additional Financing (AF) Amount

Cooperation in International Waters in Africa 8.50

Total 8.50

Policy Waivers

Does the project depart from the CAS in content or in other significant

respects? No

Does the project require any policy waiver(s)? Yes

Explanation

Procurement: The project has received an exception from the requirement to implement the new procurement

framework, pursuant to paragraph 3, Section VI of the World Bank Directive “Procurement in IPF and Other

Operational Procurement Matters” and pursuant to the instructions set out in Section III - Scope, - I. Procurement

During IPF Preparation - C. Additional Financing of the World Bank Procedure “Procurement in IPF and Other

Operational Procurement Matters.”

Operational Policy 7.50. While OP 7.50 is triggered by the project, the project is exempt from the notification

requirement, as studies proposed under the project are upstream in nature and do not involve studies beyond

feasibility studies. However, such studies must include “in the terms of reference for the activities an

examination of any potential riparian issues".

Has the waiver(s) been endorsed or approved by Bank Management? Yes

Explanation

Procurement. The waiver was received on January 30, 2017 from the Acting Chief Procurement Officer of

OPCS.

Operational Policy 7.50. The waiver of the notification requirement was endorsed by the Regional Vice

President in 2012, in advance of the original project approval.

vii

Bank Staff

Name Role Title Unit

Eileen Rose Burke Team Leader (ADM

Responsible)

Sr. Water Resources Mgmt. Spec. GWA02

Dawit Tadesse

Mekonnen

Program Assistant Program Assistant GWA01

Antoinette Kamanzi Procurement Specialist Procurement Assistant AFMRW

Ayalew Kebede Belew Procurement Specialist Senior Procurement Specialist GGO01

Mulugeta Dinka Procurement Specialist Senior Procurement Specialist GGO01

Abiy Demissie Belay Financial Management

Specialist

Sr. Financial Management

Specialist

GGO25

Anjali Lohani Basnet Team Member Consultant GWA01

Boyenge Isasi Dieng Safeguards Specialist Senior Social Development

Specialist

GSU07

Christiaan Johannes

Nieuwoudt

Team Member Finance Officer WFALA

Edwin Nyamasege

Moguche

Team Member Consultant GGO25

Enagnon Ernest Eric

Adda

Team Member Sr. Financial Management

Specialist

GGO31

Grace Nakuya Musoke

Munanura

Team Member Senior Procurement Specialist GGO01

Habab Taifour Team Member Sr. Water Resources Mgmt. Spec. GWA04

Hocine Chalal Safeguards Specialist Lead Environmental Specialist GEN07

K. Anna Kim Team Member Operations Analyst GWA08

Nagaraja Rao

Harshadeep

Team Member Lead Environment Specialist GENDR

Nathalie S. Munzberg Safeguards Advisor Regional Safeguards Adviser OPSPF

Nightingale Rukuba-

Ngaiza

Counsel Senior Counsel LEGAM

Locations

Country Location Planned Actual Comments

Rwanda Republic of Rwanda N/A N/A Given the technical

assistance nature of the

project, there are no

planned physical works in

any specific locations.

Tanzania United Republic of Tanzania N/A N/A

Kenya Republic of Kenya N/A N/A

Democratic Republic of the Congo N/A N/A

Uganda Republic of Uganda N/A N/A

viii

Ethiopia Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia N/A N/A

Egypt, Arab

Republic of

Arab Republic of Egypt N/A N/A

Sudan Republic of the Sudan N/A N/A

Burundi Republic of Burundi N/A N/A

South Sudan South Sudan N/A N/A

Institutional Data

Parent ( AFCC2/RI-Nile Cooperation for Results Project-P130694 )

Practice Area (Lead)

Water

Contributing Practice Areas

Additional Financing Nile Cooperation for Results Project (NCORE) - Additional Financing 2 (P162304 )

Practice Area (Lead)

Water

Contributing Practice Areas

Agriculture, Energy & Extractives, Environment & Natural Resources

1

I. Introduction

1. This Project Paper seeks the approval of the Regional Vice President to provide a second

additional financing (AF2) in the amount of US$8.5 million from the Cooperation in International

Waters in Africa (CIWA) trust fund to the Nile Basin Initiative for the Nile Cooperation for Results

(NCORE) Project (P130694), along with a level-two restructuring.

2. The proposed AF2 will help finance the costs associated with scaling up the results and

deepening development effectiveness of the parent project by supporting new activities that build on

achieved results. The AF2 will focus on enabling Member States to work with the Nile Basin Initiative

(NBI) to build capacity to mainstream regional planning and coordination services provided by the NBI

Centers into their national and local planning and development processes. The AF2 will also better

enable the NBI to fulfil its new mandates, including of monitoring water availability and rainfall. By

supporting the strengthening of regional to national linkages and by increasing the scope of NBI’s

technical work, the AF2 reinforces the sustainability of results achieved under NCORE and enables

Member States to better benefit from the technical capacity of the NBI.

3. The Project Paper also seeks the approval of the extension of the closing date of the project from

April 30, 2017 to November 30, 20201, and a revision of the results framework to reflect additional

achievements enabled by the AF2, through new indicators and increased milestones of existing

indicators. The restructuring will include scaling back of two intermediate results indicator targets to

reflect more realism in expected achievements.

4. The NCORE Project is well-performing and has been rated as Satisfactory for Progress towards

the Development Objective and Implementation Progress since June 2016. The project has never been

rated below Moderately Satisfactory for these parameters. The project has already exceeded most of its

results targets for 2017.

5. As a result of the AF2 activities, it is expected that the Nile countries will have an improved

approach to cooperative water resources management and development, informed by analysis of real-

time data and analysis; increased access to NBI’s data, knowledge, and tools through an integrated web

portal; coordinated investment prioritization and planning through the Nile Equatorial Lakes Investment

Plan; enhanced cross-sectoral coordination at national and regional levels; expanded flood forecasting

services; improved dam safety; and increased long-term professional capacity for cooperative water

resources management and development across countries.

II. Background and Rationale for Additional Financing in the Amount of US$8.5 Million

1 While the extension of the project closing date will allow the NBI to undertake activities to support additional results, the

extension will also allow the NBI more time to complete an on-going Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA)

that has to be rebid, due to contractor non-performance, and to allow for more consultation before the finalization of other on-

going project studies.

2

COUNTRY CONTEXT

6. The Nile River Basin is a vital natural resource and economic lifeline for its 237 million

inhabitants, in eleven riparian countries (Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Egypt,

Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda). The basin is

characterized by a largely untapped potential for development, but with varied levels of poverty and

uneven rates of economic growth. Seven of the Nile riparian countries are amongst the world’s thirty

poorest. All economies are highly dependent on usage of natural resources, including for agriculture,

energy, and tourism. An estimated 75 percent of the population of Nile basin countries lives in rural

areas, where food security and livelihoods are highly vulnerable to the vagaries of nature, through their

rainfall dependence and exposure to floods and droughts. Low levels of infrastructure, institutional gaps,

and weak information systems limit the ability of the countries to respond to these challenges. The

impacts on people and economies in the region are devastating, especially on the poorest members of the

population.

7. Each Nile riparian country has ambitious national development plans for poverty alleviation that

encompass development of the river’s resources. These include enhanced energy availability, food

production, transportation, industrial development, domestic water supplies for rapidly increasing

populations, and environmental conservation. If unilateral plans are implemented without consideration

of the larger river basin context, there is a risk that some of the national investments in water-related

sectors could be sub-optimal, harm neighboring states, or foreclose future development opportunities.

Conversely, coordinated development and management of joint infrastructure could increase the returns

on investment in the basin.

8. In addition to realizing joint benefits, cooperation among countries is needed to manage shared

risks, particularly under a changing climate. Observed trends and climate models indicate an increase in

the basin’s natural variability, translating to longer and hotter dry periods, more intense episodes of rain,

and more severe droughts and floods. To build climate resilience in the Nile Basin, countries require

significant additional infrastructure, cooperative operation of existing and future infrastructure,

improved regional hydro-meteorological and early warning systems, and strengthened capacity to adapt

to extreme climatic events.

SECTORAL AND INSTITUTIONAL CONTEXT

9. Recognizing the need for a coordinated approach to basin-wide planning and development,

riparian countries formed the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) in 1999, an intergovernmental entity committed

to fostering cooperation, water resources management and water resources development. Over the next

fifteen years, supported by the US$200 million Nile Basin Trust Fund (NBTF) with contributions from

international donors and managed by the World Bank, and complemented by additional, in-parallel

support by other bilateral and multilateral partners, the NBI focused on bringing the Nile countries

together to build trust, capacity, and an enabling environment for investments, while concurrently

working with the countries to identify, prepare, and support the implementation of nationally-led

cooperative investment projects for mutual benefit. As a result, the NBI has grown to an established

regional institution, providing the only Nile basin-wide platform for regional dialogue in transboundary

water issues. Significantly, participating Nile countries have established the norm of jointly evaluating

3

and approving preparation of projects of transboundary significance identified by the NBI. The NBI has

identified, prepared or facilitated approximately US$1.5 billion of investments under implementation,

with an additional US$4.5 billion under preparation. This process is supported by the technical

foundation for water resources management and development created by the NBI, including a shared

knowledge base and tools to enable countries to understand the implications of their actions, and

opportunities for managing risks and realizing joint opportunities.

10. In 2013, with support from the NCORE project, the NBI pivoted its focus from institutional

strengthening towards consolidation and delivery – compiling previous work and applying newly-built

capacity to enable stronger service delivery. The proposed NCORE AF2 seeks to scale-up the

consolidation and delivery process by addressing gaps identified during NCORE implementation and

taking advantage of critical openings for furthering cooperative action in the basin that have arisen as a

result of NCORE-supported achievements.

11. It should be noted that this progress in regional cooperation continues despite complicated

hydro-politics outside of this project, including issues related to disagreements over the text of the

Cooperative Framework Agreement (a proposed international legal agreement that outlines principles,

rights and obligations for cooperative management and development of the Nile Basin water resources)

and unilateral development of multipurpose investment projects. Egypt’s participation in the NBI has

been frozen since 2010 because of some of these issues. These developments have intensified the need

for NBI to strengthen its strategic and technical role in order to demonstrate benefits of regional

cooperation, and to provide customized services to the diverse stakeholders of the institution, so that

regionally beneficial water resources management and development work can continue.

BACKGROUND AND ASSESSMENT OF PARENT PROJECT

12. The original NCORE Project was a US$15.3 million, three-year project, funded through the Nile

Basin Trust Fund (NBTF) (US$13.8 million) and Cooperation in International Waters in Africa (CIWA)

Multi-Donor Trust Fund (US$1.5 million) approved on December 26, 2012. A First Additional

Financing (AF1) (P147218) of US$18.0 million to NCORE funded through the NBTF (US$5.0 million)

and CIWA (US$13.0 million) was approved on June 27, 2014, bringing the project size to US$33.3

million and extending the project until April 30, 2017.

13. The project development objective (PDO) of the original and the current NCORE Project is “to

facilitate cooperative water resource management and development in the Nile Basin.” This is being

achieved through the provision of targeted technical assistance to the NBI member countries and broader

stakeholders, to facilitate cooperative activities and arrangements, improve integrated water resources

planning and management, and identify and prepare studies of potential investments of regional

significance. The activities are organized into three project components, each of which is implemented

by one of three NBI Centers: Component 1 by Nile Basin Initiative Secretariat (Nile-SEC); Component

2 by Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program Coordination Unit (NELSAP-CU); and

Component 3 by Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office (ENTRO)2.

2 For more information about the institutional structure of the Nile Basin Initiative, please see at www.nilebasin.org; or the

Project Appraisal document for the Parent Project: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/306271468193493154/Africa-

Nile-Cooperation-for-Results-Project

4

14. Since its effectiveness and through the AF, the project has been well-performing. It has been

rated as Satisfactory for Progress towards the Development Objective and Implementation Progress

since June 2016, and was rated Moderately Satisfactory before that time. Grant covenants including

audit and financial management requirements have been fully complied with to-date. As of April 2017,

99.83 percent of project funds had been disbursed and the PDO indicators are on track to being met or

have been exceeded. The project continues to support the NBI to take leadership in creating new

regional partnerships as well as enabling joint and coordinated actions that have increasingly brought

riparian countries along a long-term trajectory of cooperatively managing and developing the Nile water

resources. Component descriptions and notable achievements under this project (in alignment with

wider-development partner support) are described below.

15. Component 1: Advancing Nile Basin-Wide Cooperation and Analysis (Nile-SEC). Original

US$5.3 million, AF1 US$2.913 million. This component is supporting the Nile-SEC in its two core

functions of facilitating cooperation and water resources management, with two sub-components: (i)

strengthening the platform for basin-wide cooperation for sustainable water resource management and

development; and (ii) enhancing capacity and understanding for cooperative management and

development of water resources in the Nile Basin. The activities financed by AF1 expanded results

related to both sub-components and built on the new developments in the region by: (i) enhancing access

to NBI tools, knowledge, data and communications; (ii) strengthening stakeholder engagement; (iii)

strengthening delivery of cross-center results; and (iv) providing targeted support to South Sudan.

16. Notable achievements include:

A Basin-wide hydromet network design has been completed and approved by countries.

The NBI was able to forge agreement between countries to establish a regional hydromet

network, and helped the countries design the network. The European Union (EU) is in the

process of approving financing for a subset of the regional hydromet stations and other

stations are being prioritized within national budgets.

The Nile Basin Decision Support System (DSS) has been expanded to include two new

modeling tools related to climate change and tradeoff analysis. The DSS is increasingly

being applied at the national level, including in developing the Lake Tana Integrated Water

Resources Plan in Ethiopia, designing measures for flood control in the Sebeya River in

Rwanda, exploring water management scenarios in the Nyando catchment in Kenya, and

issuing water permits in Rwanda.

An official baseline of water use across the Nile Basin has been established after

endorsement by Council of Ministers of Water Affairs in the Nile Basin Countries (Nile-

COM). Agreement on a basin-wide water use baseline is a substantial step forward in

technical cooperation, as no official figures of this type have been agreed in the past.

Platforms for dialogue to promote Nile cooperation have been provided in partnership

with civil society organizations. These include the annual Nile Day celebrations and the

biennial Nile Basin Development Forum, highlighting the needs and opportunities for

cooperation.

17. Component 2: Promotion of Sustainable Development and Planning in the Nile Equatorial

Lakes Region (NELSAP-CU). Original US$5.2 million, AF1 US$12.544 million. This component is

supporting NELSAP-CU in its efforts to identify and prepare strategic cooperative investments in the

5

Nile Equatorial Lakes (NEL) region. The original component included two sub-components: (i)

identifying and promoting strategic opportunities to advance cooperative water resources management

and development; and (ii) preparing transformative investment projects of regional significance. The

AF1 funded activities that further built on these achievements by: (i) enhancing access to NELSAP-CU

tools, knowledge, data, communications and dissemination; (ii) preparation of additional investments

with regional benefits; and (iii) technical capacity building to water sector planning for South Sudan.

6


NELSAP-CU facilitated agreement between the countries to proceed with preparation

of 37 new regionally-significant investment projects, emphasizing their technical

robustness, and environmental and social suitability. Several of these projects are under

consideration for financing by a range of donors, including the World Bank, the African

Development Bank, the Government of Korea, and others.

NELSAP-CU is preparing four multipurpose investment projects of regional

significance– through feasibility studies and ESIAs of the Kabuyanda Irrigation and

Watershed Management Project in Uganda, the Mara Valley and Ngono Irrigation and

Watershed Management Projects in Tanzania, and the Sio-Songo Irrigation Project in Kenya.

These projects target underserved areas with vulnerable populations characterized by high

poverty levels. The relevant characteristics of these potential investments are summarized in

the table on the following page.

NELSAP-CU is screening its investment pipeline for possible candidates for private

investment, with support from the World Bank’s Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory

Facility (PPIAF).

19. Component 3: Promotion of Sustainable Development and Planning in the Eastern Nile

Region (ENTRO). Original US$4.5 million, AF1 US$2.543 million. This component is supporting

ENTRO in promoting cooperation among Eastern Nile riparian countries in a challenging hydro-

political environment. The original component comprised two sub-components: (i) strengthening the

knowledge base and analytical framework for Eastern Nile water resources planning and management;

and (ii) promoting sustainable development and growth in the Eastern Nile. The AF1 funded additional

results through: (i) expansion of on-going analysis; (ii) enhancement, development and dissemination of

knowledge products; (iii) strengthening and maintaining Eastern Nile partnerships; and (iv) supporting

sustainable development: dam safety and watershed management.


Regional and national dam safety units have been established in the Eastern Nile

following ministerial adoption of regional dam safety guidelines. ENTRO’s dam safety

program was recognized by the International Commission on Large Dams (ICOLD) as a new

area of global interest, and ICOLD is now preparing a working paper on ENTRO’s

experience.

Ethiopia and Sudan have adopted four watershed management projects prepared by

ENTRO, and resource mobilization is underway.

Flood early warning activities have been improved and scaled-up in the Eastern Nile. Approximately 350,000 people across the region receive early warning messages during

flood season and daily alerts in flood prone areas, while 1.7 million more people across the

region benefit indirectly from these alerts and messages, and are better able to reduce their

risk of flood devastation.

7

Table 1. Estimated Characteristics of potential multipurpose investment projects being studied under the

NCORE Project

Project Country Potential Benefits Details of Potential Projects

Mara Sub-Basin

Mara Valley

Irrigation

Development

and Watershed

Management

Project

Tanzania Irrigation: 8,340 ha

Storage: 16 MCM

Hydro-Electric Potential

(HEP): 2.8 MW

• Increases irrigated agriculture by 8,340 ha in Serengeti and

Butiyama Districts, with additional provision for

development in Tarime District; contributes to 12 percent of

the planned area for development of regionally significant

irrigation potential (estimated at 66,000 ha) by the Multi-

Sectoral Investment Opportunity Analysis (MSIOA) study

• More water efficient and climate and disaster resilient food

production system

• Seasonal storage, provision of water for livestock and

aquaculture, potential for closely linked rural water supply

scheme, assurance of e-flows for downstream wetlands

• Rural electrification through electricity generation of an

estimated 2.8MW firm power

Kagera Sub-Basin

Ngono Valley

Multipurpose

Water

Resources

Development

Project

Tanzania Irrigation: 6,720 ha

HEP: 1.6 MW

Storage: 251 MCM

• Provides irrigation and drainage for 6,720 ha, while

providing large scale drainage to an additional 1,964 ha,

benefiting small scale and large scale commercial farmers in

Bukoba Rural, Muleba, and Missenyi Districts


production system

• Water storage and flow regulation, drainage and flood control

infrastructure, as well as conservation of watersheds

• Installed capacity of 1.6MW for an estimated annual energy

production of 5.9 GWh for rural electrification

Kabuyanda

Irrigation and

Watershed

Management

project

Uganda Irrigation: 3,663 ha

HEP: 0.1 MW

Storage: 7 MCM

• Irrigation expansion of over 3,663 ha, benefiting sub counties

of Kabuyanda and Kikagate


production system

• Small HEP generation and water supply infrastructure, as

well as conservation of watersheds

• Contributes to Uganda’s Vision 2040 which includes

improvement in modernized and commercial agriculture

Sio-Malaba-Malakisi sub-basin

Sio-Sango

Irrigation

Development

and Watershed

Management

and

Kenya Irrigation: 1,700 ha

HEP: 350 kW

Storage: 4.9 MCM

• Provides irrigation for 1,700 ha in the Bungoma and

Kakamega vicinities of the Sio River Valley


production system

• Municipal water supply, livestock and fisheries production

• Enhanced household incomes and livelihoods, flood control,

environmental protection, boosted agricultural production

• Ancillary hydropower generation from combined irrigation

releases and surplus flows

• Contributes to Kenya’s Vision 2030, which prioritizes water

storage for increased agricultural production and power

generation, and also modernizing and commercializing

agriculture

8

21. With the success of the NBI, demand for just-in-time NBI services has increased, as countries

accelerate the rate of their infrastructure development and are recognizing the need to consider climate

change in their plans and designs. At multiple platforms for regional dialogue convened by the NBI

Centers – such as the NEL-COM meetings to prioritize and approve investments of regional significance

identified by NELSAP-CU, consultations around the EN Multi-Sectoral Investment Opportunity

Analysis (MSIOA) conducted by ENTRO, and meetings to shape NBI strategic direction led by Nile-

SEC – countries have requested support for capacity building, as well as preparation of investments.

22. The NCORE project and other World Bank support have been undertaken in close coordination

with other development partner support to the region. The NBI hosts annual meetings for its donors to

jointly assess progress, and the World Bank has also organized annual donor meetings for the

development partners that contribute to the CIWA trust fund (including Denmark, European Union,

Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom), and other active donors (including

Germany/GIZ and the United States) to ensure alignment of support. The coordinated approach to

donor assistance in the Nile allows the countries to reduce transaction costs and achieve greater returns

through coordinated programming.

RATIONALE FOR ADDITIONAL FINANCING

23. The AF2 seeks to deepen development effectiveness of the project by supporting additional

activities that will scale up results and build on achievements of the current project. Agreements among

NBI Member States reached under the current NCORE project have provided openings for further

advancing cooperative action. Member States have identified next steps to address their water resources

management and development challenges, including in the context of the water-related Sustainable

Development Goals. Requests for additional support have been received from Member States through

their Council of Ministers, as well as the NBI.

24. Recognizing that capacity gaps at the national level can limit the extent of benefits that countries

harness through NBI services, Member States have also sought additional support for working with the

NBI to build capacity to mainstream regional planning and coordination services provided by the NBI

Centers into their national and local planning and development processes. Strengthening regional-

national linkages are critical for reinforcing the sustainability of results achieved under NCORE and

enabling Member States to better benefit from the technical capacity of the NBI.

25. Since NCORE funds are fully allocated and most activities are expected to be completed by the

project’s current closing date of April 2017, and considering that additional support that countries have

requested will directly build on the current project and contribute to the NCORE PDO, an additional

financing is the most effective way to provide support. An AF2 would build on the cooperative

momentum built by the countries, while also minimizing procedural requirements and associated

transaction costs required if this support were to be provided under a new operation. Given that

countries’ plans for cooperative engagement are greater than funding available, the AF2 will focus

support to those areas where there is the greatest strategic need and that have seen the most progress in

each of the NBI’s three Centers.

26. The NCORE project and the AF2 are aligned with World Bank strategies for the region. The

NCORE project supports several of the pillars in the Africa Regional Integration Strategy, including

9

Regional Infrastructure, Coordinated Interventions to Provide Regional Public Goods, and Regional

Planning. The project is also aligned with the Africa Climate Business Plan. In addition, the NCORE

project coordinates and supports several-national level World Bank projects in water resources,

including projects in Ethiopia, Kenya, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda.

27. The Additional Financing is incorporating several lessons learned from earlier NBI work. The

decision to support existing national-level inter-sectoral committees follows from the recognition that

NBI information and analysis could be better mainstreamed into country level decision making. In

addition, recognizing that the needs of the countries are quickly evolving, some of AF2 will support just-

in-time analysis and training, so that the NBI can help countries address issues that emerge after project

approval but that fit within the scope of the project.

28. To ensure sustainability of outcomes of the NCORE project, the AF2 will place increased

emphasis on strengthening the NBI’s financial sustainability, as well as building capacity of Member

States to continue to work with the NBI after the project has ended. Over the course of the NCORE

project, the World Bank and its CIWA Multi-Donor Trust Fund (MDTF) donors have increased pressure

on the Member States to increase their ownership of the NBI through funding the core institutional costs

of the NBI. Beginning in July 2017, Member States are expected to cover the core institutional costs of

the NBI through their country contributions and other fees. Where this occurs, it will enable the World

Bank and its development partners to fund projectized-results (associated with the NCORE project, and

any future possible projects) without needing to support the core NBI institution itself. The project team

will continue to monitor compliance with previous country commitments to fund NBI core costs through

supervision missions.

III. Proposed Changes

29. The proposed AF2 and level-two restructuring will enhance the achievement of its development

objectives by extending the scope of its three components and associated result indicators. No changes

are proposed for the PDO, as all proposed activities will work to support the current PDO. It remains

“to facilitate cooperative water resource management and development in the Nile Basin.” In addition,

the proposed restructuring will extend the closing date of the project; make minor updates to the

procurement arrangements, and update the risk assessment for the project.

30. The proposed new activities are as follows (and as further detailed in Annex 2):

31. Component 1: Advancing Nile Basin-Wide Cooperation and Analysis (Nile-SEC). The AF2

will allow the Nile countries to work within their expanded mandate, to apply tools developed under the

NCORE project to help countries better understand the opportunities to overcome key hydro-related

challenges in the basin, through studies, consultations and other activities. This will advance

development of an NBI seasonal forecasting system, and enable dialogue with major water stakeholders

to discuss the implications of these forecasts. In addition, the Secretariat will increase its provision of

real-time data and analysis, including real time hydromet and evapotranspiration reports to be used by a

wide range of stakeholders. It will also include funding to create greater accessibility to NBI

information and analysis, through an integrated web portal that provides access to the resources of the

three NBI centers. The AF2 will also support a process to review and strengthen NBI’s financing

strategy, to work towards more sustainable financing mechanisms. Finally, the AF2 will support

10

activities and forums to discuss and debate Nile issues, informed by NBI tools and analysis, including

the Nile Basin Development Forum. The AF2 will focus on increasing involvement of high-level

stakeholders in Nile activities, including Permanent Secretaries (or their equivalents), to inform decision

making on Nile issues and to increase NBI financial sustainability.

32. Component 2: Promotion of Sustainable Development and Planning in the Nile Equatorial

Lakes Region (NELSAP-CU). Additional activities under this component will build on MSIOA and

other modelling and multipurpose project preparation advanced by NELSAP under NCORE. The

component will include support for NELSAP-CU to (i) work with the countries to prioritize a new Nile

Equatorial Lakes Investment Program (NELIP) that strengthens regional inter-sectoral coordination with

national sector-wide planning; (ii) build capacity within NELSAP-CU and its countries for strategic

communications and resource mobilization of prepared projects; and (iii) provide long-term targeted

technical capacity building to countries to help them assess their critical water resource challenges, and

to support engagement with inter-ministerial mechanisms at the national level on these issues. Within

this work, NELSAP-CU is expected to help the countries explore the possibility of a new regional

investment program funded by IDA.

33. Component 3: Promotion of Sustainable Development and Planning in the Eastern Nile

Region (ENTRO). Additional activities under this component will build on the momentum generated

by ENTRO’s successful flood forecasting, regional dam safety, and MSIOA process. The component

will include support for ENTRO to (i) continue and expand issuance of seasonal and daily flood

forecasts to governments, communities, NGOs, including potentially to South Sudan; (ii) build technical

capacity in new national dam safety offices, including through strengthening the working partnership of

a regional network of dam operators; (iii) provide increased real-time and technical data and analysis to

countries; (iv) scale-up ENTRO’s young professionals program and academic partnerships to continue

building a new set of leaders in the Eastern Nile, among others; and (v) undertake an evaluation of the

success of various pilot livelihood-based integrated watershed management interventions conducted by

ENTRO, to inform riparian-led scale up of select best and most viable practices, as well as training of

practitioners on lessons learned.

34. The AF2 is expected to be used for technical assistance, upstream analytical work, capacity

building and dialogue activities, and is not expected to be used for any additional feasibility studies for

potential multi-purpose investments.

35. A summary of the proposed changes is presented in the datasheet below.

11

Summary of Proposed Changes

The proposed US$8.5 million second additional financing AF2 will maintain the PDO and implementation

structure of the parent project, and increase the scope of the existing components to scale up the development

effectiveness of the project by supporting additional activities. The Project Paper also seeks the approval for (i)

extending the closing date of the project to November 30, 2020; and (ii) revising the results framework to

capture the full scope of the project, and adjusting related parameters, like components and costs, disbursement

estimates, implementation schedule.

Change in Implementing Agency Yes [ ] No [ X ]

Change in Project's Development Objectives Yes [ ] No [ X ]

Change in Results Framework Yes [ X ] No [ ]

Change in Safeguard Policies Triggered Yes [ ] No [ X ]

Change of EA category Yes [ ] No [ X ]

Other Changes to Safeguards Yes [ ] No [ X ]

Change in Legal Covenants Yes [ ] No [ X ]

Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Yes [ X ] No [ ]

Cancellations Proposed Yes [ ] No [ X ]

Change in Disbursement Arrangements Yes [ ] No [ X ]

Reallocation between Disbursement Categories Yes [ ] No [ X ]

Change in Disbursement Estimates Yes [ X ] No [ ]

Change to Components and Cost Yes [ X ] No [ ]

Change in Institutional Arrangements Yes [ ] No [ X ]

Change in Financial Management Yes [ ] No [ X ]

Change in Procurement Yes [ X ] No [ ]

Change in Implementation Schedule Yes [ X ] No [ ]

Development Objective/Results PHHHDO

Project’s Development Objectives

Original PDO

The development objective for the proposed project is to facilitate cooperative water resource management and

development in the Nile Basin.

Change in Results Framework PHHCRF

Explanation:

The results framework is revised to reflect additional achievements enabled by the AF2, through increased

targets for existing indicators. In addition, a new indicator is being added at the PDO-level, to measure the

increase in cooperation between the countries that can be partly or fully attributed to the project, as reflected in

12

official meeting minutes of the Nile Council of Ministers or their Technical Advisory Committee.

The restructuring will include scaling back of two intermediate result indicator targets related to gender, as

they were set too high at the time of project design and some elements are outside the control of the project. In

addition, one target related to the “hectares of watershed improved through the project” will be lowered by 17

percent, as this target was also set too high at the outset of the project. These changes to the results framework

at the intermediate outcome level are not expected to affect the overall achievement of results at the PDO

level.

Risk PHHHRISKS

Risk Category Rating (H, S, M, L)

1. Political and Governance High

2. Macroeconomic Moderate

3. Sector Strategies and Policies Substantial

4. Technical Design of Project or Program Moderate

5. Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability Substantial

6. Fiduciary Substantial

7. Environment and Social Moderate

8. Stakeholders Substantial

9. Other

OVERALL Substantial

Finance

Loan Closing Date - Additional Financing ( Nile Cooperation for Results Project

(NCORE) - Additional Financing 2 - P162304 )

Source of Funds Proposed Additional Financing Loan Closing Date

Cooperation in International Waters in Africa 30-Nov-2020

Loan Closing Date(s) - Parent ( AFCC2/RI-Nile Cooperation for Results Project -

P130694 )

PHHCLCD

Explanation:

To allow for continued implementation of project.

Ln/Cr/TF Status Original Closing

Date

Current Closing

Date

Proposed

Closing Date

Previous Closing

Date(s)

TF-13766 Closed 31-Dec-2014 31-Dec-2014 31-Jul-2015

TF-13767 Effective 31-Dec-2015 30-Apr-2017 30-Nov-2020 31-Dec-2015,

30-Apr-2017

Change in Disbursement

Estimates

(including all sources of Financing)PHHCDE

Explanation:

13

Disbursement projections have been added for fiscal years 2018 through 2021 to reflect the new financing

being added to the project.

Expected Disbursements (in USD Million)(including all Sources of Financing)

Fiscal Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Annual 1.63 2.00 1.50 1.50 2.01

Cumulative 32.46 34.46 35.96 37.46 39.47

Allocations - Additional Financing ( Nile Cooperation for Results Project (NCORE) -

Additional Financing 2 - P162304 )

Source of

Fund Currency

Category of

Expenditure

Allocation Disbursement %(Type

Total)

Proposed Proposed

CIWA USD

(1) Goods, non-

consulting services,

consultants’ services,

Training, and Operating

Costs under Part 1 of the

Project

2,000,000.00 100.00

CIWA USD

(2) Goods, non-





Project

3,100,000.00 100.00

CIWA USD

(3) Goods, non-





Project

3,400,000.00 100.00

CIWA USD Unallocated 0.00 0.00

Total: 8,500,000.00

Components

Change to Components and Cost

Explanation:

Additional funding is being added to Components 1, 2, and 3 to allow for new activities. Funding reflected

below is for grant TF167367 from the CIWA Trust Fund only, as the portion of the project financed by the

Nile Basin Trust Fund has already closed.

US$250,000 of the US$300,000 unallocated category was preliminarily allotted to Component 3 for activities

at ENTRO through an Aide Memoire in 2016. Through this Additional Financing, this reallocation is being

14

formalized.

There are no changes to the Project Description for Part A included in the Amendment to the Grant Agreement

for the project, because the Project Description in the existing grant agreement is sufficiently broad to include

the new activities proposed in this Additional Financing paper. However, text is being added to the Project

Description for Part B of the project in the Amendment to the Grant Agreement in order to include the new

proposed activities described in this paper, namely “activities to promote cooperative development and

management of the Nile Basin water resources in the project area.” For the Project Description for Part C of

the project, the words “environmental and social” have been deleted from the grant agreement through the

amendment, as the trainings provided through the project are being offered to a range of specialist, not

exclusively to environmental and social specialists.

Current Component Name Proposed Component Name

Current

Cost

(US$M)

Propose

d Cost

(US$M)

Action

1. Advancing Nile Basin-Wide

Cooperation and Analysis

1. Advancing Nile Basin-Wide

Cooperation and Analysis 1.60 3.60 Revised

2. Promotion of Sustainable

Development and Planning in the

Nile Equatorial Lakes Region



Nile Equatorial Lakes Region

11.60 14.70 Revised



Eastern Nile Region



Eastern Nile Region

1.00 4.65 Revised

Unallocated Unallocated 0.30 0.05 Revised

Total: 15.30 23.00

Change in Procurement PH

Explanation:

Minor changes will be made to the procurement arrangements, to apply updated procurement prior review

thresholds and to use the Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement. The project will continue to

carry out procurement in accordance with the World Bank’s “Guidelines: (i) Procurement of Goods, Works,

and Non-Consulting Services under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits & Grants by World Bank Borrowers” dated

January 2011 and revised July 2014; “(ii) Selection and Employment of Consultants under IBRD Loans and

IDA Credits & Grants by World Bank Borrowers” dated January 2011 and revised July 2014. The project has

received a waiver from the requirement to implement the new procurement framework, pursuant to paragraph

3, Section VI of the World Bank Directive “Procurement in IPF and Other Operational Procurement Matters”

and pursuant to the instructions set out in Section III - Scope, - I. Procurement During IPF Preparation - C.

Additional Financing of the World Bank Procedure “Procurement in IPF and Other Operational Procurement

Matters.”

Change in Implementation Schedule PHHCI

Explanation:

The closing date is being extended until November 30, 2020 to allow NBI to undertake additional activities to

scale-up the development effectiveness of the project.

15

Appraisal Summary

Economic and Financial Analysis PHHASEFA

Explanation:

The AF2 is justified from an economic and financial perspective in terms of the project’s development impact,

public sector provision of these services, and the World Bank’s value added. Further, the activities to be

supported through the AF2 support the World Bank’s goals of ending extreme poverty and promoting shared

prosperity.

Development Impact. Earlier support provided through the project has helped the countries to, through the

NBI’s leadership, establish a foundation of shared tools and analysis, regional institutional frameworks, and

joint investment prioritization and coordinated preparation. The economic and financial significance of the

development impact stemming from country collaboration at basin and sub-basin scales cannot be understated,

as far greater costs can be incurred as a result of non-cooperation. However, the true development impact of

these results will be harnessed in the longer-term, and is contingent upon countries mobilizing these

foundational elements for regional collaboration as they advance slower moving investment targets at regional,

national, and local levels. While the NBI has already collaboratively advanced US$1.5 billion of investment

projects in power transmission and interconnection, water storage, agriculture and flood forecasting, which are

currently under implementation, and currently has over US$4.5 billion of additional investments under

preparation, these are only a starting point to addressing East Africa’s development and climate resilience

investment needs. At this stage, dedicated additional support to consolidate NCORE results -- for example by

compiling NBI tools and providing access through a single web portal ---and mainstream regional planning

and coordination into national and sub-national development processes -- by helping establish inter-sector

coordination mechanisms within countries, and strengthening their working partnerships with the NBI --can

provide significant economic and financial returns by ensuring long term sustainability of already achieved

outcomes.

While the actual rates of return of the AF2 activities are challenging to calculate given the longitudinal nature

of the project’s outcomes, a “no-support” scenario, in which the NCORE project is closed in 2017, risks

countries diverging from a path of coordinated development due to insufficient country capacity to understand

or adopt NBI services. The consequences could be formidable, including possible proliferation of

uncoordinated water resources development in the basin and advancing of high-stakes unilateral projects that

could lead to deterioration of economic and livelihood conditions for poorer populations in the basin, increased

environmental and social risks under a changing climate, and fueling of transboundary conflict beyond the

water sector. For instance, for the driest of all possible hydropower projections, there could be losses of 60

percent (or up to US$13.2 billion) of hydropower revenues in the NEL Region and over 30 percent (US$7

billion) in the Eastern Nile. Planning for potential hydropower impacts and establishing cooperative

mechanisms to respond to climate change can help reduce these impacts. The costs associated with an

illustrative no-support scenario provide a reason to support the AF2 activities.3

Additionally, the World Bank has identified the need for more work to prepare infrastructure projects in the

region, and notes that public expenditure for infrastructure in Africa in absolute terms is low compared to other

regions. To ensure application of the investment planning tools that the NBI has developed and improve

overall country coordination in investment planning and implementation, the AF2 will support a number of

activities around establishing a new Nile Equatorial Lakes Investment Program and building country and

NELSAP-CU capacity for resource mobilization. These activities will help countries further institutionalize a

3 Cervigni, Raffaello, Rikard Liden, James E. Neumann, and Kenneth M. Strzepek. 2015. Enhancing the Climate Resilience

of Africa’s Infrastructure: The Power and Water Sectors. Africa Development Forum series. Washington, DC: World Bank.

16

cooperative investment planning approach and translate their prepared investments into development projects.

While there is no numerical estimate to the benefits that can be achieved through this cooperation, one

estimate of the benefits derived from coordination of irrigation and hydropower across the basin are US$4.943

billion annually, compared to the low level of cooperation in 2005. This does not include benefits arising

from the coordination of delivery of water, flood control, navigation or other benefits, which would increase

this amount4. The NCORE project cannot claim to advance cooperation to the level needed for this type of

achievement; but it does aim to help the countries better understand where more cooperation is needed, and to

engage in more cooperative planning of investments.

Public Sector Provision of Services. Public sector provision of the services provided through this AF2 is also

justified. In many cases, the knowledge and information services provided through the project are global and

regional public goods. The AF2 activities will support further development of knowledge base and information

systems in the basin. The seasonal and daily flood forecasts are expected to be used by government and

international efforts to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of disaster risk planning and response efforts.

Similarly, the real time hydromet data and monthly evapotranspiration reports provided are expected to be

applied by a wide range of agencies across water-related sectors, thereby generating economic and financial

benefits. A recent survey of the benefit cost ratio of improvements to the hydromet networks in developing

countries found that returns on such investments ranged from 2:1 to 5:1.5 The need to monitor and understand

changes in hydrology will be more critical with climate change. Additionally, the activities funded by the AF2

will further the project’s contribution to building long-term professional capacity in the basin, and creating and

maintaining networks of water professionals throughout the region.

Public execution of this work is also warranted given the NBI’s unique position in the region. The NBI was

created through negotiation between the countries, and exchange of data and information has also been

carefully negotiated and agreed upon, thus reducing the historic mistrust between the governments. The NBI

is the regional Nile entity with the most comprehensive agreements for data sharing and joint modelling tools

agreed by its active members, and has working partnerships with water ministries across all active member

countries. Given the aims of the AF2 to strengthen inter-sectoral coordination mechanisms and improve

country capacity to utilize NBI services, successful implementation will rely on an established basin-wide

network among country governments and a high level of trust and confidence, making the entry costs for

another actor to undertake this work prohibitively high. The use of a public regional mechanism to implement

this work is more efficient than undertaking this work at the national level because of economies of scale.

Further, the NBI regional offices are able to pool national and local information, providing better access to

regional information and analysis than would be available if the work were undertaken at the national level.

World Bank’ Added Value. The World Bank’s added value in financing this project comes through its

convening power, as well as its long-standing experience with regional water management and development.

For over 15 years, the World Bank led a consortium of donors (ten of whom contributed to the NBTF and

seven of which coordinated their activities in parallel; and six of whom continue to contribute through CIWA)

in their support for regional activities on the Nile. The use of a pooled mechanism has provided medium-term

predictability of resource availability necessary for phased delivery of support that allows deepening of

development impact by building on successes of earlier stages, while ensuring efficiency in design and

implementation of the program.

4 Whittington, Dale; Xun Wu, and Claudia Sadoff, 2005. “Water Resources Management in the Nile Basin: The Economic

Value of Cooperation. Water Policy 7, Pages 227-252. 5 World Meteorological Organization. Valuing Weather and Climate: Economic Assessment of Meteorological and

Hydrological Services. 2015m

17

Alignment with World Bank Goals. The AF2 supports the World Bank’s goals of ending extreme poverty and

increasing shared prosperity. Many of the NBI’s activities in this project have a focus on poverty reduction

and income generation. For example, the AF2 will extend flood modeling and warning coverage to support

unserved, high risk areas, which include border regions in Ethiopia and South Sudan characterized by high

levels of poverty and fragility, contributing to climate change adaptation and reducing risk of conflict.

Similarly the multipurpose projects prepared by NELSAP-CU which will be made bankable and advance

resource mobilization with AF2 support will bring benefits to populations with high levels of poverty in

Tanzania and Uganda. Analysis of poverty and focus on economic and livelihood improvement are central to

the design of investments supported by the NCORE project, and will be applied to the investment prioritization

process for the Nile Equatorial Lakes Investment Program supported by the AF2.

Technical Analysis PHHASTA

Explanation:

Given that the new activities being added to the project are similar to the activities already being undertaken,

there are no major changes to the previous technical appraisal. In order to ensure that AF2 activities are well-

targeted, areas for AF2 intervention have been identified by countries as priorities through a variety of

consultative processes at the NBI (NBI’s Strategic Planning workshop with their Technical Advisory

Committee (TAC); the ENTRO MSIOA consultations6, etc.), and have been selected for inclusion because of

linkages to on-going or projected key basin challenges. By supporting NBI in the execution of its expanded

mandate, the AF2 is also well positioned to help countries better understand the opportunities to overcome key

hydro-related challenges in the basin.

AF2 activities have also been chosen to focus on “last-mile connectivity,” where a small intervention can

leverage large results. The knowledge base and analytical tools that have been developed under various NBI

programs, and which are being updated and extended under NCORE, need to be consolidated and made more

accessible to stakeholders. NCORE AF2 activities have been designed to provide information and support

directly to decision makers, to maximize AF2 impact. The NBI and basin countries need additional capacity

for strategic communication and resource mobilization for investments prepared under the NCORE project, as

well as facilitation and support to institutionalize collaborative investment planning through a sub-basin

investment plan in the Nile Equatorial Lakes region. By strengthening cross-sectoral coordination at regional

and national levels, AF2 will ensure sustainability of the outcomes stemming from the past decade and a half

of support to the NBI.

The AF2 will be used to increase the sustainability of NCORE support, by further advancing NBI institutional

sustainability. The NBI’s “core costs” are defined in its Financial Strategy as those needed to operate its basic

programs and sustain the most important capacities, systems, and knowledge; these include expenses such as

maintenance of critical staff, minimum office running costs, governance, coordination and donor liaison

meetings, external audits, and NBI key reports and services. While Nile-SEC7 and ENTRO have received

country contributions, fees for services, and other measures to ensure their financial solvency, NELSAP-CU is

not yet financially solvent. To help close this financing gap, NELCOM decided in October 2016 that

NELSAP-CU will begin receiving payments from countries as fees on investment projects prepared by

6 Minutes of consultation meetings have been recorded by the Nile Basin Initiative.

7 Nile-SEC has an established “reserve fund,” which it uses to cover cash flow deficiencies when receipts of contributions

from countries are delayed, and to cover the contribution of countries that are unable to pay their annual contributions to the

Nile-SEC. To prevent the complete depletion of its “reserve fund,” the Nile-SEC plans to propose to its governance an

updated structure for the institution to correspond with its new strategic plan, as well as to agree on alternate sources of

income to off-set the countries that are not contributing to its annual budget.

18

NELSAP-CU, once the project enters implementation. This is seen as an important commitment by the

governments to ensure NELSAP-CU institutional sustainability. Further, the Project Appraisal Document for

the NCORE project specifies the need for financial solvency at all three centers before a second additional

financing or any future support from the CIWA Trust Fund can be provided. The project team will closely

monitor compliance with NELCOM’s decision and NELSAP-CU’s financial situation through project

supervision. Additionally, the AF2 will also support a process to review and strengthen the NBI’s financial

strategy, to work towards more sustainable financing mechanisms. Finally, through the project support, the

NBI will help its member countries explore the possibility of pursuing a regional program with the World

Bank financed by IDA.

Project readiness. The NBI centers have developed draft work plans for the new proposed activities and are

advancing the development of needed terms of reference, so that AF2 activities can begin shortly after project

approval.

Financial management (FM). No financial report and audit reports are overdue. The audit report opinion is

unqualified. The project FM performance has been satisfactory. Under the project, the Nile-Secretariat will be

upgrading its SUN accounting system to further strengthen FM systems.

Social Analysis PHHASSA

Explanation:

The NCORE parent project is designed to complement ongoing NBI operations and assist in the identification

of possible future investments through feasibility studies of potential water resources mobilization related

investments. Therefore, no physical investments (such as civil works) are included for financing. Instead

preparation studies and provision of technical assistance are envisaged.

The current NCORE project involves the study and preparation of potential future investments, including

reviews of the environmental and social impacts and as such, an Environmental and Social Management

Framework (ESMF) containing an environmental and social screening tool was prepared and disclosed in July

2012 by all three NBI organizations. An updated version was disclosed in March 2014. Resettlement Process

Frameworks have been prepared and disclosed for Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda in March

2014. A Vulnerable and Marginalized Groups Framework for Kenya was also disclosed in May 2014. All of

the instrument were re-disclosed by the World Bank in March 2017 under the project number of the Additional

Financing, for ease of reference.

Sites of possible future investments being studied to feasibility study and design level through this project have

been identified based on a screening process and relevant criteria include: the Sio-Sango River in Kenya; the

Mara Valley and Ngono project sites in Tanzania; and the Kabayanda project site in Uganda. A Feasibility

study was being undertaken for the Ruvironza project site in Burundi, but the work was discontinued for

reasons unrelated to the project.

Given the multi-purpose nature of the above investments being considered, there is a potential for adverse

environmental and social impacts if they be pursued and implemented. Should the screening results indicate

the possibility of any planned investments leading to issues of water pollution, ecosystem damage, land

acquisition, loss of livelihoods, and the presence of indigenous populations the project will be required to

prepare relevant safeguard instruments such as Environmental and Social Impact Assessments (ESIAs),

Resettlement Action Plans (RAPs), Indigenous Peoples Plans (IPPs), Process Frameworks (PFs), and any other

relevant instruments. ESIAs and RAPs are being prepared for the possible future investments being studied to

feasibility study and design level.

19

The project will continue ensuring that the pre-feasibility, feasibility and other preparation studies undertaken

by the project consider the lessons learned from projects in the context of basin-wide conditions. Particularly,

the NBI decision to adopt a set of selection criteria, including avoiding areas of global significance, or

territories occupied by indigenous communities, or sites with cultural or historical artifacts, indicates

sensitivities to Bank safeguards concerns. Moreover, the following actions will be undertaken to ensure that

environmental and social impacts are considered in the preparation of potential activities.

These include: (i) enhancement of the NBI databases to include gender-disaggregated and site-specific

information on vulnerable communities and environmentally sensitive areas where possible; (ii) development

of terms of reference for the studies that include specified activities for addressing environmental and social

vulnerability and mitigation responses that will be applicable even at the community level, including

cumulative impacts; (iii) provisions for a separate program to support the NBD and strengthen the role of civil

society groups and support women’ entrepreneurship, by providing more effective consultative and

participatory processes; and (iv) provisions for capacity building, including past and future training for NBI

officers and governments, and hiring of additional environment specialists in the NBI institutions as needed.

Environmental Analysis

Explanation:

Please see Social section above.

Risk

Explanation:

The overall risk of the project is rated Substantial. Due to political realities in the basin, including high-stakes

hydropolitics in the Eastern Nile, there is high risk that unfavorable political developments could adversely

impact the NBI and the project. Additionally, this political risk is reflected in the indicators for Institutional

Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability, for Stakeholders’ risks, and for Sector Strategies and Policies,

which are rated substantial. While the NBI currently has adequate capacity to undertake the project, there is a

risk that the NBI could be unable to retain or attract qualified staff or that key stakeholders will be unable to

participate because of the politics surrounding the Nile, affecting project implementation. Further, if political

tensions are high, there is less of a likelihood that Sector Strategies and Policies will reflect regional

considerations.

The World Bank and the Nile Basin Initiative have worked together to determine alternate implementation

modalities within the existing implementation structure, in case political discussions affect project

implementation.

While the risks related to hydropolitics outlined above could be considered to be vis major and outside the

control of the project, the project has been designed with flexibility to respond to these risks, should they

materialize. Specifically, the activities proposed in this AF2 focus on advancing technical cooperation, instead

of political considerations. The proposed results and activities are in areas of technical interest to NBI member

governments, irrespective of the political environment. Because the political environment may influence

project activities, the World Bank will continue to be vigilant in following political relations in the region.

Importantly, the World Bank team will continue to coordinate closely with country offices of the World Bank

and with other development partners who are engaged in efforts to advance Nile cooperation, with the teams of

other related projects, and with the respective CMUs.

The risk of Technical Design of Project is considered moderate because of issues faced by NELSAP-CU

around the quality of deliverables from one of its contractors working on the preparation of new investment

projects. The Bank team, in coordination with NELSAP-CU, will continue to closely supervise this work to

20

ensure quality control. If not for the investment preparation on-going in the parent project, the risk of technical

design of the project would be considered low.

There is also a substantial risk to the financial sustainability of the NBI. The NBI has been undertaking a

number of measures to increase its financial sustainability, so that it is not reliant on donors for its core

institutional funding. While two of the three NBI centers have received country contributions, fees for

services and employed other measures to ensure their financial solvency, NELSAP-CU has not been able to

put enough measures in place to cover its core institutional costs. To remedy this problem, the NEL-COM

took a decision in October 2016 that countries should begin paying a fee on investment projects prepared by

NELSAP-CU, once the project enters implementation. In order to see that this decision is implemented and to

mitigate the risk that NELSAP-CU will not be financially sustainable, the Project team will continue to

monitor compliance with this decision through project supervision. In addition, through the project activities,

the NBI will be revising its financing strategy, to work with countries to find new ways to further reduce donor

dependence.

V. World Bank Grievance Redress

1. Communities and individuals who believe that they are adversely affected by a World Bank

(WB) supported project may submit complaints to existing project-level grievance redress mechanisms

or the WB’s Grievance Redress Service (GRS). The GRS ensures that complaints received are promptly

reviewed in order to address project-related concerns. Project affected communities and individuals may

submit their complaint to the WB’s independent Inspection Panel which determines whether harm

occurred, or could occur, as a result of WB non-compliance with its policies and procedures. Complaints

may be submitted at any time after concerns have been brought directly to the World Bank's attention,

and Bank Management has been given an opportunity to respond. For information on how to submit

complaints to the World Bank’s corporate Grievance Redress Service (GRS), please visit

http://www.worldbank.org/GRS. For information on how to submit complaints to the World Bank

Inspection Panel, please visit www.inspectionpanel.org.

http://www.worldbank.org/GRS

http://www.inspectionpanel.org/

21

ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK

Project Development Objectives

Original Project Development Objective - Parent:

The development objective for the proposed project is to facilitate cooperative water resource management and development in the Nile Basin.

Proposed Project Development Objective - Additional Financing (AF):

Results

Core sector indicators are considered: Yes Results reporting level: Project Level

Project Development Objective Indicators

Status Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure Baseline Actual(Current) End Target

Revised Percentage of key stakeholders

who rate NBI services associated

with this project to promote

regional cooperation as

"satisfactory" or higher

Percentage Value 0.00 91.00 80.00

Date 01-Jan-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020

Comment

Revised Percentage of users of publically

available NBI tools, data, or

analysis associated with this

project who rate services as

"satisfactory" or higher


Date 01-Jan-2013 09-Nov-2016 31-Dec-2020

Comment

Revised Value (USD) of potential

investment opportunities for

regional water resource

management or development

advanced under this project

Amount(USD) Value 0.00 3300000000.00 3400000000.00

Date 01-Jan-2013 09-Nov-2016 31-Dec-2020

Comment

Revised Number of projected beneficiaries

from work influenced by this

project (including investments to

be implemented in future)

Number Value 0.00 6311301.00 7500000.00

Date 01-Jan-2013 09-Nov-2016 31-Dec-2020

Comment

22

Revised Number of people trained on

trans-boundary issues

Number Value 0.00 2271.00 2600.00

Date 01-Jan-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020

Comment

Revised Direct project beneficiaries

Number Value 0.00 6311301.00 6500000.00

Date 01-Jan-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020

Comment

Revised Female beneficiaries


Sub Type

Supplemental

New Number of cooperative decisions

whose agreement is facilitated by

this project

Number Value 0.00 68.00 74.00

Date 31-Jul-2012 31-Dec-2016 30-Nov-2020

Comment

Intermediate Results Indicators

Status Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure Baseline Actual(Current) End Target

Revised Sub-component 1: Number of

major regional fora for dialogue

between key stakeholders

facilitated

Number Value 0.00 41.00 51.00

Date 01-Jan-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020

Comment

Revised Number of major national fora for

dialogue between key stakeholders

facilitated

Number Value 0.00 40.00 68.00

Sub Type

Supplemental

Revised Sub-component 1: Nile-SEC:

Number of Nile Basin tools, data

and knowledge products made

available

Number Value 0.00 44.00 60.00

Date 01-Jan-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020

Comment

Revised Number of Nile Basin tools, data

and knowledge products of which

are public

Number Value 0.00 24.00 38.00

Sub Type Date 01-Jan-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020

Breakdown Comment

23

Revised Sub-component 1b: Establishment

of Water Resources Database at

the Water Ministry in South

Sudan

Yes/No Value No Yes Yes

Date 06-Feb-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020

Comment

Revised Sub-component 1b: Number of

registered users of DSS user

community

Number Value 0.00 170.00 210.00

Date 01-Mar-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020

Comment

Revised Sub-component 2a: NELSAP-CU:

Number of identified investment

projects in power and water

resource development approved

for preparation by NELTAC

Number Value 0.00 42.00 62.00

Date 01-Jan-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020

Comment

Revised Sub-component 2a: NELSAP-CU:

Number of knowledge products on

priority sub-basin issues

disseminated to key stakeholders

Number Value 0.00 56.00 71.00

Date 01-Jan-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020

Comment

Revised Sub-component 2b: NELSAP-CU:

Number of investment projects

undergoing major study through

this project

Number Value 0.00 8.00 8.00

Date 01-Jan-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020

Comment

Revised Percentage of which includes

analysis related to gender


Sub Type

Supplemental

Revised Sub-component 3a: ENTRO:

Improved Eastern Nile regional

flood and drought forecasting

system made operational


Date 01-Jan-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020

Comment

Revised Sub-component 3a: ENTRO:

Number of website hits to

improved ENTRO knowledge

products and analytical tools

Number Value 7000.00 33365.00 40000.00

Date 01-Jan-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020

Comment

Revised Sub-component 3b: ENTRO:


24

Percentage of trainees who

considered that the training will

contribute to their work

Date 01-Jan-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020

Comment

Revised Sub-component 3b: ENTRO: Dam

safety framework and guideline

made available


Date 01-Jan-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020

Comment

Revised Sub-component 3b: ENTRO:

hectares of watershed management

influenced by ENTRO services

Hectare(Ha) Value 185000.00 1590213.00 1824921.00

Date 01-Jan-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020

Comment

Revised Sub-component 3a: Availability of

real-time information and

forecasts for improved flood

management in South Sudan

Text Value None Flood Forecast

Model developed

for BAS in

Gambella

floodplains;

initiated for BAS in

Pibor Catchment;

flood forecast

report produced for

BAS

Flood forecasting

system active for

South Sudan

Date 01-Mar-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020

Comment

Revised Sub-component 3b: Technical

capacity for dam safety increased

in the Eastern Nile

Text Value 0 135 specialists

trained on Dam

Safety

Management;

Potential Failure

Mode Analysis

conducted on 7

dams (5 in

Ethiopia, 2 in

Sudan)

195 specialists

trained; Potential

Failure Mode

Analysis training

conducted for 7

dams

Date 01-Mar-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020

25

Comment

Revised Sub-component 3b: Number of

water related investment projects

influenced by project

Number Value 0.00 14.00 19.00

Date 01-Mar-2013 09-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2020

Comment

26

TABLE 2. REVISED RESULTS FRAMEWORK, WITH ANNUAL TARGETS

PDO Level Results Indicators

Unit of Measurem

ent

Baseline Progress To

Date -

Targets

Data Source/

Original Project

2016 Methodology

Start -

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

PDO1. Percentage of key stakeholders who rate NBI services associated with this project to promote regional cooperation as “satisfactory” or higher

Percentage

0 91 30 50 60 70 70 75 75 80 Survey conducted by

NBI centers

PDO2. Percentage of users of publically available NBI tools, data, or analysis associated with this project who rate services as “satisfactory” or higher8

Percentage

0 71.5 30 45 60 65 65 70 70 75

Survey to be administered on website; forum

surveys

PDO3. Value (USD) of potential investment opportunities for regional water resource management or development advanced under this project

Amount (USD)

0 3,300,000 0 1,610,000 1,910,000 2,800,000 3,000,000 3,350,000 3,400,000 3,400,000

Project documents (identification, pre-feasibility studies,

etc.)

PDO4. Regional Capacity to Engage on Transboundary Issues Strengthened (Number of people trained on transboundary issues

Number –

0 2271

2,350 2,500 2,600 Training records

a. SEC a. 100 a. 200 a. 200 a. 300 300

b. NELSAP-CU

b. 260 b. 450 b. 500 b. 525 550

c. ENTRO c. 116 c. 281 c. 300 c. 320 340

8 This indicator reflects citizen engagement.

27

PDO Level Results Indicators

Unit of Measurem

ent


Date -

Targets

Data Source/

Original Project

2016 Methodology

Start -

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

PDO5. Direct project beneficiaries (percentage of which are female)

Number 0

36,081 2,750 4,450 4,700 5,060 5,260 45,000 55,000 65,000 Survey to be administered on website; forum surveys Percentage 18% 10% 15% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18%

PDO6. Number of projected beneficiaries from work influenced by this project (including investments to be implemented in future)

Number

0 6,311,301 570,000 821,200 1,008,400 1,008,400 1,008,400 6,500,000 7,000,000 7,500,000

Project documents (identification, pre-feasibility studies, etc.)

PDO7. Number of cooperative decisions whose agreement is facilitated by this project9

Number

0

6810

70 72 74 TAC and COM Minutes

9 “Cooperative decisions” are any recorded decisions in minutes of governance meetings – at either TAC or COM levels- to undertake new work. This can

include the decision to undertake new analysis, investment preparation, development or dialogue process. “Facilitated by this project” implies that the NCORE

financing has in some way contributed to the decision to pursue new activities, through analysis, project identification or preparation, or through dialogue. 10

While progress for this indicator has not been previously reported, as it is a new indicator, the NBI has now determined that from the start of the project until

December 2016, 68 cooperative decisions have been facilitated by this project.

28


Unit of Measurem

ent


Date -

Target Values (cumulative)

Data Source/

Original Project

2016 Methodology

Start -

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Component 1a1: Number of major fora for regional/national dialogue between key stakeholders facilitated (regional/national)

Number 0 41/40 4/10 9/20 13/30 20/40 27/50 46/63 50/66 51/68 NBI Calendar

Component 1a2: Number of Nile Basin tools, data and knowledge products made available /(of which public)

Number 0 42/27 4/2 10/6 24/16 32/20 44/24 50/30 55/34 60/38 Web availability, records of report dissemination

Component 1b1: Establishment of Water Resources Database at the Water Ministry in South Sudan

Yes/No No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Assessment at MWRI- Republic of South Sudan, Project Reports

Component 1b2: Number of registered users of DSS user community

Number 0 170 75 80 120 150 170 190 210 210 Web statistics

Sub-component 2a1: NELSAP-CU: Number of identified investment projects in power and water resource development approved for preparation by NELTAC

Number 0 42 10 10 12 14 16 58 60 62 NELTAC minutes

Sub-component 2a2: NELSAP-CU: Number of knowledge products on priority sub-basin issues

Number 0 56 8 16 20 24 30 69 70 71 Website

29


Unit of Measurem

ent


Date -


Data Source/

Original Project

2016 Methodology

Start -

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

disseminated to key stakeholders

Sub-component 2b1: NELSAP-CU: Number of investment projects undergoing major study through this project (Percentage of which includes analysis related to gender)

Number

0 (0%) 8 (75%) 0 2 (100%)

2 8 8 8 8 8 Project Reports

Percentage 100% 100% 100% 75% 75% 75%

Sub-component 3a1: ENTRO: Improved Eastern Nile regional flood and drought forecasting system made operational

Yes/No No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes M&E reports

Sub-component 3a2: Availability of real-time information and forecasts for improved flood management in South Sudan

Custom None

Flood Forecast Model

developed for BAS in

Gambella floodplains; initiated for BAS in Pibor Catchment;

flood forecast report

produced for BAS

Flood forecasting

system initiated for

South Sudan

Flood forecasti

ng system active and

information

available for South

Sudan

Flood forecasting system

active and informatio

n available for South

Sudan




Sudan




Sudan




Sudan


active and informati

on available for South

Sudan

Flood forecasting

system active and information available for South

Sudan

Project Reports, website

Sub-component 3a3: ENTRO: Number of hits to improved ENTRO knowledge products and

Number 0 33,365 1000 6000 6000 7000 8000 35,000 37,500 40,000 Website, app, other user statistics

30


Unit of Measurem

ent


Date -


Data Source/

Original Project

2016 Methodology

Start -

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

analytical tools

Sub-component 3b1: ENTRO: Percentage of trainees who considered that the training will contribute to their work

Percentage 0 94 50 75 75 75 75 80 85 85 Survey

Sub-component 3b2: ENTRO: Dam safety framework and guideline made available

Yes/No No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes ENTRO website release

Sub-component 3b3: Technical capacity for dam safety increased in the Eastern Nile

Custom 0

135 specialists trained on Dam Safety

Management; Potential

Failure Mode Analysis

conducted on 7 dams (5 in Ethiopia, 2 in

Sudan)

21 specialists trained in

dam safety issues

60 specialist

s trained;

Potential Failure Mode

Analysis training

conducted for 5 dams

60 specialists trained; Potential Failure Mode

Analysis training



Analysis training



Analysis training



Analysis training


175 specialists

trained; Potential Failure Mode

Analysis training


195 specialists

trained; Potential Failure Mode

Analysis training


Training records

Sub-component 3b4: Number of water related investment projects influenced by project

Number 0 14 4 6 10 10 10 19 19 19 ENTRO reporting

Sub-component 3b5: ENTRO: hectares of watershed management influenced by ENTRO services

Hectare (Ha)

185,000 1,590,213 985,000 1,485,00

0 2,195,000 2,195,000 2,195,000 1,824,921 1,824,921 1,824,921 ENTRO reporting

31

ANNEX 2. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF MODIFIED OR NEW ACTIVITIES

1. The NBI has advanced cooperation between the Nile countries in several areas with the support of the

NCORE project, which will be further promoted under this AF2. With NCORE and other World Bank and donor

support, the NBI has developed state of the art tools, with which it has created new knowledge about the basin,

including improved understanding of basin potentials, risks and vulnerabilities, and opportunities to reduce these

risks through cooperation. The NBI has provided analysis to its countries, to highlight where increased

cooperation is needed, and has mapped out areas of predicted future water stress based on current national

development plans. With increased awareness of the importance of joint planning, demand for NBI services is

growing. Countries are making new requests for NBI analysis at the national and regional levels, and with NBI

tools being applied in water resources planning work by national and sub-basin agencies. To support this growing

demand, the NCORE support will allow the NBI and its active member countries to begin to more systematically

apply NBI tools and analysis in their policy making and investment planning. In addition, the NCORE AF2

support will allow the NBI to gather new data and information in additional areas of water resource management,

to comply with new requests from its member states, and to move the countries closer to basin-wide management.

2. As noted earlier in the project paper, the proposed AF2 will build on the implementation of the parent

project and is seeking to enhance the achievement of its development objectives by extending the scope of its

three components, to include new, related activities. As is the case with many NBI activities, the three centers

will contribute to the activities of other centers where appropriate. The new activities to be financed under the

AF2 are as follows:

3. Component 1: Advancing Nile Basin-Wide Cooperation and Analysis (Nile-SEC). The AF2 will

allow the Nile countries to work within their expanded mandate, to apply tools developed under the NCORE

project to help countries better understand the opportunities to overcome key hydro-related challenges in the

basin. While the NBI has become a regional repository and is the “go-to” source for historic hydrological data on

the Nile, the recent agreement by countries to establish a regional hydromet system (based on an NCORE-funded

process and design) expands the role of the NBI into the regional authority for real-time information. In this new

role, the NBI will provide data and related analysis with the countries, will work with countries to establish a

process for the discussion of seasonal water supply forecasts and water balance bulletins. The analysis required

for these forecasts and bulletins, as well as consultations around these bulletins, will be funded by the AF2. In

addition, the NBI will provide demand- driven advisory services to the countries, including inter-ministerial

coordination committees for water, on water balance issues.

4. The AF2 will also allow the Nile countries to enhance NBI analysis, to examine the regional effects of

climate change in the Basin. So far, due to funding constraints, it has been unable to undertake analysis for

member countries at the catchment and small-watershed levels, despite requests by countries. The NCORE

support will establish a consolidated set of downscaled climate change projections for the basin, a state of the

knowledge report to inform the work of the governments, universities and other stakeholders, a series of training

workshops to develop government capacity to apply this type of hydrological analysis in planning processes, and

a climate scientists forum.

5. While the NBI resources are well used by the general public,11

many NBI resources are not available on-

line, and when they are available, users have to go to the sites of the individual NBI centers to find the appropriate

reports. The AF2 will support the establishment of an NBI-wide repository for data and reports, and will provide

easier access to these reports through an improved web-portal. This new web-portal will serve as a one-stop-shop

for real time and historic data on the Nile, as well as access to NBI, academic, and other relevant analysis on the

Nile.

11

The NBI web portal received over 169,000 visits in 2016.

32

6. The AF2 will also allow the NBI to review and work with countries to update its financial strategy. The

previous strategy, agreed by the countries in 2011, ushered in a decision to increase country contributions and to

pursue a wider range of financing, including fee for services contract. With NBI’s evolving role and with varied

rates of success, an updated financing strategy is now needed. Among the new financing mechanisms to be

considered in the new strategy is the possibility of accessing regional IDA for NBI’s work.

7. Finally, the AF2 will support activities and forums to discuss and debate Nile issues, informed by NBI

tools and analysis, and targeted trainings and workshops. It will also support communications and outreach

efforts, to help the wider public better understand critical Nile issues; and resource mobilization efforts.

8. Component 2: Promotion of Sustainable Development and Planning in the Nile Equatorial Lakes

Region (NELSAP-CU). NELSAP-CU has made significant progress in facilitating agreement between countries

to advance regionally significant investment projects. Under the NCORE project alone, analysis and briefings by

NELSAP-CU have led to agreements between the Nile Equatorial Lakes countries to advance thirty-seven new

investments. The AF2 will allow NELSAP to help its main counterparts (Ministries of Water, Energy and/or

Environment) to increase understanding of other governmental stakeholders of the importance of this regional

approach. Specifically, NELSAP-CU will help its governments engage in a cross-sectoral regional water

investment planning process, to formulate a new Investment Program for the Nile Equatorial Lakes Region. This

is expected to include compilation of national plans, consultation with line Ministries and Ministries of Finance

on their priorities, analytical work to determine any potential water resources issues emerging from these plans,

and agreement on a new regional investment plan to address the identified regional challenges, taking into

account potential climate change scenarios. The Additional Financing will also enable NELSAP-CU to support

resource mobilization efforts for the NIP, for future investment preparation and for regional analysis and dialogue.

The Additional Financing will support work to update the NELSAP-CU financing strategy, and the exploration of

a new regional program financed by IDA.

9. The AF2 will also support capacity building and analysis at the national and local government levels. The

AF2 will support NELSAP support to build country capacity in areas they have identified as critical water

resource development issues, and could include assistance in investment planning, in dam safety capacity

building, in participatory watershed management techniques, in flood and sediment monitoring, and in cross-

border catchment management along the Kagera, Sio-Malaba-Malakisi and Mara rivers, among others. The

project will also support technical analysis and support to inter-ministerial processes involving water issues, to

bring regional analysis and resources into national decision making processes.

10. While the current project already contains financing for the on-going feasibility study, design and ESIAs

of four multi-purpose investments in the NEL region, and the AF2 is not needed for this work, the extension of

closing date will provide extra time for NELSAP-CU to complete two ESIAs which were delayed due to a need to

change consultants, as well as to ensure that there is adequate time for final consultations and review of the other

studies.

11. Component 3: Promotion of Sustainable Development and Planning in the Eastern Nile Region

(ENTRO).

12. With past NCORE support for dam safety capacity building, the creation of Dam Safety Guidelines, and

university level training modules for dam safety, the Eastern Nile countries have agreed to a preliminary Dam

Safety Management Regulatory Framework and established one regional and three national dam safety offices.

NCORE AF2 support will provide further capacity building for these newly established offices, as they increase

the human capacity needed for dam safety at the national and local levels, as well as to establish a network of dam

professionals (including operators) in the sub-basin.

33

13. ENTRO has amassed a large amount of information about the basin, analytical tools and models

(including water balance, water system simulation and optimization models), and publically available information

toolkits in dam safety, irrigation, power trade and watersheds. The volume of information and resources is

increasing, especially given new NBI mandates. The NCORE AF2 will support ENTRO in collaboration with the

other centers to establish a central database, creating search features for this database, and provide access through

the internet to these resources.

14. The seasonal and daily flood forecasting work in the Eastern Nile, undertaken by ENTRO with NCORE

financing, provides Eastern Nile countries with advanced notice of riverine flooding in critical areas. The service

is relied on by national early warning committees and relief organizations. NCORE AF2 support will allow

ENTRO to expand its services into areas in the basin that have not yet been covered by their models, which are

now identified by countries as priority, to integrate additional precipitation and stream flow forecasts into its

models, and to improve its forecast-related communications. The improved streamflow and precipitation

prediction is expected to have uses beyond flood forecasting, including in agricultural planning.

15. The NCORE-supported Eastern Nile Multisector Investment Opportunity Analyses (MSIOA), as well as

other ENTRO studies, have identified the need to better understand and explore ways of conserving or otherwise

supplementing agriculture water use and enhancing its productivity. This includes understanding the limits and

potentials of ground water conjunctive use and assessing the performance of irrigated agriculture. Thus, NCORE-

AF2 will support the establishment of a regional baseline of knowledge in groundwater in the basin, the

identification of new opportunities for water savings, and the design of an enhanced hydrological monitoring

system.

16. The AF2 will enable ENTRO to continue with capacity building activities, for governments and for

emerging young Eastern Nile leaders. Through the NCORE and earlier Eastern Nile Planning Model projects,

ENTRO created a network of four core and sixteen partnering EN universities and government offices, and

sponsored over 100 young professionals to reside at its offices, to develop models and conduct strategic analysis

on regional issues with young professionals from other Eastern Nile countries. ENTRO has created a solid

network of government and young academics across the region who have developed regional perspectives on Nile

issues, and their work has increased ENTRO’s analytical capacity. In addition to gaining experience and basin

perspective, the interns have provided ENTRO with valuable services in developing analytical tools, tool kits,

models, systems management, and daily flood forecast dissemination. Appreciating these results, countries have

expressed interest in continuing the Young Interns Program. Under the AF2, ENTRO will be supporting another

round of additional young professionals to undertake work in its offices to support ENTRO AF2 results, including

to help compile the NBI-wide data and knowledge center, and to further improve their modelling tools.

17. ENTRO has piloted livelihood-based Integrated Watershed Management in the Eastern Nile, including

support to interventions in over 80,000 hectares in Ethiopia, over 60,000 hectares in Sudan, and to Lake

Nasser/Nubia Sand Dune in Egypt. In addition, regional and national capacity in Integrated Watershed

Management planning, implementation and M&E, selected watershed management technologies (e.g. gully

rehabilitation, soil and water conservation) and exposure knowledge exchange visits have been provided. Local

communities adjacent to some project areas have started adopting some watershed management introduced

practices, thus indicating a promising trend for wider adoption. Eastern Nile countries intend to scale up these

practices but the need to identify, evaluate and select best and most viable practices for scaling up throughout the

EN catchment needs to be undertaken. Eastern Nile countries thus have requested ENTRO to undertake an

evaluation of the success of various watershed management interventions, as well as training of practitioners on

lessons learned.

34

ANNEX 3. DETAILED PROJECT COSTS

Table 3. Project Financing under TF167367 (US$ million)

Component and Disbursement

Category

Approved

Project

Amount -

TF167367 only

(as of January

1, 2017)

Amount

Proposed

through AF2

Total New Project

Amount Including

AF2

-TF167367 only

Component 1: Advancing Nile

Basin-Wide Cooperation and

Analysis (Nile-SEC). (Goods,

non-consulting services,

consultants’ services, Training,

and Operating Costs under Part

1 of the Project)

1.60 2.00 3.60

Component 2: Promotion of

Sustainable Development and

Planning in the Nile

Equatorial Lakes Region

(NELSAP-CU) (Goods, non-

consulting services, consultants’

services, Training, and

Operating Costs under Part 2 of

the Project)

11.60 3.10 14.70

Component 3: Promotion of

Sustainable Development and

Planning in the Eastern Nile

Region (ENTRO) (Goods, non-

consulting services, consultants’

services, Training, and

Operating Costs under Part 3 of

the Project)

1.25 3.40 4.65

Unallocated 0.05 0.00 0.05

TOTAL AMOUNT 14.50 8.50 23.00

35

ANNEX 4. CHANGES TO IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS

18. Procurement. Minor changes will be made to the procurement arrangements, to apply updated

procurement prior review thresholds and to use the Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement.

19. Procurement guidelines applicable for the additional financing. Procurement associated with the project

activities supported through the additional financing will be carried out in accordance with the World Bank’s

‘Guidelines: (i) Procurement of Goods, Works, and Non-Consulting Services under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits

& Grants by World Bank Borrowers’ dated January 2011 and revised July 2014; (ii) Selection and Employment

of Consultants under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits & Grants by World Bank Borrowers’ dated January 2011 and

revised July 2014; and (iii) Guidelines on Preventing and Combating Fraud and Corruption in Projects Financed

by IBRD Loans and IDA Credits and Grants dated 2006 and revised in 2011 (Anti-Corruption Guidelines); and

the provisions stipulated in the Legal Agreement.

20. Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement (STEP). The project will implement STEP, a World

Bank planning and tracking system, which would provide data on procurement activities, and establish

benchmarks. The details of the procurement activities, presently prepared in the procurement plan would be

transferred in the STEP system. Training on the operation of the STEP system will be provided to officers of

Nile-SEC, NELSAP-CU and ENTRO.

21. Prior Review Thresholds. The overall risk for procurement for Nile-SEC, NELSAP-CU and ENTRO

remains as “Substantial”. The specific procurement risks identified on the implementing agencies include:

in the case of ENTRO: (a) an inadequate procurement record retrieval system; (b) inadequate

monitoring of Contract Management; (c) inadequate controls for procurement processing; and

(d) weak procurement oversight bodies at the regional level; and

in the case of NELSAP-CU: (a) lack of transparency in the selection processes; (b) lack of

elaborated procedure by which Individual Consultants are invited; (c) no advertisement,

though some services are highly professional and high value; (d) contracts are negotiated, just

by one person, the Procurement Specialist, (e) no minutes of contract negotiation; (f) there is

no manual or standard for setting professional fees of ICs; and (f) poor record keeping and

weak procurement oversight by regulatory body (the board of directors).

The Procurement Risk Management System (PRAMS) will include detailed Risk Mitigation Measures to address

the identified risks. Based on this assessed level of risk and category of procurement, the thresholds for prior

review and international advertising will be determined following the new World Bank Procedure- Procurement

in IPF and Other Operational Procurement Matters (July 1, 2016), as summarized in the table below.

Table 4. Prior Review Thresholds (≥Million US$)

Type of Procurement Substantial Risk

Works (including turnkey, supply & installation of plant and equipment, and PPP) 10

Goods, information technology and non-consulting services 2

Consultants: firms 1

Consultants: Individuals 0.3

36

22. All contracts at or above the mandatory procurement prior review thresholds are subject to international

advertising and the use of the World Bank’s Special Bidding Documents (or other documents agreed with the

World Bank).

23. For post review consultancy services, the TORs shall be cleared by the World Bank.

24. Financial Management. The Project will continue to use the financial management arrangements laid

down in the initial project. The project uses the NBI’s harmonized Finance and Administration Policy Manual

which sets out detailed FM policies and procedures. Budgets will be revised taking into account the AF2. At

ENTRO, two positions are still vacant in the finance department although the project activities are being well

managed by the existing staff. The internal audit oversight at ENTRO was weak or none. Deciding to have its

own auditor, ENTRO has finalized the recruitment of an internal auditor with experience in external audit from

the Office of Federal Auditor General. The internal auditor will include the project in the annual audit plan and

conduct audits on the project implementation transactions. Capacity buildings measures for report preparation will

be planned and conducted by the World Bank. At the Secretariat, upgrades to the SUN Accounting System

software are expected, to provide additional security for the financial management systems.

25. The project will continue to prepare and submit quarterly unaudited Interim Financial reports (IFRs)

within 45 days of end of the quarter. The project will be subject to annual audits and the audit report including the

management letter will be submitted to the World Bank within six months of the end of each fiscal year. The audit

report will be disclosed in accordance with the World Bank’s disclosure policy. It is important to note that there

are no outstanding audits or IFRs from the implementing agencies.

26. Through the supervision of this project, regular Financial Management Reviews have been conducted,

none of which have uncovered any areas of malfeasance. Based on the assessment conducted, the overall

financial management residual risk rating for the project is moderate and the recent financial management

implementation support and supervision rating was Moderately Satisfactory. It is the conclusion of the World

Bank’s FM assessment that the FM arrangements meet the World Bank’s requirements as per OP/BP 10.00. The

arrangements are adequate to provide, with reasonable assurance, accurate and timely information on the status of

the project as required by the World Bank.